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Post by grandsalami on Nov 26, 2024 11:51:35 GMT -5
That just sounds like someone tried to explain to Kuty how a negotiation works in general.  |
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Post by threeifbaerga on Nov 26, 2024 11:54:28 GMT -5
That just sounds like someone tried to explain to Kuty how a negotiation works in general. He definitely has a word minimum to hit there. |
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Post by julyanmorley on Nov 26, 2024 11:55:29 GMT -5
I no longer want Juan Soto.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,884 
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Post by cdj on Nov 26, 2024 11:56:48 GMT -5
Ngl I’ve become addicted to Celsius recently it makes me want him more
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Post by bossox04 on Nov 26, 2024 12:00:20 GMT -5
Maybe I'm a downer but I think people are way to hopeful with soto.
I think Cohen is going to offer 700M if he has to and I think if the money is close, he prefers ny.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,618
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Post by nomar on Nov 26, 2024 12:01:11 GMT -5
Is everyone on board (theoretically) with 15/700, or would you balk at that price tag?
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Post by julyanmorley on Nov 26, 2024 12:01:52 GMT -5
Is everyone on board (theoretically) with 15/700, or would you balk at that price tag? Prob not the best way to maximize wins and titles but it'd be fun to have Juan Soto |
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badfishnbc
Veteran
Doing you all a favor and leaving through the gate in right field since 2012.
Posts: 519
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Post by badfishnbc on Nov 26, 2024 12:03:59 GMT -5
C E L S I U S
Y A N K E E S
IT WAS ALWAYS RIGHT IN FRONT OF US.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,618
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Post by nomar on Nov 26, 2024 12:12:40 GMT -5
My worry would be that at 15/700 if sh** hits the fan, Henry will self impose another dark age, whereas the Yankees or Mets would spend through it.
But obviously I’d love to see Soto in Boston and I don’t know who will even own the Sox a decade from now.
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Post by bossox04 on Nov 26, 2024 12:13:45 GMT -5
Is everyone on board (theoretically) with 15/700, or would you balk at that price tag? I think they could make better use of the resources but at the same time I wouldn't be angry either. Would also be dependent how much they plan on actually spending In total. If they plan on getting the payroll to the 270 range? Sure. |
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asm18
Veteran
Posts: 3,054
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Post by asm18 on Nov 26, 2024 12:15:08 GMT -5
Is everyone on board (theoretically) with 15/700, or would you balk at that price tag? ZIPs suggests like 13/620? We can complain about paying those two extra years to get it done on the forum in a decade and a half if the internet still exists |
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 26, 2024 12:17:11 GMT -5
If the Sox got Soto and then got into a huge financial mess down the road, the Dodgers are always around to provide a bail-out.
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Post by grandsalami on Nov 26, 2024 12:20:04 GMT -5
I no longer want Juan Soto. *tin foil hat* Two of those microphones are red and blue. |
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Juan Soto
Nov 26, 2024 12:40:55 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by dirtywaterinla on Nov 26, 2024 12:40:55 GMT -5
I no longer want Juan Soto. I had a Celsius before going to see a hardcore show a couple weeks ago and thought I was a going to die the entire time. |
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Post by orcoaster on Nov 26, 2024 13:13:04 GMT -5
You hire Scott Boras because you want the most money you can get. We'll see if Juan Soto wants the most money he can get, or the most money he can get to play for the Red Sox.
I'm dreaming on the latter.
IIRC, Jason Varitek did this to get his 4/40 contract with the Sox.
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Post by incandenza on Nov 26, 2024 13:16:28 GMT -5
Is everyone on board (theoretically) with 15/700, or would you balk at that price tag? 15/705 (47 mil AAV) is a number where it is probably a little unreasonable, but not so much so that I can't rationalize it being a good idea. Here, check it out:
- Surely 10/470 would be a great deal for Soto. The concern would really just be the last few years of that contract, the last 5/235. - But with inflation and raises to the CBT that should only be the equivalent of, I think, roughly 5/150 in today's money. (Someone can check my math, which I mostly made up, on that.) - So what if he produces zero value in those years? The Red Sox got a total of 0 WAR between Hanley Ramirez, Dustin Pedroia, and Pablo Sandoval in 2017-2018 for a combined $50+ million per year. Having $30-50 million in dead money on a big-market team is almost par for the course. - Having top-tier stars has both financial and non-financial value, as the Dodgers have found out with Ohtani. Or even as we see in the fact that Soto grew up a Red Sox fan thanks to Papi and Pedro and Manny. The Red Sox could cement their status in the DR, which could be a gift that keeps on giving.
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Juan Soto
Nov 26, 2024 13:18:54 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by dirtywaterinla on Nov 26, 2024 13:18:54 GMT -5
Is everyone on board (theoretically) with 15/700, or would you balk at that price tag? 15/705 (47 mil AAV) is a number where it is probably a little unreasonable, but not so much so that I can't rationalize it being a good idea. Here, check it out:
- Surely 10/470 would be a great deal for Soto. The concern would really just be the last few years of that contract, the last 5/235. - But with inflation and raises to the CBT that should only be the equivalent of, I think, roughly 5/150 in today's money. (Someone can check my math, which I mostly made up, on that.) - So what if he produces zero value in those years? The Red Sox got a total of 0 WAR between Hanley Ramirez, Dustin Pedroia, and Pablo Sandoval in 2017-2018 for a combined $50+ million per year. Having $30-50 million in dead money on a big-market team is almost par for the course. - Having top-tier stars has both financial and non-financial value, as the Dodgers have found out with Ohtani. Or even as we see in the fact that Soto grew up a Red Sox fan thanks to Papi and Pedro and Manny. The Red Sox could cement their status in the DR, which could be a gift that keeps on giving.
Yeah, I’d also stop bidding @ $705 mil. If Cohen wants to give Soto $755 million+, best of luck with that. |
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asm18
Veteran
Posts: 3,054
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Juan Soto
Nov 26, 2024 13:22:26 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by asm18 on Nov 26, 2024 13:22:26 GMT -5
Based on the information publicly available, is there anyone willing to go out on a limb and predict Soto to the Red Sox? Judgement free zone here. I’m still at the point where if they signed him I’d be thrilled but also still in complete disbelief
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Post by julyanmorley on Nov 26, 2024 13:24:44 GMT -5
Based on the information publicly available, is there anyone willing to go out on a limb and predict Soto to the Red Sox? Judgement free zone here. I’m still at the point where if they signed him I’d be thrilled but also still in complete disbelief I think the Red Sox are probably the only team willing to reach the ZiPS line of 13/620 is my best guess |
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Post by bloomstaxonomy on Nov 26, 2024 13:28:07 GMT -5
Based on the information publicly available, is there anyone willing to go out on a limb and predict Soto to the Red Sox? Judgement free zone here. I’m still at the point where if they signed him I’d be thrilled but also still in complete disbelief Day to day, I find that life is easier by exhibiting an attitude of naive optimism toward things you can't control. Disappointments sting more intensely but pessimism is more fatiguing and damaging to the psyche, in my experiences. Cynicism is easy and common. With that said, I predict Soto will sign with the Red Sox. |
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Post by incandenza on Nov 26, 2024 13:30:14 GMT -5
Based on the information publicly available, is there anyone willing to go out on a limb and predict Soto to the Red Sox? Judgement free zone here. I’m still at the point where if they signed him I’d be thrilled but also still in complete disbelief I think the Red Sox are probably the only team willing to reach the ZiPS line of 13/620 is my best guess Really? That would surprise me. Why do you think that?
I know there's the luxury tax hell thing, but I only see that as disqualifying for the Yankees and possibly Dodgers. The Mets' long-range outlook does not seem too bad to me.
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Post by julyanmorley on Nov 26, 2024 13:37:35 GMT -5
I think the Red Sox are probably the only team willing to reach the ZiPS line of 13/620 is my best guess Really? That would surprise me. Why do you think that?
I know there's the luxury tax hell thing, but I only see that as disqualifying for the Yankees and possibly Dodgers. The Mets' long-range outlook does not seem too bad to me.
Mets are for sure paying the max short term tax on the Soto deal which is already a lot of money. Mets are not hyping their fans up at all.
15/700 is what Boras seems to be asking for, and he always asks high and doesn't get it.
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Post by notstarboard on Nov 26, 2024 13:38:56 GMT -5
Is everyone on board (theoretically) with 15/700, or would you balk at that price tag? 15/705 (47 mil AAV) is a number where it is probably a little unreasonable, but not so much so that I can't rationalize it being a good idea. Here, check it out:
- Surely 10/470 would be a great deal for Soto. The concern would really just be the last few years of that contract, the last 5/235. - But with inflation and raises to the CBT that should only be the equivalent of, I think, roughly 5/150 in today's money. (Someone can check my math, which I mostly made up, on that.) - So what if he produces zero value in those years? The Red Sox got a total of 0 WAR between Hanley Ramirez, Dustin Pedroia, and Pablo Sandoval in 2017-2018 for a combined $50+ million per year. Having $30-50 million in dead money on a big-market team is almost par for the course. - Having top-tier stars has both financial and non-financial value, as the Dodgers have found out with Ohtani. Or even as we see in the fact that Soto grew up a Red Sox fan thanks to Papi and Pedro and Manny. The Red Sox could cement their status in the DR, which could be a gift that keeps on giving.
5/150 nowadays for a player providing no value is pretty horrendous to be honest. The Red Sox were able to make it work in 2017-2018 on the backs of one of their best young cores ever and while running the highest payroll in the majors, but the inefficient payroll contributed heavily to losing Mookie Betts and the multi-year rebuild we're finally coming out of.
Having contracts like this on the books is relatively normal, but that doesn't mean we should downplay the drawbacks. It's par for the course in America to be living paycheck to paycheck or up to your eyeballs in debt while driving around a too-expensive car you don't own and living in a too-big house you also don't own. And yet, no financial advisor / life coach type would ever advise living like that because the drawbacks are significant.
With that said, it is possible for a player to provide enough surplus value at the start of the contract for multiple albatross years at the end to be totally worth it overall. I just think a deal should be set up such that there's a non-negligible chance of this happening. Otherwise it's all downside.
I agree as well that there is something to be said for paying a premium to consolidate WAR in a single roster spot, and also for the marketing benefits, both to fans and to future free agents. But let's just be real that not getting to sign the next decade's ace SP because the corpse of Juan Soto is bloating the payroll will not be fun.
So, count me firmly in julyanmorley 's camp of "15/700 would probably be an overpay, but it would also be sweet to have Soto." |
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Nov 26, 2024 13:51:17 GMT -5
I am in the camp of “Juan Soto is good enough and young enough that I won’t quibble if the AAV is 5-7% higher than I’d have hoped for”.
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Post by incandenza on Nov 26, 2024 13:53:41 GMT -5
15/705 (47 mil AAV) is a number where it is probably a little unreasonable, but not so much so that I can't rationalize it being a good idea. Here, check it out:
- Surely 10/470 would be a great deal for Soto. The concern would really just be the last few years of that contract, the last 5/235. - But with inflation and raises to the CBT that should only be the equivalent of, I think, roughly 5/150 in today's money. (Someone can check my math, which I mostly made up, on that.) - So what if he produces zero value in those years? The Red Sox got a total of 0 WAR between Hanley Ramirez, Dustin Pedroia, and Pablo Sandoval in 2017-2018 for a combined $50+ million per year. Having $30-50 million in dead money on a big-market team is almost par for the course. - Having top-tier stars has both financial and non-financial value, as the Dodgers have found out with Ohtani. Or even as we see in the fact that Soto grew up a Red Sox fan thanks to Papi and Pedro and Manny. The Red Sox could cement their status in the DR, which could be a gift that keeps on giving.
5/150 nowadays for a player providing no value is pretty horrendous to be honest. The Red Sox were able to make it work in 2017-2018 on the backs of one of their best young cores ever and while running the highest payroll in the majors, but the inefficient payroll contributed heavily to losing Mookie Betts and the multi-year rebuild we're finally coming out of.
Having contracts like this on the books is relatively normal, but that doesn't mean we should downplay the drawbacks. It's par for the course in America to be living paycheck to paycheck or up to your eyeballs in debt while driving around a too-expensive car you don't own and living in a too-big house you also don't own. And yet, no financial advisor / life coach type would ever advise living like that because the drawbacks are significant.
With that said, it is possible for a player to provide enough surplus value at the start of the contract for multiple albatross years at the end to be totally worth it overall. I just think a deal should be set up such that there's a non-negligible chance of this happening. Otherwise it's all downside.
I agree as well that there is something to be said for paying a premium to consolidate WAR in a single roster spot, and also for the marketing benefits, both to fans and to future free agents. But let's just be real that not getting to sign the next decade's ace SP because the corpse of Juan Soto is bloating the payroll will not be fun.
So, count me firmly in julyanmorley 's camp of "15/700 would probably be an overpay, but it would also be sweet to have Soto." Well also, I was positing this as a reasonable worst-case scenario: zero value from Soto for ages 36-40. As good a hitter as he is, he'll probably be worth more than nothing. Some players that randomly occur to me as plausible comparisons with age 36-40 WAR totals:
Joey Votto 3.2 Miguel Cabrera -2.4 David Ortiz 16.2 Frank Thomas 6.9 Albert Pujols -1.7 Jim Thome 9.8 Manny Ramirez 9.2 Gary Sheffield 5.7
A median projection might be that he's decent to good at ages 36-37 and replacement level or worse at ages 39-40. For that projection we're only talking about 2-3 years of deadweight.
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