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nomar
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Posts: 11,618
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Post by nomar on Nov 12, 2024 11:39:55 GMT -5
If the Sox sign him what happens in 4-6 years when their young guys start getting paid a lot better? Do we have to jettison players because of a high payroll? The threshold will probably jump another 20M in 2027 (the next CBA) with subsequent annual increases which would help offset that. They’d also be substantially more competitive for those next 4-6 years. You can’t have everything, but Boston can handle some big deals as long as they’re actually getting value from them, and Soto is a safe bet to hit for a long time |
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Post by curll on Nov 12, 2024 11:59:13 GMT -5
Huh, the CBA expires after 2026. RSNs are collapsing. Tech companies are bidding for broadcast rights, Manfred said he wants to do away with blackouts. It feels like the Sox were early to the party for Japanese baseball mania with Daisuke, early to the party of owning their own RSN/media company, early to the party of neighborhood takeovers near parks. While the initial purchase price is a pittance compared to today's value, the Sox still have missed the boat on massive value inflation ala Dodgers or Patriots. They've been the best at dev/roster construction with on-field results, so they've got that going for them.
I'm failing to see a market inefficiency, aside from maybe focusing on OBP and contact/defense. But, since the shift is gone, the rules don't favor the latter. This is more or less talking myself into wanting the Sox to spend big, but Soto is the only reasonable splurge and I can't see him signing here given NY/LA's willingness to pay. I don't envy Breslow.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Nov 12, 2024 12:04:26 GMT -5
Why wouldn’t the Red Sox be interested in a 26 y/o free agent considered one of the very best hitters in baseball?
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asm18
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Posts: 3,054
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Post by asm18 on Nov 12, 2024 12:08:13 GMT -5
"The Red Sox absolutely love Juan Soto" - Robert Murray on the Baseball Insiders ( link to episode) |
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chaimtime
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Posts: 1,033
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Post by chaimtime on Nov 12, 2024 12:18:07 GMT -5
Juan Soto hit lefties better than Vlad Jr (by a little) and Teoscar Hernandez (by a lot) last year. His combination of power, bat-to-ball skills, and plate discipline suggest he will age gracefully at the plate. His all-fields approach suggests that he will take full advantage of playing in Fenway. He has always been the best free agent fit on the market.
I have always felt like the most logical explanation for the Red Sox lack of spending in recent years has been a combo of a lack of attractive megadeal options and a desire to keep the books clear for when the next wave of prospects arrived. We’ve seen the first part of that wave establish themselves—Duran, Abreu, Houck, Bello, Crawford, Casas all look like average-to-better big leaguers at this point—and the second wave that’s knocking on the door seems like it’s supposed to be even better. They’re as well-positioned as any team in baseball to offer him a blank check and surround him with a winning roster.
If the Red Sox pulled off a Soto signing and a Crochet trade, they would still have plenty of money to play with on the free agent market and would probably be setting themselves up to be the class of the American League for the next half decade, maybe longer. With a weak AL and a rosy long-term organizational outlook, this is the time for the team to strike. Will they get it done? Tough to say, and tougher to bet against Steve Cohen. But this is the sort of move that would be truly transformational. They should do everything in their power to make it happen.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 12, 2024 12:23:59 GMT -5
"The Red Sox absolutely love Juan Soto" - Robert Murray on the Baseball Insiders ( link to episode) Great to hear, but I'm sure they're not alone in that regard. In this case: love = most money |
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Post by rkarp on Nov 12, 2024 12:29:21 GMT -5
recent free agency decisions/non decisions
Price-fail
Sale-fail
JDM-first time great. second time glad they passed
Montgomery-glad they passed
Devers-lets hope
Bogey-glad they passed
Betts-wish they signed him
Jensen-meh
Yamamoto-time will tell
Masa-fail
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 12, 2024 12:36:32 GMT -5
recent free agency decisions/non decisions Price-fail Sale-fail JDM-first time great. second time glad they passed Montgomery-glad they passed Devers-lets hope Bogey-glad they passed Betts-wish they signed him Jensen-meh Yamamoto-time will tell Masa-fail I wouldnt say Price was a complete failure. He did go 46-24 in his 4 seasons, 2 of which contained some injuries. It's not like he was horrible when they traded him. He wasn't great by any stretch. I'd say he was very overpaid to be effective. Fortunately he won the 3 most important starts of his Boston career - the last 3 starte of the postseason. He easily could have been voted World series MVP. I dont lump him in as a failure the way I would Sandoval or Crawford. Price helped them win a World Series. Folke and Victorino accomplished little in their contracts overall but for one glorious year of their contacts both contributed heavily to a championship. I'd say overpays like that arent a failure. If rather have had Lester than Price but I cant complain about the results. I guess a lot of these types of signings arent success/failure. There are shades of gray involved in a lot of them. |
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Post by incandenza on Nov 12, 2024 13:41:55 GMT -5
If it's a question of who has the most money and is the most aggressive between Steven Cohen, John Henry, and Hal Steinbrenner, the odds are certainly not in our favor. If it's a matter of who is the least "rational" (i.e. we're not going above what our computers say he is worth) in their negotiating between David Stearns, Brian Cashman, and Craig Breslow... that I am curious about. What I'd like to know is, what are their AGI timelines? A Kurzweilian or Yudkowskian may believe we will reach the singularity and/or humanity will end by 2035, in which case, why not go to town on a Soto contract. |
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Post by incandenza on Nov 12, 2024 13:54:07 GMT -5
If anything I've been surprised at the relative lightness of the projections for Soto's salary. MLBTR has 13/600; Ben Clemens has 12/576; FG crowdsource has 13/585. Would anyone not want Soto at those prices?
FWIW the crowdsource has been very accurate on top free agent AAVs the last few years - they're almost always within 20% one way or another.
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Juan Soto
Nov 12, 2024 14:02:03 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by dirtywaterinla on Nov 12, 2024 14:02:03 GMT -5
If it's a question of who has the most money and is the most aggressive between Steven Cohen, John Henry, and Hal Steinbrenner, the odds are certainly not in our favor. If it's a matter of who is the least "rational" (i.e. we're not going above what our computers say he is worth) in their negotiating between David Stearns, Brian Cashman, and Craig Breslow... that I am curious about. What I'd like to know is, what are their AGI timelines? A Kurzweilian or Yudkowskian may believe we will reach the singularity and/or humanity will end by 2035, in which case, why not go to town on a Soto contract. I wasn’t expecting a Kurzweil reference on a Juan Soto thread, but here we are — sincerely, a brain hurt philosophy major |
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Post by rkarp on Nov 12, 2024 14:26:44 GMT -5
recent free agency decisions/non decisions Price-fail Sale-fail JDM-first time great. second time glad they passed Montgomery-glad they passed Devers-lets hope Bogey-glad they passed Betts-wish they signed him Jensen-meh Yamamoto-time will tell Masa-fail I wouldnt say Price was a complete failure. He did go 46-24 in his 4 seasons, 2 of which contained some injuries. It's not like he was horrible when they traded him. He wasn't great by any stretch. I'd say he was very overpaid to be effective. Fortunately he won the 3 most important starts of his Boston career - the last 3 starte of the postseason. He easily could have been voted World series MVP. I dont lump him in as a failure the way I would Sandoval or Crawford. Price helped them win a World Series. Folke and Victorino accomplished little in their contracts overall but for one glorious year of their contacts both contributed heavily to a championship. I'd say overpays like that arent a failure. If rather have had Lester than Price but I cant complain about the results. I guess a lot of these types of signings arent success/failure. There are shades of gray involved in a lot of them. I was commenting about ownerships failure to be in the free agency game based on how their prior signings have performed relative to their contracts. sure, Price had 1 4+ war season, but otherwise he had 3 seasons of 2.3, 2.4, 1.5 seasons. certainly not what the team was paying for. |
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Post by curll on Nov 12, 2024 14:29:54 GMT -5
If it's a question of who has the most money and is the most aggressive between Steven Cohen, John Henry, and Hal Steinbrenner, the odds are certainly not in our favor. If it's a matter of who is the least "rational" (i.e. we're not going above what our computers say he is worth) in their negotiating between David Stearns, Brian Cashman, and Craig Breslow... that I am curious about. What I'd like to know is, what are their AGI timelines? A Kurzweilian or Yudkowskian may believe we will reach the singularity and/or humanity will end by 2035, in which case, why not go to town on a Soto contract. If we account for the upcoming Fusion Economy once the SPARC facility proves viable in Devens, then we're looking at around 3-5 years to build commercial facilities and probably 10-15 years to create a reasonable distribution network and fusion power hubs. CFS also has some impressive AI needs/investment opportunities given keeping plasma at 100M K is...hard. They've got some wild software being developed. Basically spend $600M on Soto, $600M on Commonwealth Fusion Systems, and you'll come out ahead in 30 years. |
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Post by melvinhoggs on Nov 12, 2024 14:36:08 GMT -5
If anything I've been surprised at the relative lightness of the projections for Soto's salary. MLBTR has 13/600; Ben Clemens has 12/576; FG crowdsource has 13/585. Would anyone not want Soto at those prices?
FWIW the crowdsource has been very accurate on top free agent AAVs the last few years - they're almost always within 20% one way or another.
AAV yes, but the crowdsourcing has frequently been short by a year or two on big FA contracts. Judge, Swanson, Turner, Rodon, Bogaerts, Nimmo, Nola, Hader, deGrom. I can't imagine that teams are willing to pay guys like Turner, Judge and Bogaerts to play at 40+ but not Soto, so I wouldn't be surprised at all to see his contract stretch past 13 years. It's also why I personally see him eclipsing $600M. |
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Post by trotnixon7 on Nov 12, 2024 14:38:08 GMT -5
Really 0 chance soto is coming to boston lol. It's just a way to sell to the fans "we tried".
Assuming the other offers are right around 600M and if the offers are close, he'll pick nyy/Mets etc..Henry would have to offer close to 7.
Henry has given absolutely 0 indication he'd be comfortable offering anything close to that.
Maybe he'll offer 5 knowing that won't get it done.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Nov 12, 2024 14:46:55 GMT -5
Really 0 chance soto is coming to boston lol. It's just a way to sell to the fans "we tried". Assuming the other offers are right around 600M and if the offers are close, he'll pick nyy/Mets etc..Henry would have to offer close to 7. Henry has given absolutely 0 indication he'd be comfortable offering anything close to that. Maybe he'll offer 5 knowing that won't get it done. None of this is based on any tangible facts or even common sense, really, but this is the least sensible piece of the whole thing. Why would this be the case? |
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Post by incandenza on Nov 12, 2024 14:47:29 GMT -5
If anything I've been surprised at the relative lightness of the projections for Soto's salary. MLBTR has 13/600; Ben Clemens has 12/576; FG crowdsource has 13/585. Would anyone not want Soto at those prices?
FWIW the crowdsource has been very accurate on top free agent AAVs the last few years - they're almost always within 20% one way or another.
AAV yes, but the crowdsourcing has frequently been short by a year or two on big FA contracts.
Judge, Swanson, Turner, Rodon, Bogaerts, Nimmo, Nola, Hader, deGrom. I can't imagine that teams are willing to pay guys like Turner, Judge and Bogaerts to play at 40+ but not Soto, so I wouldn't be surprised at all to see his contract stretch past 13 years. It's also why I personally see him eclipsing $600M. Definitely true in that Turner/Bogaerts offseason, which in retrospect looks like a bit of a frothy market, but last season they actually tended to overestimate contract length (mostly because of the Boras 4).
Still, I'm inclined to think you're right and 13-14 or even 15 years is more likely than 12. If I had to guess, maybe I'd say 14/630.
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asm18
Veteran
Posts: 3,054
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Post by asm18 on Nov 12, 2024 15:06:52 GMT -5
I'd really like to think that between Boras accepting a meeting with them, and the fact that we here chilling out on a message board can project broadly amount you are going to have to pony up, that a professional baseball front office that is paid to do this for a living knows the amount they need to pay to get Juan Soto. But maybe Breslow, Henry, and the math people should have one last conference call ahead of the pitch meeting tomorrow just to be sure
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Post by ematz1423 on Nov 12, 2024 15:10:35 GMT -5
I'd really like to think that between Boras accepting a meeting with them, and the fact that we here chilling out on a message board can project broadly amount you are going to have to pony up, that a professional baseball front office that is paid to do this for a living knows the amount they need to pay to get Juan Soto. But maybe Breslow, Henry, and the math people should have one last conference call ahead of the pitch meeting tomorrow just to be sure This is my thought as well, they surely have a ballpark idea of how much Soto is going to cost and are at least prepared to offer something in that ballpark. Is it likely that the Sox sign Soto? No it is not but it shouldn't be completely ruled out either. |
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Juan Soto
Nov 12, 2024 15:17:37 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by julyanmorley on Nov 12, 2024 15:17:37 GMT -5
Raising fan expectations about signing Soto and then not signing him is a negative outcome from the team’s pov. It is not their strategic aim to do that. Fans very predictably get upset when that happens.
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Post by trotnixon7 on Nov 12, 2024 15:17:54 GMT -5
Really 0 chance soto is coming to boston lol. It's just a way to sell to the fans "we tried". Assuming the other offers are right around 600M and if the offers are close, he'll pick nyy/Mets etc..Henry would have to offer close to 7. Henry has given absolutely 0 indication he'd be comfortable offering anything close to that. Maybe he'll offer 5 knowing that won't get it done. None of this is based on any tangible facts or even common sense, really, but this is the least sensible piece of the whole thing. Why would this be the case? I think we can draw up a pretty safe conclusion that.. 1. If the sox/Yankees offer similar contracts, he'd pick ny. 2. The Yankees will be prepared to offer 600M. Combine that with henry being very conservative with his spending due to the expansion of FSG..I don't see it. Now MAYBE henry is waking up and sees soto as a way to generate huge buzz for the Red Sox and sees him as worth the 650M, I just don't see him going there. I'd be stunned. |
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asm18
Veteran
Posts: 3,054
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Post by asm18 on Nov 12, 2024 15:25:16 GMT -5
If anything I've been surprised at the relative lightness of the projections for Soto's salary. MLBTR has 13/600; Ben Clemens has 12/576; FG crowdsource has 13/585. Would anyone not want Soto at those prices?
FWIW the crowdsource has been very accurate on top free agent AAVs the last few years - they're almost always within 20% one way or another.
Is the major exception to this last year Yamamoto? I seem to recall the early projections had him at like $200 mil - and then eventually ended up at his eventual $300+ mil contract. Speier from his Reddit AMA had said that the number grew beyond their expectations, so I wonder if they had a similar number in mind? But I might be off there. I just hope they have John Henry primed for the fact that the Soto winning bid dollar amount (depending on years or the extremity of deferrals) might start with a 6 or a 7 |
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Juan Soto
Nov 12, 2024 15:27:36 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by alexcorahomevideo on Nov 12, 2024 15:27:36 GMT -5
I'd really like to think that between Boras accepting a meeting with them, and the fact that we here chilling out on a message board can project broadly amount you are going to have to pony up, that a professional baseball front office that is paid to do this for a living knows the amount they need to pay to get Juan Soto. But maybe Breslow, Henry, and the math people should have one last conference call ahead of the pitch meeting tomorrow just to be sure Soto is 26. You don’t find generational hitters on the market at 26. If you consider his prime to still be the traditional 28-32 age range you’re getting about 5-6 years of peak value at least. I’m not sure they’ll go 15 years with Soto but they’ll be competitive. At least if they’re in this meeting. |
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Post by taiwansox on Nov 12, 2024 15:34:37 GMT -5
I could see this getting stupid to $700M/14 years, but given the lack of elite free agents these days, it’s hard to argue that someone doesn’t go up there (definitely think it’s going above $600M)
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Post by dirtywaterinla on Nov 12, 2024 16:08:55 GMT -5
None of this is based on any tangible facts or even common sense, really, but this is the least sensible piece of the whole thing. Why would this be the case? I think we can draw up a pretty safe conclusion that.. 1. If the sox/Yankees offer similar contracts, he'd pick ny. 2. The Yankees will be prepared to offer 600M. Combine that with henry being very conservative with his spending due to the expansion of FSG..I don't see it. Now MAYBE henry is waking up and sees soto as a way to generate huge buzz for the Red Sox and sees him as worth the 650M, I just don't see him going there. I'd be stunned. I’d throw some cold water over that first conclusion. I don’t think it’s a safe bet he’d choose the Yankees if they match an offer given that he’d be second fiddle to Judge the next 10 years. I think he goes for the highest offer, but I do think him being the sole star talent on a team plays a role into his consideration if there’s multiple matching high bid offers. |
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