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Post by beasleyrockah on Nov 13, 2013 12:24:43 GMT -5
I could care less about Christina's vote (or the award itself), but her supporting argument is bogus. Posters are in this "debate" about preseason expectations and whether the team was a 70 win projection, or 81, or 90 but that's all missing the point...is anyone arguing the Yankees or Rays outperformed their preseason expectations MORE than the Red Sox did? No? Ok then, what are we talking about here? If you want to reset for injuries and in-season changes fine, but she is speaking about preseason expectations. Even the most optimistic projections called for the Red Sox, Yankees and Rays to all be in a close race, yet the only team who separated from the pack was the Red Sox. There are plenty of reasonable arguments to claim Maddon, Tito and Girardi did a great job this year but she chose payroll and preseason expectations and those narratives are weak.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Nov 12, 2013 22:41:35 GMT -5
Yeah, the funny thing is Christina picked the Rays to win the division, and the Blue Jays to win a Wild Card. Then she uses payroll and preseason expectations as the rationale, as she picks the Yankees manager (quite the payroll and expectations) and the Rays manager (her preseason pick). Sound logic.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Nov 12, 2013 14:25:50 GMT -5
What point? That a BIG MARKET TEAM like the BOSTON RED SOX should SIGN ALL THE PLAYERS? Should have said opinion, not point. Anyway, NO the Twins don't sign anyone because they are afraid of spending any money. Most people have a TON of great ideas. Many do not (again all of this is a matter of opinion). However, I find it frustrating when people don't want to sign Napoli for 3 years ect. He has proven he can play in Boston, a place some have proven that the cannot. Spending on Napoli seems to be safer then spending money on player X. Mike Napoli hasn't proven he'll be good the next three seasons. I'd say it's more likely than not that he'll be a burden on the roster by year three. He's clearly going to fall off at some point, if you believe in him fine, but acknowledge reality.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Nov 11, 2013 12:11:37 GMT -5
If the Red Sox end up passing on Mike Napoli for 3 years and Abreu for 6 years, all the better. I'm confident they'll have better options in years 2-6 even if year 1 looks questionable. And by better options I mean not saddled with negative value contracts.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Nov 10, 2013 19:24:05 GMT -5
To be fair, the reason everyone disagreed with you was because you thought Abreu was less risky than Lebron James. No, I said something to the effect that IF we had enough data for Nike to project a $90 mil shoe deal for Lebron James when he hadn't even set foot on an NBA court yet, we had enough data to evaluate Abreu considering his 10 years of PT in Cuba's top league, plus a lot of international competitions. At no point did I say Abreu is less risky than Lebron James. Abreu is commanding a lot less salary than James right? I even projected Abreu's contract accurately, when everyone else was underestimating it. The point was that he wasn't the unknown he was made out to be. He wasn't a sure thing but he is a solid bet. He's highly likely to put up numbers similar or better to what Cespedes has put up in his time in mlb. Probably better for both average and OBP with similar power. He is younger than Napoli and a better bet overall in my book going forward. He was worth what they signed him for. Now we have little leverage. You better hope he's better than Cespedes because .265/.324/.472 isn't special at 1B when you have no real defensive value and you can't run.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Nov 9, 2013 19:00:24 GMT -5
Not that I think this will happen, but trading for Mauer makes a lot of sense. The Sox can eat the contract and only have to give up some random pieces like Dempster and Wright. The Twins had the chance to dump the contract in the past and chose not to. Things can change but it's unlikely they want to move him, and it's really unlikely they'd take on money or dump him for spare parts.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Nov 8, 2013 11:48:14 GMT -5
I have this fear after hearing the Sox have offered Drew a multi year contract. I still remember them trading Bagwell for Anderson. I could see Bogaerts starting in Pawtucket as the Sox worked on a deal to trade Middlebrooks. Though I am not certain of Middlebrooks ceiling I just don't know why they want to bring Drew back so much. This puts Bogaerts in limbo. I have followed the Sox since the 50s they have never been an organization that promotes many rookies. I am always hearing about the failure rate of them. I love the Sox prospects site and keep hoping the view at the top is changing, but then I hear things like the Drew offer and it just makes me think of the bad old days. They have a few blips in their times and I wonder why they haven't figured out the kids do great when given the opportunity. Ah Red Sox fans. They just won their third World Series in ten years, be happy. This front office has nothing to do with the 50s-90s Red Sox. I feel bad for older Sox fans, you guys are clearly scarred for life. Enjoy the moment, the Red Sox are doing pretty good right now.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Nov 8, 2013 11:01:58 GMT -5
I'm just worried if Drew is back whether Farrell will play Xander everyday. Why wouldn't he? I expect him to start out hitting 7th, end up hitting 5th and be your everyday shortstop. I have no idea why that clown Olney thinks Xander is a 3rd baseman all of a sudden. You would think adjusting to a new position that quickly would actually speak positively to his ability to play short? (Plus, I though he showed more than enough range and arm strength to be a shortstop.) The way Olney phrased it showed he was clearly going off the old scouting reports of Bogaerts from 2-3 years back. I don't understand how someone who is constantly around the game can be so out of the loop since Bogaerts is a huge name, but it isn't surprising, I expect no content quality from the main talking heads at ESPN.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Nov 6, 2013 12:15:22 GMT -5
There are two problems with arguing Napoli and/or Ortiz are more likely to get injured than JBJ is to struggle mightily.
1) This scenario relies on Victorino also staying healthy, and I'd argue he's just as likely to be injured at some point. 2) Kalish being healthy and somewhat productive is part of this scenario. Anytime Kalish is mentioned as a key part of Plan B, you aren't being realistic.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Nov 6, 2013 11:22:05 GMT -5
John Lackey's value may never be higher. Coming off a strong comeback season and an outstanding post season, and, with an affordable two year package, the return on him could be high and enable the Sox to fill another hole. With the likes of Workman and Webster in the wings and Doubront and Dempster filling out the #4-5 spots in the rotation, the team would be dealing from a position of strength. Dempster would not return the same value. Look at this as a bonus. At the start of the season most of us were just hoping Lackey would show enough to enhance his value at the trade deadline. Now he is an asset Cherington needs to maximize. Dempster wouldn't return the same value because he's not nearly as good. The Red Sox can afford to keep both, and they are trying to win games (again) so I don't see why'd they'd deal one of their best pitchers only to replace him with one of their worst. This isn't a rebuilding small market team. If someone wants to clearly overpay for Lackey fine, but short of that he shouldn't be going anywhere.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Nov 5, 2013 21:44:01 GMT -5
Yeah it's not just about getting a JBJ "fallback" option, it's about building proper depth. It's a poor strategy to bank on JBJ and Victorino being healthy from wire to wire, and naming guys like Nava (in RF while simultaneously bumping Gomes and co. into bigger roles), Hassan, Castellanos, Kalish (lol), etc. as Plan B scares me. There's no reason to enter a season with such poor roster construction in the outfield. If the Red Sox bring back Nava and Gomes to platoon in LF and re-sign Napoli (or acquire a clear starting 1B) Carp probably shouldn't be on this roster, ideally he'd be flipped for fair value. The Red Sox enjoyed a fairly healthy season this past year, but I'm not forgetting about 2010-2012.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Nov 5, 2013 14:22:48 GMT -5
I know Martin and Salty aren't in the exact same situation, but it's the best comparable we have from last year's FA group. Martin signed for 2/17, and he was vocal about how that was the only legitimate offer he received. I know a bunch of teams could use upgrades at catcher but history says non-elite catchers just don't get paid.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Nov 5, 2013 13:28:12 GMT -5
2008 Ellsbury hit .280/.336/.394, and 2007 Crisp hit .268/.330/.382. I think Crisp's 2007 line is reasonable for JBJ next season, with the obvious caveat it's neither his floor or ceiling. I'm ready for the JBJ era to begin, but I'm not expecting him to replace Ellsbury's production next season. I'd be disappointed if the Red Sox let Ellsbury and Drew (and possibly Salty & Napoli) walk only to replace them with internal candidates. I'm confident that won't occur though, and the roster will be upgraded in other spots to help offset their losses.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Nov 4, 2013 22:34:29 GMT -5
How do you get fired after two seasons in the middle of a long term rebuild? I've mostly ignored the Cubs but Sveum must have been really overmatched to get axed that fast given the situation of the franchise.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Nov 3, 2013 22:46:18 GMT -5
Corey Hart would be an obvious candidate if Napoli walks. I don't see why they'd enter a season with Carp/Nava/Hassan/Gomes for 1B & LF with all that payroll flexibility. Hart could replace most of Napoli's production and it would be a short term low risk deal. Entering a season relying on Ross, Carp, JBJ, etc. in starting roles (with weak/unproven options behind them) is completely unnecessary for this franchise, even in a weak FA market they can still make trades. I can't picture all four FA's walking and replacing them all internally.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Nov 3, 2013 21:39:49 GMT -5
Kendrys Morales is clearly the worst player on that list.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Nov 3, 2013 12:31:26 GMT -5
I'd like Brandon Belt but why would they trade him? Is Aubrey Huff's corpse not retired yet? Weren't they seriously pursing Abreu? I don't know why they seem to underrate Belt so much, but it's been there for a while. He'd be my target as far as realistic options go assuming Napoli walks.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Nov 3, 2013 12:28:08 GMT -5
Probably because am bigger at picking out big flaws in a players game JMEI and some of the advanced metrics just don't allow that. Massive amount of K's, advanced metrics don't allow that, which don't put balls into play and take into account the chance of fielders possibly booting balls, advancing runners etc.. Defensive ability, which I have had doubts on of his since he arrived and finally got him removed from games this post season. Throws to bases that went wild, bounced to bases and otherwise were not close to the player covering the bag giving them a good chance to tag said base runner out and framing of pitches without jerking his glove. Defensive things which can be caught with the eyes and some of the metrics seemingly do not use and which Ross passes with flying colors. Not going to go into a total knock down of the advanced use of the metrics, as have learned to use some side by side of the way learned to judge players years ago and only way that ALL players were originally judged, but using advanced metrics alone to judge a player and how good that they are is flawed itself. He strikes out a lot, but that's factored in. His total offensive production is clearly not below average for a catcher, especially this year. You might want to look around the league the past few seasons and check out the average catcher. wRC+ is a much better indicator than trying to factor in things like productive outs.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Nov 3, 2013 11:43:41 GMT -5
If I were the Yanks GM, I'd sign Kuroda, Tanaka and one or 2 other good starters ideally and do something for the OF to replace Granderson. It's not urgent this year but it will be next year. They have to do something of course at so many other positions though that it is difficult to determine what they end up with. McCann would maybe make a lot of sense with them also. If possible, we should make their problems more difficult to deal with. The Redsox should make a huge run at Kuroda to either acquire another top starter so we can trade a secondary guy like Peavy, Dempster...etc. or make it even more difficult for the Yanks to retool. I'd offer Kuroda up to $20 mil for a single year season if necessary. The guy has proven worth his money every year for the past 5 or so. And he's done it in the AL east for several years now. Go after the guy even if we have to trade Doubront in order to create a slot for him. Doubront represents tremendous trade value right now. We could get a lot for him. The Sox have some money to spend. Why not upgrade the rotation a lot while hurting the Yanks BADLY and create a situation where we have a trade piece or 2 which can be very useful in fixing other areas of need. I love short term, high quality deals of 1-2 years. And focusing on top priorities like top starting pitching. I know Kuroda is not considered worth $20 mil at his age but that overpay creates a lot of value for this team next year. And we should be focused primarily on winning now at this point. And the Yanks probably match it anyway so why not make a solid run at him? Look at his numbers: 2010: 196 IP, 3.39 ERA 2011: 202 IP, 3.07 ERA 2012: 201 IP, 3.32 ERA 2013: 201 IP, 3.31 ERA The guy would have been our ace this year. Our starter in the PO. He's worth a Roger Clemens type overpay late in his career. He will be 39 next year. But he's worth it. amfox1 edit: moved from an inapposite thread.Ok so Tanaka, Kuroda, possibly two more good starting pitchers, probably Ellsbury, Cano and McCann huh? That's all? Only looking at $600m+ spent, not too shabby.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Nov 3, 2013 0:44:59 GMT -5
I would offer QOs to all four. I don't see the free agent catching market as strong (and McCann is likely to go to TEX) and therefore there should be a lot of interest in Saltalamacchia as the next best available C. While it's an overpay, I don't think Salty is going to give up the chance to get a multiyear deal by accepting the QO. The other three are no-brainers at this point. This. Salty had a 117 wRC last year at catcher, and has been durable. Yes he was terrible in the playoffs, but you shouldn't make roster decisions on that tiny sample size. The Red Sox made stupid decisions after 2007, such as foolishly resign Lowell off a tiny sample size. I'd hate for them to make more decisions off small samples. Mike Lowell probably had the best season of his career in 2007, it wasn't like he just got hot in the postseason.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Oct 30, 2013 23:59:42 GMT -5
World Series Championship bridge year
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Post by beasleyrockah on Oct 29, 2013 15:03:30 GMT -5
Lynn and Fisk are both at the top of my page, the first two actually.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Oct 27, 2013 22:52:28 GMT -5
AND THAT'S WHY YOU HOLD THE RUNNER ON MCCARVER SUCK IT
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Post by beasleyrockah on Oct 26, 2013 23:16:09 GMT -5
This just in: WMB still sucks at baseball.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Oct 24, 2013 22:27:31 GMT -5
At least this ends the whole "undefeated with Gomes" narrative.
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