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chaimtime
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Post by chaimtime on Nov 12, 2024 16:13:03 GMT -5
None of this is based on any tangible facts or even common sense, really, but this is the least sensible piece of the whole thing. Why would this be the case? I think we can draw up a pretty safe conclusion that.. 1. If the sox/Yankees offer similar contracts, he'd pick ny. 2. The Yankees will be prepared to offer 600M. Combine that with henry being very conservative with his spending due to the expansion of FSG..I don't see it. Now MAYBE henry is waking up and sees soto as a way to generate huge buzz for the Red Sox and sees him as worth the 650M, I just don't see him going there. I'd be stunned. I’m not so sure about that. His background with the two teams are as follows: Red Sox: growing up cheering for his childhood hero, David Ortiz Yankees: watching the rest of his team completely quit in the World Series just a few weeks ago If the money is the same I feel like that can’t be a bad thing for the Red Sox. The Sox have a much better medium-term outlook than the Yankees, too. |
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Post by wcsoxfan on Nov 12, 2024 16:24:02 GMT -5
recent free agency decisions/non decisions Price-fail Sale-fail JDM-first time great. second time glad they passed Montgomery-glad they passed Devers-lets hope Bogey-glad they passed Betts-wish they signed him Jensen-meh Yamamoto-time will tell Masa-fail I think this well illustrates just how valuable young free agents are over 30+yo free agents when giving out long contracts. |
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Post by wcsoxfan on Nov 12, 2024 16:34:04 GMT -5
For those throwing around huge numbers like '600mil', are you thinking that the amount is undeferred? This make a huge difference in these mega contracts as the CBT AAV goes down by about 30% for the deferred amount (assuming normal 10yr @ 5% deferments).
I can't imagine Soto making 140mil more in REAL dollars than what Ohtani got (~460mil) given Ohtani's pitching and ability to bring in additional revenue which Soto can't come close to matching. I'm guessing we see something around 41-42mil in AAV (after deferments are calculated) for 12-13 years.
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Post by Darwin's Curve on Nov 12, 2024 17:09:41 GMT -5
I'd really like to think that between Boras accepting a meeting with them, and the fact that we here chilling out on a message board can project broadly amount you are going to have to pony up, that a professional baseball front office that is paid to do this for a living knows the amount they need to pay to get Juan Soto. But maybe Breslow, Henry, and the math people should have one last conference call ahead of the pitch meeting tomorrow just to be sure Soto is 26. You don’t find generational hitters on the market at 26. If you consider his prime to still be the traditional 28-32 age range you’re getting about 5-6 years of peak value at least. I’m not sure they’ll go 15 years with Soto but they’ll be competitive. At least if they’re in this meeting. I've never been too clear on this "generational hitter" phrase. What exactly does it mean? |
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chaimtime
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Post by chaimtime on Nov 12, 2024 17:22:43 GMT -5
Soto is 26. You don’t find generational hitters on the market at 26. If you consider his prime to still be the traditional 28-32 age range you’re getting about 5-6 years of peak value at least. I’m not sure they’ll go 15 years with Soto but they’ll be competitive. At least if they’re in this meeting. I've never been too clear on this "generational hitter" phrase. What exactly does it mean? Every hitter as good as Juan Soto at his age is an inner circle Hall of Famer, a legend of the game. Seems pretty obvious what people mean by it. |
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Post by 0ap0 on Nov 12, 2024 17:28:53 GMT -5
For those throwing around huge numbers like '600mil', are you thinking that the amount is undeferred? This make a huge difference in these mega contracts as the CBT AAV goes down by about 30% for the deferred amount (assuming normal 10yr @ 5% deferments). Why would they defer anything here? It made sense for Ohtani as a tax dodge, but otherwise it's a wash that benefits nobody. When people are talking about 600M+ for Soto that's just what people think it will cost. There's no special magic gimmick that makes that number smaller. |
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Post by bettsonmookie on Nov 12, 2024 17:31:12 GMT -5
Soto is 26. You don’t find generational hitters on the market at 26. If you consider his prime to still be the traditional 28-32 age range you’re getting about 5-6 years of peak value at least. I’m not sure they’ll go 15 years with Soto but they’ll be competitive. At least if they’re in this meeting. I've never been too clear on this "generational hitter" phrase. What exactly does it mean? One of clearly the greatest hitters of the generation he played in. |
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Post by Darwin's Curve on Nov 12, 2024 17:38:58 GMT -5
I've never been too clear on this "generational hitter" phrase. What exactly does it mean? One of clearly the greatest hitters of the generation he played in. I've heard it used as "the best of his generation" - which makes me wonder about Trout and Harper and Judge. Aren't they in the same generation? Aren't they better? If it's "one of the top 10 guys" in OPS, then what's the point of the label? |
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Juan Soto
Nov 12, 2024 17:57:45 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by soxfaninnj on Nov 12, 2024 17:57:45 GMT -5
I would make sure to put in an opt out after the 4th year.
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badfishnbc
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Doing you all a favor and leaving through the gate in right field since 2012.
Posts: 519
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Juan Soto
Nov 12, 2024 17:58:09 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by badfishnbc on Nov 12, 2024 17:58:09 GMT -5
Red Sox: growing up cheering for his childhood hero, David Ortiz While I appreciate the persistent sentiment that Papi and Pedro could help sway things, it certainly didn’t convince him to sign with Boston in 2015, nor has any other Dominican FA ever been tempted by the allure of sporting the same Boston jerseys as those luminaries. |
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Post by wcsoxfan on Nov 12, 2024 18:05:15 GMT -5
Why would they defer anything here? It made sense for Ohtani as a tax dodge, but otherwise it's a wash that benefits nobody. When people are talking about 600M+ for Soto that's just what people think it will cost. There's no special magic gimmick that makes that number smaller. Deferments aren't just for Ohtani, they exist in many (perhaps most) large contracts. Devers, for instance, has 75mil deferred. If people think that Soto is actually getting that much, undeferred, they don't follow player contracts (or they expect Soto to blow past Ohtani and everyone else by an oscene margin). Ohtani isn't just getting a tax dodge (possible, but complicated and speculative atm), he's getting less money in current value, so his 700mil contract is really much closer to being 460mil. If we assume players aren't going to average the calculated interest rate (usually ~5%) on the contract by investing, then it's a good deal for the player. It's similar to lottery winners choosing to not take the lump sum. Agents like deferments because they artificially makes the numbers look bigger. Shock Jocks like deferments because the big numbers get more clicks. At this point I'm assuming the rumors are either completely made up, coming from Soto's agent or coming from people seeking clicks. Add: deferments also matter for team cash flow |
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Juan Soto
Nov 12, 2024 18:17:32 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Nov 12, 2024 18:17:32 GMT -5
I would make sure to put in an opt out after the 4th year. Club or player? Good luck with the former |
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Post by fenwaydouble on Nov 12, 2024 18:18:09 GMT -5
One of clearly the greatest hitters of the generation he played in. I've heard it used as "the best of his generation" - which makes me wonder about Trout and Harper and Judge. Aren't they in the same generation? Aren't they better? If it's "one of the top 10 guys" in OPS, then what's the point of the label? Those guys are all more than six years older than Soto, and I’d say that in baseball terms that means they are not part of his generation. And no, Harper is not a better hitter than Soto - that kind of makes me think you’re just underrating how good Soto’s bat is. |
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Juan Soto
Nov 12, 2024 18:32:23 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by soxfaninnj on Nov 12, 2024 18:32:23 GMT -5
I would make sure to put in an opt out after the 4th year. Club or player? Good luck with the former Player option with the hope he wants a second bite of the free agent apple and opts out and leaves. |
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Juan Soto
Nov 12, 2024 18:41:01 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by teddyballgame9 on Nov 12, 2024 18:41:01 GMT -5
I understand the generational talent conversation, but he was in a line up with Judge and I don’t think the combination of him and Devers is the same. I’m sure most won’t agree, but I’d rather field and all around team for 600 million than one player that can get hurt and doesn’t necessarily guarantee success. When I think back on how the Mariners lost Griffey, Arod and Johnson and went on to win 116 games, it makes me not want to invest the GDP of Samoa in one player. Most agree that pitching is the issue so let’s fix the more glaring issue ( pitching and defense)
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,027
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 12, 2024 18:55:37 GMT -5
I may well be an absurd optimist, but I can do this in less time then it takes to translates the NL park names from the company that bought them. Last 3 seasons, all barrels hit to the opposite field by LH hittets, xwOBA vs.wOBA, i.e, quality of contact vs.results.
Team PA xwOBA wOBA Dif
Cin 52 1.108 1.634 .526
Bos 63 1.133 1.446 .313
Hou 50 1.048 1.358 .310
NYM 48 1.004 1.273 .269
ChC 44 1.026 1.288 .262
Col 64 1.073 1.327 .254
Phi 41 1.245 1.466 .221
Det 47 1.136 1.288 .152
Oak* 41 1.105 1.240 .135
Arz 43 1.064 1.181 .117
SD 42 1.058 1.173 .115
SF 61 1.086 1.176 .090
TB 31 1.076 1.158 .082
LAD 52 1.067 1.145 .078
Tor 39 1.133 1.202 .069
Tex 60 1.083 1.119 .036
Sea 42 1.136 1.142 .006
Was 73 1.148 1.149 .001
Mil 64 1.131 1.122 -.009
Min 55 1.082 1.069 -.013
ChW 36 1.143 1.110 -.033
Mia 60 1.215 1.155 -.060
Cle 28 1.110 1.007 -.103
Atl 45 1.059 .901 -.158
KC 40 1.158 .903 -.255
StL 58 1.085 .775 -.310
NYY 41 1.181 .856 -.325
Pit 56 1.101 .710 -.391
LAA 51 1.169 .753 -.416
Bal 46 1.033 .547 -.486
Thoughts forthcoming.
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Post by Darwin's Curve on Nov 12, 2024 18:57:42 GMT -5
I've heard it used as "the best of his generation" - which makes me wonder about Trout and Harper and Judge. Aren't they in the same generation? Aren't they better? If it's "one of the top 10 guys" in OPS, then what's the point of the label? Those guys are all more than six years older than Soto, and I’d say that in baseball terms that means they are not part of his generation. And no, Harper is not a better hitter than Soto - that kind of makes me think you’re just underrating how good Soto’s bat is. What do you think it should be? A cherry-picked 5 years to either side of the player? It seems weird you could get a "generational" player that plays alongside the majority of active major league players for 5-10 years but isn't "part of" their generation. As far as Harper, if he makes you uncomfortable, you can read my point as "Trout, Judge, Ohtani, and Alvarez." |
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Nov 12, 2024 19:02:48 GMT -5
If Soto isn't a guy to give a mega contract to then no one is. He's worth 550-600 million and he will get it.
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Post by incandenza on Nov 12, 2024 19:27:37 GMT -5
If anything I've been surprised at the relative lightness of the projections for Soto's salary. MLBTR has 13/600; Ben Clemens has 12/576; FG crowdsource has 13/585. Would anyone not want Soto at those prices?
FWIW the crowdsource has been very accurate on top free agent AAVs the last few years - they're almost always within 20% one way or another.
Is the major exception to this last year Yamamoto? I seem to recall the early projections had him at like $200 mil - and then eventually ended up at his eventual $300+ mil contract. Speier from his Reddit AMA had said that the number grew beyond their expectations, so I wonder if they had a similar number in mind? But I might be off there. I just hope they have John Henry primed for the fact that the Soto winning bid dollar amount (depending on years or the extremity of deferrals) might start with a 6 or a 7 Yeah, Yamamoto was way beyond projections, which were generally around or a bit below $200 million. So the question is, was that due to an underestimation of how much teams value youth or was it specific to Yamamoto?
The closest thing to a premium super young position player free agent in recent years was probably 27-year-old Carlos Correa in 2022, and the Mets offered him 12/315 (before all that weird medical stuff caused the deal to fall through) which is not like an outlandish contract size.
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Post by incandenza on Nov 12, 2024 19:46:00 GMT -5
For those throwing around huge numbers like '600mil', are you thinking that the amount is undeferred? This make a huge difference in these mega contracts as the CBT AAV goes down by about 30% for the deferred amount (assuming normal 10yr @ 5% deferments). I can't imagine Soto making 140mil more in REAL dollars than what Ohtani got (~460mil) given Ohtani's pitching and ability to bring in additional revenue which Soto can't come close to matching. I'm guessing we see something around 41-42mil in AAV (after deferments are calculated) for 12-13 years. Well in a sense the later years of a 13-year contract is "deferred money," no? E.g., I predicted 14/630 above for an AAV of $45 million, which would be paid out through 2038. I will graciously allow you to do the math on what that works out to in 2024 dollars.
More straightforwardly, though, I just think that's close to what he's going to project to be worth in $/WAR terms. Steamer projects him at 6.8 WAR for age 26. Say he peaks at the level for the next 5 years, then declines .5 WAR/year, and you come out to 72.7 WAR over 14 years. At $630 million total that's under $8.7 million/WAR, which is not a bad deal at all when you factor in expected inflation.
(In fact that seems so reasonable that now I wonder if I'm lowballing it...)
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Juan Soto
Nov 12, 2024 19:48:20 GMT -5
via mobile
cdj likes this
Post by pappyman99 on Nov 12, 2024 19:48:20 GMT -5
^^ for the above
I’m doing this deal all day and seeing if he will do 12 for $616 million just to try and tab a year off
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Post by Don Caballero on Nov 12, 2024 20:06:32 GMT -5
They need a vulgar display of power. Since 18 team, the Red Sox have NOT been a big market team. That’s fine for nerdy fans, but this is the time to assert dominance again. I don’t think you achieve that by just handing out big contracts, you need at least one really stupid contract. There’s no better guy to get one than Soto.
But like I said before, I’ll believe it when I see it. They haven’t earned my faith my back since trading Mookie.
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Post by notstarboard on Nov 12, 2024 20:11:06 GMT -5
If anything I've been surprised at the relative lightness of the projections for Soto's salary. MLBTR has 13/600; Ben Clemens has 12/576; FG crowdsource has 13/585. Would anyone not want Soto at those prices?
FWIW the crowdsource has been very accurate on top free agent AAVs the last few years - they're almost always within 20% one way or another.
Me! I honestly don't get it. He's a beast, yes, but he's a borderline DH set to make $600 million. Do people think he can fake it at more than LF at Fenway or RF at Yankee Stadium?
I am having a lot of difficulty accepting that kind of price tag for Soto because of one Yordan Alvarez. In 2022, when Alvarez was almost 24 going on 25, the Astros bought out three arb years and extended him for three more years, resulting in a 6 year deal at $19.7 million AAV. At the time of his extension, Alvarez was rocking a career 155 wRC+, which was almost identical to both Soto's career wRC+ (154) and Soto's wRC+ from the day Alvarez made the majors until the day Alvarez signed his extension (159). He's about a year and a half older than Soto and was promoted a couple years later, so there's room for quibbling, but I view them as having similar value, both with the bat and in the field. What Soto adds in eye, he gives right back in power.
The Astros got Alvarez's age 28-30 seasons in exchange for buying out his age 25-27 arb years. He will hit free agency at 31, so there's very little downside risk in the deal. Meanwhile, the projections for Soto put him under contract through his age 37 or 38 season at $45-50 million AAV. That means there's plenty of albatross risk if he can't keep hitting at an otherworldly level. Do the folks who want Soto at $600 million think that Yordan Alvarez was an absolute heist on his current deal and a top 5 most valuable player in baseball? If not, what's the big difference here?
People have been saying that Soto's eye should allow him to age gracefully, but I don't necessarily agree. I see the risk as pretty average. If he continues to hit at a high level, sure, I can see his awesome eye making up for declining bat speed. But if he ever loses the ability to do damage, pitchers can just attack him in the zone, and the utility of his elite eye goes way down; that could actually cause his offensive output to fall off a cliff.
Then there's the fact that he would be a poor roster fit in Boston. While Soto does hit lefties well, he has significant R/L splits, which means opponents would still get significant value from lining up their LHPs. Then there's Yoshida, who is on a hard deal to move right now, and who occupies basically the same role that Soto would. Do folks want to just dump him and effectively pay Soto close to $60 million a year to DH once you add Yoshida's dead money? Yoshida has been battling injuries but has flashed a high ceiling, so I don't like the idea of selling him at rock bottom. I don't want to see this happen soon, but I also think Devers would ideally move to DH at some point towards the second half of his deal, and locking up Soto would mean one of them would have to play the field well into their 30s. Sure, we could trade one, but only if the deal isn't underwater by then.
I would like to see that vast majority of the money spent this offseason go into pitching. Let the young position player talent shine through and give Yoshida a chance to redeem himself. Consider creative trades to further improve the pitching staff and the roster's R/L balance, especially while trading from areas of depth.
Edit: I should say that this is all predicated on the assumption that ownership will not spend over the tax line in perpetuity. In other words, I'm treating it as at least somewhat of a zero-sum game. Signing Soto and dumping Yoshida might roughly mean not signing, say, Fried and Snell. I'd much rather go the pitching and defense route.
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Post by stevedillard on Nov 12, 2024 20:12:55 GMT -5
I refuse to believe we're players for Soto until Heyman reports it.
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Post by curll on Nov 12, 2024 20:15:30 GMT -5
They need a vulgar display of power. Since 18 team, the Red Sox have NOT been a big market team. That’s fine for nerdy fans, but this is the time to assert dominance again. I don’t think you achieve that by just handing out big contracts, you need at least one really stupid contract. There’s no better guy to get one than Soto. But like I said before, I’ll believe it when I see it. They haven’t earned my faith my back since trading Mookie. Getting Soto would certainly take us to a new level. Obviously, I'm a huge fan of his ability to walk, and regular people say his game is hollow because of it. They must live in a hole because that logic is no good and the rise of Soto's HR ability is undeniable. This love I have for Soto is borderline fucking hostile, but I understand the realities and I'm going to to start spouting off like my mouth of war be driven by demons. I just really want Soto. |
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