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Post by julyanmorley on Nov 20, 2024 13:57:01 GMT -5
from Klapisch last night
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Juan Soto
Nov 20, 2024 14:07:06 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by kwodes on Nov 20, 2024 14:07:06 GMT -5
Roster Resource has the Yankees at $245,000,000 payroll BEFORE Soto. If they sign him to a 45 mill AAV, now they're up to $290 without addressing any other needs. Steinbrenner has said this year that a $300 million payroll isn't sustainable. I don't know if I see a scenario where the Yankees are his preferred outcome. If we're talking money, Mets will be #1. If we're talking life of the contract, (I'm biased obviously) Red Sox have the brightest future. |
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Post by trotnixon7 on Nov 20, 2024 14:14:46 GMT -5
If Henry signs Soto then I guess that would answer the question of whether Henry is willing to spend - a neatly self-resolving problem. Yeah I was thinking the same. If you're willing to give Soto what it's going to take to sign him, the question answers itself. Yes and no. To me actual spending is spending 15-20M over the 1st tax threshold (250-260M or so). If boston pays soto/trades for crochet and does little else, I wouldn't say they spent. |
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Post by incandenza on Nov 20, 2024 14:18:36 GMT -5
This sounds like a player who is pretty interested in the shape of the organization he'll be signing up with. Which is not the case for all of them.
That gives the Red Sox an angle, and I think it was probably smart for them to emphasize their top prospects in their presentation to him.
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asm18
Veteran
Posts: 3,072
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Post by asm18 on Nov 20, 2024 14:19:59 GMT -5
Yeah I was thinking the same. If you're willing to give Soto what it's going to take to sign him, the question answers itself. Yes and no. To me actual spending is spending 15-20M over the 1st tax threshold (250-260M or so). If boston pays soto/trades for crochet and does little else, I wouldn't say they spent. If getting Juan Soto and Garrett Crochet in the same offseason is miserly, I sure hope John Henry is Scrooge this Christmas |
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Post by incandenza on Nov 20, 2024 14:25:29 GMT -5
Yes and no. To me actual spending is spending 15-20M over the 1st tax threshold (250-260M or so). If boston pays soto/trades for crochet and does little else, I wouldn't say they spent. If getting Juan Soto and Garrett Crochet in the same offseason is miserly, I sure hope John Henry is Scrooge this Christmas It's a bit funny that by this logic adding Soto and Crochet on an extension might not demonstrate a commitment to spending big, but if they then add two $5 million relievers they would enter that rarefied air. |
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Nov 20, 2024 14:44:50 GMT -5
This sounds like a player who is pretty interested in the shape of the organization he'll be signing up with. Which is not the case for all of them.
That gives the Red Sox an angle, and I think it was probably smart for them to emphasize their top prospects in their presentation to him.
This is honestly the only way I think he chooses Boston. The Sox won’t outbid the Mets and probably not the Dodgers but you could argue they have the healthiest future of all these teams. |
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Post by trotnixon7 on Nov 20, 2024 14:45:27 GMT -5
Yes and no. To me actual spending is spending 15-20M over the 1st tax threshold (250-260M or so). If boston pays soto/trades for crochet and does little else, I wouldn't say they spent. If getting Juan Soto and Garrett Crochet in the same offseason is miserly, I sure hope John Henry is Scrooge this Christmas But i wouldn't say that's "spending". Crochet is making like 3M. Most big markets get above that 1st cbt line..at least if they hadn't the season before. Landing one of those bigger arms, signing soto, making a trade for a cost controlled big name (like a crochet) is the type of aggressive offseason boston really needs to get into that relevant/WS mix. |
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Post by julyanmorley on Nov 20, 2024 14:45:47 GMT -5
I would not be shocked if their offseason was Soto, Crochet, Danny Jansen and a reliever trade and they ended up under the tax for one last year before they're about to be stuck going over for a while.
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Post by bojacksoxfan on Nov 20, 2024 14:55:20 GMT -5
This sounds like a player who is pretty interested in the shape of the organization he'll be signing up with. Which is not the case for all of them.
That gives the Red Sox an angle, and I think it was probably smart for them to emphasize their top prospects in their presentation to him.
It sounds to me like a player who just wants his team to keep spending a lot of money on veteran players who can help him win now. I mean, that's what the vast majority of players and managers want from their teams want. When does "commitment to excellence" not mean spend a lot of money on win now players? And what's the easiest way to improve a team? Spend a lot of money on win now players. |
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Nov 20, 2024 14:58:31 GMT -5
Calling Juan Soto "a heck of a hitter" is underselling him pretty hard. You have to remember, when I first became a baseball fan it was watching Ted Williams. Juan Soto is a heck of a hitter. But he ain't no Ted Williams. But of course, Williams, it can be argued, wasn't a generational talent - he was an all-time talent. |
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badfishnbc
Veteran
Doing you all a favor and leaving through the gate in right field since 2012.
Posts: 519
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Post by badfishnbc on Nov 20, 2024 15:16:37 GMT -5
This is honestly the only way I think he chooses Boston. The Sox won’t outbid the Mets and probably not the Dodgers but you could argue they have the healthiest future of all these teams. Not sure I agree with your comment about the healthiest future - at the end of the day, it's about having players who perform and are proven, and until shown otherwise, that's the Dodgers, with their world champion team of players on long-term deals and Top 5 player development machine farm system. |
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Post by dirtywaterinla on Nov 20, 2024 15:27:48 GMT -5
I would not be shocked if their offseason was Soto, Crochet, Danny Jansen and a reliever trade and they ended up under the tax for one last year before they're about to be stuck going over for a while. I really hope they don’t sign Jansen and opt for Carson Kelly. |
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Post by incandenza on Nov 20, 2024 15:33:14 GMT -5
This sounds like a player who is pretty interested in the shape of the organization he'll be signing up with. Which is not the case for all of them.
That gives the Red Sox an angle, and I think it was probably smart for them to emphasize their top prospects in their presentation to him.
It sounds to me like a player who just wants his team to keep spending a lot of money on veteran players who can help him win now. I mean, that's what the vast majority of players and managers want from their teams want. When does "commitment to excellence" not mean spend a lot of money on win now players? And what's the easiest way to improve a team? Spend a lot of money on win now players. It sounds to me like Soto has things a little more thought out than that. It would not make much sense for his concern with the Yankees to merely be whether or not they'll spend; the Yankees have and will into the indefinite future be one of the highest-spending teams in the game, and everyone knows that.
On the other hand, his "sharing his feelings about the Yankees' future" and "pointing out where the Bombers need to improve" sounds like someone who is looking for a deeper sense of the organizational vision. That's also suggested by his asking about how the Red Sox do their player evaluation.
Which makes sense for someone who's probably going to sign a 13- or 14-year contract. "Spend a lot of money on win now players" is not in fact the best way to guarantee success over that sort of timeframe. Soto is probably smart enough to understand that.
ADD: And see below about Soto asking about the player development pipeline.
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Juan Soto
Nov 20, 2024 16:00:32 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by fenwaydouble on Nov 20, 2024 16:00:32 GMT -5
This is honestly the only way I think he chooses Boston. The Sox won’t outbid the Mets and probably not the Dodgers but you could argue they have the healthiest future of all these teams. Not sure I agree with your comment about the healthiest future - at the end of the day, it's about having players who perform and are proven, and until shown otherwise, that's the Dodgers, with their world champion team of players on long-term deals and Top 5 player development machine farm system. The Dodgers are really in uncharted waters right now. Up until very recently even the rich teams made a point to reset the tax every couple of years before the punishments got too bad. Now, LA appears willing to just live above that line - and if they signed Soto, they’d truly have no shot of dipping below it at any time in the foreseeable future. It’s possible that they’re going to make so much money as the new kings of the sport that this gambit pays off. But they may also be flying too close to the sun - can they keep that player development machine running if their draft picks keep getting pushed back? |
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nomar
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Posts: 11,622
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Post by nomar on Nov 20, 2024 16:12:20 GMT -5
The truth is that NYY can’t afford his contract, their current contracts, and continue to spend to fill holes. They’ll have to rely on the farm, and theirs is worse than NYM’s and far worse than Boston’s. Seems like maybe Soto realizes that.
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Post by incandenza on Nov 20, 2024 16:17:38 GMT -5
Here would be my concern with the Dodgers' future...
2027 payroll obligations, with player ages:
Shohei (33): $46 million Glasnow (33): $27 million Yamamoto (28): $27 million Betts (34): $26 million Freeman (37): $25 million Smith (32): $12 million
Setting Yamamoto aside, that's a lot of the roster tied up in really expensive guys who are not guaranteed to be super productive at those ages. And even out to 2031 they still have:
Shohei (37) Yamamoto (32) Betts (38) Smith (36)
They have a good farm system and possibly an infinite amount of money, so in general I wouldn't say they're in bad shape by any means. But this sort of spending spree is how you end up with the sort of mire the Yankees found themselves in in the mid-2010s.
In short, the Dodgers are absolutely maximized to be behemoths right now. But unless they really hit with their farm system, that becomes less and less true with each passing year.
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Post by kwodes on Nov 20, 2024 16:20:07 GMT -5
The truth is that NYY can’t afford his contract, their current contracts, and continue to spend to fill holes. They’ll have to rely on the farm, and theirs is worse than NYM’s and far worse than Boston’s. Seems like maybe Soto realizes that. This post screams that the Yankees are at a disadvantage and the Red Sox have a big advantage |
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,622
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Post by nomar on Nov 20, 2024 16:23:33 GMT -5
The truth is that NYY can’t afford his contract, their current contracts, and continue to spend to fill holes. They’ll have to rely on the farm, and theirs is worse than NYM’s and far worse than Boston’s. Seems like maybe Soto realizes that. This post screams that the Yankees are at a disadvantage and the Red Sox have a big advantage Well them and the Mets who I would still consider favorites |
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Nov 20, 2024 16:25:57 GMT -5
You know those TV/movie scenes where a character is asked a question and is like "well, I'm glad you asked..." and then breaks out into a musical number? That's how I imagine Craig Breslow when Soto asked about their player development.
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Post by bloomstaxonomy on Nov 20, 2024 16:26:01 GMT -5
Steinbrenner is so playing dumb lol "no idea why he wants to know about player development, maybe he's curious about the quality of the batting cages"
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Post by Darwin's Curve on Nov 20, 2024 16:27:00 GMT -5
It sounds to me like a player who just wants his team to keep spending a lot of money on veteran players who can help him win now. I mean, that's what the vast majority of players and managers want from their teams want. When does "commitment to excellence" not mean spend a lot of money on win now players? And what's the easiest way to improve a team? Spend a lot of money on win now players. It sounds to me like Soto has things a little more thought out than that. It would not make much sense for his concern with the Yankees to merely be whether or not they'll spend; the Yankees have and will into the indefinite future be one of the highest-spending teams in the game, and everyone knows that.
On the other hand, his "sharing his feelings about the Yankees' future" and "pointing out where the Bombers need to improve" sounds like someone who is looking for a deeper sense of the organizational vision. That's also suggested by his asking about how the Red Sox do their player evaluation.
Which makes sense for someone who's probably going to sign a 13- or 14-year contract. "Spend a lot of money on win now players" is not in fact the best way to guarantee success over that sort of timeframe. Soto is probably smart enough to understand that.
Soto came up with Washington and won a ring in 2019 with the Scherzer/Strasberg/Rendon/Turner club. The wheels came off in 2020 and remained lost in 2021. He was traded to the Padres halfway through 2022 and stayed for 2023. They got into the post season then missed the playoffs entirely. It's interesting to consider what Soto might want. Post-season glory is probably the best shorthand for it, maybe tempered by living in a city he prefers. As far as the "Big Man" theory goes, he was the WAR leader for the 2021 Nat's club. (Technically he was also the WAR leader on the equally awful 2022 Nat's club, even after he was traded.) But how good can that make one feel - excelling on a go-nowhere team? I don't know how smart he is or what he's prioritizing, but he has the experience with teams that don't sustain (Nationals) and go through cycles. He's also had the overpaid veterans experience twice with SDP and NYY. If I were going to engage in some armchair pop-psychoanalysis, I'd say that Soto is a man who takes walks. And really the walk is a sign he realizes he needs good teammates. So if I had to guess, if winning is driving him, among teams that can offer him money in the top bracket, plus a good city to live in, he's probably going to look for roster-depth through his contract. How many times will he go to the WS? Is there a commitment to getting there? Will the owners fold up and waste his good years like the Nats did? And there. . .the Sox seem to have as good a chance as the Yanks or the Mets. |
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,622
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Post by nomar on Nov 20, 2024 16:29:22 GMT -5
Steinbrenner is so playing dumb lol "no idea why he wants to know about player development, maybe he's curious about the quality of the batting cages" He probably brought out Spencer Jones and measured him like he was in a state fair’s biggest pumpkin competition |
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Post by bloomstaxonomy on Nov 20, 2024 16:30:28 GMT -5
Regardless of who signs where, the real Juan Soto is the friends we made along the way.
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Post by hammerhead on Nov 20, 2024 16:33:52 GMT -5
The truth is that NYY can’t afford his contract, their current contracts, and continue to spend to fill holes. They’ll have to rely on the farm, and theirs is worse than NYM’s and far worse than Boston’s. Seems like maybe Soto realizes that. This post screams that the Yankees are at a disadvantage and the Red Sox have a big advantage This "Quote" seems to me like Juan just had a really impactful meeting with a certain team that impressed him with teamspeak like Hashtag "Player Development Pipeline", Hashtag "Boimetrics" , Hastag "Trajekt Arc Hitting simulator" etc. and Soto went to Hal and said "Why don't you guys have these things?" And Hal was like "Yeah, YeH, Yah, we have all that stuff it was hidden under a tarp at the minor league Spring Training facility in Florida, you're new, so you didnt get a chance to see...... Did I mention the dumptruck of thousand dollar bills we have waiting for you. ?" |
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