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jimoh
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Posts: 4,203 
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Post by jimoh on Nov 19, 2024 14:28:02 GMT -5
It's not an accounting trick, it's a public relations shtick as others have pointed out. Casual fans who aren't tracking the fine structure of the contract are taken in by that noise. Correct me if I am wrong. The total amount eventually paid by 2043 is 700 million. Yes or No answer only. You're wrong to think that a yes or no answer to that question is relevant. |
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badfishnbc
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Doing you all a favor and leaving through the gate in right field since 2012.
Posts: 519
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Post by badfishnbc on Nov 19, 2024 15:00:17 GMT -5
This article certainly does not say this. I was referring to the Pepen tweet. Perhaps you have a better translation as I am just using Google Translate Yeah, sorry, since you were quoting the Insider article I was linking to, I made the assumption that it was that article to which you referred. |
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Post by finaliz3d on Nov 19, 2024 15:09:16 GMT -5
I think you need a good RH hitter, I would assume that Campbell/Grissom is one spot not two (the other in AAA). Get one proven RH hitter to DH and hit second and we will be fine. That mitigates the problem of overreliance on Campbell/Grissom to be good right away. I'd say the chances of Grissom and Campbell covering 2 positional spots instead of one is better than them covering only one. If Grissom plays second and the Redsox trade Abreu (and more) for say Crochet I can see an outfield before seasons end of Campbell in LF, Duran in center and Anthony in RF and Rafaela backing up CF, RF and SS. This helps the Sox get more RH too with Story and Wong they'd have 4 RH hitters in the everyday line-up. You mention to get one proven RH DH, not sure who that'd be, here is the list of FA DH's. www.spotrac.com/mlb/free-agents/_/year/2025/position/dh/level/mlb/sort/contract_value, what happens to Yoshida then? In order to hope we can trade Yoshida next year and to a lesser degree Story you have to let them play, hope they are healthy and play well to try and build up any kind of market for them. Even then I'm sure for Yoshida we'd have to subsidize a deal to make it happen, the same applies to Story but he'd likely take even another year to potentially move him based on his contract, recent health and hitting. 1) On Yoshida, see the sunk cost fallacy.
2) So you think the outfield would be Campbell-Duran-Anthony? It's not impossible, but I just do not believe Vaughn Grissom and Kristian Campbell are both going to be good. It's possible, but I'd bet on only one of them ending up in the everyday lineup, and it's probably going to be Campbell. I think more than likely it ends up Duran-Rafaela-Anthony, or if we're lucky enough to sign Soto, Soto-Duran-Anthony.
3) Also just an added point on Rafaela, the guy hit better against righties than he did against lefties last year. His minor league stats are kind of mixed on whether he's actually a reverse-splits guy or not, but either way I wouldn't expect him to have like an .800 OPS against lefties next season.
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Juan Soto
Nov 19, 2024 15:24:03 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by sxfan on Nov 19, 2024 15:24:03 GMT -5
Pepen has been wrong so many times the past 2 years. He came out and said the Sox offered 300 million to Yamamoto. Passan came out a week later said all the reports of offers were not true. Hard to take his reports seriously. Just saying, McAdam wrote this week that the Sox offered Yamamoto $300 million. It's harder and harder to parse through the horse hockey that's filtered through the same 3 sources and spun every which way only to have several different spins on the same statement be aggregated by a twitter account that doesn't know which which side is up and which side is down. Semantics is dying, withered and choked by the tendrils of social media. That may be true that the Sox ultimately offered 300 in the end, but Pepen posted that the Sox offered the 300 million before this post by Passan. Peppen wasn't a great source last year. |
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jimoh
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Posts: 4,203
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Post by jimoh on Nov 19, 2024 15:54:42 GMT -5
Consider a more familiar example. Imagine that someone wins a $30,000,000 Powerball jackpot. The lottery commission will give the winner a choice between receiving a lump sum of around $14,000,000 or gradually increasing annuity payments totaling $30,000,000 that are doled out over 30 years, on the assumption that a $14,000,000 lump sum today has similar value to $30,000,000 in annuity payments. What's the "value" of those lottery winnings? What people are saying (and the premise of the luxury tax rule) is that the winnings are worth $14,000,000 because that's what they're worth today. Or consider damages awarded in legal claims, which are calculated in terms of present value. That means that a salary lost 20 years in the future (because of a tortious injury or death) will compensated in an (much lower) amount today that, if invested reasonably, would grow into that projected 2044 salary. It's the inverse of the lottery example. The point is that payments are made (and taxed) according to present value all the time. Thank you. |
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Post by wcsoxfan on Nov 19, 2024 16:07:20 GMT -5
It's not an accounting trick, it's a public relations shtick as others have pointed out. Casual fans who aren't tracking the fine structure of the contract are taken in by that noise. Correct me if I am wrong. The total amount eventually paid by 2043 is 700 million. Yes or No answer only. Every year ~44mil of Ohtani's 46mil/yr contract is placed into an investment account which is expected to accrue enough interest to be 68mil 10 years later (on July 1st) at which point the funds will be given to Ohtani. The MLBPA checks the account twice each year to assure that the funds will reach the 68mil total by the end - the Dodgers will add, or remove, money to assure they stay on track. The Dodgers could have simply given Ohtani the 44mil each year, but he has chosen to have them invest it for him, which assures it becomes 68mil in 10 years. This is a very low risk investment for Ohtani as he will receive the full 68mil/yr from 2034-2043 unless the Dodgers/MLB go bankrupt. In a way, the Dodgers are acting as an investment broker, but one with a guarantee payout. This is why the CBA has the contract as $46,076,768/yr. The MLBPA has the full contract listed as $437,830,563. There are benefits for both the club and player in making the money deferred, which is why so many large MLB contracts (including the Red Sox highest paid player) have deferments. |
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Juan Soto
Nov 19, 2024 16:22:34 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by redsoxfan2 on Nov 19, 2024 16:22:34 GMT -5
There's no excuse for the Red Sox to not win the bidding war. Get the player. Really? No excuse? I want them to sign him too, but “Steve Cohen has a lot more money than me and is willing to be irrational with it” is actually a pretty good excuse for getting outbid on a player. The Mets have lost out on other players. They're over the luxury with escalating penalties. The Red Sox have what, 70 million to go before the luxury? This team has gone over before and can go a bit over if they wanted to. Unless they're planning on offering Soto 800 million on top of their luxury penalties I'm tired of the Red Sox not being the team to go "all in" on a guy. |
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Juan Soto
Nov 19, 2024 16:27:07 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by redsoxfan2 on Nov 19, 2024 16:27:07 GMT -5
There's no excuse for the Red Sox to not win the bidding war. Get the player. Spoken like someone whose money isn’t at stake here lol I'm usually fair about the owners not spending, but their record since 2020, how much space they have before the luxury tax and the combination of Soto's age, skill, and health have me very irrational. You don't want to try and spend on a phenom two way player because he is a DH coming off TJ? Fine. You don't want to spend on a pitcher who is a little older with control issues that will cost you a draft pick? Fine. I get the logic for a lot of these guys, but you got to get stupid eventually. Mookie was the last guy I really wanted them to break the bank for. I'm glad they did with Devers, but even still they have so much room to spend at the moment. |
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Post by itinerantherb on Nov 19, 2024 17:03:38 GMT -5
Mets just acquired Jose Siri from the Rays, so I'm assuming they're now stocked with outfielders and thus out on Soto.
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Juan Soto
Nov 19, 2024 17:28:53 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by dirtywaterinla on Nov 19, 2024 17:28:53 GMT -5
Mets just acquired Jose Siri from the Rays, so I'm assuming they're now stocked with outfielders and thus out on Soto. I’d be shocked if Siri is in any starting role for them in 2025. |
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Post by chaimtime on Nov 19, 2024 17:43:06 GMT -5
One thing that is really getting on my nerves, of course coming from all my least favorite pundits, is this “the Red Sox/Jays/mystery team just can’t afford him” stuff. Every single one of these owners can afford Juan Soto.
Steve Cohen has more money than any of the others, but they can all afford to spend an amount that would make Cohen say uncle if they so chose. The question is just whether or not they think that’s the best use of their money—the exact same question Cohen will be asking himself as the bidding gets higher.
I get that it’s the offseason and baseball fanatics need to find something to pass the time, but I don’t understand this insistence on treating the sport as anything other than it is, a highly competitive, financialized undertaking where every team is trying to maximize every dollar they spend. Steve Cohen isn’t going to give Soto $800 million just because he wants him. Soto isn’t going to stay with the Yankees because of Yankee aura or whatever. The Red Sox aren’t going to get him because he loves David Ortiz and might hit .400 at Fenway.
The teams involved all know what it’s going to take to sign him. By far the most likely outcome here is that the money is comparable from all finalists and he picks whoever he sees as giving him the best shot at winning in the short and long term. That’s not very exciting, and not very good for filling the airwaves over the next few weeks, but it’s probably more correct than the roller coaster threads you’ll see on Twitter leading up to his decision will be.
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Post by itinerantherb on Nov 19, 2024 17:45:44 GMT -5
Mets just acquired Jose Siri from the Rays, so I'm assuming they're now stocked with outfielders and thus out on Soto. I’d be shocked if Siri is in any starting role for them in 2025. Oh, come on! He's got a cool name! That definitely counter-balances his OPS+ of 76. |
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Juan Soto
Nov 19, 2024 18:11:24 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by dirtywaterinla on Nov 19, 2024 18:11:24 GMT -5
I’d be shocked if Siri is in any starting role for them in 2025. Oh, come on! He's got a cool name! That definitely counter-balances his OPS+ of 76. Now I see the sarcasm! |
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Post by julyanmorley on Nov 19, 2024 23:34:05 GMT -5
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cdj
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Posts: 15,894
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Juan Soto
Nov 19, 2024 23:39:14 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by cdj on Nov 19, 2024 23:39:14 GMT -5
Winter Meetings are exactly aligned with my work trip to Orlando
Hope they don’t mind me in the corner staring at my phone the entire time! The refresh ain’t resting until Soto is in a Sox uniform
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Juan Soto
Nov 19, 2024 23:41:14 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by sxfan on Nov 19, 2024 23:41:14 GMT -5
I don't know how the Yankees can feel "encouraged" about anything. They're a sinking ship. There's no way Judge plays that many games and has as good of a year. The Yankees are a incomplete team even if they retain Soto. I have no idea why Soto would pick the Yankees. If it is "about the money, but not just money." Then the Yankees are behind the Mets, Red Sox, Phillies (if the Phillies have the cash), and Dodgers at this point. |
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Post by trotnixon7 on Nov 20, 2024 9:10:23 GMT -5
I don't know how the Yankees can feel "encouraged" about anything. They're a sinking ship. There's no way Judge plays that many games and has as good of a year. The Yankees are a incomplete team even if they retain Soto. I have no idea why Soto would pick the Yankees. If it is "about the money, but not just money." Then the Yankees are behind the Mets, Red Sox, Phillies (if the Phillies have the cash), and Dodgers at this point. Incomplete and still managed to make the WS. What are the Red Sox? More so average at the moment. Boston is in great position to build but that will take henry spending to suppliment the kids coming up, we will see if that happens. Its fair if players question Henry's "want" to win. |
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Post by incandenza on Nov 20, 2024 9:50:25 GMT -5
I don't know how the Yankees can feel "encouraged" about anything. They're a sinking ship. There's no way Judge plays that many games and has as good of a year. The Yankees are a incomplete team even if they retain Soto. I have no idea why Soto would pick the Yankees. If it is "about the money, but not just money." Then the Yankees are behind the Mets, Red Sox, Phillies (if the Phillies have the cash), and Dodgers at this point. Incomplete and still managed to make the WS. What are the Red Sox? More so average at the moment. Boston is in great position to build but that will take henry spending to suppliment the kids coming up, we will see if that happens. Its fair if players question Henry's "want" to win. If Henry signs Soto then I guess that would answer the question of whether Henry is willing to spend - a neatly self-resolving problem. |
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redsox04071318champs
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Always hoping to make my handle even longer...
Posts: 16,840
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Juan Soto
Nov 20, 2024 10:03:34 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 20, 2024 10:03:34 GMT -5
Incomplete and still managed to make the WS. What are the Red Sox? More so average at the moment. Boston is in great position to build but that will take henry spending to suppliment the kids coming up, we will see if that happens. Its fair if players question Henry's "want" to win. If Henry signs Soto then I guess that would answer the question of whether Henry is willing to spend - a neatly self-resolving problem. I'll believe the Sox sign Soto if they actually sign Soto. I believe Henry is willing to spend significantly this offseason. I believe Henry hadnt been willing to spend significantly since 2019. I believe he's been made aware that the Sox brand has been tarnished the last few years and that Theo is playing a role here in trying to get Henry to spend, but that last part is totally conjecture on my part. |
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Juan Soto
Nov 20, 2024 10:10:38 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 20, 2024 10:10:38 GMT -5
Incomplete and still managed to make the WS. What are the Red Sox? More so average at the moment. Boston is in great position to build but that will take henry spending to suppliment the kids coming up, we will see if that happens. Its fair if players question Henry's "want" to win. If Henry signs Soto then I guess that would answer the question of whether Henry is willing to spend - a neatly self-resolving problem. Yeah I was thinking the same. If you're willing to give Soto what it's going to take to sign him, the question answers itself. |
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Post by greenmonster on Nov 20, 2024 10:48:34 GMT -5
If Henry signs Soto then I guess that would answer the question of whether Henry is willing to spend - a neatly self-resolving problem. Yeah I was thinking the same. If you're willing to give Soto what it's going to take to sign him, the question answers itself. Does It? If I am Soto and my perception (right or wrong) is that JWH doesn't want to spend money but is reluctantly going out of his comfort zone to sign me. Does that make me feel confident he will continue to invest in pitching and extending young core players to give the team the best chance to win, or will the team be hand-cuffed by my contract? This line of thought might very well impact his decision, assuming that Soto wants to play for a winner (assuming he does). |
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Nov 20, 2024 10:55:36 GMT -5
Yeah I was thinking the same. If you're willing to give Soto what it's going to take to sign him, the question answers itself. Does It? If I am Soto and my perception (right or wrong) is that JWH doesn't want to spend money but is reluctantly going out of his comfort zone to sign me. Does that make me feel confident he will continue to invest in pitching and extending young core players to give the team the best chance to win, or will the team be hand-cuffed by my contract? This line of thought might very well impact his decision, assuming that Soto wants to play for a winner (assuming he does). How many owners do you really think would be "comfortable" giving out a $600 million contract? You're overthinking this. |
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badfishnbc
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Doing you all a favor and leaving through the gate in right field since 2012.
Posts: 519
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Post by badfishnbc on Nov 20, 2024 11:01:53 GMT -5
Soto had 8 hits in 13 games against Boston this past season. Maybe he's more bullish on our pitching than others.
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Nov 20, 2024 11:27:45 GMT -5
I'm with green monster here.
At some point, spending becomes a zero-sum game -- i.e., what you spend on one player is money you don't have to spend on another player. Is Soto, a heck of a hitter but a somewhat incomplete player, worth all the money you are going to have to pay him, not just in and of itself, but in context of overall spending limits [whatever they are]?
Or are you better off getting the alternative players you could get with the same money, and STILL having the money you'd be willing to spend in addition to Soto, however little or much that is, to improve the team further?
Plus, signing Soto puts another everyday LHH into the lineup, making the weed out of prospects all that much more perplexing AND necessary in the short - mid term.
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Post by threeifbaerga on Nov 20, 2024 11:31:15 GMT -5
Calling Juan Soto "a heck of a hitter" is underselling him pretty hard.
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