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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 29, 2024 16:26:00 GMT -5
I wonder how our pitching staff will hold up without our ERA leader.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 28, 2024 20:51:25 GMT -5
Houck deserved the win but we'll take it. Great game to watch.
I'm curious why they position Dalbec so far off the bag.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 27, 2024 18:02:12 GMT -5
Just luck. Compare the team BABIPs.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 27, 2024 17:02:29 GMT -5
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 27, 2024 14:19:03 GMT -5
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 26, 2024 20:56:07 GMT -5
I mean again I hope he proves me wrong but you could see this coming from a mile away based on his 2023 BABIP Cause and effect. His BABIP is declining because he hasn't been hitting line drives.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 26, 2024 20:52:38 GMT -5
Bright spot, Kelly's strikes pretty much hit the target every time. He had pinpoint control tonight.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 26, 2024 15:04:02 GMT -5
Crawford/Imanaga should be an excellent duel. That of course means somebody's scoring a bunch of runs.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 26, 2024 7:07:38 GMT -5
Trivia for the day: Who is the longest tenured minor leaguer in the Red Sox organization? By this I mean time in this org, not total time in the minors. You will not get this without looking. If you do look, don't spoil it. Lugo or Marrero would be my guesses.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 25, 2024 7:33:41 GMT -5
On thing that occurred to me while watching the game, Cleveland's left handed hitters all try to poke the ball to the opposite field when they have 2 strikes and there's a right hander on the mound. Pretty much every damn time..
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 25, 2024 7:13:46 GMT -5
True that but we're also tallook at his history more closely and you will see a hitter tht takes a while to adjust then all of a sudden, solid contct happens. I remember last year at Portlans his k/BB rates sucked as well as his contact numbers then somewhere in early May, the K/BB numbers remained about the same but the king about SSS to start a career and projecting it to his future. Yes, but the issues being identified are exactly what people have been talking about for years, so there's more credibility behind the observations. Conversely, the defensive data (16th percentile OAA) doesn't align with history, so that certainly feels like a SSS. But to his credit, he's overcome adversity at every level along the way. True but if you look at his history, he's a slow adjust to new levels. Last year at Portland his K/BB rates sucked as well as his contact numbers then all of a sudden in early May, his K/BB numbers remained about the same but line drives started happening and his OPS took a giant leap forward. Once he's adjusted, the quality of his contact also adjust.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 24, 2024 23:22:09 GMT -5
Rafaela has a higher OPS than Hamilton, Valdez, Reyes and Dalbec. He's not close to the biggest offensive black hole. Additionally, when he's at shortstop, that means one more outfield bat is also in the lineup. he does not have a higher OPS than Hamilton, he has a lower OBP and a lower SLG Sorry, my bad, I had Hamilton between Rafaela and Valdez. I was looking at Hamilton's career stats.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 24, 2024 23:19:27 GMT -5
Also, my personal opinion but I've seen enough of Rafaela at shortstop to think he'll be elite there too. I'll give it 30 more games.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 24, 2024 23:16:23 GMT -5
Rafaela has a higher OPS than Hamilton, Valdez, Reyes and Dalbec. He's not close to the biggest offensive black hole. Additionally, when he's at shortstop, that means one more outfield bat is also in the lineup. Fair, but Rafaela is the only one of those 5 projected to be a starter next year (and for the next 5 after that) so in my opinion that causing more scrutiny over his bat in general by folks. True that but we're also talking about SSS to start a career and projecting it to his future.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 24, 2024 23:04:47 GMT -5
Rafaela has a higher OPS than Hamilton, Valdez, Reyes and Dalbec. He's not close to the biggest offensive black hole. Additionally, when he's at shortstop, that means one more outfield bat is also in the lineup.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 24, 2024 23:00:45 GMT -5
To me, the key to Rafaela being one tick better than anyone else is his transfer speed. Transfer speed works anyplace but especially at shortstop. Watch him closely, even on routine plays. He's Pedroia fast in that regard.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 24, 2024 22:41:42 GMT -5
I must be missing something here. You are saying they shouldn't DH Devers after a game when he went 3 for 4 with a walk and homer as the DH? You say he is their most important player, which I can agree with because I think he is their best hitter. So I can't agree that Yoshida is a comparable option. Devers is a better hitter than Yoshida. And if the Red Sox want to DH him on his first game back (just like they did with O'Neil and Grissom at AAA) or even for a couple of games, I am fine with that, especially since Devers is not that good in the field. I am just happy he is back and contributing in a game where they beat Cleveland for a change. Yes. A bad decision that works out is still a bad decision. Healthy Devers is a better hitter than healthy Yoshida, but Devers and Yoshida had near identical production on the year coming into tonight, with Yoshida being especially good lately. The advantage of playing Devers in the field is it lets you get Yoshida's bat in the lineup too instead of Reyes and thereby flips an offensive black hole into a useful offensive player. And of course, if he comes back too early and aggravates his injury, that's the worst case scenario of any of this. With Devers, the shoulder is more worrisome to me than the knee.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 24, 2024 22:22:16 GMT -5
I think you are seeing what you want to see. Last year there were several comments that given reps he's also a gold glove caliber shortstop. He made tons of great plays at shortstop in the minors and his range is such that he'll make better defenders out of the third baseman, second baseman and left fielder because they can all move a step or two away. I honestly think you are trying to justify a horrible take. I may be grumpy this evening, but I'm not making things up. The SP.com writeup on him says pretty much exactly that. "Has shown the potential to be a plus defender all around the diamond, but is best in center field, where projects as plus-plus to elite." Then we interpret differently, potential to be a plus defender all around the diamond doesn't say merely above average to me. Projects best in center field doesn't limit other possibilities but he is plus plus now there. Nobody is arguing that. Hamilton is a below average hitter and defender and always will be. At best he's an emergency up and down guy.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 24, 2024 22:17:27 GMT -5
By the end of the year, Rafaela, not Story or Mayer will be thought of as the shortstop of the future.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 24, 2024 22:07:50 GMT -5
I don't think he was waiting for you to punch that ticket. There were a few bizarre takes on the board about his defense when he'd played two games at the position. That's a play only a handful of shortstops could make, and one of them is out for the year. The argument has never been that he can't play shortstop. The scouting consensus is that he's merely above average at SS, but an elite, borderline 80-tier defensive CF. If the bat comes around no one will question him at SS, but he hasn't shown nearly enough with the bat for above average defense at SS to cut it; he has earned every bit of his -0.6 fWAR thus far, mostly due to his offensive limitations.
Until recently the Sox did not have enough healthy outfielders to obligate a Rafaela move to the infield, so this was actually a talking point. Now with 5 healthy OFs, a threadbare IF, and Yoshida already being benched excessively there's no decision to be made. Even if he's replacement level, he's clearly the best man for the job defensively and the Sox need to get their OF bats in the lineup. I think you are seeing what you want to see. Last year there were several comments that given reps he's also a gold glove caliber shortstop. He made tons of great plays at shortstop in the minors and his range is such that he'll make better defenders out of the third baseman, second baseman and left fielder because they can all move a step or two away. I honestly think you are trying to justify a horrible take.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 24, 2024 21:54:35 GMT -5
I need a nap badly, but the first thing I'm doing when I awake is to look at the degree of fastball reduction for each pitcher. If Crawford and Houck have the least change, that would be telling. Well, this is not reassuring. The number is the % of pitches other than fastballs (4-seamers and sinkers)
Name 2003 2004 Added Whitlock 47.1 77.3 30.2 Pivetta 49.4 67.2 17.8 Bello 43.0 60.3 17.3 Houck 60.5 71.0 10.5 Winckowski 57.6 67.5 9.9 Crawford 60.8 70.6 9.8
This actually reinforces the stamina take since the two least and single most changed (Houck, Crawford & Whitlock) all worked on stamina this past off season.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 24, 2024 21:45:32 GMT -5
Well that was insane. Starting to think Rafaela might be able to handle the infield after all. I don't think he was waiting for you to punch that ticket. There were a few bizarre takes on the board about his defense when he'd played two games at the position. That's a play only a handful of shortstops could make, and one of them is out for the year. Takes on Rafaela's defense are a wee bit bizarre.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 24, 2024 20:30:06 GMT -5
To break it down for the stat guys.....
Sox pitchers did well because they threw strikes.
Guardian pitchers got hit hard because they threw strikes.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 24, 2024 20:09:55 GMT -5
Let's be honest here, we all know deep down that Bailey bought a bag of Tampa magic dust. It's the only plausible explanation.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 24, 2024 20:07:12 GMT -5
A reminder that Cleveland’s starter tomorrow, Triston McKenzie, has a 5 ERA and is pitching with a torn ligament in his elbow. Which means that’ll he’ll throw a 7 innings 2 hits shoutout lol Yeah, like the Criswell/Carrasco matchup.
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