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Post by maxwellsdemon on Nov 26, 2024 14:03:51 GMT -5
Is everyone on board (theoretically) with 15/700, or would you balk at that price tag? 15/705 (47 mil AAV) is a number where it is probably a little unreasonable, but not so much so that I can't rationalize it being a good idea. Here, check it out:
- Surely 10/470 would be a great deal for Soto. The concern would really just be the last few years of that contract, the last 5/235. - But with inflation and raises to the CBT that should only be the equivalent of, I think, roughly 5/150 in today's money. (Someone can check my math, which I mostly made up, on that.) - So what if he produces zero value in those years? The Red Sox got a total of 0 WAR between Hanley Ramirez, Dustin Pedroia, and Pablo Sandoval in 2017-2018 for a combined $50+ million per year. Having $30-50 million in dead money on a big-market team is almost par for the course. - Having top-tier stars has both financial and non-financial value, as the Dodgers have found out with Ohtani. Or even as we see in the fact that Soto grew up a Red Sox fan thanks to Papi and Pedro and Manny. The Red Sox could cement their status in the DR, which could be a gift that keeps on giving.
Not a bad guesstimate on that last 5 years, I make it's PV about $150mm at a 6% discount rate, $161mm ish at 5% and $172mm ish at 4% not that bad under the circumstances as you said. Here's an alternative: $705mm for 16 years through Soto's age 41 season. For reference, in Big Papi's last year (age 40 season) he led MLB in HR, SLG% and OPS and led the AL in RBI and IBB finishing with a .401 OBP. We obviously don't know if Soto's bat will age like Papi's, but if the Sox really, really like him and he needs that top $ number to sign, it's a way to get there and reduces the annual hit to a *mere* $44mm.
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Post by julyanmorley on Nov 26, 2024 14:16:00 GMT -5
Rosenthal: nobody knows anything
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Post by greenmonster on Nov 26, 2024 14:29:16 GMT -5
Based on the information publicly available, is there anyone willing to go out on a limb and predict Soto to the Red Sox? Judgement free zone here. I’m still at the point where if they signed him I’d be thrilled but also still in complete disbelief Maybe just maybe Soto wants to be JUDGEment free
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Post by grandsalami on Nov 26, 2024 14:36:25 GMT -5
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Juan Soto
Nov 26, 2024 14:40:52 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by stevedillard on Nov 26, 2024 14:40:52 GMT -5
I wonder with the Boras opt out thing, that a front loaded contract favors that. The Sox, having a cost controlled core for the next 6 years can more-easily facilitate that by giving him the cash in those years. Is that a valid thought process?
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asm18
Veteran
Posts: 3,054
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Juan Soto
Nov 26, 2024 14:42:57 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by asm18 on Nov 26, 2024 14:42:57 GMT -5
We to need to sign Jose Iglesias (aka Candelita) back to takeaway the Mets’ biggest advantage
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,884
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Post by cdj on Nov 26, 2024 14:43:16 GMT -5
I no longer want Juan Soto. I had a Celsius before going to see a hardcore show a couple weeks ago and thought I was a going to die the entire time. It literally makes your organs vibrate and feel terrible and yet I can’t stop drinking it Even invented the tequila-Celsius recently. The Teqelsius. Aka the thinking man’s 4Loko. Might be a bit of an Icarus situation though, flying too close to the sun w that one
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Nov 26, 2024 14:58:34 GMT -5
It literally makes your organs vibrate and feel terrible and yet I can’t stop drinking it Even invented the tequila-Celsius recently. The Teqelsius. Aka the thinking man’s 4Loko. Might be a bit of an Icarus situation though, flying too close to the sun w that one Are we sure we want our 700 million dollar left fielder drinking something that features this description
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Post by curll on Nov 26, 2024 14:59:38 GMT -5
It literally makes your organs vibrate and feel terrible and yet I can’t stop drinking it Even invented the tequila-Celsius recently. The Teqelsius. Aka the thinking man’s 4Loko. Might be a bit of an Icarus situation though, flying too close to the sun w that one Depends on the flavor, I suppose. They had a cactus lime one that's pretty dang good. C4 has some very good flavors and some 300MG caf stuff. I'm mostly agnostic since they're all probably just cancer in a can. And, it does legit seem to be a tossup between the Mets and Red Sox for Soto, and I'd be very happy with either result. I have a gut feeling Soto is going to sign with the Sox, though that might be all the energy drinks and beer.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,884
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Post by cdj on Nov 26, 2024 15:27:20 GMT -5
It literally makes your organs vibrate and feel terrible and yet I can’t stop drinking it Even invented the tequila-Celsius recently. The Teqelsius. Aka the thinking man’s 4Loko. Might be a bit of an Icarus situation though, flying too close to the sun w that one Are we sure we want our 700 million dollar left fielder drinking something that features this description He’ll hit 55 homers a year on it until the fda bans it
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Post by wcsoxfan on Nov 26, 2024 15:50:40 GMT -5
I wonder with the Boras opt out thing, that a front loaded contract favors that. The Sox, having a cost controlled core for the next 6 years can more-easily facilitate that by giving him the cash in those years. Is that a valid thought process? For CBT, It's the AAV the whole way if he doesn't opt-out and if he does opt-out there would be an accounting correction for the diifference. So if the team gives Soto 50mil a year for 4 years, but the AAV is 45mil (due to the lower values later in the contract), and he opts-out after 4 years, there would be a sum of 20mil added to the Red Sox CBT for the pursuing years which are nullified; if 10 years were nullified then 2mil per year would be added to CBT for 10 seasons. From CBA:
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Nov 26, 2024 15:57:09 GMT -5
Are we sure we want our 700 million dollar left fielder drinking something that features this description He’ll hit 55 homers a year on it until the fda bans it Just mix some Celsius with some TRT and our boy will be looking like TRT Vitor in no time.
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badfishnbc
Veteran
Doing you all a favor and leaving through the gate in right field since 2012.
Posts: 519
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Post by badfishnbc on Nov 26, 2024 16:54:50 GMT -5
Are we sure we want our 700 million dollar left fielder drinking something that features this description He’ll hit 55 homers a year on it until the fda bans it It’s already barred by the NCAA. My student-athlete was apoplectic when she found that out. I suppose it can’t be worse than the greenies the old timers used to take.
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mobaz
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Posts: 3,048
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Post by mobaz on Nov 26, 2024 17:16:01 GMT -5
He’ll hit 55 homers a year on it until the fda bans it It’s already barred by the NCAA. My student-athlete was apoplectic when she found that out. I suppose it can’t be worse than the greenies the old timers used to take. "Celsius: It's better than Meth!" might be a decent slogan, and open up new markets.
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Post by julyanmorley on Nov 26, 2024 17:33:54 GMT -5
Heyman says the Mets/Soto meeting was at Cohen's house.
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Post by julyanmorley on Nov 26, 2024 17:37:31 GMT -5
Marino Pepen reported that the Red Sox increased their offer in money and years. Then he later tweeted to apologize for not crediting Hector Gomez for reporting it first, while insisting that his source was different than Hector's. They are fully committed to the bit.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Nov 26, 2024 17:53:58 GMT -5
Having been a long tenured member on this site, I find it fascinating, the dearth of posts about the back end of the contract. I can remember many posts on that in previous FA deals.
Maybe that is because of the player (age or talent) or maybe it is because people are tired of not being in the playoffs and / or playing in top Tier FA market sandbox.
Just commentary on my part, not slinging arrows.
It is a lot of money for 1 guy at 15/700. If you go that high, not sure it really matters if you go to 750, for that matter. What, an extra 3.5 million a year in AAV ? Doesn't seem that consequential in the overall scheme of things. At that point you have already bit the bullet.
Gonna be interesting. I don't really consider him that important a player relative to his peers, but would be very exciting.
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asm18
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Posts: 3,054
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Post by asm18 on Nov 26, 2024 17:57:06 GMT -5
Heyman says the Mets/Soto meeting was at Cohen's house. Is the house part of the offer
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Post by curll on Nov 26, 2024 17:58:46 GMT -5
Having been a long tenured member on this site, I find it fascinating, the dearth of posts about the back end of the contract. I can remember many posts on that in previous FA deals. Maybe that is because of the player (age or talent) or maybe it is because people are tired of not being in the playoffs and / or playing in top Tier FA market sandbox. Just commentary on my part, not slinging arrows. It is a lot of money for 1 guy at 15/700. If you go that high, not sure it really matters if you go to 750, for that matter. What, an extra 3.5 million a year in AAV ? Doesn't seem that consequential in the overall scheme of things. At that point you have already bit the bullet. Gonna be interesting. I don't really consider him that important a player relative to his peers, but would be very exciting. You're 100% correct, but I think that is part of the math. If Cohen or the Yankees are willing to go X, then then value prop doesn't actually matter. It'd cost the Yankees $1.2 Billion+ to sign Soto. Mets are not too far under. If FSG has to pay $1B or less, then it is a good value prop considering inflation, the upcoming recession, World War 3, etc, etc, etc. vs live sports as a distraction + future merch sales/rights/King of DR influence/colonization of Haiti making it part of the USA and King Soto has good relations.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,884
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Juan Soto
Nov 26, 2024 17:59:32 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by cdj on Nov 26, 2024 17:59:32 GMT -5
He’ll hit 55 homers a year on it until the fda bans it It’s already barred by the NCAA. My student-athlete was apoplectic when she found that out. I suppose it can’t be worse than the greenies the old timers used to take. Not surprised, I drink it before jiujitsu and I feel like a weapon That’s wild the NCAA went full ban on it though, I think that’s kind of hilarious actually. Confirms my thoughts on it being a little somethin extra Anyway if you want to talk about performance supplements this is a great one for our new $700 million left fielder (again until it’s banned by fda and he gets hauled before congress)
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nomar
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Posts: 11,618
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Post by nomar on Nov 26, 2024 18:01:09 GMT -5
He’ll hit 55 homers a year on it until the fda bans it It’s already barred by the NCAA. My student-athlete was apoplectic when she found that out. I suppose it can’t be worse than the greenies the old timers used to take. Oh so it’s like the new orange stealth
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Post by grandsalami on Nov 26, 2024 19:43:51 GMT -5
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Juan Soto
Nov 26, 2024 20:16:14 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by notstarboard on Nov 26, 2024 20:16:14 GMT -5
Having been a long tenured member on this site, I find it fascinating, the dearth of posts about the back end of the contract. I can remember many posts on that in previous FA deals. Maybe that is because of the player (age or talent) or maybe it is because people are tired of not being in the playoffs and / or playing in top Tier FA market sandbox. Just commentary on my part, not slinging arrows. It is a lot of money for 1 guy at 15/700. If you go that high, not sure it really matters if you go to 750, for that matter. What, an extra 3.5 million a year in AAV ? Doesn't seem that consequential in the overall scheme of things. At that point you have already bit the bullet. Gonna be interesting. I don't really consider him that important a player relative to his peers, but would be very exciting. I mostly agree with this, but I want to caution about thinking too much in terms of percentages. $50 million doesn't seem like that much when compared to $700 million, but it's a decent chunk ot change on its own! That's just a hair under what we still owe Yoshida, for example, and there has been much lamenting about him still being owed that much. In practice, Yoshida will likely defray a good chunk of that $50 million with on-field performance, so the actual amount of wasted money is way less than that. Meanwhile the difference between $750 million for Soto and $700 million for Soto is the full $50 million (minus currency devaluation from inflation).
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Post by julyanmorley on Nov 26, 2024 20:24:04 GMT -5
I don't think there's any new info in that article but it's on the front page of the Post so now all the pundits with no info will probably talk about how the Red Sox might actually get him
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Post by kwodes on Nov 26, 2024 20:51:47 GMT -5
seeing that this is from Heyman, does that mean he is close to signing with the Mets or Yankees? Is this just Boras trying to squeeze every last dollar out of the NY teams?
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