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Post by beasleyrockah on Oct 7, 2013 21:43:26 GMT -5
some help from the numbers guys....what are McGhee's reverse splits? I'm baffled by that one. McGee has reverse splits in a very small sample this year but over the course of his career it just isn't accurate. EDIT: I got the wrong stats from yahoo, must be a glitch. Carry on.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Oct 6, 2013 19:25:41 GMT -5
Since the Sox have catchers in the system that will be ready in 2-3 years it does limit the leverage that Salty has with the club. Different scenario than with Varitek where they had zero catching depth. Ideally Swihart comes up by 2015 and is cost controlled for 6 years and Vasquez is his backup. If Salty leaves then I think Vasquez could get a shot to start he played pretty well in the minors, is on the 40 man and by all accounts has pretty solid receiving skills. Don't break the bank on Salty. Salty is just coming into his own IMO. He can get better still. If I were the Yankees I would try to sign him and watch him nail 25 bombs & hit .275 in the Stadium. I would also go for Drew & Ellsbury and watch each hit 20 in N.Y. Losing Pettitte, Mariano, Arod, & possibly Kuroda plus others....frees up enough to sign all 3. If they did so, the Yankees could be back in a blink.... and they would not lose a draft pick. No one knows how our minor league catchers will turn out. Give me Salty and a defensive wiz like Vasquez (and his 23 passed balls) and wait for Swihart or someone else in 2-3 years. Sign the guy!!!! Do we really still have teh irrational Yankee fear? You said it yourself, the Yankees could lose Rivera, Pettitte, and Kuroda...what does their pitching staff look like exactly? I'd love to see them spend big for Ellsbury, Salty, and Drew...good luck signing Cano, patching together a rotation and bullpen and staying under the luxury tax.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Oct 5, 2013 16:56:34 GMT -5
Who's afraid of David Price? I think my tv is broken, it says the Red Sox have two runs and I've been told that's impossible
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Post by beasleyrockah on Oct 4, 2013 16:39:39 GMT -5
I blame the long layoff for not having 10+ runs right now, the bats are clearly compromised.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Oct 2, 2013 23:13:17 GMT -5
David Price CAN'T lose. Just like Verlander last year, with all that momentum, when he pitched lights out in the World Series. Or the year before, when Lee-Halladay-Hamels formed the perfect 5 game series rotation and totally didn't lose to Chris Carpenter. Twice. Oh, and all those playoff games Maddux/Glavine/Smoltz never lost. Ace pitchers never lose individual playoff games, ever.
Seriously, I respect Price a lot, but he's not the boogeyman. If you're going to claim they have no shot at beating Price (especially at home both times) you can't expect anything from this team in the postseason. What happens when they have the Tigers rotation? Or Kershaw/Greinke? Or any number of situations...like...cmon with this obnoxious negativity. I'm pretty sure everyone posting this rhetoric was real confident in their mediocre projections for the Red Sox this year and were proven dead wrong. Let's all enjoy the ride without listing the complete list of worst case scenarios. Those are things we can keep to ourselves.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Oct 2, 2013 22:50:07 GMT -5
Imagine Trumbo and Middlebrooks in the same lineup? The game threads would be even more insufferable.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Oct 2, 2013 19:44:58 GMT -5
Delmon Young, decider of playoff games. That's baseball. I'm not sure whether I love or hate it.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Oct 2, 2013 19:19:34 GMT -5
What are you guys gonna say if the Rays beat the Red Sox? " If only Cleveland would have beaten the Rays, the Red Sox would have totally beaten them" No. I think Tampa is especially well built for a short series. Cleveland is good enough to be here, and Jimenez seems to be peaking right now, but I think the Sox would prefer that match up since there is not Cobb, Moore and Archer waiting behind Jimenez but Kazmir, Klubler and Salazer. That's a proposition I think the Sox would prefer (and so would I). ADDED: I never bought into the idea that "We so totally beat so-and-so." I am a firm believer that anyone in the playoffs can win in a short series, and that the playoffs are basically a crap shoot. No worries though, Norbit. I never take anything out here personally. Cheers and go Sox. I don't know how much separation there is between Cobb and Archer vs. Kluber and Salazar. Kluber and Salazar (shorter sample but way more dominant) were just as good if not better over the course of this season. Given one start each I wouldn't be surprised to see Kluber and Salazar outpitch Cobb and Archer, I just don't see any track record that suggests those guys are significantly better options. All four are quality pitchers but none of those guys are aces or on their own tier, they are fairly similar...yet the Rays are getting pre-2004 Yankee fear from certain posters while the Indians are being talked about like a default first round bye.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Oct 1, 2013 19:13:29 GMT -5
I don't see the Sox as comfortable favorites against the Rays. I could see them as comfortable favorites against Cleveland, who I think will have their ten game winning streak end on Wednesday night. Moore has been shaky as far as his control goes and the Sox need to take Game 1. If not they could be staring at an 0-2 deficit given the way they hit or don't hit David Price. My best hope concerning Price was that this complete game effort was taxing to his arm. I'd hate to see Price twice in 5 games. If they split in Boston and then in Tampa Bay, I wouldn't like my chances in a Game 5 vs Price. I was hoping that Toronto would complete their comeback against Tampa, but they fell short. I was hoping Price would fail in the one place he's been terrible, but he was his ace self and my last hope is that somehow Danny Salazar shuts down Tampa and Cobb somehow has an off game. I'm trying to think of Texas as the sacrificial lamb that got stuck facing Price rather than Cleveland who will still have their hands full with Cobb, but the more I look at it the more I think the Sox will indeed be facing Tampa Bay, the team I least want to see in the first round. Ignoring everything else about this statement, the Red Sox could come back from that 0-2 hole and it would only be the fourth or fifth most impressive series comeback they've had in the last 15 years or so. So bring that on too.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Sept 29, 2013 12:42:29 GMT -5
So the Red Sox could possibly face Moore and Price in games 1 and 2, that sucks. The idea of Matt Moore is much scarier than the pitcher himself. As of this comment he has 9 walks in his last 6 IP. I still like him long term (he's the classic high risk/high upside candidate), but if you're afraid to face this guy right now, well, it's the playoffs...what do you expect? He's certainly not an ace at this point.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Sept 24, 2013 15:18:50 GMT -5
Do we really have to include a stud like Hazelbaker in this package to get it done? Maybe headline a deal with Zach Kapstein and the rights to Shaq Thompson?
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Post by beasleyrockah on Sept 23, 2013 13:07:33 GMT -5
FYI: with one win being about $6m on the open market, a 2.5 WAR player would, in theory, be worth $15m. It's a bit dated ( fangraphs), but... Position | N | 2007-2001 $/WAR | C | 116 | 4.2 | 1B | 132 | 6.0 |
But we also know that $/WAR change on the win-curve. I don't really know how or if that would change the value placed on Napoli, but there are only 7 1B making $15M or greater (Teixeira, Gonzalez, Fielder, Howard, Votto, Pujols and Morneau). All of whom signed their contracts after better (significantly?) seasons than Napoli. I get what you're saying, but would you be comfortable with Napoli on a multi-year contract at $15M per? I think it's an overpay on a replaceable and overperforming player. No, which is why you "overpay" to avoid a multiyear commitment and create leverage/possibly land a draft pick. The Red Sox don't need to pinch pennies for next year's team, they still have financial flexibility.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Sept 17, 2013 16:52:38 GMT -5
While I think the quiet period has "some" benefit/negotiating edge I'm certainly not convinced tampering doesn't occur. Every other professional sports league has widespread tampering during these periods and I'm not naive to believe the MLB has everyone following the rules. Napoli and Salty will likely have a very good idea what teams are interested and how much they could get...it won't be perfect, but they won't be going into FA blind.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Sept 12, 2013 17:32:34 GMT -5
Which wasn't a projection. But I am glad that this is important enough to you to crawl back through old postings. Mrs. Nava will be so happy, but jealous. I thought you promised to be done for the night...
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Post by beasleyrockah on Aug 13, 2013 18:26:48 GMT -5
What do we do with all of this money that Sox supposedly have next year? Hope that a 1st baseman, power hitter all of a sudden appears? Many of you are somehow thinking this is your retirement money. Do you not want the Red Sox to use their financial might or would you rather we just settled for a Carp/Hassan split? Yes it could be a total bust and flop. So what are you saying....don't even try? I agree that Abreu could be a complete flop, but he may not. This is not Dice-K numeral 2. Get over that. It all comes down too....do we take a chance or not. Granted it is not my money, but it is not yours either. I want the Sox to continually try to be the best team in the world. Don't you want the same thing? Jose Dariel Abreu may be a big part of our line-up for years, but he may not. I'm heading to Europe in 3 weeks. I may crash over the Atlantic and then again....I may not and have a great time. WHAT would be enough proof for some of you that he is a potentially a guy we need to go after BIG time? He has thrived in International games. He has had ridiculous numbers for several years in the Cuban League. It seems like some of you are wanting to talk yourself out of taking a chance. Why? It has nothing to do with it being my money or not. I want the Red Sox to win every year, I understand they have a budget, so I want the money spent as efficiently as possible to maximize the winning. I can't stand the "it's not your money" stuff, that's terrible rationale to justify any given proposal. I was told the same thing after the CC signing, yet those same people whined when the Red Sox were stuck up against the luxury tax and couldn't capitalize on opportunities to "flex their financial muscle". The Red Sox can flex their financial muscle in another way, they aren't choosing between Carp/Hassan or Abreu, there are other options. It's important to not make a poor evaluation just because the team has a need and you can dream on this guy being able to fill that need. The whole supporting argument can't be 1. it's not your money 2. you could crash in a plane 3. he played well in a handful of exhibition games and in international play...this guy is likely to get a significant contract, and perhaps superior MLB options will exist for less of a cost. This player is intriguing but can't we just leave it at that? The range of outcomes for this player is extreme for the type of contract he'll likely land.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Aug 8, 2013 19:16:24 GMT -5
Oh those darn "stat guys". They're even worse than the boogie man... Nah, they just tend to dismiss anything they can't explain with math. As opposed to the traditionalists who dismiss math when it goes against things they want to be true.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Aug 2, 2013 10:53:42 GMT -5
Eck and Pedro in the booth would be my dream combo. It would become the ultimate drinking game, a drink for every FCC violation.
PS I wonder if Don and Remy have heard of Cecchini yet. I think they found out about Xander last week.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Jul 31, 2013 21:57:42 GMT -5
Remember 12 months ago when the franchise was doomed for the next 20 years, lol. It looks like the "roundtable decision makers" did a good job this season. Oh that's right, they only get unconditional blame...rabble rabble Lucchino rabble rabble
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Post by beasleyrockah on Jul 31, 2013 2:19:40 GMT -5
Great trade, easily the best the Red Sox have made in a long time (which isn't saying much but still). The indirect effect of Xander becoming the indisputable shortstop of the future is almost as good as acquiring Peavy.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Jul 28, 2013 16:37:02 GMT -5
Are Josh Hamilton and Albert Pujols struggling because they can't fit in the tough Anaheim market...or do players sometimes just get old/hurt/decline? Every player who doesn't meet expectations here isn't some casualty of the intense market. This isn't the 2004 Red Sox, this team is not under the usual scrutiny. The Boston media tells us how hard it is to play in Boston...because, take it from them, they ask really tough questions and not all players can handle their awesomeness. Guys like Edgar Renteria get labeled as a player who can't hack it in Boston. They ignore that he played through a back injury basically all year, and also ignore that he was able to win a WS MVP and score the winning run in another World Series. I'm not sure how a guy can't "handle the pressure" of regular season Boston baseball yet can somehow handle the pressures of the World Series. Carl Crawford isn't the same guy in LA either, this is a really silly argument. I mean, last time Papelbon pitched here he blew 2 saves in the final month and ended the season...if that was Bailey or Hanrahan it would be "proof" they couldn't handle the market. Pass on Papelbon, even if it's just picking up his contract.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Jul 28, 2013 10:13:20 GMT -5
I was out of the country for a while and missed a lot of baseball but I'm fairly confident I read somewhere on this board that Nava looked like he injured himself a few weeks back. Is this true? As far as "pitchers adjusting", last year Nava seemed to just be playing through an injury and that could've impacted his numbers more than any league wide adjustment. It seems too simple to suggest he comes out hot and then pitchers simply adjust and counter it and that explains everything. It's not like he was doing anything to start this year that he wasn't doing in the past, why would pitchers need that new sample size to get a game plan to attack him? I don't understand that. I don't see how they could've collectively adjusted last year, forgot about those adjustments to start this year, then collectively switched back over this recent sample size (which isn't even that bad). The "league wide adjustments" angle seems like an easy narrative, but couldn't it just be injuries and durability issues? It seems like every year Jed Lowrie has similar great starts followed by coming back to earth and those weren't due to any real adjustments, just his inability to stay healthy over a full season...maybe Nava's just a guy who breaks down over a full season.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Jul 23, 2013 15:33:34 GMT -5
I thought the FO new strategy was to sacrifice AAV savings in exchange for less years. Let's say they had done that at 4x$20 instead. Then you would have only two more years at $5M each to get to 6 years, $90m total. Or 3x$22M, plus 3 more at $8m. They have years to plan around those end-of-career blues and the lux threshold is (presumably?) only going up. I wasn't talking about the strategy in reference to the length of the extension, if they were going to extend him the length is appropriate. I'm talking in reference to guaranteeing those years now rather than making him earn it the next two years in hopes of saving money long term. I'd rather risk those long term savings and reserve the right to not guarantee him anything for 2016+ right now. People rightfully cite how much financial flexibility the Red Sox have right now, but to me that's all the more reason to not rush into these deals with veterans. If Pedroia stayed healthy and performed the next two years and earned a 5-6 year deal at $20m per and they lost $4-6m in AAV vs. this current extension it wouldn't have been the end of the world. He certainly could've earned even more than that with the way baseball is going, but he could also have an injury and have his skills diminish too. I just don't like assuming long term risk unless it's a slam dunk, and this is simply fair and not a slam dunk.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Jul 23, 2013 15:00:39 GMT -5
Not really, Cano will be a free agent. Completely different situation. I think that's the point. Lock him up ahead of time for cheaper. It's the whole reason they did this. Cano stayed healthy and is performing in his walk year, Pedroia would still have to do that the next two seasons. I thought the FO new strategy was to sacrifice AAV savings in exchange for less years. Sure, it's the fan favorite, but now that just goes out the window? They had no money on the books long term, I'd rather they DID pay more money in the long term while keeping the option of not re-signing him for 2016 and beyond if he started to break down/decline the next two seasons. If they were going to commit long term either way sure, save the money now...but they could've chose to let him walk as well. I don't hate this deal, it's fair market value and I love Pedroia, but there's a lot of risk here. EDIT: Fair market value meaning for a player 2+ years from FA. Point of reference being Kinsler's extension.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Jul 23, 2013 14:44:43 GMT -5
Anybody who doesn't like this deal needs to wait and compare it to whatever Cano gets. Not really, Cano will be a free agent. Completely different situation.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Jul 23, 2013 14:20:05 GMT -5
Didi Gregorius was dealt for Trevor Bauer so it's not as crazy as it sounds. Wake me up when Cole starts to miss bats again.
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