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Post by awalkinthepark on Nov 20, 2024 11:31:59 GMT -5
I'd say the chances of Grissom and Campbell covering 2 positional spots instead of one is better than them covering only one. If Grissom plays second and the Redsox trade Abreu (and more) for say Crochet I can see an outfield before seasons end of Campbell in LF, Duran in center and Anthony in RF and Rafaela backing up CF, RF and SS. This helps the Sox get more RH too with Story and Wong they'd have 4 RH hitters in the everyday line-up. You mention to get one proven RH DH, not sure who that'd be, here is the list of FA DH's. www.spotrac.com/mlb/free-agents/_/year/2025/position/dh/level/mlb/sort/contract_value, what happens to Yoshida then? In order to hope we can trade Yoshida next year and to a lesser degree Story you have to let them play, hope they are healthy and play well to try and build up any kind of market for them. Even then I'm sure for Yoshida we'd have to subsidize a deal to make it happen, the same applies to Story but he'd likely take even another year to potentially move him based on his contract, recent health and hitting. 1) On Yoshida, see the sunk cost fallacy.
2) So you think the outfield would be Campbell-Duran-Anthony? It's not impossible, but I just do not believe Vaughn Grissom and Kristian Campbell are both going to be good. It's possible, but I'd bet on only one of them ending up in the everyday lineup, and it's probably going to be Campbell. I think more than likely it ends up Duran-Rafaela-Anthony, or if we're lucky enough to sign Soto, Soto-Duran-Anthony.
3) Also just an added point on Rafaela, the guy hit better against righties than he did against lefties last year. His minor league stats are kind of mixed on whether he's actually a reverse-splits guy or not, but either way I wouldn't expect him to have like an .800 OPS against lefties next season.
I would love if people stopped using the sunk cost fallacy as a reason for why the Sox should eat a ton of money on some player. Having Yoshida be your DH isn't a sunk cost if you think he can be a fine DH. Keeping Devers at 3B is not a sunk cost if you think his defense is fine at 3B. The idea that how much is owed on a player's deal is no longer relevant once the ink is dry is not the sunk cost fallacy. |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 20, 2024 11:46:28 GMT -5
Does It? If I am Soto and my perception (right or wrong) is that JWH doesn't want to spend money but is reluctantly going out of his comfort zone to sign me. Does that make me feel confident he will continue to invest in pitching and extending young core players to give the team the best chance to win, or will the team be hand-cuffed by my contract? This line of thought might very well impact his decision, assuming that Soto wants to play for a winner (assuming he does). How many owners do you really think would be "comfortable" giving out a $600 million contract? You're overthinking this. This. Giving a player a $150 million contract or something could jibe with this line of thinking. You don't drop $500 million plus on a player just hoping that's enough. And keep in mind here, this is Scott Boras with a history with the owners involved, not two parties unknown to each other. Part of the pitch is almost certainly the plan going forward, and Boras is going to know if it's nonsense and will advise his client accordingly. Boras has been dealing with JWH for decades. I'm sure he can read the tea leaves if necessary. |
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Post by incandenza on Nov 20, 2024 11:51:57 GMT -5
I'm with green monster here. At some point, spending becomes a zero-sum game -- i.e., what you spend on one player is money you don't have to spend on another player. Is Soto, a heck of a hitter but a somewhat incomplete player, worth all the money you are going to have to pay him, not just in and of itself, but in context of overall spending limits [whatever they are]? Or are you better off getting the alternative players you could get with the same money, and STILL having the money you'd be willing to spend in addition to Soto, however little or much that is, to improve the team further? Plus, signing Soto puts another everyday LHH into the lineup, making the weed out of prospects all that much more perplexing AND necessary in the short - mid term. I think I disagree with all three points here.
1. Spending is not purely zero-sum. I think last offseason the team showed they were willing to put a ton of money into Yamamoto, for instance, because they thought he was worth it. But when they didn't sign him they didn't reallocate the money to Montgomery or Snell or whomever, because (presumably) they didn't think those players were worth the investment. Similarly, I bet the 2025 payroll is significantly higher in a world in which they sign Soto than one in which they don't.
2. Soto would clearly be worth the investment in the short-to-medium term. E.g., fangraphs projects 6.4 WAR for $45 million. The two best players they could get for the same amount of money would be Adames and Kikuchi - 6.3 WAR for $43 million. So the $/WAR value isn't any better, and also you're spreading it over two roster spots rather than one, which deprives you of a chance to get additional value from the second roster spot, which signing Soto would allow. For a team like the Red Sox that has solid players at every roster spot, that's meaningful.
3. Soto hits lefties well. But this point has been argued to death.
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Post by julyanmorley on Nov 20, 2024 12:10:09 GMT -5
The thing about signing Soto is that it's pretty much the only way for this team to spend lots of money on position players. Like I have no idea how Adames is supposed to get added when they have two long term SS, a long term 3B, a long term 2B and excellent infield depth.
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Juan Soto
Nov 20, 2024 12:14:14 GMT -5
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 20, 2024 12:14:14 GMT -5
I'm with green monster here. At some point, spending becomes a zero-sum game -- i.e., what you spend on one player is money you don't have to spend on another player. Is Soto, a heck of a hitter but a somewhat incomplete player, worth all the money you are going to have to pay him, not just in and of itself, but in context of overall spending limits [whatever they are]? Or are you better off getting the alternative players you could get with the same money, and STILL having the money you'd be willing to spend in addition to Soto, however little or much that is, to improve the team further? Plus, signing Soto puts another everyday LHH into the lineup, making the weed out of prospects all that much more perplexing AND necessary in the short - mid term. I think I disagree with all three points here. 1. Spending is not purely zero-sum. I think last offseason the team showed they were willing to put a ton of money into Yamamoto, for instance, because they thought he was worth it. But when they didn't sign him they didn't reallocate the money to Montgomery or Snell or whomever, because (presumably) they didn't think those players were worth the investment. Similarly, I bet the 2025 payroll is significantly higher in a world in which they sign Soto than one in which they don't. 2. Soto would clearly be worth the investment in the short-to-medium term. E.g., fangraphs projects 6.4 WAR for $45 million. The two best players they could get for the same amount of money would be Adames and Kikuchi - 6.3 WAR for $43 million. So the $/WAR value isn't any better, and also you're spreading it over two roster spots rather than one, which deprives you of a chance to get additional value from the second roster spot, which signing Soto would allow. For a team like the Red Sox that has solid players at every roster spot, that's meaningful. 3. Soto hits lefties well. But this point has been argued to death.
In a sense they tried to reallocate it somewhat, but Boras advised Montgomery to turn down the deal the Sox offered Montgomery which regretted and it lead to him missing soring training and completely screwing up his year and his dismissal of Boras for overplaying his hand. Originally I blamed the Red Sox for not getting Montgonery but I was wrong. It was Boras who gummed up the works. I have no idea if he would have pitched well had there been a normal spring training, but I'd guess he would have pitched a lot better but to what extent we'll never know. Likewise when Soto most likely goes elsewhere I expect the Sox to reallocate the money to get a more top of the line option for starting, pen, and/or RH bat. Missing out on Soto could mean getting both Crochet, extending him and adding Snell or Fried instead of just trading for Crochet alone. Losing out on Soto could lead to Sox pushing harder to get Teoscar or maybe the Sox drop 35 something million on 3 relievers rather than 25 million on 2 relievers. Maybe the Sox hang onto their funds and save it for Vlad Jr next year. I'm sure there will be some sort of chain reaction all over the league and with the Sox when Soto signs. |
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Nov 20, 2024 12:14:41 GMT -5
After giving it some thought, we should just sign a free agent hitter who is just as historically good and young as Juan Soto, but bats right handed and who isn’t asking for fair market price
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kwodes
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Post by kwodes on Nov 20, 2024 12:23:19 GMT -5
After giving it some thought, we should just sign a free agent hitter who is just as historically good and young as Juan Soto, but bats right handed and who isn’t asking for fair market price Vladdy is NEXT offseason |
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 20, 2024 12:32:38 GMT -5
After giving it some thought, we should just sign a free agent hitter who is just as historically good and young as Juan Soto, but bats right handed and who isn’t asking for fair market price Vladdy is NEXT offseason Dont want to delve too deeply into this and subtract from Soto while we all wait until the winter meetings, but if Soto signed in New York, and the Sox decided to turn to Hernandez, if the Dodgers werent overly inclined to keep him, would the Sox still go out and try to sign Vladdy Jr in free agency next offseason? In other words would one preclude the other? If the answer is yes that would color the way I feel about signing Teoscar should Soto fall through. |
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kwodes
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Post by kwodes on Nov 20, 2024 12:36:31 GMT -5
Dont want to delve too deeply into this and subtract from Soto while we all wait until the winter meetings, but if Soto signed in New York, and the Sox decided to turn to Hernandez, if the Dodgers werent overly inclined to keep him, would the Sox still go out and try to sign Vladdy Jr in free agency next offseason? In other words would one preclude the other? If the answer is yes that would color the way I feel about signing Teoscar should Soto fall through. honestly, if they miss out on Soto, my first move would be to pivot to Vladdy. Trade for and extend. |
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Juan Soto
Nov 20, 2024 12:43:03 GMT -5
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 20, 2024 12:43:03 GMT -5
Dont want to delve too deeply into this and subtract from Soto while we all wait until the winter meetings, but if Soto signed in New York, and the Sox decided to turn to Hernandez, if the Dodgers werent overly inclined to keep him, would the Sox still go out and try to sign Vladdy Jr in free agency next offseason? In other words would one preclude the other? If the answer is yes that would color the way I feel about signing Teoscar should Soto fall through. honestly, if they miss out on Soto, my first move would be to pivot to Vladdy. Trade for and extend. Dont see Toronto making a trade with the Sox unless its painful plus it would force the trading of Yoshida now which isnt going to happen either, as I dont see Toronto taking back Yoshida at this point. If Toronto is going after Soto that tells me they think they can win this year. I'd just as soon see if Vladdy walks at the end of the year after he gets presumably traded as I dont think the Jays will be in the pennant race come July. |
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Nov 20, 2024 12:46:46 GMT -5
To put it in perspective, Juan Soto and Vladito both basically just played through their age 25 seasons.
Juan Soto:
4088 PA's
.285/.421/.532
201 HR
158 wRC+
36.3 fWAR
Vlad Jr:
3540 PA's
.288/.363/.500
160 HR
137 wRC+
17 fWAR
Vladdy is awesome... and Juan Soto is still significantly better than him. That is how you get to ask for 600 million dollars
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Post by fenwaydouble on Nov 20, 2024 13:05:20 GMT -5
To put it in perspective, Juan Soto and Vladito both basically just played through their age 25 seasons. Juan Soto: 4088 PA's .285/.421/.532 201 HR 158 wRC+ 36.3 fWAR Vlad Jr:3540 PA's .288/.363/.500 160 HR 137 wRC+ 17 fWAR Vladdy is awesome... and Juan Soto is still significantly better than him. That is how you get to ask for 600 million dollars Yeah, to me the thing that separates truly great players is not how good they are in their best season - it's how consistently they perform at that level. Out of six years in the big leagues Vlad has been great twice, really good once, and just okay three times. Soto, meanwhile, has never been worse than a top 15 hitter in baseball, even though he entered the league as a 19-year-old. If Vlad has another elite year in 2025, maybe I'll feel differently. But for now, I'm wary of signing him. Just feels like you're going to be paying a premium for upside that you can never actually depend on. |
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Post by incandenza on Nov 20, 2024 13:12:29 GMT -5
To put it in perspective, Juan Soto and Vladito both basically just played through their age 25 seasons. Juan Soto: 4088 PA's .285/.421/.532 201 HR 158 wRC+ 36.3 fWAR Vlad Jr:3540 PA's .288/.363/.500 160 HR 137 wRC+ 17 fWAR Vladdy is awesome... and Juan Soto is still significantly better than him. That is how you get to ask for 600 million dollars I agree, but also Small Vlad has had a weird career; in the last four years he's had two decent seasons sandwiched by two immaculate ones. If you think the decent seasons were fluky you might have a higher projection for him (though still not as high as Soto's, whose worst seasons have still been immaculate).
But if we've learned one thing about Red Sox ownership it's that they are willing to shell out really big bucks for young guys. And that would be Vladimir - who, going into his age 27 season (and assuming he plays up to projections in 2025), might be looking at a $450-500 million contract offer himself. On the other hand, another meh season from him would make him feel very risky.
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kwodes
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Post by kwodes on Nov 20, 2024 13:17:41 GMT -5
To put it in perspective, Juan Soto and Vladito both basically just played through their age 25 seasons. Juan Soto: 4088 PA's .285/.421/.532 201 HR 158 wRC+ 36.3 fWAR Vlad Jr:3540 PA's .288/.363/.500 160 HR 137 wRC+ 17 fWAR Vladdy is awesome... and Juan Soto is still significantly better than him. That is how you get to ask for 600 million dollars I agree. I'm not suggesting they're equal, I'm just suggesting that they should try and pair devers with another young superstar. Vlad is not Soto, but he's still really good and only 26. baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/vladimir-guerrero-jr-665489 |
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Post by ematz1423 on Nov 20, 2024 13:20:38 GMT -5
To put it in perspective, Juan Soto and Vladito both basically just played through their age 25 seasons. Juan Soto: 4088 PA's .285/.421/.532 201 HR 158 wRC+ 36.3 fWAR Vlad Jr:3540 PA's .288/.363/.500 160 HR 137 wRC+ 17 fWAR Vladdy is awesome... and Juan Soto is still significantly better than him. That is how you get to ask for 600 million dollars I agree, but also Small Vlad has had a weird career; in the last four years he's had two decent seasons sandwiched by two immaculate ones. If you think the decent seasons were fluky you might have a higher projection for him (though still not as high as Soto's, whose worst seasons have still been immaculate).
But if we've learned one thing about Red Sox ownership it's that they are willing to shell out really big bucks for young guys. And that would be Vladimir - who, going into his age 27 season (and assuming he plays up to projections in 2025), might be looking at a $450-500 million contract offer himself. On the other hand, another meh season from him would make him feel very risky.
This is my question on Vlad, like you said he's had two superstar level years and two solid but mostly unspectacular years. Which Vlad is the real one? Glad that isn't a question I need to answer. I'm probably more bullish on Casas than many on the board but frankly I don't really love the idea of paying Vlad a mega contract when you have Casas who I think can match Vlad with the bat for a tiny percentage of what Vlad is going to get. I also don't like signing Vlad to a mega contract to DH. I'm probably going to get ripped but I really don't see Vlad as a great match. |
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Juan Soto
Nov 20, 2024 13:22:00 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 20, 2024 13:22:00 GMT -5
I agree, but also Small Vlad has had a weird career; in the last four years he's had two decent seasons sandwiched by two immaculate ones. If you think the decent seasons were fluky you might have a higher projection for him (though still not as high as Soto's, whose worst seasons have still been immaculate). But if we've learned one thing about Red Sox ownership it's that they are willing to shell out really big bucks for young guys. And that would be Vladimir - who, going into his age 27 season (and assuming he plays up to projections in 2025), might be looking at a $450-500 million contract offer himself. On the other hand, another meh season from him would make him feel very risky.
This is my question on Vlad, like you said he's had two superstar level years and two solid but mostly unspectacular years. Which Vlad is the real one? Glad that isn't a question I need to answer. I'm probably more bullish on Casas than many on the board but frankly I don't really love the idea of paying Vlad a mega contract when you have Casas who I think can match Vlad with the bat for a tiny percentage of what Vlad is going to get. I also don't like signing Vlad to a mega contract to DH. I'm probably going to get ripped but I really don't see Vlad as a great match. Perhaps Vlad Jr can revert to 1b when Casas leaves via free agency? |
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Juan Soto
Nov 20, 2024 13:25:55 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by dirtywaterinla on Nov 20, 2024 13:25:55 GMT -5
I'm with green monster here. At some point, spending becomes a zero-sum game -- i.e., what you spend on one player is money you don't have to spend on another player. Is Soto, a heck of a hitter but a somewhat incomplete player, worth all the money you are going to have to pay him, not just in and of itself, but in context of overall spending limits [whatever they are]? Or are you better off getting the alternative players you could get with the same money, and STILL having the money you'd be willing to spend in addition to Soto, however little or much that is, to improve the team further? Plus, signing Soto puts another everyday LHH into the lineup, making the weed out of prospects all that much more perplexing AND necessary in the short - mid term. (1) This “heck of a hitter” is a once-in-a-generation player (2) You stated a depth of prospects which lends to an ability to carry young cost-controlled talent while having a Soto contract on the books (3) Please read this thread RE: Soto being a LHH — this shouldn’t play into the equation at all |
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Post by ematz1423 on Nov 20, 2024 13:27:38 GMT -5
This is my question on Vlad, like you said he's had two superstar level years and two solid but mostly unspectacular years. Which Vlad is the real one? Glad that isn't a question I need to answer. I'm probably more bullish on Casas than many on the board but frankly I don't really love the idea of paying Vlad a mega contract when you have Casas who I think can match Vlad with the bat for a tiny percentage of what Vlad is going to get. I also don't like signing Vlad to a mega contract to DH. I'm probably going to get ripped but I really don't see Vlad as a great match. Perhaps Vlad Jr can revert to 1b when Casas leaves via free agency? True but even so, I don't love the idea of giving a mega contract to a 1st Baseman since it's generally one of the least impactful positions on the field. I think I'm probably in the minority but I really am not that interested in Vlad Jr. I'll leave it at that and remove myself from the convo though. |
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Juan Soto
Nov 20, 2024 13:35:45 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by finaliz3d on Nov 20, 2024 13:35:45 GMT -5
1) On Yoshida, see the sunk cost fallacy.
2) So you think the outfield would be Campbell-Duran-Anthony? It's not impossible, but I just do not believe Vaughn Grissom and Kristian Campbell are both going to be good. It's possible, but I'd bet on only one of them ending up in the everyday lineup, and it's probably going to be Campbell. I think more than likely it ends up Duran-Rafaela-Anthony, or if we're lucky enough to sign Soto, Soto-Duran-Anthony.
3) Also just an added point on Rafaela, the guy hit better against righties than he did against lefties last year. His minor league stats are kind of mixed on whether he's actually a reverse-splits guy or not, but either way I wouldn't expect him to have like an .800 OPS against lefties next season.
I would love if people stopped using the sunk cost fallacy as a reason for why the Sox should eat a ton of money on some player. Having Yoshida be your DH isn't a sunk cost if you think he can be a fine DH. Keeping Devers at 3B is not a sunk cost if you think his defense is fine at 3B. The idea that how much is owed on a player's deal is no longer relevant once the ink is dry is not the sunk cost fallacy. I don't know why you immediately went to Devers since this was about Yoshida. I just don't think it's worth playing Yoshida as your everyday DH just to try to up his trade value. That sounds like a waste of time to me. The reason I mentioned sunk cost is that I'm not going to be playing somebody just because they have a big contract. And if we're trying to balance out the lineup and get a good right handed hitter in somewhere. DH seems like the most obvious spot. |
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Nov 20, 2024 13:36:00 GMT -5
Brimming with bravado
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Post by incandenza on Nov 20, 2024 13:44:34 GMT -5
"It was very honest."
These are words of despair.
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nomar
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Juan Soto
Nov 20, 2024 13:47:22 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by nomar on Nov 20, 2024 13:47:22 GMT -5
That isn’t inspiring but who knows what intentions Hal had in saying it.
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Post by curll on Nov 20, 2024 13:47:39 GMT -5
Vlad Jr is of no interest to me, and I'm not sure where the idea came from that the Sox are interested in him. Is he pals with Soto or something?
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Post by bloomstaxonomy on Nov 20, 2024 13:52:35 GMT -5
I have fond memories of late-stage Vlad Guerrero Sr. rounding third at Fenway looking like the tin man from The Wizard of Oz and I think Jr. would be a fun player to root for, so I would definitely give him someone else's money. But I don't feel strongly about the fit.
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Juan Soto
Nov 20, 2024 13:54:49 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 20, 2024 13:54:49 GMT -5
Vlad Jr is of no interest to me, and I'm not sure where the idea came from that the Sox are interested in him. Is he pals with Soto or something? Theres no linking, just a constant mention of needing a RH power bat to balance the lineup mentioned by Breslow. No better RH bat to be available soon. The Sox could sign Canha now, lol. Not quite the same. |
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