|
Juan Soto
Nov 27, 2024 21:46:19 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by blizzards39 on Nov 27, 2024 21:46:19 GMT -5
I think about how the Sox probably would've been better off giving Xander an extra couple million on his extension rather than giving him his opt out. Ya but it worked out realy good for Xander. As for Soto id be shocked if there were not several opt outs. May even be an annual option for him. How bout 3 year $60 M per and then $50M anual with opt outs each year for 10. 13 Y 680 M
|
|
asm18
Veteran
Posts: 3,072
|
Post by asm18 on Nov 27, 2024 23:08:29 GMT -5
How about the Red Sox actually sign Soto first before concerns about potential opt outs get re-debated? Look how tough we all have it. We might get Juan Soto… but with an opt-out. *cue to Oakland residents driving by a dilapidated Coliseum filled with possums*
|
|
|
Juan Soto
Nov 27, 2024 23:15:24 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by uknome on Nov 27, 2024 23:15:24 GMT -5
At the end of last season, the consensus was that this team had a strong offensive core, with top, young, offensive talent getting ready to add to the roster. Casas is probably on the verge of a monster season. Anthony looks like another monster bat, inexpensive, and just needing some more seasoning and then an opening on the roster. Duran is looking like he can carry a team. Wong and Teel. Devers. Story and Rafaela providing strong defense, and hopefully better than average offense. Mayers and Campbell are looking like future stars.
Trade Abreu and Yoshida, and J. Garcia for a righty bat.
Sign Fried or Burnes, and get T. Scott.
Soto wasn't really viewed as something this team needed at the end of last season. Pitching was this team's shortcoming.
It's been exciting to hear that the Sox seem to actually be serious about going after an elite player like Soto, but he's not what this team really needs.
|
|
|
Post by wcsoxfan on Nov 27, 2024 23:36:53 GMT -5
I’ve posted this before, but there are four conditions when it comes to opt-outs, not two. 1. Player is good and opts out, following which he continues to be good. 2. Player is bad/injured and doesn’t opt out, following which he continues to be bad/injured. 3. Player is good and opts out, following which he becomes bad/injured. 4. Player is bad/injured and doesn’t opt out, following which he becomes good. Conditions one and two are bad for the team. (Condition one is bad strictly in terms of value, but could be seen as a positive in some situations, depending on the team’s window and payroll management, etc. Condition two is universally bad.) Conditions three and four are good for the team. In order to calculate whether an opt-out favors the team or the player, you need to sum the probability*value of each condition and compare that to the overall expected value without any opt-outs. (Actually, it’s not four static conditions, it’s more of a distribution of value outcomes on each side of the opt outs, each with their own probabilities. You could divide it into probability buckets graduated by, say, 0.5 WAR for each year of the contract.) Saying that opt-outs are universally negative value for the team is just not correct. It depends on the probabilities of each condition, which are likely unique to every player and involve a bunch of variables (the player’s expected surplus value and aging curves, appetite for risk, where in the contract the opt-out is located, and so on). I appreciate your take and agree with the above in a theoretical situation (non-baseball) but within baseball there are two issues:1. Player careers are parabolic: Given that most star players sign long-term contracts at/near their peak (players begin declining between ages 29 and 31 on average) so #2 is the most likely outcome while #4 is the least likely in a typical contract. Due to Soto's youth, and depending on the opt-out, #1 or #3 may be more likely - but he's already expected to be compensated for that youth in years and dollars, outside of adding an opt-out (if he were 36, nobody would be talking about 600mil+ contracts). 2. Value: In a vacuum, the opt-out within a contract is always a negative to the team as it's a positive to the player. If we were to flip it and see if a player would take a team option without any additional form of compensation, we all know the answer is no - the team would have to increase the contract in order to add the team option prior to the agreed upon contract's completion. So for a player to get an opt-out, they have to give-up value within the contract. Although a team may luck-out and get off a player before they decline due to an opt-out, the likelihood of the opposite happening is always greater due to player productivity decreasing as a result of age. From a contractual value standpoint:1. Player receives opt-out: negative expected value for team. 2. Player agrees to fewer dollars: positive expected value for team. 3. Player agrees to fewer dollars in exchange for opt-out: questionable expected value for team.
|
|
|
Post by grandsalami on Nov 28, 2024 0:00:54 GMT -5
?
|
|
|
Post by grandsalami on Nov 28, 2024 0:03:19 GMT -5
|
|
|
Juan Soto
Nov 28, 2024 0:20:50 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Nov 28, 2024 0:20:50 GMT -5
I believe this man with all my heart
|
|
cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,892
|
Post by cdj on Nov 28, 2024 0:21:04 GMT -5
he looks very trustworthy, glasses indicate nerd who is very smart
|
|
|
Post by julyanmorley on Nov 28, 2024 0:21:13 GMT -5
I have spent an embarrassing amount of time trying to find any reason to believe in this guy and come up empty. The guy on the top does have a decent following on social media and advertised this interview ahead of time so it is a step above two Twitter anons I guess.
|
|
asm18
Veteran
Posts: 3,072
|
Juan Soto
Nov 28, 2024 0:24:29 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by asm18 on Nov 28, 2024 0:24:29 GMT -5
Certainly not gonna too hyped over one rumor a guy heard, but I would be curious what the buzz is in the DR about Soto in terms of where people (i.e. the main sports journalists & folks connected to him and his family) think he’s going to go. Papi and Pedro seem to think it’ll be Boston - though admittedly they’re a teeny bit biased…
|
|
|
Post by grandsalami on Nov 28, 2024 0:28:26 GMT -5
Iirc that podcast is based in the DR
|
|
|
Post by grandsalami on Nov 28, 2024 0:28:44 GMT -5
he looks very trustworthy, glasses indicate nerd who is very smart
|
|
|
Post by pedroelgrande on Nov 28, 2024 0:31:04 GMT -5
They just looking for clicks man playing the % he is right if Soto signs elsewhere then “it was’t official” or make up some more BS.
|
|
|
Post by grandsalami on Nov 28, 2024 0:40:27 GMT -5
They just looking for clicks man playing the % he is right if Soto signs elsewhere then “it was’t official” or make up some more BS.
|
|
|
Post by pedroelgrande on Nov 28, 2024 0:45:36 GMT -5
Certainly not gonna too hyped over one rumor a guy heard, but I would be curious what the buzz is in the DR about Soto in terms of where people (i.e. the main sports journalists & folks connected to him and his family) think he’s going to go. Papi and Pedro seem to think it’ll be Boston - though admittedly they’re a teeny bit biased… As a regular consumer of Dominican media I can tell you they have zero clue where he is going the information is mostly driven by what they take from US journalists. Soto’s contract has been a water cooler topic for a while ever since the Nats offer was made public debating whether it was too much money to turn down or whatever. Now that David has talked about the possibility he goes to Boston thats the new thing they are focusing on as Boston wasn’t seen as a destination before free agency started. Soto might have some journalists connection but I don’t think they are being fed anything that I haven’t seen previously in US media.
|
|
|
Post by grandsalami on Nov 28, 2024 1:01:38 GMT -5
Certainly not gonna too hyped over one rumor a guy heard, but I would be curious what the buzz is in the DR about Soto in terms of where people (i.e. the main sports journalists & folks connected to him and his family) think he’s going to go. Papi and Pedro seem to think it’ll be Boston - though admittedly they’re a teeny bit biased… As a regular consumer of Dominican media I can tell you they have zero clue where he is going the information is mostly driven by what they take from US journalists. Soto’s contract has been a water cooler topic for a while ever since the Nats offer was made public debating whether it was too much money to turn down or whatever. Now that David has talked about the possibility he goes to Boston thats the new thing they are focusing on as Boston wasn’t seen as a destination before free agency started. Soto might have some journalists connection but I don’t think they are being fed anything that I haven’t seen previously in US media. *puts on tin foil hat*. What if its ortiz that is the one feeding this info to journalists in the Dr?
|
|