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Post by beasleyrockah on Oct 24, 2013 21:54:40 GMT -5
This is awkward. I try to refrain from unnecessary hyperbolic comments about the team's future since, you know, it isn't predictable. What's the worse that happens? You're either right or you're either wrong. There's no money riding on it. It's an anonymous board. Nobody is going to take you to the woodshed. Of course baseball is mostly unpredictable. It's averages operating on a random scale of occurrence. The way I see it, if I'm wrong, I'm cool with it. Who cares? It's not like I get paid for a prediction if I'm actually right. There are bigger issues in life. Because you've spent the entire season making absolute predictions about how "this can't happen" when obviously there's a possibility "that" could happen. Suggesting the Red Sox had no chance to hit Wacha is and was crazy, of course they had a chance. All the hyperbole is unnecessary and that's all I'm talking about, reasonable pessimism is fine. I'm not derailing a WS thread, if you want to bring it to the Throwdown forum or whatever be my guest.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Oct 24, 2013 21:42:53 GMT -5
Keep making negative predictions, please, the season might depend on it. Have any positive/smug predictions to make about this game? If it brings the Sox luck we can use it. This is awkward. I try to refrain from unnecessary hyperbolic comments about the team's future since, you know, it isn't predictable.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Oct 24, 2013 21:00:38 GMT -5
The only thing there is to root for right now is to get Wacha's pitch count up over 100 by the end of the 6th inning, try to keep the game close, and hope they can handle the Cards' pen. They're not going to touch Wacha. Napoli's DP grounder killed their best and perhaps only chance. Why is Gomes in the game over Nava again? Keep making negative predictions, please, the season might depend on it.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Oct 22, 2013 19:34:33 GMT -5
These are the two best teams in each league, both are fairly healthy, and both are capable of winning the World Series. Since the Red Sox have homefield advantage they are the slight favorites here. If it was switched I'd give the slight edge to the Cardinals. If we're regressing the Red Sox offense based on the DH and Fenway, lets regress the Cardinals pitching for avoiding the DH/Fenway/AL East. Can't have it both ways.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Oct 22, 2013 15:14:46 GMT -5
I don't know; I think Detroit could get something for Fielder + Scherzer. The team getting the players may insist on a contract extension being worked out with Mad Max, but that's entirely possible. I'm just not so sure why you'd do that if you were Detroit, unless you knew you weren't resigning Scherzer. If anything, resign Scherzer and use Anibal to dump Fielders contract if you want to get out from under it so bad. After all, isn't 4 years of Sanchez more valuable then 1 of Scherzer? There have been rumors about Detroit considering dealing Scherzer. It makes sense if they can get a good return, sell at the highest point and avoid the risk of paying a pitcher a ton of money. The Tigers are well on their way to becoming the new Phillies and really ruining their long term future, only they don't even have a WS to show for it. Fielder's contract is one of the worst in the game and he isn't even a good fit for their roster right now. Cabrera and Vmart should be filling the 1B/DH roles. If they were able to flip one season of Scherzer into real financial flexibility to add necessary depth to their roster they'd probably be a much better team, as constituted they are very flawed and can't overcome injuries to their top heavy roster. I'm sure many teams would be interested in Anibal coming off a great year, but it's a real stretch to think any team would take on him and Fielder even if it was just a cash dump. Stranger things have happened I guess, but it certainly wouldn't be easy.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Oct 22, 2013 11:09:54 GMT -5
It's not about "throwing out" the postseason stats, it's just that sample can't move the needle significantly enough to have a real impact. The Red Sox already have evaluations of these players based on their total body of work...not just this season, but their entire careers. Projections for future performance aren't going to change much if at all based on one postseason run. We can play the semantical game of whether or not it has ANY impact or ZERO impact, but the bottom line is it has very little to no impact so it's probably been discussed enough. I think Norm did a great job in describing the pitfalls of putting real weight in the postseason performance.
EDIT: Injuries in the postseason can be the one exception...whether it's getting a new injury, recovering from an injury, or successfully tweaking your game to compensate for an injury.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Oct 19, 2013 23:03:06 GMT -5
Remember what we were talking about at this time last season? LOL
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Post by beasleyrockah on Oct 19, 2013 22:15:25 GMT -5
Drew is just trolling us at this point.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Oct 19, 2013 22:05:45 GMT -5
And that's why Drew > WMB
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Post by beasleyrockah on Oct 19, 2013 16:33:40 GMT -5
My apologies I get carried away at times and this clearly is one of them. But people's reliance on statistics but more importantly their arrogant, belittling attitude towards anyone who suggests there are factors at play that can impact a team outside of what's measured in a statistic really pisses me off. I'm not sure if it's because their snarky attitudes (Keith Law jrs) makes me embarrassed at times to even sound like them when talking stats or if it's because I think they are incorrect (prob somewhere in the middle),but it's irrelevant. I wasted a page of posts and I'll move on. I enjoy the debates but there are no debates with the Keith laws of the world. Advanced stats have been great for baseball, but people treat them like Gospel and belittle anyone who doesn't as stupid. It's beyond annoying. [/b] You started this conversation by claiming advocating for Nava "isn't even a good debate", and only softened your stance as it progressed. I'm not trying to be confrontational or continue the argument, I just think it's important to acknowledge this dynamic for the sake of future discussion. No hard feelings hopefully. Now, to switch gears, I hope Gomes hits 3 bombs tonight. Go sox.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Oct 19, 2013 15:30:58 GMT -5
The crazy thing in all of this - how is it humanly possible for someone to have better intangibles than Daniel Nava? He got cut from Santa Clara! He signed for a dollar! Then he works so insanely hard that he finishes fifth in the AL in OBP? Yeah, I want those intangibles in my lineup, thank you. At the risk of confusing things, I'm going to address this. Daniel Nava worked hard to turn himself into a quality major league player after having to overcome obstacles. That doesn't mean he has an infectious personality that carries over to him teammates on the field, which is what Farrell is saying Gomes provides. You can scoff at it all you want but one of the mangers who believes in saber metrics more then almost any other in baseball believes it right now. Anyone who hasn't played sports at a high level in a winning environment is unqualified to speak on intangibles that fire up teammates and lead to winning. To blindly dismiss what most professional athletes say exists is ignorance at its best. Also, just because someone suggests it should factor in doesn't mean they dismiss stats, just that the difference in statistical analysis don't outweigh other value add. "Talking about Jonny's intangibles is not said to take away anything from his ability, or diminish what Daniel Nava has done for us,'' Farrell said in explaining his decision. "The team feeds off his energy,'' Farrell said Sunday after Boston's 6-5 victory. "If this guy (Verlander) is on, you can say you can throw out all the numbers,'' Farrell said. "But we know Jonny will give you a tough at-bat, and if a pitcher makes a mistake, he'll cover it.'' (Can sub Scherzer in there) Two key thing for people who love stats to keep in mind are: Statistics is a discipline that examines data and can calculate numerical estimates of "true" values. Statistics cannot prove anything. How about blindly accepting a decision a coach makes without having any actual arguments for it simply because you assume he knows more. Is that ignorance? What's that called? Oh I forgot, runs scored, hustle, and other factors. Gotcha. Sound logic. EDIT (mostly for tonality) The part you don't get is I entirely accept that Gomes could perform better than Nava in this game, or this series, against RHP. Flukey things happen in a small sample of baseball games. If Gomes goes 0-4 or 4-4 with 2 home runs I still disagree with the process behind making the decision. I reject that guys play better with Gomes in the lineup than they would in the dugout. I think that's absurd. If these guys need Gomes active to get fired up and concentrated on Game 6 of the ALCS shame on them.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Oct 19, 2013 13:59:16 GMT -5
Maybe it's an Angels in the Outfield scenario guys, hear me out. MAYBE just MAYBE John Farrell has a young child friend like Danny Glover and can see angels in the outfield powering up Gomes. I mean you can't measure angels in the outfield, doesn't mean they aren't there. They might not be able to help in the computer World Series though.
Anyone who has watched baseball knows managers can make idiotic, dumb decisions as well. So maybe it's just that. You lose by default when you say this isn't even a baseball argument but have to dismiss real evidence in favor of intangible things you can't measure. There's a name for it. Confirmation bias. It's a hell of a drug.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Oct 19, 2013 11:33:04 GMT -5
You guys are insane. I love it, but this is playoff baseball you do what you need to do to win and if that's flipping some scripts you do it. Law of averages don't matter anymore because you don't have time to let's samples play out. You go with the " hot-hand" or "what's working" for the most part. Nava isn't one of the core guys in the lineup, those are Els, Vic, Pedey and Ortiz. Those 4 you don't mess with too much (maybe you moveVic, but don't take him out). A guy like Nava had a great regular season for him, but he's not a dangerous hitter. You want to point to Nava's OBP vs Gomes OBP... Well who gives a rats ass when Nava has helped to produce ZERO runs. Hasn't scored or driven one in. Gomes has scored 5 runs and driven in 2 more. 7 separate runs he's been directly involved in. Sox are 1-3 in Nava games and 6-0 in Gomes games. Just because there isn't a stat for what Gomes brings to the field doesn't mean you ignore his impact. You have to look past the numbers or deeper into them with JG. Game 2: 1-4, Run and 3ks. His strikeouts came against Scherzer (saw 6-3-7 pitches respectively for an average of 5.3 per PA) then started the winning rally and scored the winning run in the 9th. Goes down as an IF single but it's probably through the hole with another SS. Regardless his hustle beat it out rather easily and who knows what impact his recklessness had on Fielder to help the ball go into the dugout. He had Good ABs on 2 of the Ks then helped produce the winning run. Won by a run. Game 3: He was 1-3 vs Verlander with 2ks... In the ABs he struck out he saw 9 and 7 pitches. Good ABs. Game 5: he was 0-4 with a run scored. Second AB his ground out advanced Napoli to 3rd who then scored on a wild pitch (run doesn't score that inning if he doesn't make a productive out. Won by a run. We talk about abandoning Nava, but he's played 4 of 10 to Gomes 6 of 10. At the time Farrell decided to make the adjustment they had basically split the games and Sox were losing with Nava playing and Gomes sitting. Farrell can't wait to make an adjustment. There isn't time. I know Nava is a nice story and people love him, but he's not the best option. Gomes should be playing and he is. It's not even a good debate from a playoff baseball point of view. Game isn't played on a computer don't treat it like it is. Nava started the series clinching win in the ALDS. One of "Nava's losses" was part of a 1-0 near no hitter that he broke up. Nava has three hits and three walks in 14 PA's. Gomes has 4 hits and 2 walks in 23 PA's. And you're over there talking about freaking runs scored? Yeah, that's sustainable. Usually guys who get on base less score more runs, right? Maybe if Nava was more gritty his teammates would be more motivated to knock him in. Nava was the RH option for the best team in baseball this year...you don't switch your season long strategy over 2 RBIs and a couple runs scored as if that means anything at all. If there's something else at play here fine, but don't tell me it's because Nava didn't get any RBI's or runs in four freaking games. Good grief indeed.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Oct 18, 2013 21:32:11 GMT -5
Kershaw got rocked. More proof that ace pitchers never lose playoff games. But yeah, if the Red Sox lose tomorrow it's over. No chance Verlander could lose twice.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Oct 18, 2013 11:26:53 GMT -5
Badler says Tanaka looks like a solid #2 starter - at age 24. I know the Yankees will be in on him, but to get a #2 for 6 yrs at an ave of $10M a year - for a posting fee that doesn't count against the Lux Tax. The Yankees are the Yankees but the Sox can do this if they want. Then they have trade chips in their own rotation that are high value, which can fill more positions off need, and perhaps at even more savings. I know they'll do the math on this. I pushed hard here for Darvish after seeing him a few times live in Japan. The Sox seemed to be gun-shy because of DiceK, which says to me they just didn't do their homework on Yu. Tanaka is being called the second coming of Kuroda with a FB that hits 95-95 (I've not seen him live but has some impressive game reports at Baseball America. I do hope they did their homework this time. The Red Sox maxed out their budget that year, they weren't spending money period. If they had actual financial flexibility and still abstained I think you'd have a case, but that whole offseason was built around being absurdly cheap and not filling the roster appropriately because the budget was apparently maxed out. The Dice-K saga might've made them more skeptical, but not making an offer at all spoke volumes about their payroll situation pre-Dodgers trade.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Oct 18, 2013 11:12:52 GMT -5
Yes. If even an average shortstop is in the game, that play doesn't get made - the body control Drew exhibited to basically change dircetion, recieve Lester's throw, and STILL be in position to turn the relay is really, really impressive. More to the point, a team with Middlebrooks at third and Bogaerts at short isn't really an upgrade offensively over Bogaerts/Drew - certainly not to where it's worth the downgrade on defense. There's really no reason to play Middlebrooks over Bogaerts at this point though, other than Middlebrooks was there first. And if that's going to be the deciding factor, let's get Butch Hobson over there. Bogaerts/WMB is a lot more potent offensively. Drew is 1-17, striking out about half the time this series. WMB has been bad but not nearly as bad as Drew. 3rd is also not Xanders position, SS is. I think it's important to remember Drew was a much better hitter than WMB this year, and it wasn't close. So no, 9 playoff games where both guys struggle mightily isn't changing anything in WMB's favor. I'm not sure why we're talking about Xander's natural position either, Drew is clearly superior defensively, and obviously you'd look to maximize defense at shortstop over third. I don't get where this Middlebrooks love comes from, he's been bad this season. I'm not expecting it to change at this point.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Oct 17, 2013 17:20:44 GMT -5
If you were Mike Napoli and it turns out the Red Sox had just signed Abreu before game 5 of the ALCS, you'd be pretty pissed, right? Not saying that this played into the Red Sox front office's decisionmaking process at all or that it should, but if I were the player, I would be furious. Reports stated he wouldnt sign for another two weeks so there is plenty of time for teams to jump back in. Also if it was down to the astros, us and white sox an it was a matter of us offering a little less then the others id think he would take that. Also as the quote above me states were in the play offs with Mike Napoli being our 1B who is important to this team an keeping him happy only makes sense right now so we could have a deal in place for all we no an want to keep it quite a couple more weeks. 60 mill over 6 years isnt all that bad. I cant imagine him being worse then 250 avg and 20-25 HRS. We need another power bat wether Napoli is coming back or not. We gain tons of draft picks this offseason letting most our FA's walk and get guys to replace them threw the minors, trades and signings like Jose Abreu. Those numbers tell me very little. How are his contact and walk rates, and does he provide any positional value? He could be a DH/less athletic Will Middlebrooks and I wouldn't want him on the 25 man roster. That guy could be a considerably less valuable Kendrys Morales, which would be an awful waste of resources. Don't be mistaken, with every deal there is risk and reward. I honestly don't see this super high upside at $70m+, he'd have to mash at top 5-10 elite levels or offer some defensive value to be that type of player some of the more optimistic posters are dreaming on. Supporting a move because it's not a franchise crippling risk isn't supporting logic for the move, neither is comparing it to past poor signings as if we should use CC as a jumping off point for future strategy. This isn't the type of prospect to go "all in" for, especially in a process that seems close to blind bids. I'm just happy they didn't abstain (Darvish) or bid substantially more than the other 29 teams (I think the Mets were in 2nd place with a bid around $35m but I can't remember).
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Post by beasleyrockah on Oct 14, 2013 16:58:59 GMT -5
Did you see this somewhere. I still think Nava would've been better than Gomes yesterday, go-ahead-run-hit included. That would be insane. And why not save Gomes on the bench for when a lefty comes in? That's just nuts. really though, other then the Ortiz hit the sox still hit like shit...... I dont think having nava in there would have made a difference... and if the sox play like they did the first 6 innings of the last two game it wont either Sure, but that's not the question. Just because the decision might not cost the game outright doesn't mean it's the right move. I'm not sure what we're doing if the defense of a questionable move is "well it might not matter anyways if the team plays poorly". Nava should get the start over Gomes unless Nava has some undisclosed injury.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Oct 11, 2013 19:59:32 GMT -5
I am not saying Abreu is going to impact the league like Lebron James did. Some of you need to freaking READ and comprehend better. I am saying that the amount of data we have available to us from numerous videos, on sight scouting reports at various international competitions and 6 years or so of participation in the cuban league is certainly more than the comparable data of trying to scout any high school player who has never even set foot on a a professional level court yet. If you all want to argue that point go at it but I'm not going to just roll over and play dead for you just because some of you disagree. As is often the case, sometimes you are just flat out wrong. No one here has a monopoly on analytical ability. Do you think that there were maybe some pretty bad players in the high school teams Lebron played against also? Yet you completely fail to realize projecting a BASEBALL PLAYER for BASEBALL PERFORMANCE/PRODUCTION is completely different than projecting SALES from a SPOKESPERSON/SPONSORED ATHLETE. Nike's "gamble" is nothing like an MLB team's gamble for a prospect. This entire comparison is absurd and should be treated accordingly. Also, no, there was WAY more scouting and information around LeBron than Abreu...that's not opinion, that's fact. I mean are we going to start comparing Bryce Harper to raw HS basketball players who project as late second round picks next? It isn't reasonable on any level.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Oct 11, 2013 16:00:08 GMT -5
I think it is fairly significant that Abreu is a 26 year old with a proven track record in international tournaments not to mention league leading performance with video game type numbers in the top league in Cuba. Compare that to Lebron James OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL and that was the no brainer call? I don't think so. It's more likely several people who want to be contrarian. Fro the sale of being contrarian. The guy had an OBP of well over .500 one year. A regular contender for the triple crown the last 2-3 years in a row. When Puig was in the league and Cespedes ...etc. I think the guy can probably play. The bidding starts at 5 years and $60 mil to me. He will get at least that. Yeah, being one of the best players on the planet while you're in HS is so much more risky than being overweight and 26.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Oct 8, 2013 23:45:49 GMT -5
Xander just gets it done, guy turned 21 just in time, he's not missing champagne celebrations. I love you all (except the nonbelievers, shun the nonbelievers).
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Post by beasleyrockah on Oct 8, 2013 23:09:33 GMT -5
Xander's speed is making these pitchers nervous.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Oct 8, 2013 11:34:44 GMT -5
No, "momentum" will have no effect on this series people. Like, hypothetically, didn't the Rays have all the "momentum" before the Red Sox destroyed them in games 1 and 2? And didn't the Red Sox have all the "momentum" tonight before they blew it? If the Red Sox do play a game 5, "momentum" will play no role, the game will be decided between David Price and Jon Lester. This Red Sox team isn't going to melt under elimination game pressure, sorry. Does every single event have to be turned into an easy narrative? You have no more idea than I do or anybody if this Red Sox team is going to melt under elimination game pressure or not. Your opinion is they won't. That's fine, hope you're right, and you're certainly entitled to the opinion. I picked the Rays in 5 because of Price pitching twice (not that it did them any good in Game 2, but the likelihood of him pitching two stinkers isn't too good), and the fact that I don't trust the Sox bullpen in a close game, although the irony is I do trust Koji in a close game. Once the Sox tied the game in the 9th I really thought they'd win. Really hope I'm wrong about my opinion of the Rays winning in 5 and I look stupid tomorrow night and I'd gladly admit how wrong I was if the Sox win. Not really though, no. The Red Sox could certainly play poorly because it's baseball and that happens. The bats could go silent, they could make errors, they could pitch poorly...but no, the Rays aren't going to play better because they have momentum, and the Red Sox aren't going to play poorly because they lost momentum. That isn't how it works. You can choose to chalk up the events to momentum shifts, but it really isn't credible. I've already cited the fact that momentum had nothing to do with games 1 and 2, and it had nothing to do with game 3. We can talk about the game without resorting to momentum talk. These are professional athletes who have all played in multiple elimination games before, if they play poorly it isn't due to fear of the stage or blowing a 0-2 lead...it's just one single poor performance, no different than blowing games in the regular season. Some fans can attach whatever meaning they want to that, but momentum isn't real. EDIT: Also, while David Price is always scary, he hasn't been good in the playoffs since he was a reliever. He's 0-4 in his 4 career playoff starts. Now I don't put much into that and he could certainly pitch lights out in a potential game 5. It's just to emphasize how baseless it was to claim the Red Sox would need a shutout to beat him. Strange things can happen in one baseball game, and David Price is no exception. The fact that he's lost four straight starts doesn't mean he's "due", and it doesn't mean he's doomed to have another stinker. It just means he isn't superman and he doesn't carry super powers.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Oct 7, 2013 22:42:31 GMT -5
Noticed the Fish outrighted Kevin Slowey today. He'll surely declare himself a FA. He's actually a servicable back end SP and has been the last few seasons. Extreme FB pitcher. Numbers (overall) about the same, or better than Doubrant even. He's one of that pile of "rubbish throwers" I used to pick on the Twins had in their rotation a few years ago, but he always managed to get people out and eat innings. Was thinking if the Sox maybe could get him on a split contract, they could maybe move Doubront in a deal since they already have Workman ready and Ranaudo and others nearly there with Slowey as insurance. Acquiring Kevin Slowey should have no impact on trading Doubront though. He certainly doesn't replace Doubront, he's just a depth body...and honestly the Red Sox could probably do better internally and externally.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Oct 7, 2013 22:36:24 GMT -5
No, "momentum" will have no effect on this series people. Like, hypothetically, didn't the Rays have all the "momentum" before the Red Sox destroyed them in games 1 and 2? And didn't the Red Sox have all the "momentum" tonight before they blew it? If the Red Sox do play a game 5, "momentum" will play no role, the game will be decided between David Price and Jon Lester. This Red Sox team isn't going to melt under elimination game pressure, sorry. Does every single event have to be turned into an easy narrative?
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