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Post by bettsonmookie on Nov 12, 2024 9:28:25 GMT -5
Did not see a thread dedicated to the biggest prize on the FA market this off-season, and with some buzz building about the Red Sox being in the sweepstakes, I wanted to get one started.
The obvious gut-reaction is that they are simply driving up the price for their rivals who must retain him at any cost.
However, flying cross country and investing time, resources, and energy into meeting with him is a lot of work to "pretend" to be interested.
IF it were to somehow happen, it would immediately create a need for multiple follow-up moves. The team does not need a LF/DH, particularly one that hits LH. But if you can add Soto, you do it, and figure out "the rest" later.
What would "the rest" entail? At a minimum, it would seem to include either Yoshida or Abreu (or both) departing the org.
Hard to understate how devastating this scenario would be to the Yankees.
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Post by julyanmorley on Nov 12, 2024 9:38:11 GMT -5
Soto + Crochet would still leave you like ~15 million under the tax fwiw
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Post by ematz1423 on Nov 12, 2024 9:41:49 GMT -5
Nobody should be getting their hopes up in regards to Soto but the fact they're meeting with him at least tells me they are willing to pay him a mega contract since it's no secret that's what it's going to take, otherwise why waste either sides time?
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Post by rkarp on Nov 12, 2024 9:43:51 GMT -5
certainly signing Soto, curtails most any additional free agency decisions, but does open all doors in trade, including 2 of the big 4, presumably for arms in the trade market.
Wilyer, Durran, Cedanne, Anthony, Campbell, Arias all could be had in the right deal, if Soto is on board
Durran-LF
Devers-3B
Soto-RF
Casas-1B
Story-SS
Cedanne-CF
Teel-C
Masa-DH
Grissom-2B
is pretty awesome 1 thru 9
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Post by johnnygooch on Nov 12, 2024 9:45:09 GMT -5
I was thinking the same thing with their effort to fly to Southern California just to speak with him. I'm hoping Henry is at the meeting, would also be very cool if Papi and Pedro attended as well seeing as though they were Soto's two favorite players growing up. My guess is that they are going there to gauge his interest and see what their actual chances of signing him are, and if they see a legitimate chance then they will try to sign him through the Winter meetings, and if they don't see a chance, they will quickly pivot to Teoscar and pitching.
In a world where Soto signs here, we would certainly have to move two of Abreu, Yoshida, and Duran. I would also think that it would restrict us from signing one of the top three starters because of the negotiation time and AAV we would have to dedicate to Soto. We would have to focus on trading for Crochet, or trying for a more costly move like Jared Jones or George Kirby.
Either way, I would love to watch Yankees fans in shock from a 25 year old future hall of famer spurning them to sign with us. Offseason hopes are really starting to jump haha.
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Post by crossedsabres8 on Nov 12, 2024 9:53:23 GMT -5
Soto does fill a big need for the Red Sox: a superstar player
Is Soto + Crochet + Sasaki too much to ask for? (yes)
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Juan Soto
Nov 12, 2024 10:08:50 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by jdb on Nov 12, 2024 10:08:50 GMT -5
If we want to starting acting like a big market team and push the tax each year I’m for this. If we want to duck under every other year I don’t see how you can have two players over 75M AAV for a decade.
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Post by bettsonmookie on Nov 12, 2024 10:11:47 GMT -5
If we want to starting acting like a big market team and push the tax each year I’m for this. If we want to duck under every other year I don’t see how you can have two players over 75M AAV for a decade. I think from a roster building perspective it comes with an understanding that they would be leaning into the organization's depth over time to fill more roster spots than they otherwise would. It's not as easy to have $5M here and $7M there on bridge contracts when Soto/Devers are receiving that type of long-term money. However, they have the organizational depth to reasonably project ahead in that way. If they want to build a top-heavy roster in terms of salary, they will absolutely have the supporting cast of capable kids making $700k to offset, both now, tomorrow, and after that. |
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Nov 12, 2024 10:11:57 GMT -5
If it's a question of who has the most money and is the most aggressive between Steven Cohen, John Henry, and Hal Steinbrenner, the odds are certainly not in our favor.
If it's a matter of who is the least "rational" (i.e. we're not going above what our computers say he is worth) in their negotiating between David Stearns, Brian Cashman, and Craig Breslow... that I am curious about.
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Juan Soto
Nov 12, 2024 10:17:36 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by dirtywaterinla on Nov 12, 2024 10:17:36 GMT -5
If we want to starting acting like a big market team and push the tax each year I’m for this. If we want to duck under every other year I don’t see how you can have two players over 75M AAV for a decade. I think from a roster building perspective it comes with an understanding that they would be leaning into the organization's depth over time to fill more roster spots than they otherwise would. It's not as easy to have $5M here and $7M there on bridge contracts when Soto/Devers are receiving that type of long-term money. However, they have the organizational depth to reasonably project ahead in that way. If they want to build a top-heavy roster in terms of salary, they will absolutely have the supporting cast of capable kids making $700k to offset, both now, tomorrow, and after that. This makes me wonder that if they do sign Soto, they cash in on Duran or Casas on a trade. The former I see degrading over time given his play is dependent on his speed and the latter has shown an unwillingness to sign a team friendly extension. |
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Post by julyanmorley on Nov 12, 2024 10:18:17 GMT -5
If it's a matter of who is the least "rational" (i.e. we're not going above what our computers say he is worth) in their negotiating between David Stearns, Brian Cashman, and Craig Breslow... that I am curious about. I'll bet that whatever Soto signs for, ZiPS says it's a fair to positive value deal for the team. |
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nomar
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Posts: 11,618
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Post by nomar on Nov 12, 2024 10:19:00 GMT -5
Boston’s biggest selling point for Soto would have to be the farm. Essentially the Red Sox should be able to show they can afford he and Devers while competing because they have all of this young, cost controlled talent coming up. I think we are quick to dismiss players’ long term vision when it comes to things like that. That being said, we’re competing against three other orgs that seemingly will spend their way out of anything if they have to, which the Red Sox have proven without a shred of doubt that they will not do.
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Post by awalkinthepark on Nov 12, 2024 10:22:13 GMT -5
Over the last 2 years, Soto and Devers are 1 and 2 in opposite field barrels among left handed hitters. I still put the odds at next to nothing that he signs here, but he would wear out the green monster:
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Post by ematz1423 on Nov 12, 2024 10:25:50 GMT -5
Boston’s biggest selling point for Soto would have to be the farm. Essentially the Red Sox should be able to show they can afford he and Devers while competing because they have all of this young, cost controlled talent coming up. I think we are quick to dismiss players’ long term vision when it comes to things like that. That being said, we’re competing against three other orgs that seemingly will spend their way out of anything if they have to, which the Red Sox have proven without a shred of doubt that they will not do. This has to be the pitch I would think. Putting aside the Jays and Mets for a second if you just look at Red Sox Vs Yankees trajectory, you'd have to think the Red Sox are ascending while the Yankees very well might have peaked this year. The Yankees to me seem to have an aging roster with not much in the farm on the way up to help. Maybe I just have my rose colored glasses on and am being biased though. |
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Post by julyanmorley on Nov 12, 2024 10:26:02 GMT -5
That being said, we’re competing against three other orgs that seemingly will spend their way out of anything if they have to, which the Red Sox have proven without a shred of doubt that they will not do. Everyone is reflexively saying Soto is headed to New York, but I don't buy it.
Not enough credence is given to the fact that the Mets and Yankees are likely paying a 110% tax on Soto's salary 2025-2026 and then you have a new CBA which adds uncertainty - you could have 10 more years of an even more punitive ruleset. That is a massive disadvantage here.
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Post by crossedsabres8 on Nov 12, 2024 10:26:10 GMT -5
Red Sox + Soto have a better short and long term outlook than the Yankees + Soto.
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asm18
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Posts: 3,054
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Post by asm18 on Nov 12, 2024 10:27:24 GMT -5
I think from a roster building perspective it comes with an understanding that they would be leaning into the organization's depth over time to fill more roster spots than they otherwise would. It's not as easy to have $5M here and $7M there on bridge contracts when Soto/Devers are receiving that type of long-term money. However, they have the organizational depth to reasonably project ahead in that way. If they want to build a top-heavy roster in terms of salary, they will absolutely have the supporting cast of capable kids making $700k to offset, both now, tomorrow, and after that. This makes me wonder that if they do sign Soto, they cash in on Duran or Casas on a trade. The former I see degrading over time given his play is dependent on his speed and the latter has shown an unwillingness to sign a team friendly extension. I"m firmly in the camp of if you get one of the 5 best baseball players in the Milky Way Galaxy who just turned 26 and is a likely Hall of Famer you can basically shop whoever you want at that point. |
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Juan Soto
Nov 12, 2024 10:40:01 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by alexcorahomevideo on Nov 12, 2024 10:40:01 GMT -5
Red Sox + Soto have a better short and long term outlook than the Yankees + Soto. That’s for sure. The money they have locked up between Stanton Judge Rodon and Cole kind of makes them honestly the worst situation out of the 4 current suitors. Jays have Vlad Jr and even if they let him walk it’s a blank slate and they probably can spend the most due to the lack of financial commitments on the books. Mets aren’t a great situation but their owner has shown that he’ll spend what is necessary. Then you have the Dodgers hanging around. |
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asm18
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Posts: 3,054
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Post by asm18 on Nov 12, 2024 10:49:25 GMT -5
That being said, we’re competing against three other orgs that seemingly will spend their way out of anything if they have to, which the Red Sox have proven without a shred of doubt that they will not do. Everyone is reflexively saying Soto is headed to New York, but I don't buy it.
Not enough credence is given to the fact that the Mets and Yankees are likely paying a 110% tax on Soto's salary 2025-2026 and then you have a new CBA which adds uncertainty - you could have 10 more years of an even more punitive ruleset. That is a massive disadvantage here.
I guess my thing with this is we have two teams where- 1) one is Steve Cohen, who is more obscenely wealthy than any other MLB owner and might simply just not care about CBT penalties no matter how punitive 2) the other is a Yankees team that traded for Soto knowing full well that resigning or extending him would cost an ungodly sum of money, all whilst being aware they were paying Judge, Cole, Stanton, etc. If it turns out Cashman was dead set on trading for him and they didn't actually have a coherent plan for what to do 12 months later... now that would be incredibly funny |
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badfishnbc
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Doing you all a favor and leaving through the gate in right field since 2012.
Posts: 519
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Post by badfishnbc on Nov 12, 2024 10:51:32 GMT -5
This is exactly the kind of performative Hot Stove free agency the Sox have become known for. Sure, take the meeting - it costs nothing! - and then say "hey, we made our best offer, and we just can't go above the price at which we feel the return on investment is there." They loooooove being mentioned by insiders as possible options.
Particularly since the need is, and forever will be, pitching.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Nov 12, 2024 11:02:31 GMT -5
This is exactly the kind of performative Hot Stove free agency the Sox have become known for. Sure, take the meeting - it costs nothing! - and then say "hey, we made our best offer, and we just can't go above the price at which we feel the return on investment is there." They loooooove being mentioned by insiders as possible options. Particularly since the need is, and forever will be, pitching. There's a big difference between reported interest and being involved in a structured set of meetings like this - both the team and the agent wouldn't waste their time if there wasn't some level of willingness to get something done. |
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Nov 12, 2024 11:03:10 GMT -5
I appreciate that people are considering the Red Sox are a little more well-positioned for the future relative to some of the other teams in the mix, and I don't think that argument has wrong, but didn't Soto explicitly say he was going to the team that pays him the most?
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briam
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Post by briam on Nov 12, 2024 11:05:20 GMT -5
Not that it’s a major or deciding factor, but Ortiz and Pedro being DR baseball royalty and heroes in Boston doesn’t hurt.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Nov 12, 2024 11:17:07 GMT -5
I think that if the Sox manage to sign Soto that they will need to keep Ceddanne in CF to cover for him even if JS eventually moves to LF with Anthony taking over RF. It is Abreu who would most likely be on the block short term with Duran to follow if/when Anthony proves himself at the mlb level. Alternatively they could decide to trade Jarren Duran first while he is in his prime which is a huge benefit for the Sox to either gain pitching now or to replenish what the farm system cost would be to acquire top flight arm(s). Then with Abreu to follow especially if Montgomery proves out, a Soto signing could set up the team for the next 5 - 10 years if they play their cards right.
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Post by keninten on Nov 12, 2024 11:22:08 GMT -5
If the Sox sign him what happens in 4-6 years when their young guys start getting paid a lot better? Do we have to jettison players because of a high payroll?
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