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10/5 Red Sox vs, Rays ALDS Game 2 Thread
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Post by Jonathan Singer on Oct 4, 2013 22:54:53 GMT -5
10/5 Red Sox (RHP John Lackey) vs. Rays (LHP David Price) 5:37 pm ET, TBS/WEEI ALDS Game 2Season SeriesRed Sox won 12-7 over the Rays How they got here?Red Sox 97-65 AL East Champions Rays 92-71 Beat Texas in AL Wild Card 1-game tiebreaker and Cleveland in 1-game Wild Card playoff Playoff HistoryPlayoff Appearances: 22 (Last in 2009) Last World Series Title: 2007 over Colorado Last playoff meeting with Tampa: 2008 ALCS won by Tampa in 7 games MLB StandingsRed Sox Hitting StatsRed Sox Pitching StatsMLB ScoreboardMLB TransactionsWeatherSeries Thread Disclaimer: The SoxProspects Moderators will be somewhat liberal in policing the Red Sox "Series" Threads. Some of the Ground Rules are applied loosely in here, as we understand that there is a tendency to want to react (or overreact) to every play of a Sox game with one line reactionary posts. Those posts are okay in the Red Sox Series threads to a point - we certainly appreciate the passion. Just try not to overdo it, and try to maintain some semblance of reason. In addition, please don't let those type of posts spill over to other more substantive threads, where they may be deleted. -The Management
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 5, 2013 5:27:44 GMT -5
How good is David Price right now? How much of his season is relevant?
Clearly the 5.24 ERA he put up before he went on the DL in mid-May is meaningless. He has a 2.53 ERA in 18 starts since returning on July 2.
But that breaks down into 3 chunks:
1.40 ERA in 8 starts, July 2 to August 9 4.78 ERA in 5 starts, August 14 to September 5 2.55 ERA in 5 starts, September 10 to 30.
The easy conclusion is that he's still a 2.53 or 2.55 guy. But I don't think that's right.
Let's break down the three periods:
K% BB% HRC BABIP XBH% GB% LD% xBP .192 .009 .033 .220 .179 .454 .180 .261 .210 .043 .010 .356 .278 .422 .277 .309 .216 .037 .010 .303 .300 .490 .300 .335 HRC is HR per contact, XBH% is (2B + 3B) / hits in play, and xBP is his expected BABIP based on his GB, LD, PU, OF-FB breakdown if he had league-average BABIP on each.
There's no statistically significant difference between his last 5 starts and the previous 5 at all, in terms of results. The three true outcome rates are almost identical. The increase in GB% has a 33% chance of being random. The decline in BABIP has a 42% chance.
Notice I said "in terms of results." Because there is a statistically significant difference: his swinging strike percentage has gone down from .097 to .061, which has a 2.5% chance of being random. That could be related to a real increase in GB%, but his LD% has also gone up, so it's hard to explain the decline in BABIP (which is completely responsible for the big drop in ERA) on some kind of successful pitch-to-contact strategy.
So let's combine the last two lines and compare his 8 brilliant starts to his last 10:
K% BB% HRC BABIP XBH% GB% LD% xBP .192 .009 .033 .220 .179 .454 .180 .261 .213 .040 .010 .330 .288 .455 .287 .322 The K% increase has a 56% chance of being random. Chi-square isn't strictly accurate for raw values of less than 5, and he only walked 2 guys in those 10 starts, but that's clearly a significant increase (which is what chi-square says). The LD% increase has a 1.3% chance of being random, and the BABIP increase has a 1.8%. The increase in XBH%, though not statistically significant (21% chance of being random), is of course consistent with the increase in LD% and BABIP.
So the David Price we're facing has a 3.61 ERA and .263 / .294 / .363 allowed in his last 10 starts. That line probably includes 2 unlucky hits, but he's probably had good luck on homers.
That's a good pitcher, but it's nothing special. In fact, it's a pretty even matchup with Lackey (3.52 ERA, .247 / .290 / .413).
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Post by brianthetaoist on Oct 5, 2013 7:57:34 GMT -5
Saw this article in the Tampa Tribune about Wil Myers, was pretty impressed (reading through the obvious homer-ism of the article). He went out on Yawkey Way after the game with a friend and signed some autographs. Takes some fortitude to do that after the game he had ... Still, tho, the sight of him just casually walking away from the fly ball as it bounces on the warning track cracks me up every time.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Oct 5, 2013 8:46:35 GMT -5
Saw this article in the Tampa Tribune about Wil Myers, was pretty impressed (reading through the obvious homer-ism of the article). He went out on Yawkey Way after the game with a friend and signed some autographs. Takes some fortitude to do that after the game he had ... Still, tho, the sight of him just casually walking away from the fly ball as it bounces on the warning track cracks me up every time. It takes nuts to play the game, and a different mindset. May have been his way of keeping his alignment, or of prepping for today. I don't think its an accident that TB found a different gear after he showed up, and it's easy to predict that KC will be casting a rueful eye his way long after Shields has left the scene.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Oct 5, 2013 9:28:10 GMT -5
It takes nuts to play the game, and a different mindset. May have been his way of keeping his alignment, or of prepping for today. I don't think its an accident that TB found a different gear after he showed up, and it's easy to predict that KC will be casting a rueful eye his way long after Shields has left the scene.What's amazing to me is that I've actually heard people talking about what a successful season KC had. When really, trading away your future in order to have a season bad enough to miss the playoffs but good enough to keep Moore and Yost from losing their jobs is basically the worst possible scenario for them. Because lord knows Moore is going to make all the wrong moves this offseason and they're going to be worse next year, and the next thing you know, that core is going to be old/expensive and it'll be time to blow it all up again. (I know this is like general MLB talk or whatever, but I'm pretty sure that come 5pm this thread will easily find it's way back to the Sox/Rays)
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Oct 5, 2013 10:33:22 GMT -5
To get the thread back to Sox/Rays, you know the guy I feel a tiny bit bad for?? Nava. By all accounts he was one of the best players in the league this past season, but he will probably be on the bench today in deference to Gomes because of Gomes' penchant for hitting LH. It isn't as though Nava has a limitless future ahead of him, and every chance he misses to contribute to team success is one he isn't going to get back. It would be nice for a feel-good story like him to cap off a magical season with some post-season heroics, regardless of how far the team goes in the playoffs. Presumably he'll get his chances down the line.
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semperfisox
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Post by semperfisox on Oct 5, 2013 10:48:47 GMT -5
yay I get to see this game! Woot Woot go Sox!!
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Post by rangoon82 on Oct 5, 2013 11:03:45 GMT -5
Chi-square isn't strictly accurate for raw values of less than 5, and he only walked 2 guys in those 10 starts, but that's clearly a significant increase (which is what chi-square says). Could you use Fishers Exact Test?
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Post by Oregon Norm on Oct 5, 2013 11:08:42 GMT -5
What's amazing to me is that I've actually heard people talking about what a successful season KC had. When really, trading away your future in order to have a season bad enough to miss the playoffs but good enough to keep Moore and Yost from losing their jobs is basically the worst possible scenario for them. Because lord knows Moore is going to make all the wrong moves this offseason and they're going to be worse next year, and the next thing you know, that core is going to be old/expensive and it'll be time to blow it all up again. (I know this is like general MLB talk or whatever, but I'm pretty sure that come 5pm this thread will easily find it's way back to the Sox/Rays) When you look at the KC position prospects the ones who were thought to be gold - Moustakas, and Hosmer - Myers is much better than either of them, so naturally that's who Friedman got hold of in exchange for Shields. That's before we even discuss Odorizzi who must be invisible as far as the press is concerned. His inclusion insures the understanding of how one-sided this trade was among baseball people. It will be the gift that keeps on giving for a long, long time.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Oct 5, 2013 11:16:14 GMT -5
I wouldn't say he is better than Eric Hosmer who rebounded pretty well last year and is still just 23 y/o.
Not that I disagree that it was a terrible trade.
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Post by jmei on Oct 5, 2013 11:22:21 GMT -5
To get the thread back to Sox/Rays, you know the guy I feel a tiny bit bad for?? Nava. By all accounts he was one of the best players in the league this past season, but he will probably be on the bench today in deference to Gomes because of Gomes' penchant for hitting LH. It isn't as though Nava has a limitless future ahead of him, and every chance he misses to contribute to team success is one he isn't going to get back. It would be nice for a feel-good story like him to cap off a magical season with some post-season heroics, regardless of how far the team goes in the playoffs. Presumably he'll get his chances down the line. Farrell is just making the right move. Nava is hitting .252/.311/.336 versus lefties in 2013 and .223/.307/.328 over his career. Nava will still get plenty of playing time versus righties-- he'll start in games three and four, and if the Red Sox advance, both Oakland and Detroit only have right-handed pitchers in their rotation.
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Post by tonyc on Oct 5, 2013 13:26:06 GMT -5
A friend of mine who's written for years for Sports Illustrated has said game two tends to be the key game in a series. I think that's quite true here, just as it was against the Reds in '75 (they won game won and were winning game two, but lost it and lost the series on the road). If the sox win, their consistency during the season makes 3 losses in a row unlikely, plus it's unlikely they even face Price a second time. Whereas a loss by the sox takes away their home edge and makes a game 5 in which they face him quite possible. On a different note, I wish Farrell had given Bogaerts an atbat late in the blowout yesterday to get his feet wet for what may be a more critical appearance later in the series. It seems that perhaps he is managing like a pitching coach- I agreed with his roster choices and pitching moves, but a few of the hitting moves, namely this one irritate me.
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Post by Guidas on Oct 5, 2013 13:35:14 GMT -5
To get the thread back to Sox/Rays, you know the guy I feel a tiny bit bad for?? Nava. By all accounts he was one of the best players in the league this past season, but he will probably be on the bench today in deference to Gomes because of Gomes' penchant for hitting LH. It isn't as though Nava has a limitless future ahead of him, and every chance he misses to contribute to team success is one he isn't going to get back. It would be nice for a feel-good story like him to cap off a magical season with some post-season heroics, regardless of how far the team goes in the playoffs. Presumably he'll get his chances down the line. Farrell is just making the right move. Nava is hitting .252/.311/.336 versus lefties in 2013 and .223/.307/.328 over his career. Nava will still get plenty of playing time versus righties-- he'll start in games three and four, and if the Red Sox advance, both Oakland and Detroit only have right-handed pitchers in their rotation. And to further that very sound logic, Drew is hitting .196/.246/.340/.586 vs. lefties in 2013 and is 0-10 vs. Price. Whereas there's a guy on the bench who kills lefties and plays the same position as Drew. I get the defensive argument to keep Drew over Bogaerts in the line-up, however, even if the drop-off in D from Nava to Gomes is not as dramatic as Drew to Bogaerts, I am not sure it is as dramatic as everyone says, either. In a game where offensive opportunities will likely be at a premium vs. David Price, I want as many as I can get (and if Drew is playing he should at least bat 9th). This completes my obligatory "Xander is better against lefties than Stephen Drew" posting for this game. On behalf of all of us here on Bogaerts > Drew vs. Lefties Island, we thank you for your indulgence.
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Post by Guidas on Oct 5, 2013 14:04:44 GMT -5
@alexspeier Sox ALDS Gm 2 vs. TB: Ellsbury CF, Victorino RF, Pedroia 2B, Ortiz DH, Napoli 1B, Gomes LF, Middlebrooks 3B, Drew SS, Ross C, Lackey SP
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Oct 5, 2013 14:07:50 GMT -5
Drew, grumble grumble, etc.
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Post by jmei on Oct 5, 2013 14:15:41 GMT -5
Drew, grumble grumble, etc.
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wcp3
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Post by wcp3 on Oct 5, 2013 14:19:20 GMT -5
There isn't enough of a sample to know that Xander would be a better offensive option than Drew against guys like Price or Moore. As of now, he's definitely not the better defensive option. This isn't really a debate right now.
Xander will start at shortstop next year. At 21.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 5, 2013 16:25:40 GMT -5
Of course, Lackey has a big pre-ASB / post-ASB split: 2.78 ERA at the break, 4.35 since.
His GB% has gone from .519 to .433, which is statistically significant (p = .04). His K rate has declined from .225 to .188 (20% chance of being random, but probably real given the change in GB%) and his LD% is up from .184 to .229. He had a .276 BABIP (.283 expected) before, .289 since (.292 expected).
Looking at his OPS allowed, I think the ERA split has been exaggerated by better / worse performance with runners on. But he's definitely been less sharp.
I've looked at his pitch/fx data and there's nothing obvious. He's lost an inch of armside run on his fastball. He's not throwing his curve for strikes as often (from .621 to .527) and is throwing it less (.125 to .071), and getting far fewer swinging strikes (.118 to .043). But he's actually had better movement on his slider. It's possible that the decline in the curve is causing his FB to be less effective.
So if there's a key to look for in this game, it might be whether he gets any swings and misses with the 79-mph curve. And of course, if he's getting ground balls, that's very big, and not just because it makes us happy that Drew is at SS.
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wcp3
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Post by wcp3 on Oct 5, 2013 16:39:08 GMT -5
Are you kidding me Lackey?
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Post by jmei on Oct 5, 2013 16:39:29 GMT -5
Lackey not looking sharp while walking the leadoff hitter.
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Post by jmei on Oct 5, 2013 16:40:35 GMT -5
He just has no fastball command so far. It doesn't help that he's gotten semi-squeezed on a couple pitches.
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wcp3
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Post by wcp3 on Oct 5, 2013 16:43:39 GMT -5
I think we need to analyze the Myers mis-play a little more.
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Post by Guidas on Oct 5, 2013 16:47:09 GMT -5
If Price gets that same strike zone in the bottom of the first Sox will be fine.
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Post by jmei on Oct 5, 2013 16:52:23 GMT -5
Ellbsury is such a weapon.
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Post by jmei on Oct 5, 2013 16:55:46 GMT -5
Who's afraid of David Price?
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