Predicting The 2025 Opening Day Roster

Interesting point about Ref. No word since his thinking on this was first reported. Maybe his window of consideration and keeping the FO in the loop will be made clear, like so much else, after the WS. It’s a huge step for him and his family … and for the team, fans and FO. If so we will know fairly soon.

Dom Smith's OPS+ was 96.  Refsnyder's was 129.  There is no universe where you don't play Refsnyder at 1B if 1B is so easy you can just train someone to do it in a couple of games.  

Also, the cart sometimes drives the horse with WAR.  Dever's offensive production is the same no matter where you play him on the field.  You don't get extra runs or extra wins in the real world because of positional scarcity in the abstract.  You get them by putting the best lineup on the field given their offensive/defensive play. 

I'm still having a hard time believing people want to trade Casas. A potential 40 HR guy at a position that's been a black hole for Boston since 2019. If it was so easy to teach someone to play there this would've rarely if ever been a concern. There's no legit replacement in AAA/AA.

The Sox have surplus in top middle infield and OF prospects. They've got at least one guy, Yoshida, who is overpaid and has no position (and who, despite what this team says, may not be ready for opening day), and another, Devers, who's signed long term, can hit all day long, but is below average (though not tragically so) at his position. Finally, they have Rafaela, a defensive wizz with sneaky power and a strike zone that goes from his eyes to his ankles and extends to the outer edges of the LHH batters box.

If they want a top starter, they can either finally open the purse and buy one or trade for one. I'll all for spending other people's money. However, a trade that creates another significant problem (losing Casas with the idea that Devers can just step into first base, handle the ball more than 90% of the time will be fine), creates a new hole at third and doesn't sound like an answer. Trading from surplus, especially from the prospect pool, while distasteful to many here depending on who's binky is dealt (THOU SHALT NOT MOVE ROMAN ANTHONY!), is probably the most logical move, aside from spending money, which this team, being a high revenue club, has plenty of.

Henry and Werner have spent the last 5 years trying to run this team like they have a salary cap. It's yielded four meh to awful teams and one playoff team. That's not success, unless the measure of success is merely revenue. Even then, as Sox Stats showed yesterday on X, the NESN ratings for Sox games are abysmal since 2019, except for (surprise!) the playoff season.

The only scenario I get trading Casas is if he’s traded for Kirby or Gilbert and he’s replaced with Christian Walker on a 3 year deal. Anything less would be blasphemy.

As far as the dynamics around Casas, it does seem the FO and Cora are out on him, not because of his performance or potential, but more that they don’t appreciate the wildcard nature of his personality. I personally love it, but reading the tea leaves, it would seem that those in charge see it as a massive distraction and headache.

Where in the world are you leaping to any conclusion that cora and the FO are souring on Casas?

Plus they may want to extend some players.  

It’s really tough to predict what the offseason will hold without getting any clear signals on what they’ll spend. I could see them going into the season anywhere between $10 million under the tax and $30 million over it.

I personally have strong doubts they dip the tax yet again. I think the organization-wide consistency on wanting to deliver a “division winner” and Alex Speier writing a column about how that’s different from wanting to be “competitive” is probably the closest thing to a signal that they’ll spend that we’ll get. I doubt that they’re too broke to keep up with the Phillies and Braves spending-wise, and those two teams are going to be well into the tax.

At the same time, they’ve cut spending in recent years for a reason. While I think that reason is more likely to be “John Henry doesn’t think it’s worth signing top-of-the-market deals while the team has no affordable young talent to put around them while they’re still in their prime” than “John Henry only cares about counting his money at the end of the season,” without knowing what the actual plan is, it’s perfectly reasonable to assume more of the same.

Sam Kennedy isn’t exactly a PR mastermind, but I have to assume even he understands that shifting the rhetoric so strongly after yet another disappointing season, only to follow it up with more of the same, is marketing suicide. They knew what a headache Full Throttle turned into, and they’re still putting out strong statements about their goals for next year. If they don’t spend big, the vibes will get pretty rotten pretty fast. That’s why I lean toward spending, and why I’ll have my pitchfork out with everyone else if they don’t.

I feel pretty confident they're not going over the tax. If they go over this year, presumably adding some long term commitments, then they basically can't get under until 2028 when Story, Yoshida and Houck come off the books.

Getting under in 2028 is all you need to do, to reset before the penalties become too big..  

With the talent that is coming along, there is no reason not to go $30M or so over the first threshold fore the next three years.  The only cold-hearted reason I could think of is if they think going over in 26, 27, and 28 would be better, with the big four as established sophomores in 2026, but that seems unwise.

 I second all the above who say that are not going to trade Casas, basically so as to try to improve 3b defense.  Way too soon to move Devers off 3b.

Keep in mind a Crochet acquisition would almost certainly come with an extension (based on reports from last trade deadline). If they chose to place the extension starting 2025, it would likely chew-up another ~20mil. Then if they extend one of Anthony, Casas, Duran or Houck and they're about ~15mil below the CBT, and they normally keep ~10mil for in-season moves. Not an amazing off-season, but if they're building from within it's possible.

After that 64m, the Red Sox started opening day last year 20m below the CBT and finished about 11m. If we assume maybe we're allowed to work a little closer and are 15m below the CBT to start the year, we'll be at 49m to spend.

Assuming you spend 15m on Tanner Scott, 20m on a starter by trade (or a guy like Crochet that you would extend for that AAV), after that you're looking at 14m. I think you can cheap out on a backup defensive catcher like Seby Zavala who's underwater offensively, but can be a quality defender and offer the minimum to him so 13m left. You're still signing relievers, and an Anthony ext is probably at least 9m AAV... that leaves you with 4m to get some relievers. Chris Martin is projected at a 1m salary, even if you're spending above that at like 3m I'd be happy to have him back. Then let's say with that 1m remaining you go for a Rule 5 guy and see if you can get the next Justin Slaten. I trust Breslow and co. to evaluate and find their guy there.

This is almost perfect, except for the fact that you wouldn't have that middle of the order righty that you desperately need.

If you can stomach having Yoshida be an awkward really expensive off the bench lefty hitter (I don't like it, but if you aren't trading him he would need to be on the roster), what if you just did a trade of Giolito? Probably easier to get off of his money than Yoshida's given it's a shorter term, and there has to be a team that believes in the upside. If you do that, let's say you eat... 25% of the contract and don't take on salary back (let's say in return you get a flier prospect in A-ball or cash considerations or a career minor leaguer you don't have to pay for depth, idk), you go from a 19.25m cap hit on Giolito to a 4.8m cap hit. All of a sudden you have 15m to spend on a guy to play DH, right-handed middle of the lineup guy. That could be O'Neill, Goldschmidt, or insert right handed hitter here.