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Predicting The 2025 Opening Day Roster
asm18
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Post by asm18 on Oct 12, 2024 10:37:46 GMT -5
“While the idea of moving Casas is tantalizing for some, the Red Sox still think he’s an elite player and the ripple effects may be too much for a bold move. With that said, there are some in the organization who value Adames highly and would love to see him in Boston.” Like with a lot of these ideas, it’s one thing to bounce them around in the meeting room (or on a message board) - it’s another to execute the signing of a highly pursued free agent, trade Casas for fair value, and then have guys move positions accordingly. That doesn’t mean they’re necessarily bad ideas, but I feel like inertia often kicks in for front offices. It is easier to just stick with Casas at 1B, Devers at 3B, and Yoshida at DH, which is probably why if we’re predicting the ‘25 Opening Day Roster that’s probably the most likely outcome. You don’t have to make a deal with an agent or another team, or ask your owner to sign off on anything |
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 12, 2024 10:48:38 GMT -5
“While the idea of moving Casas is tantalizing for some, the Red Sox still think he’s an elite player and the ripple effects may be too much for a bold move. With that said, there are some in the organization who value Adames highly and would love to see him in Boston.” Like with a lot of these ideas, it’s one thing to bounce them around in the meeting room (or on a message board) - it’s another to execute the signing of a highly pursued free agent, trade Casas for fair value, and then have guys move positions accordingly. That doesn’t mean they’re necessarily bad ideas, but I feel like inertia often kicks in for front offices. It is easier to just stick with Casas at 1B, Devers at 3B, and Yoshida at DH, which is probably why if we’re predicting the ‘25 Opening Day Roster that’s probably the most likely outcome. You don’t have to make a deal with an agent or another team, or ask your owner to sign off on anything If that smoke surrounding Willie Adames is really their plan, then that tells me they want to dangle Marcelo Mayer for pitching, which adds to the gnawing feeling I have that they will trade him, that their game plan is to DH Devers, move Story to 2b or 3b with Grissom playing the other position and seeing how things land once Campbell is ready- like is Story healthy and productive? Is Grissom blossoming or struggling? Of course in that situation, Yoshida is also a goner. And I suspect Abreu is most likeliest to be traded. So that would make the lineup: Duran LF, Grissom 3b, Devers DH, Adames SS, Casas 1b, Story 2b, Anthony RF, Wong C, Rafaela CF - if that's their vision. Adames is a good player but I'm not crazy about the idea and the ripple effects it creates necessarily, unless it lands a top pitcher - I'm guessing Crochet would be their target. Not crazy about dealing Abreu and Mayer for him, though. I'd rather spend the money on an ace like Snell or Burnes or even Fried and hang onto Mayer, and use money eventually to land Vlad Jr to DH and balance the lineup with right handed thump. |
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Post by incandenza on Oct 12, 2024 10:59:07 GMT -5
Kinda weird for multiple articles speculating on a Casas trade and nothing (that I've seen) speculating on an Abreu trade. He's easily the most obvious trade candidate. And the only trade-relevant quote from Breslow I've seen was about how "you can only have so many LHH outfielders and middle infielders," which are the obvious places where they do have depth to trade from.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 12, 2024 11:05:08 GMT -5
“While the idea of moving Casas is tantalizing for some, the Red Sox still think he’s an elite player and the ripple effects may be too much for a bold move. With that said, there are some in the organization who value Adames highly and would love to see him in Boston.” Like with a lot of these ideas, it’s one thing to bounce them around in the meeting room (or on a message board) - it’s another to execute the signing of a highly pursued free agent, trade Casas for fair value, and then have guys move positions accordingly. That doesn’t mean they’re necessarily bad ideas, but I feel like inertia often kicks in for front offices. It is easier to just stick with Casas at 1B, Devers at 3B, and Yoshida at DH, which is probably why if we’re predicting the ‘25 Opening Day Roster that’s probably the most likely outcome. You don’t have to make a deal with an agent or another team, or ask your owner to sign off on anything If that smoke surrounding Willie Adames is really their plan, then that tells me they want to dangle Marcelo Mayer for pitching, which adds to the gnawing feeling I have that they will trade him, that their game plan is to DH Devers, move Story to 2b or 3b with Grissom playing the other position and seeing how things land once Campbell is ready- like is Story healthy and productive? Is Grissom blossoming or struggling? Of course in that situation, Yoshida is also a goner. And I suspect Abreu is most likeliest to be traded. So that would make the lineup: Duran LF, Grissom 3b, Devers DH, Adames SS, Casas 1b, Story 2b, Anthony RF, Wong C, Rafaela CF - if that's their vision. Adames is a good player but I'm not crazy about the idea and the ripple effects it creates necessarily, unless it lands a top pitcher - I'm guessing Crochet would be their target. Not crazy about dealing Abreu and Mayer for him, though. I'd rather spend the money on an ace like Snell or Burnes or even Fried and hang onto Mayer, and use money eventually to land Vlad Jr to DH and balance the lineup with right handed thump. It's a plausible approach I think. But Mayer and Abreu is too much for two years of Crochet, and what use do the White Sox have for Abreu anyway? They're years from competinig and Abreu will at least be well into arb by then. |
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Post by chaimtime on Oct 12, 2024 11:08:06 GMT -5
One point I think is important is that there is very little salary coming off the books next year. Hendriks at $5m aav, Refsnyder's $2m and then Giolito has a club option. And then the year after there are no players on the roster set to become free agents. Arb awards for younger players will be going up a lot by 2026 It would be very surprising if the team let itself go over the tax three years in a row. I think that’s gonna depend on if they’re making the playoffs consistently. Philadelphia is going to be paying the repeater tax again. Atlanta seems to be setting themselves up for the same. The Mets, Yankees and Dodgers are probably in the tax for the foreseeable future. It seems like the trend is to pay the tax for a contender, which makes sense with how slowly the CBT threshold has risen over this CBA. If ownership wants to compete, they’re gonna need to be willing to take that hit. If they aren’t, then payroll becomes a competitive disadvantage among the big market teams. |
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Post by julyanmorley on Oct 12, 2024 11:26:53 GMT -5
One point I think is important is that there is very little salary coming off the books next year. Hendriks at $5m aav, Refsnyder's $2m and then Giolito has a club option. And then the year after there are no players on the roster set to become free agents. Arb awards for younger players will be going up a lot by 2026 It would be very surprising if the team let itself go over the tax three years in a row. I think that’s gonna depend on if they’re making the playoffs consistently. Philadelphia is going to be paying the repeater tax again. Atlanta seems to be setting themselves up for the same. The Mets, Yankees and Dodgers are probably in the tax for the foreseeable future. It seems like the trend is to pay the tax for a contender, which makes sense with how slowly the CBT threshold has risen over this CBA. If ownership wants to compete, they’re gonna need to be willing to take that hit. If they aren’t, then payroll becomes a competitive disadvantage among the big market teams. I think your expectation should be that they are at a payroll disadvantage compared to the New York and Los Angeles teams moving forward.
The second market tier - Boston, Houston, Texas, San Francisco, Chicago, Atlanta, Philadelphia, Toronto - I would expect to pursue a strategy of staying close to the line unless the team is unusually hopeless, going over when the time is ripe, and trying hard to avoid the three year penalty. Philly has been an outlier in that group.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Oct 12, 2024 11:30:09 GMT -5
If that smoke surrounding Willie Adames is really their plan, then that tells me they want to dangle Marcelo Mayer for pitching, which adds to the gnawing feeling I have that they will trade him, that their game plan is to DH Devers, move Story to 2b or 3b with Grissom playing the other position and seeing how things land once Campbell is ready- like is Story healthy and productive? Is Grissom blossoming or struggling? Of course in that situation, Yoshida is also a goner. And I suspect Abreu is most likeliest to be traded. So that would make the lineup: Duran LF, Grissom 3b, Devers DH, Adames SS, Casas 1b, Story 2b, Anthony RF, Wong C, Rafaela CF - if that's their vision. Adames is a good player but I'm not crazy about the idea and the ripple effects it creates necessarily, unless it lands a top pitcher - I'm guessing Crochet would be their target. Not crazy about dealing Abreu and Mayer for him, though. I'd rather spend the money on an ace like Snell or Burnes or even Fried and hang onto Mayer, and use money eventually to land Vlad Jr to DH and balance the lineup with right handed thump. It's a plausible approach I think. But Mayer and Abreu is too much for two years of Crochet, and what use do the White Sox have for Abreu anyway? They're years from competinig and Abreu will at least be well into arb by then. If you think Mayer and Abreu is too much for Crochet, I think you are going to be very much out on what he’s actually going to go for |
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Post by jdb on Oct 12, 2024 11:30:14 GMT -5
With the Mariners having a pretty good farm they are good team to get involved with the White Sox for Crochet. If they want to improve their lineup while keeping the four cost controlled pitchers maybe the three teams can work something out. I’m on the fence about Casas for pitching but if he’s traded we need to find power somewhere.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 12, 2024 11:37:53 GMT -5
It's a plausible approach I think. But Mayer and Abreu is too much for two years of Crochet, and what use do the White Sox have for Abreu anyway? They're years from competinig and Abreu will at least be well into arb by then. If you think Mayer and Abreu is too much for Crochet, I think you are going to be very much out on what he’s actually going to go for For two years of a pitcher who has a one-year innings-limited track record of success? I dunno, I wouldn't expect him to return that much more than Cease did. And I think Mayer + Abreu would be quite a bit more than the Cease return.
In any case, I certainly would be out on him at that price.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Oct 12, 2024 11:42:41 GMT -5
If you think Mayer and Abreu is too much for Crochet, I think you are going to be very much out on what he’s actually going to go for For two years of a pitcher who has a one-year innings-limited track record of success? I dunno, I wouldn't expect him to return that much more than Cease did. And I think Mayer + Abreu would be quite a bit more than the Cease return.
In any case, I certainly would be out on him at that price.
I mean I’m pretty sure the guys on the pod just speculated it’d take three of Mayer/Campbell/Anthony/Teel/Casas/Abreu, I think that’s much closer to the reality. And his current contract status is pretty moot in my opinion because any trade agreement would likely come with a pre-agreed upon extension |
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Post by ematz1423 on Oct 12, 2024 11:54:46 GMT -5
The rumors I saw from the deadline is there was a lot of interest in crochet but that the Dodgers wouldn't offer rushing and that the Phillies wouldn't offer painter. Both good prospects but not exactly top 10 guys like anthony/mayer/Campbell.
I don't really know that his value has increased since the deadline by pitching 4 inning stints. Might be more suitors this offseason I guess but still I get the sense crochet isn't as valuable as some on here throw around but we'll see as chances are he gets dealt.
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Post by jdb on Oct 12, 2024 11:55:38 GMT -5
It will be interesting to see what they get for him since it was rumored the Dodgers wouldn’t include Rushing a top 50 type guy.
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Post by iakovos11 on Oct 12, 2024 11:59:39 GMT -5
For two years of a pitcher who has a one-year innings-limited track record of success? I dunno, I wouldn't expect him to return that much more than Cease did. And I think Mayer + Abreu would be quite a bit more than the Cease return. In any case, I certainly would be out on him at that price.
I mean I’m pretty sure the guys on the pod just speculated it’d take three of Mayer/Campbell/Anthony/Teel/Casas/Abreu, I think that’s much closer to the reality. And his current contract status is pretty moot in my opinion because any trade agreement would likely come with a pre-agreed upon extension Three of those guys? That's totally nuts. I'd want no part of that - even with an extension agreement. |
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Post by incandenza on Oct 12, 2024 12:00:49 GMT -5
For two years of a pitcher who has a one-year innings-limited track record of success? I dunno, I wouldn't expect him to return that much more than Cease did. And I think Mayer + Abreu would be quite a bit more than the Cease return.
In any case, I certainly would be out on him at that price.
I mean I’m pretty sure the guys on the pod just speculated it’d take three of Mayer/Campbell/Anthony/Teel/Casas/Abreu, I think that’s much closer to the reality. And his current contract status is pretty moot in my opinion because any trade agreement would likely come with a pre-agreed upon extension Okay, maybe I'm way off then. But that sounds to me like a BANANAS price to pay for a pitcher with the caveats I noted above. Like, that's getting into, if not beyond, the territory of what Sale cost, and Crochet is just not Chris Sale, who was coming off 3 straight 5+ WAR seasons, was regularly putting up 200-inning seasons, and had 3 years of control yet. (The years of control matter even in the event of an extension because they will factor into the cost of the extension.)
For what it's worth, Mayer alone feels to me like what Crochet ought to cost. Or Mayer plus a lower-tier prospect or two. [ADD: maybe even that's too high based on ematz's and jdb's comments above]
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Post by ematz1423 on Oct 12, 2024 12:05:29 GMT -5
I mean I’m pretty sure the guys on the pod just speculated it’d take three of Mayer/Campbell/Anthony/Teel/Casas/Abreu, I think that’s much closer to the reality. And his current contract status is pretty moot in my opinion because any trade agreement would likely come with a pre-agreed upon extension Okay, maybe I'm way off then. But that sounds to me like a BANANAS price to pay for a pitcher with the caveats I noted above. Like, that's getting into, if not beyond, the territory of what Sale cost, and Crochet is just not Chris Sale, who was coming off 3 straight 5+ WAR seasons, was regularly putting up 200-inning seasons, and had 3 years of control yet. (The years of control matter even in the event of an extension because they will factor into the cost of the extension.)
For what it's worth, Mayer alone feels to me like what Crochet ought to cost. Or Mayer plus a lower-tier prospect or two. [ADD: maybe even that's too high based on ematz's and jdb's comments above]
Feels like sale cost less than 3 of that group by a fair amount. Moncada was an Uber prospect but so is at least Anthony and Mayer and Campbell probably could qualify too. Kopech was an electric arm but at the trade time was questioned if he's an SP or not which he wasn't. I don't recall basabe or Diaz being too highly ranked? |
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Oct 12, 2024 12:13:42 GMT -5
For the record I’m not saying I would *do* that, just recalling the conversation to the best of my ability (and I could be wrong there). I think it’s somewhere in between that package and just Mayer + Abreu, which frankly I’d do in a heartbeat (I think Abreu’s trade value is a little overrated) if he were guaranteed to extend.
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Post by awalkinthepark on Oct 12, 2024 12:17:14 GMT -5
I mean I’m pretty sure the guys on the pod just speculated it’d take three of Mayer/Campbell/Anthony/Teel/Casas/Abreu, I think that’s much closer to the reality. And his current contract status is pretty moot in my opinion because any trade agreement would likely come with a pre-agreed upon extension Okay, maybe I'm way off then. But that sounds to me like a BANANAS price to pay for a pitcher with the caveats I noted above. Like, that's getting into, if not beyond, the territory of what Sale cost, and Crochet is just not Chris Sale, who was coming off 3 straight 5+ WAR seasons, was regularly putting up 200-inning seasons, and had 3 years of control yet. (The years of control matter even in the event of an extension because they will factor into the cost of the extension.)
For what it's worth, Mayer alone feels to me like what Crochet ought to cost. Or Mayer plus a lower-tier prospect or two. [ADD: maybe even that's too high based on ematz's and jdb's comments above]
I generally agree with Chris and Ian but I think Ian is overstating how much Crochet will cost. It's not perfect but on Baseball trade values right now, Crochet is listed as being worth $42.5 million, while Mayer is at $65 million, Anthony $55 million and Campbell $40 million. The x factors here are what the White Sox want and what other teams are willing to pay, but I think one of Mayer/Anthony/Campbell plus a lower level but high ceiling prospect like Bleis or Cespedes is my guess, with another unspectacular prospect thrown in. |
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Post by ematz1423 on Oct 12, 2024 12:21:05 GMT -5
For the record I’m not saying I would *do* that, just recalling the conversation to the best of my ability (and I could be wrong there). I think it’s somewhere in between that package and just Mayer + Abreu, which frankly I’d do in a heartbeat (I think Abreu’s trade value is a little overrated) if he were guaranteed to extend. Feels like if abreu is involved it's probably a 3 team deal as I don't see the white Sox being all that interested in him. Best case scenario to me on a Crochet deal would be something like abreu, either Montgomery or Arias and one of sandlin/perales/tolle or pick whatever pitcher in that ballpark out the door for the Red Sox. Abreu nets 2 maybe 3 prospects the white Sox are interested in and white Sox get a package of some quality and some quantity but none of the blue chippers for the Red Sox. May be some wishful thinking on my part but I'm really just not on board dealing Mayer for crochet and none the less Mayer+. I do fear Mayer is going out the door for a pitcher this offseason though. |
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 12, 2024 12:27:17 GMT -5
Okay, maybe I'm way off then. But that sounds to me like a BANANAS price to pay for a pitcher with the caveats I noted above. Like, that's getting into, if not beyond, the territory of what Sale cost, and Crochet is just not Chris Sale, who was coming off 3 straight 5+ WAR seasons, was regularly putting up 200-inning seasons, and had 3 years of control yet. (The years of control matter even in the event of an extension because they will factor into the cost of the extension.)
For what it's worth, Mayer alone feels to me like what Crochet ought to cost. Or Mayer plus a lower-tier prospect or two. [ADD: maybe even that's too high based on ematz's and jdb's comments above]
I generally agree with Chris and Ian but I think Ian is overstating how much Crochet will cost. It's not perfect but on Baseball trade values right now, Crochet is listed as being worth $42.5 million, while Mayer is at $65 million, Anthony $55 million and Campbell $40 million. The x factors here are what the White Sox want and what other teams are willing to pay, but I think one of Mayer/Anthony/Campbell plus a lower level but high ceiling prospect like Bleis or Cespedes is my guess, with another unspectacular prospect thrown in. Sounds about right. Still wouldn't want to do it, but I suspect theres a reasonably good chance of it. |
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Post by finaliz3d on Oct 12, 2024 12:31:52 GMT -5
On Crochet's value, I do think the podcast overstated it. Especially given the Cease comparable was a top 20 guy and the #85. I would wager Abreu has similar value to a back end top 100 prospect and of course Mayer is a consensus top 10-15-ish prospect in all of baseball. And if that's not enough, I don't think its f as r enough off that a sweetener couldn't be added to get the job done. Cease had one year remaining while Crochet has two, but Cease also has proven more than Crochet.
That said, do I want Crochet? Not really.
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Post by ematz1423 on Oct 12, 2024 12:32:48 GMT -5
I wouldn't be happy but I could forgive them for dealing Mayer as they do have story for the next several years and Mayers injury history is at least semi worrisome. They've said they need RHH and Campbell sounds like he's going to be a plus hitter at 2nd base but his track record is one year so kind of similar to Mayer I could forgive it. However if Anthony is dealt, especially for crochet I'd be real pissed off and will very much sour on breslow and the organization. The guy is an absolute stud. You don't trade a guy like him for a guy in Crochet who quite frankly is still a big question mark as to whether or not he can handle an SP workload.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Oct 12, 2024 12:33:26 GMT -5
For the record I’m not saying I would *do* that, just recalling the conversation to the best of my ability (and I could be wrong there). I think it’s somewhere in between that package and just Mayer + Abreu, which frankly I’d do in a heartbeat (I think Abreu’s trade value is a little overrated) if he were guaranteed to extend. Feels like if abreu is involved it's probably a 3 team deal as I don't see the white Sox being all that interested in him. Best case scenario to me on a Crochet deal would be something like abreu, either Montgomery or Arias and one of sandlin/perales/tolle or pick whatever pitcher in that ballpark out the door for the Red Sox. Abreu nets 2 maybe 3 prospects the white Sox are interested in and white Sox get a package of some quality and some quantity but none of the blue chippers for the Red Sox. May be some wishful thinking on my part but I'm really just not on board dealing Mayer for crochet and none the less Mayer+. I do fear Mayer is going out the door for a pitcher this offseason though. Do you not want to see Mayer moved at all or do you just not like Crochet? If Mayer is going to be traded, Crochet represents a pretty good return imo |
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Post by chaimtime on Oct 12, 2024 12:34:22 GMT -5
I think that’s gonna depend on if they’re making the playoffs consistently. Philadelphia is going to be paying the repeater tax again. Atlanta seems to be setting themselves up for the same. The Mets, Yankees and Dodgers are probably in the tax for the foreseeable future. It seems like the trend is to pay the tax for a contender, which makes sense with how slowly the CBT threshold has risen over this CBA. If ownership wants to compete, they’re gonna need to be willing to take that hit. If they aren’t, then payroll becomes a competitive disadvantage among the big market teams. I think your expectation should be that they are at a payroll disadvantage compared to the New York and Los Angeles teams moving forward.
The second market tier - Boston, Houston, Texas, San Francisco, Chicago, Atlanta, Philadelphia, Toronto - I would expect to pursue a strategy of staying close to the line unless the team is unusually hopeless, going over when the time is ripe, and trying hard to avoid the three year penalty. Philly has been an outlier in that group.
Yeah, I don’t think anybody should expect a $300 million payroll any time soon. But I also have a hard time believing the revenue disparity is so huge that those teams can run up $100 million tax bills with regularity while those second tier teams have to keep the tax penalties in the back of their mind when they’re contenders. I think at the start of the CBA and during the covid uncertainty it definitely made a lot more sense to be cautious, but revenue growth is outpacing the CBT increases by quite a lot at this point. The Braves and Phillies are making enough money that a $15 million tax bill isn’t gonna get in the way of keeping the foot on the gas while the window is open. They probably aren’t ever going to run the payrolls that run up massive tax bills, so they don’t need to worry about being stuck paying the 100% tax or anything like that. I’d expect the Red Sox to operate similarly in a window of contention, with total outlays in the $275 million range. I expect the next CBA will make this all moot, but as it stands, if the Red Sox management and ownership seriously believe that a big offseason will open up their championship window next year, then they should be ready to spend over the CBT threshold for the foreseeable future. That’s my expectation from them if they’re telling me that they’re going to do what it takes to build a team that can win the division and contend for the World Series. I don’t have a problem with restricting spending when the team is on the outside looking in, but I think that’s a pretty reasonable expectation for when they’re in the playoff picture. |
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Post by ematz1423 on Oct 12, 2024 12:36:55 GMT -5
Feels like if abreu is involved it's probably a 3 team deal as I don't see the white Sox being all that interested in him. Best case scenario to me on a Crochet deal would be something like abreu, either Montgomery or Arias and one of sandlin/perales/tolle or pick whatever pitcher in that ballpark out the door for the Red Sox. Abreu nets 2 maybe 3 prospects the white Sox are interested in and white Sox get a package of some quality and some quantity but none of the blue chippers for the Red Sox. May be some wishful thinking on my part but I'm really just not on board dealing Mayer for crochet and none the less Mayer+. I do fear Mayer is going out the door for a pitcher this offseason though. Do you not want to see Mayer moved at all or do you just not like Crochet? If Mayer is going to be traded, Crochet represents a pretty good return imo I'd obviously prefer none of the blue chippers go as my main stance. I could overall forgive a Mayer deal but honestly I don't really buy into crochet yet. He's literally never made it through one season with a full starters workload so we really don't know if he can do it. My post a few up illustrates more my thought process. All this talk on crochet or really any hurtful to the farm trade just brings me back to my thoughts since July. Go sign one of burnes/fried/snell/eovaldi/flaherty whoever I don't really care just one of the better FA SPs. They have plenty of money to spend and to me spending the money makes way more sense and will overall be better for the long term success than to deal any blue chip prospect. |
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Post by julyanmorley on Oct 12, 2024 12:39:33 GMT -5
Speaking of crazy trade hauls, the original Juan Soto deal is now looking like
Soto: 15.3 WAR for $60 million
for
James Wood: 1.2 WAR, 6 years of control, will have big WAR projections
MacKenzie Gore: 4.4 WAR, 4 years of control, mid 2's WAR projections
CJ Abrams: 4 WAR, 4 years of control, low 2's WAR projections, knucklehead
Jarlin Susana - low end top 100 pitching prospect, one of the hardest throwers in baseball
Robert Hassell - stock has tanked, is about to become an unhappy Rule 5 protection
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