|
Post by tjb21 on Jun 23, 2016 10:42:55 GMT -5
It would be irresponsible to not try him out there at this point. I'm leaning towards this stance too.
|
|
|
Post by tjb21 on Jun 23, 2016 10:19:24 GMT -5
I think this team has reached it's potential with IT as a starter. The issue I see with having better players surrounding him is: he needs high usage to be maximized. If he's the 3rd or 4th option, he is marginalized and his defensive limitations start to take over.
I'm not sure what he would fetch in a trade but I think he's the guy to move if they are going to trade a 'core' piece. He is clearly essential to the roster as constructed, but the roster as constructed isn't going anywhere.
The more I think about it, the more Boston should probably sit out the FA market (again) and wait until the trade deadline to better assess everything. I don't think this is the summer of fireworks either and I'm ok with it.
|
|
|
Post by tjb21 on Jun 23, 2016 9:35:41 GMT -5
I think Smart needs those minutes. Rozier could slide into it as well, they have a lot of guard options.
Onuaku is the guy I want drafted sometime, I'm a lot higher on him than most. I consider him a top 12 prospect in this draft and I'm willing to be wrong on him. Luwawu/Baldwin/Davis would be great gets with their 2nd pick if they can move up a little. Bembry/Hernangomez/McCaw/Levert are guys who I'm interested in at the end of the 1st, early 2nd.
|
|
|
Post by tjb21 on Jun 23, 2016 8:48:10 GMT -5
Yeah Maker really seems like a nice kid, but hasn't improved or dominated like a kid should with his size/length. He seemed like a very late 1st round pick at best to me, even if he is 19. I'd probably bet on Qi than him -- and who knows how old he is either.
|
|
|
Post by tjb21 on Jun 23, 2016 7:51:32 GMT -5
I guess that brings me to the question of can you win with a team of depth and not the top heavy star teams? I think you can as long as that depth has a certain level of quality. You also need all the right pieces to fit together almost perfectly so it's obviously much much harder. And your "depth" players, at least some of them need to be the close to all-star types like Thomas was last year. I think this is the key. Depth for the sake of depth isn't worth much in the playoffs. Rotations usually are trimmed down by then. The 2004 Pistons team only had 1 All-Star (Ben Wallace). Not sure you need a "superstar" to win a title, but I think it's rare when a a team does win without one. The 4 teams competing for a title this year: Spurs -- Leonard (2nd in MVP voting + DPOY) Cavs -- LeBron OKC -- Durant/RWB Warriors -- Curry Kind of hard to argue against that it takes a superstar to compete for a title in the near future.
|
|
|
Post by tjb21 on Jun 22, 2016 14:31:22 GMT -5
My quick thought on the Utah/Indy/ATL trade: Hill > #12 > Teague Not sure what the Pacers are doing here. They're letting Solomon Hill walk for no reason. They signed Monta. They traded Hill for another PG, who is likely a worse fit next with Monta. Oh well. Chavo, you and I are thinking alike here. I've wanted Boston to package picks to move up somewhere from 8-12 to get a player like Brown or Davis. Trading for Noel seems unlikely with picks in that range at this time. If a trade could be found to do that I think it would be ideal. The only issue though is that it kind of locks us into going with a guard with the top pick, which is fine, but I think there are valid concerns that have been raised with Murray (though I do think he seems like he has the body type/age profile to improve his athleticism in an NBA strength and conditioning program) and to me, Dunn at 3 feels like a reach- he's not a good fit with the personnel already on the roster or our team needs. He fits the high character/high work ethic mould and he's clearly very talented, but what are we going to do with another 6'4 athletic guard with questionable jumper and excellent defense? On the Pacers, I'd generally agree, but I'd also have to give Larry Bird the benefit of the doubt, he's been pretty good at spotting talent/fit over the years, and it seems like he may have just bought low on Teague, who apparently played on a partially torn patellar tendon this year and was way better last season Their entire team is made up of guards at this point. I'm thinking if anything it gives them more time to wait on Bender to develop behind/with a guy like Noel cemented in.
|
|
|
Post by tjb21 on Jun 22, 2016 14:11:02 GMT -5
My quick thought on the Utah/Indy/ATL trade: Hill > #12 > Teague
Not sure what the Pacers are doing here. They're letting Solomon Hill walk for no reason. They signed Monta. They traded Hill for another PG, who is likely a worse fit next with Monta. Oh well.
Chavo, you and I are thinking alike here. I've wanted Boston to package picks to move up somewhere from 8-12 to get a player like Brown or Davis. Trading for Noel seems unlikely with picks in that range at this time.
|
|
|
Post by tjb21 on Jun 22, 2016 12:38:51 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by tjb21 on Jun 22, 2016 10:40:30 GMT -5
@statcenter:
Jaylen Brown scouting report: Pros: got to FT line a lot, highly rated in HS, appearance of a real player Cons: literally everything else
I think he can be a good player but if you watched him play this year, it was really ugly. I'm ok with him around 8 or so if they can trade up later, but at #3 I would be pretty upset. Not sure where the "he's got a really high floor" comments are coming from but I don't think that is close to reality unfortunately.
|
|
|
Post by tjb21 on Jun 22, 2016 8:51:13 GMT -5
Can the Murray/Hield fans let me know what they see in them?
Bender really hasn't been compared to Porzingis by the way he plays basketball.
|
|
|
Post by tjb21 on Jun 21, 2016 15:17:33 GMT -5
Bender likely has the 2nd highest potential of anyone in the draft. I typically try not to evaluate prospects by their absolute ceiling, since it's rare any of them hit it.
Still think he can be better than Middleton, but it will take a few years to know. He's my clear third best prospect on the board, the drop off after Simmons is more than the drop from Bender to the next fellow for me. Some have Bender above Ingram, I'm not there yet.
I'd trade the #3 for Khris.
|
|
|
Post by tjb21 on Jun 21, 2016 13:46:15 GMT -5
Ah well, wish it worked out better for Rusney and Boston.
Wonder how many people crushing the signing now were ecstatic at the time. Might have to peek back at that thread..
|
|
|
Post by tjb21 on Jun 21, 2016 13:41:20 GMT -5
After looking at that hypothetical deal, I think I was wrong.
Boston would likely have to add more to the #3 pick in a deal for Middleton.
|
|
|
Post by tjb21 on Jun 21, 2016 12:52:34 GMT -5
Middleton (at least before he signed his extension last year) rated super high by ESPN's RPM especially defensively. The only question I have is if we were going to do that, who are we dealing? The 3rd pick doesn't really make sense for him- he's a 2/3 and our backcourt is crowded, and we have Crowder on the wing, so unless one of bradley/crowder is moved, what do we do there? I'd rather flip crowder for him straight up and maybe get a pick back, given that Crowder is effectively just as good and making half the money. Otherwise you just have another player in front of Smart, which is not what you want in my mind. Setting all that aside, I still wouldn't really like that deal- Middleton doesn't really have the upside to be worth the 3rd pick. We need to swing for the fences for the moment, given the youth/upside that's already on the roster and the picks we have, so if you can't get someone who is a serious upgrade on one our starters and might inhibit the younger guys' development, I don't think you do it Would absolutely not give Philly the 3rd pick for anything they have on their roster right now. Maybe if we could get the lakers pick next year (which is top-2 protected) and figure out some way of moving up into the mid-late lottery I'd consider it, but none of their young guys have been overly impressive. There's no way Okafor is worth it in the modern NBA- he's basically young Al Jefferson with noticeable character concerns, and maybe not even the chance to be as good a defender (not that big Al is much of one). Nerlens would be a good fit, but not for the third pick- he's in his 4th year now and was the 6th pick in his own draft, why would we give up 3 for a rental who's not certain to move the needle much? Yeah, Crowder isn't near the player. I think he's being severely overrated by fans -- but maybe that's normal. We'd have to add a decent amount to Crowder for that swap to happen. If you haven't had a chance to see Middleton play, you've missed out. He is really good. I have no idea why Milwaukee would want to trade him.
|
|
|
Post by tjb21 on Jun 21, 2016 10:53:00 GMT -5
Twitter chatter...
@probballdraft: "Boston has discussed 3 and a contract for Khris Middleton. Danny Ainge wants to add a scorer."
I really like Middleton a lot, hoping we can get a little more value out of the 3, like swapping the #16 and #10 picks. This looks like the type of deal I figured Danny would make. I'd be content.
|
|
|
Post by tjb21 on Jun 21, 2016 9:54:12 GMT -5
I'm hoping for Bender, and packaging a few picks to move up into the mid-lottery to nab Brown. He might be available around #9.
Starting to talk myself into him. He sort of has the feel/questions Mudiay did/does. Could be really good, could never shoot, shoes signs of brilliance, etc
|
|
|
Post by tjb21 on Jun 21, 2016 9:51:37 GMT -5
Did everyone forget the Atlanta series when we couldn't score for long stretches of time? Okafor would most certainly help in that regards and help open up our 3 point shooters. In regular season a fast paced run and gun offense works we!l. In playoffs teams slow down pace and you need to be able to score in half court offense, which we really struggled with. That trade makes a lot of sense for both teams in my opinion. Let's take a look at the numbers on Okafor: On 315 post-up possessions, he scored 0.85 points per possession, with was the 54.7th percentile. He can certainly score in the post, but his TS% is 53.6, so let's not get carried away.. It's extremely tough to build a team around his skill-set in this league. When you add in the face that Okafor is one of the worst defensive players in the league, he likely isn't the answer to any question on Boston's roster. Now Noel... he's interesting. Going to cost so much once his deal is up, but I think they Philly would likely need to throw in a little more to make the deal work -- as others have said, not sure what/who. Robert Covington would likely be too much for them.
|
|
|
Post by tjb21 on Jun 20, 2016 10:30:40 GMT -5
I've learned to not really pay attention to Chad Ford, except when he's going back and changing his draft order after the draft happens.
Not sure I want Okafor on a team I root for, hard to building an offense or defense around his deficiencies.
Boston isn't going to compete without 2 mega stars (at least). KD isn't coming unfortunately. Not sure who else available moves the needle enough to transform Boston into a serious contender with the Cle/OKC/GS/Spurs of the league, without completely gutting their team. This off-season was set up to be magical, space for 2 max players, plus the ability to move pieces for a 3rd really good player. It's just not happening.
Might as well wait another year, improve their roster and see where they're at. Not sure there's a better plan that I'm seeing. What do y'all think?
|
|
|
Post by tjb21 on Jun 17, 2016 14:45:38 GMT -5
Interested to see Elias, haven't seen him pitch before.
|
|
|
Post by tjb21 on Jun 17, 2016 9:52:51 GMT -5
Switchability is a great skill for players, Crowder has that.
True Shooting Percentage: Jae 56.5% Avery 53.8
Good call jmei. Crowder does possess more off the dribble game than Bradley and he's attacked closeouts to score a lot more this year. Bradley also isn't as good of a passer and turns it over more. Crowder almost had 2x the win shares this year too.
I'm not sure how much projection either guy has but IF (big) Jae can make even 36% of his 3s next season, it would be a major improvement to the roster.
|
|
|
Post by tjb21 on Jun 17, 2016 8:31:11 GMT -5
That's at least two players the Sox offered in the 3rd round before taking Anderson Nice observation, and both of those players (I believe Belge and Fitzgerald) were part of that run of ranked HS players drafted in the late rounds. My guess is they probably made calls to that entire grouping looking for someone to settle for late 3rd round money. Agree. Standard operating procedure.
|
|
|
Post by tjb21 on Jun 16, 2016 14:07:33 GMT -5
Crowder can guard more positions than Bradley, but cannot shoot nearly as well. 33% on 5 attempts to game is bad for Jae. 36% on 5.4 attempts per game for Bradley is about average.
Still would rather have Crowder of the two but I think people tend to overlook his poor shooting when evaluating him.
I wonder when IT and Bradley will be more valuable as trade pieces than players. We are likely coming up to that point soon with AB, if we're not already there already.
jmei, I agree with you on Bradley's defensive prowess being a bit overrated. Great on ball, meh off ball.
|
|
|
Post by tjb21 on Jun 16, 2016 13:57:42 GMT -5
The kid says he doesn't care about money, so we should sign him for 10k.
Come on. I'm not going to bash the kid for whatever he signs for, because he earned whatever the market pays him. Good for Jay and good for Boston.
|
|
|
Post by tjb21 on Jun 16, 2016 9:03:41 GMT -5
This draft has a lot of depth to it, but not much franchise changing talent -- which actually hurts Boston because teams don't feel the need to really move up the board since there isn't a substantial leap in talent (outside the top 2).
@dangercart tweeted out a draft pick "value" chart, which valued the combination of #16 + #23 picks as equal value as the #10 pick, which makes sense. But he argues #16 + #23 picks in this year's draft would have equal value as the #7 pick.
Valentine supposedly has some knee issues that could really knock him down the draft board. Ulis has a fairly significant injury concern too. Bummer for both of them.
|
|
|
Post by tjb21 on Jun 13, 2016 12:58:32 GMT -5
Bender should be the pick. Not sure any prospect behind him is close. I'm not sure what Danny is doing but his draft history isn't stellar. His trade history though...
I wouldn't take Murray in the top 10. He is essentially a stronger Juan Carlos Navarro. Brown isn't worth taking in the top 7. He has so many flaws in his game right now.
There are very few guys who would be net positive players from opening night in this draft. Both Simmmons and Valentine (and even he would need an elite wing next to him -- Paul George/Jimmy Butler) would help teams win right away.
My ideal reasistic 1st round draft: - Bender - one of Luwawu/Valentine/Baldwin - Onuaku -- I think he's severely underrated, I'd take him top 10.
Will probably be 2-4 draft and stash players, some jostling around with 2nd round picks, etc.
A few good follows for those of you who are interested in NBA talk (none of them are me FYI). @donyatesnba @colezwicker @pesquerj
|
|