Predicting The 2025 Opening Day Roster

These are all valid points that I agree with.  In a nutshell, what you seem to be saying is that Yoshida is a valuable player, more so on certain teams than on others.  Now, is he $18M/yr valuable?  Probably not, but there's a weird sentiment on this board that Yoshida is untradeable.  I find it hard to believe an upside 140 WRC+ LH player with a 97th percentile K% isn't someone teams would be interested in for the right price.  Now, for Boston, the problem isn't that he's not valuable; it's that he's a suboptimal fit for our roster (K% aside) relative to alternatives, whereas he could be a better fit (ergo, more valuable) on another roster.  The challenge is finding teams that would value Yoshida (relative to his impact on overall team performance) most, and then to see if there are reasonable alternatives available to BOS to fill whatever gap would be caused by trading Yoshida away.

Filling Yoshida gap
It's silly to argue the cons of moving Yoshida (e.g., better K%) without appreciating the overall value that can be captured by using that roster spot differently.  My proposal is that they fill the open DH spot with Carlos Santana on a one-year deal.  He's old, but far more durable, and he continues to put up solid production at the plate; in fact, better than Yoshida by most measures (see below).  His K% isn't 97th percentile like Masa's, but 16.7% is still impressive.  And K% isn't the only measure of offensive quality.  In addition, and this cannot be overstated (especially in light of what we just experienced this season), Santana provides outstanding depth at 1B (the top defensive 1B in the league last year), so he addresses a huge need in terms of positional value that Yoshida can't match.  Also, Santana is a switch hitter, but he's a monster vs LHP (we need that, too!); and he fares around league average offensively vs RHP.  Think of what value that would have offered this season.  I would argue that losing Yoshida so we can backfill with Santana offers overwhelming value to the roster, unless, I suppose that we want to die on the hill that a 13% K rate vs a 16.7% K rate overwhelming counters all the other advantages Santana offers. 
Pros:  Cheaper (1/6 vs 3/54); superior vs LHP (his 2024 OPS was .934!) and left to left-center approach would seem to play well at Fenway (though in SSS his Fenway stats aren't superb); walks 75% more; plugs a huge depth need at 1B, and offer best 1B defense in the league; durable/available (played in 296 games over last two seasons vs Yoshida's 246)
Cons:  Strikes out 25% more (though would still easily be the lowest rate on BOS) ; not as good vs RHP (though there's considerably more BABIP luck in Yoshida's stats vs RHP, while Santana's stats seem to be unlucky, so take his with a grain of salt); can't speak Japanese; is older; and again, strikes out 25% more (since that metric seems to carry disproportionate value)

What teams might value him most
As for finding the best return for Yoshida, two teams especially stand out: STL and SEA. Both were among the bottom in the league in terms of DH and LH production in WRC+. SEA, also, was one of the few teams with a worse K% than BOS.

Seattle's offense was their Achilles last season. That's well documented. Yoshida could be a great gap filler for them; not a panacea, but a valuable piece. Consider also the intrinsic value of Seattle having another big Japanese player on their roster, which seems to be a uniquely valuable asset to them in particular.

For the Cardinals, Yoshida could address their DH problem, as well as be a vast improvement to their offense (STL team WRC+ was 98, Yoshida's first two years have been 112, though, as you indicate, healthy Yoshida shows the penchant for much higher). Part of the value equation for STL, though, could be as a solution to their own roster allocation troubles. In their case, they've stated a need to reduce payroll moving forward. This isn't a baseball decision; it's a business decision. So their challenge will be how to operate on a lower payroll, while maximizing the aggregate return on that reduced investment. Their cash payroll for 2024 was $176M, so they need to be somewhat lower than that in 2025 (who knows how low, but I'm guessing it's not a couple million--let's say $170M). Currently, they stand at $131M, but adding in MLBTR's projection of ~$19M in arb salaries and at least another $7M to fill out the active roster spots gets them to ~$157M. They still need to find a 1B (Goldschmidt), not to mention a CF. and maybe a SP. Maybe SP could be addressed cheaply (Matthews, or one of the other AAA guys), but if they have to go outside, that's probably gonna cost. And they don't seem to have a viable options to backfill 1B (ironically, Santana would seem to be a viable answer for them, too) and CF internally. So lot's of holes and very little capital to fill them.

Given that, say they move Gray and his $25M payroll cost, which balloons to $40M next year (incl buyout), which I think is the darkest storm cloud for STL, and the biggest motivator to move him now, before it becomes imminently harder to find a taker in 2026 for his $40M cost.  But doesn't this cause a problem in that it creates a SP opening?  Not really.  They'd still have Fedde, Pallante, Gibson, Mikolas and Matz.  Now that's not any starting five that puts a lot of fear into anyone, but the avg age of their 7 major starters in 2024 was 33, so they have to get younger.  They do have several viable AAA arms in the wings (Matthews, Graceffo, Robberse, and Kloffenstein), along with Liberatore, who despite his strong performance in the bullpen this year, seems to remain in STL's long-term starting plans.  Matthews looks to be a stud, but may need a little more seasoning, while the others have each had a cup of coffee, so they're options.  I'm suggesting STL may value the $7M payroll savings they would receive in 2024 and the bigger $22M in 2026 to plug other holes in the roster and allowing a desperately needed influx of youth in the rotation more than having it concentrated on Gray.  It's not always a pure WAR trade with the principles involved in the swap, is all I'm saying.  If we have to throw a few million in cheddar to make the deal, I think the overall value it could create on the roster would be well worth it.

I appreciate the presentation and thought you placed in your post, but you've glossed over many important points in the process of making your argumet:
1. Santana isn't just older than Yoshida, he will turn 39 in April while Yoshida will be 31 for most of next season - we don't know how long Santana can keep playing at an MLB level.  [Only one year]
2. We don't know how much Santana will cost or if he would want to play for Boston. He made 5.25mil and would likely have multiple suiters for next year at 6mil.  [Only one year]
3. Santana cares about hitting the most, but he has expressed (just this year) how much he enjoys playing 1B. It's unlikely he would accept a full-time DH role unless he had no better offers. [Possibly]
4. Santana was great last year by OAA, but UZR and DRS had him at his career norms of 'above average' (1.9 and 8) and it's likely that's what he is (which would still be useful). [Still superior defense, in case Casas goes down; isn't that what depth is for?]
5. Santana was below league average vs RHPs last year and has had platoon splits through most of his career. It may be he's no longer a viable option against RHPs as a DH/1B.  [Agreed, but we have plenty of RHP mashers that could platoon]
6. You alluded to it, but if Santana is so much of a better option, and cheaper, why would any team want to trade for Yoshida rather than just sign Santana? [Fair point, but has been on series of 1yr contracts around $5-6M per for last few seasons after similar levels of performance]
7. Sonny Gray makes 25mil next season, in the 2nd year of his contract, so it's highly unlikely the Cardinals are looking to move him already (3.8 fWAR this season). Maybe they move him for 2026, but they have a 30mil option for 2027 which looks pretty good for now and the 5mil buyout is spread out from 2027-2031, so it's not a financial burden even if they don't retain him.  [Pressure to reduce payroll notwithstanding?]
8. Yoshida's negative platoon splits vs LHP weren't there in 2023 (103 vs 112 wRC+) and seem to be mostly driven by BABIP (.190 vs LHPs) and a small sample size (94 PAs). He does have higher GB rates against LHPs, but that was of little effect in 2023, so it's unclear if that's a true issue. [True, but Yoshida's BABIP vs RHPs was very high this year, so maybe not quite as strong on that side of plate]

I think you've made a good case as to why Santana would improve the current roster, but not that he would be able to fully replace Yoshida, so I wouldn't make any deal with Yoshida until the Red Sox were to sign Santana and decide that Devers/Casas would take the majority of DH duty against RHPs. But that's only IF he wants to play in Boston, IF he's willing to primarily play DH, IF he's willing to take a reduced role and IF he's willing to sign for 6mil/1yr. Seems like a longshot, but it's good to keep the options open.

Re: Santana: when I looked at it a while ago, I came to the conclusion that, as a general rule of thumb, there is about a 50% that any position player older than 35 will have their performance more or less collapse in a given season (say, a wRC+ decline of more than 20 points). It made me very wary of signing any old guy to play a crucial role.

Santana, in particular, had just a 94 wRC+ in his age 34-37 seasons before bouncing back to 114 at age 38. I would bet a pretty decent amount of money that he would be below 100 at age 39.

Re: Santana: when I looked at it a while ago, I came to the conclusion that, as a general rule of thumb, there is about a 50% that any position player older than 35 will have their performance more or less collapse in a given season (say, a wRC+ decline of more than 20 points). It made me very wary of signing any old guy to play a crucial role.

Santana, in particular, had just a 94 wRC+ in his age 34-37 seasons before bouncing back to 114 at age 38. I would bet a pretty decent amount of money that he would be below 100 at age 39.

That's a legitimate concern.  The wheels could absolutely fall off, but over the last two seasons (his age 37 and 38 years), he's posted 5.2 bWAR and 4.5 fWAR, whereas Yoshida has posted 1.4 bWAR / 2.5 fWAR.  So, yes, he may all of a sudden drop considerably, but even if he dropped 50% he'd then be performing at Masa's proven level.  At the end of the day, the 'what ifs' can go any direction.  In the absence of a crystal ball, I'm just going on recent levels of sustained performance, in which Santana, despite being 7 years older than Masa, has lapped him in convincing fashion.  He's helped surely by the defensive value he provides, so if he's just a DH-only replacement, I can see the value prop become more balanced.  If he's a platoon 1B who can slide in as a capable depth option, that would be valuable.  As wcsoxfan mentioned, however, that may not be a role he'd be interested in.  

Re bolded statement, that's true.  In 2020, he was 99 wRC+ (age 34), dropping to 81 in 2021.  2022-2023 he was 101, before his 114 this year (his BABIP over 2020-2022 was incredibly low at .215, compared to .254 the last two years, just to put those figures into context*).  But these mask his production specifically against LHP, which is the core thesis of my argument, and one of the glaring weaknesses the FO has indicated we have to address (along with improved defense and 1B depth).  In the last two years, vs LHP his wRC+ is 140.  For Masa, it's 84 (58 in 2024, suppressed by bad luck, tbf).  If Santana dropped 50% compared to last year, Masa would need to improve by 50% vs LHP just to match him.  I guess I'm betting on Santana not declining like that and Masa not improving to that degree.  In the end, based purely on-field performance standpoint demonstrated performance, I guess I can't wrap my head around the logic that he wouldn't be a superior option for addressing the combination of those particular needs, but I'm realizing how much time I'm wasting on this argument, all for my own vanity, so I'm going to make everyone happy and move on.

* Masa's BABIP is .310

Pretty wide ranging conversation with Alex Speier and Tom Caron. Breslow unsurprisingly seems a lot more comfortable talking about things 12 months later

I don't think we can move yoshida even if he has positive value. I think if we want to get creative to get a more balanced lineup we should trade both Duran and wilyer for pitiching and then put campbell in center and anthony in right and TON in left. But prospects have growing pains so really risky.

I see 4 general paths to take this offseason. I ordered them by my personal preference.


1. Sign Juan Soto, trade excess outfielders for pitching.

Excellent long term investment even at cost considering his age and his ability. Would then be able to sell excess outfielders for some pitching upgrades, either in the pen or rotation. Possible long term fit issues with Devers and Casas but between 1st/LF/DH I think they could make it work without tanking the defense. Soto probably sucks up all the cash under the CBT that's available but it's worth it for him IMO.


2. Sign a big FA SP like Fried/Burnes/Snell

As Ian said on the podcast the simplest way to improve the team is to spend money on pitching and let the internal development handle the position player side. Investing in a 30+ y/o starter is certainly not the most efficient use of money, but it would improve the pitching in the immediate return and once whoever you sign starts declining hopefully you have some cheaper arms coming through the system to replace them. In this scenario you could use extra space under the CBT for someone like TON, relievers, or extensions for young players.


3. Make a painful trade for a CC starter.

This could go a few ways and the level and number of prospects/young players traded would depend in who is actually available. Like, they could go a cheaper route and do like what to Orioles did last year trading for Burnes. But then you probably are in the same spot next offseason (Ideally after a more successful season, though). You would really have to trade from positions of excess, otherwise you're just running in circles. You could use excess money to do multiple things like signing another solid bat, signing elite relief pitching, or doing multiple extensions (including the guy you're trading for)


4. Do the same thing they've been doing and making multiple smaller trades and signings

This would be like signing Jack Flahrety and saying he's the ace next season because you think he fits really well with what you're trying to do. Making a trade for a cost controlled reliever that has interesting stuff. Somehow obtaining a RHH outfielder who overperforms next year. Sign a few extensions. This could be successful if the system they've started gets more returns from the pitching side of things and they have internal improvement. Or if the little moves they make work out like they did in 2021. But I also think they need to do something bigger this off-season because they really need to change things up. The last few years have been so similar.

  Everyone is talking about "spending up to the tax threshold."  I think clearly 2025 is the year to go past the threshold, if necessary, by as much as $30M, especially on deals of 3 years or less.  The only serious penalties are for exceeding the threshold by $40M.  And if in contention they should be willing to go $39M over at the deadline.  Before this it was a bad business decision to overspend.  But 2025 is the future, and it's here. In 2028 they should have enough good young players to go back under and avoid the big big penalties.

I see 4 general paths to take this offseason. I ordered them by my personal preference.


1. Sign Juan Soto, trade excess outfielders for pitching.

Excellent long term investment even at cost considering his age and his ability. Would then be able to sell excess outfielders for some pitching upgrades, either in the pen or rotation. Possible long term fit issues with Devers and Casas but between 1st/LF/DH I think they could make it work without tanking the defense. Soto probably sucks up all the cash under the CBT that's available but it's worth it for him IMO.


2. Sign a big FA SP like Fried/Burnes/Snell

As Ian said on the podcast the simplest way to improve the team is to spend money on pitching and let the internal development handle the position player side. Investing in a 30+ y/o starter is certainly not the most efficient use of money, but it would improve the pitching in the immediate return and once whoever you sign starts declining hopefully you have some cheaper arms coming through the system to replace them. In this scenario you could use extra space under the CBT for someone like TON, relievers, or extensions for young players.


3. Make a painful trade for a CC starter.

This could go a few ways and the level and number of prospects/young players traded would depend in who is actually available. Like, they could go a cheaper route and do like what to Orioles did last year trading for Burnes. But then you probably are in the same spot next offseason (Ideally after a more successful season, though). You would really have to trade from positions of excess, otherwise you're just running in circles. You could use excess money to do multiple things like signing another solid bat, signing elite relief pitching, or doing multiple extensions (including the guy you're trading for)


4. Do the same thing they've been doing and making multiple smaller trades and signings

This would be like signing Jack Flahrety and saying he's the ace next season because you think he fits really well with what you're trying to do. Making a trade for a cost controlled reliever that has interesting stuff. Somehow obtaining a RHH outfielder who overperforms next year. Sign a few extensions. This could be successful if the system they've started gets more returns from the pitching side of things and they have internal improvement. Or if the little moves they make work out like they did in 2021. But I also think they need to do something bigger this off-season because they really need to change things up. The last few years have been so similar.

With all of the "smoke" about Sox being interested in Bregman/Adames, could it be possible that they're already considering moving devers to 1st? If that's the case, I wouldn't mind them: 1) signing Soto 2) trading Casas for pitching 3) signing a 1 yr stop gap 3rd baseman with the long-term plan being Story at SS and Mayer at 3B.

Has there been any smoke beyond that one totally speculative article (was it Rosenthal?) that just threw it out as a hypothetical and that some other people took up and ran with?