Predicting The 2025 Opening Day Roster

A swingman is a guy that can be used effectively in long-relief and short-relief, Criswell hasn't been effective in short relief scenarios and honestly isn't that effective as a reliever overall. His ERA when being used just out of the bullpen this year was 7.53 with a 3.79 FIP and a 5.79 xFIP. His overall ERA for his career in relief usage is 6.27 ERA/4.88 FIP. He's a mop-up guy/emergency fifth starter.

Technically yes, but also, assuming we have a healthy rotation, his main roles are going to be in the bullpen, where he was bad in both long relief and short relief situations. I think he's proven that he can fit in as an emergency starter, but he doesn't check the box of swingman by either what I said or what you said regardless. I was also specifying how they can be used not all the scenarios they will be used... probably should have worded that better, but that doesn't change anything wrong with my actual argument.

edit: Also, if someone goes down, we can call up Fitts who has some MLB legs under him, we can call up Priester who's been up before, Dobbins could even get spot starts as could Whitlock. I'm not that concerned over keeping Criswell just in case you need him in the rotation.

Still hoping we can find a trade for Yoshida.  I know Ian and Chris mentioned on the pod they were leery we could find a taker for Masa at this point, but I love the idea of a Yoshida-Gray swap with STL. Would save them $24M in payroll over next two years, and STL has said they need to trim payroll. They already have to replace Lynn, but with Williams on the cusp of MLB (along with Graceffo and Robberse) and other cheaper options in FA market, this looks to be the biggest viable option for reducing expense while also filling a need (STL ranked near the bottom of the league in DH production last season, and is only middle of the pack in the category of LHH production).  Also, Bloom seemed to really buy into Yoshida's value, so maybe we can leverage that angle, too.  Not only would that address our need for SP, it would open up a spot for a more versatile part-time DH who could also be depth for / platoon with Casas (we know how much depth killed us there this season). Enter Carlos Santana on a 1/5 deal. Still strong at the plate, and one of the top defensive 1B. Feels like a perfect match.

Maybe we take someone's Mashida back. Someone that has a pitcher that interests Bailey. Just A thought. I meant a pitcher.

On the one hand, Yoshida has no trade value. On the other hand, he had by far the lowest K rate on the team, a skill at which they are sorely lacking.

Ship him out!

Agreed on all points except Correa. I don’t see the fit nor do I want a contract that could easily become a bigger headache than Story’s.

The fit isn't perfect at this point but the Red Sox are probably better off just hanging on to Yoshida.

This is the thing in my mind, if somehow they could dump Yoshida and most of the contract for a bag of balls then maybe you do that but if it's paying down 50%+ of Yoshida's deal for a bag of balls then I just assume you keep him. Round about way of me saying I think in a perfect world Yoshida's $18M could be better spent elsewhere on the roster but if you're still paying him 9-10M to play elsewhere I don't think that the 9-10M in savings is worth it.

If they dump Yoshida for salary relief and don't do something else to meaningfully improve the offense, e.g. they just cycle existing players through the DH spot, I think I will finally be converted to the "this ownership has become truly cheap" school of thought

These are all valid points that I agree with.  In a nutshell, what you seem to be saying is that Yoshida is a valuable player, more so on certain teams than on others.  Now, is he $18M/yr valuable?  Probably not, but there's a weird sentiment on this board that Yoshida is untradeable.  I find it hard to believe an upside 140 WRC+ LH player with a 97th percentile K% isn't someone teams would be interested in for the right price.  Now, for Boston, the problem isn't that he's not valuable; it's that he's a suboptimal fit for our roster (K% aside) relative to alternatives, whereas he could be a better fit (ergo, more valuable) on another roster.  The challenge is finding teams that would value Yoshida (relative to his impact on overall team performance) most, and then to see if there are reasonable alternatives available to BOS to fill whatever gap would be caused by trading Yoshida away.

Filling Yoshida gap
It's silly to argue the cons of moving Yoshida (e.g., better K%) without appreciating the overall value that can be captured by using that roster spot differently.  My proposal is that they fill the open DH spot with Carlos Santana on a one-year deal.  He's old, but far more durable, and he continues to put up solid production at the plate; in fact, better than Yoshida by most measures (see below).  His K% isn't 97th percentile like Masa's, but 16.7% is still impressive.  And K% isn't the only measure of offensive quality.  In addition, and this cannot be overstated (especially in light of what we just experienced this season), Santana provides outstanding depth at 1B (the top defensive 1B in the league last year), so he addresses a huge need in terms of positional value that Yoshida can't match.  Also, Santana is a switch hitter, but he's a monster vs LHP (we need that, too!); and he fares around league average offensively vs RHP.  Think of what value that would have offered this season.  I would argue that losing Yoshida so we can backfill with Santana offers overwhelming value to the roster, unless, I suppose that we want to die on the hill that a 13% K rate vs a 16.7% K rate overwhelming counters all the other advantages Santana offers. 


Santana vs Yoshida
Pros:  Cheaper (1/6 vs 3/54); superior vs LHP (his 2024 OPS was .934!) and left to left-center approach would seem to play well at Fenway (though in SSS his Fenway stats aren't superb); walks 75% more; plugs a huge depth need at 1B, and offer best 1B defense in the league; durable/available (played in 296 games over last two seasons vs Yoshida's 246)
Cons:  Strikes out 25% more (though would still easily be the lowest rate on BOS) ; not as good vs RHP (though there's considerably more BABIP luck in Yoshida's stats vs RHP, while Santana's stats seem to be unlucky, so take his with a grain of salt); can't speak Japanese; is older; and again, strikes out 25% more (since that metric seems to carry disproportionate value)

What teams might value him most
As for finding the best return for Yoshida, two teams especially stand out: STL and SEA. Both were among the bottom in the league in terms of DH and LH production in WRC+. SEA, also, was one of the few teams with a worse K% than BOS.

Seattle's offense was their Achilles last season. That's well documented. Yoshida could be a great gap filler for them; not a panacea, but a valuable piece. Consider also the intrinsic value of Seattle having another big Japanese player on their roster, which seems to be a uniquely valuable asset to them in particular.

For the Cardinals, Yoshida could address their DH problem, as well as be a vast improvement to their offense (STL team WRC+ was 98, Yoshida's first two years have been 112, though, as you indicate, healthy Yoshida shows the penchant for much higher). Part of the value equation for STL, though, could be as a solution to their own roster allocation troubles. In their case, they've stated a need to reduce payroll moving forward. This isn't a baseball decision; it's a business decision. So their challenge will be how to operate on a lower payroll, while maximizing the aggregate return on that reduced investment. Their cash payroll for 2024 was $176M, so they need to be somewhat lower than that in 2025 (who knows how low, but I'm guessing it's not a couple million--let's say $170M). Currently, they stand at $131M, but adding in MLBTR's projection of ~$19M in arb salaries and at least another $7M to fill out the active roster spots gets them to ~$157M. They still need to find a 1B (Goldschmidt), not to mention a CF. and maybe a SP. Maybe SP could be addressed cheaply (Matthews, or one of the other AAA guys), but if they have to go outside, that's probably gonna cost. And they don't seem to have a viable options to backfill 1B (ironically, Santana would seem to be a viable answer for them, too) and CF internally. So lot's of holes and very little capital to fill them.

Given that, say they move Gray and his $25M payroll cost, which balloons to $40M next year (incl buyout), which I think is the darkest storm cloud for STL, and the biggest motivator to move him now, before it becomes imminently harder to find a taker in 2026 for his $40M cost.  But doesn't this cause a problem in that it creates a SP opening?  Not necessarily.  They'd still have Fedde, Pallante, Gibson, Mikolas and Matz.  Now that's not any starting five that puts a lot of fear into anyone, but the avg age of their 7 major starters in 2024 was 33, so they have to get younger.  They do have several viable AAA arms in the wings (Matthews, Graceffo, Robberse, and Kloffenstein), along with Liberatore, who despite his strong performance in the bullpen this year, seems to remain in STL's long-term starting plans.  Matthews looks to be a stud, but may need a little more seasoning, while the others have each had a cup of coffee, so they're options.  I'm suggesting STL may value the $7M payroll savings they would receive in 2024 and the bigger $22M in 2026 to plug other holes in the roster and allowing a desperately needed influx of youth in the rotation more than having it concentrated on Gray.  It's not always a pure WAR trade with the principles involved in the swap, is all I'm saying.  If we have to throw a few million in cheddar to make the deal, I think the overall value it could create on the roster would be well worth it.

I'm on the fence about Yoshida at this point.

If he stays healthy he could win a batting title and be a very productive hitter that is the rare guy in the lineup who doesnt strike out a ton.

Fact is he has been injured for parts if the last 2 seasons or playing thru something and has only had stretches of the guy Bloom envisioned he was signing.

There has been prolonged stretches of grounders to the right side of the infield.

From a team standpoint they certainly can use his high batting average and contact skills.

Problem is Breslow continually talks about balancing the lineup.

Ok, so for now catching is RH, but at some point Teel lefty takes over.

I imagine the plan is for Story at SS and Rafaela in CF supposing Duran shifts to LF and Abreu or more likely Anthony winds up in RF.

So Rafaela, Story, Wong and probably Grissom, at least to start, as the 2b and somewhere along the line Campbell comes in.

So they're balanced enough for now with 4 righties that they dont really have to part with Yoshids this season.

But that balance is s house of cards.

Story is often injured and eventually if healthy himself Mayer takes over, if not traded.

Who knows if Rafaela's refusal to walk could make him unplayable from an offensive standpoint? I dont think that will be the quite the case.

The elephant in the room is O'Neill.

Would Breslow give him a 3 year deal? I could see a QO.

My hope is that the Sox stay as is this year with Yoshida and then with 2 years left in his deal, trade him, and bring in Vlad Jr to DH.

But a lot of what happens with Yoshida will be a function of roster shaping, so I can understand if they move him should they want the DH to be a spot of RH balance if they're adding Mayer, Teel, and Anthony to the lineup, but that feels more like a 2026 problem than necessarily a 2025 issue although the current issue is reliability and thump. Losing O'Neill and Story getting hurt and continued struggles for Rafaela, Grissom and a Wong regression is a legit concern for 2025 although it probably wont be as dire as I make it sound.