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Post by jodyreidnichols on Oct 5, 2022 21:26:13 GMT -5
I think it depends. If there's a lack of information, pedigree weighs heavier. You even see that here with SP. Additionally, I wonder if we're spoiled by how comparatively dynamic the rankings are on SP. It must be a lot of work to create, maintain and update industry wide lists. Also, they're only showing their top 100 ranking. Our players could be "moving up their boards", but not cracking their top 100. I'm sure every system has their version of Rafaela - maybe those national evaluators prefer someone else's popup over ours. Every system has flaws as it's the very nature of trying to create a good system, it cannot capture the outliers and there is always ouliers. A good system fairly accurately predicts more typical situations. If anyone came up with a system without flaws they'd be hired by the best professional teams making boatloads of money. Most of the fantasy baseball ones are terrible. To many chiefs running in different different directions, if you paid enough attention you'd see contradictions in many of them. That drove me to create my own and it's a good lesson to try an earnest one to get a better understanding of it. Once you create a good systemm you learn to trust the process. I think the rankings here are pretty solid and the guys deserve alot of credit for putting it together.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Sept 28, 2022 22:51:15 GMT -5
Going to compare Casas to a likely hall of fame. I don't think he will become this player or anything, but they did have similar approaches in the minors. HOF player, age 23 in AAA: 580 PA 22 HRs 21 doubles 2 triples .183 ISO .332 BABIP .294 AVG .381 OBP .478 SLG% 136 wRC+ 12.1 BB% 19.0 K% Casas, age 22 in AAA: 300 PA 10 HRs(19 HR pace over 580 PA) 20 doubles(38 pace) 1 triple .210 ISO .322 BABIP .270 AVG .383 OBP .480 SLG% 127 wRC+ 15.3 BB% 21.7 K% Again, not counting on Casas becoming a player of that caliber, but players can absolutely add power in the majors. I don't see a problem with him continuing to focus on his approach rather than trying to hit HRs and get into bad habits. Even if he only tops out at 25ish HRs, if he's doing that along with 35-40 doubles and can keep the BB and K rates, that's still a hell of a player. Votto at 23 also had 89 PA in mlb in which he hit 321 .360 .548 .907. What do 89 PA tell you. Is it a hot streak? 89 PA is SSS. Cassas is at 70 PA .179/.343/.446 /.789 117 OPS+ and plays good D. To early to infer anything at the MLB level. His MilB record indicates he deserves a real shot and likely at least a few hundred AB next year before making any rash decisions. Don't forget he missed alot of time this year with injuries. He was the Dalbec back-up plan but plan B failed due to the injuries.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Sept 22, 2022 21:35:56 GMT -5
Heard from someone in the know that had an affair with the CFO’s wife, was warned to stop, but didn’t. Knew it had to be a bit deeper than what was released. Really dumb of Udoka though Makes you wonder why the Celts leaked out the info?
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Sept 12, 2022 18:05:48 GMT -5
I hate to be the bearer of bad news but all these little things that “if only they don’t happen” we could have won are the things that make a bad football team. People upset about the non-PI call are conveniently ignoring what the real issue was and that’s the terrible throw by Mac. How can you dismiss a hold that occured for 15 yards and prevented the WR from competing for the ball when it was up in the air. When you win bad throws happen too. The teams by nearly every measureably grade were even. Hell we had more yards on less carries than Miami. Turnovers decide most games in the NFL including this one.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Sept 12, 2022 18:01:49 GMT -5
Offense is problematic and defense is pretty good I thought they looked awful on both sides of the ball. Defense gave up 13 points. Looking at the stats, yes I watched the game, shows it was a much closer game that many realize. Across the board the numbers if shown before hand many would have picked the Pats AND if the first interception was called right we would have kept the ball deep in their territory with a first down. How the ref could not call that, he held him for 15 yards and did not allow him to compete for the football when it was up from grabs one on one. That would have the game totally open for who would have actually won it. Just stating the obvious. Defense did look good and the offense very inconsistent but it had it's moments too. Especially running the ball early. The offense needs to be ahead on the board to be effective, I don't see the passing game being anywhere where it needs to be yet.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Sept 2, 2022 21:16:14 GMT -5
It is a big one. You have to watch it and note the timing of the new huge TV contract. No-one should be allowed in a discussion regarding fixed games without having watched it and once you do you can't deny it's proven it was rampant. A game Donaghy was not involved in was a game 6 semifinals with the Kings and Lakers which many say it was the worst officiated game in the history of the league including several coaches of the NBA including Pat Riley and Doc Rivers, a game gifted to the Lakers otherwise they'd have knocked out of the playoffs. They went on to win a championship. Jodyreid...honestly I can't buy into this. I'd like to think that not a great % of the world is corrupt or corruptible. Sure there are instances, given human frailties, of craven behavior....but I don't want to believe that NBA refs generally are susceptible. And doesn't the NBA monitor ref actions to discern if there is influenced based bias? To be honest, I am incredibly tired of conspiracy theories. I don't want to believe in or live in a world as you may describe. Pollyanna, naive maybe....but I don't wish it to be true, but neither my beliefs nor yours has any effect on what transpired. Man is not affected by what he sees but rather his view toward them. I understand your view (it's akin to the red pill verse blue pill in the Matrix) but do you not realize turning a blind eye towards corruptions actually contributes to the corruption? Conspiracies happen, never mind theories, far more often than most realize for every one caught like any crime many more get away with it. We forgot yesterday's news and the many conspiraces that happened the next day we get up. Several books such as the Creature from Jekyl Island, New Confessions of an Economic Hitman, the People History of the US, Hate Inc, War is a Racket (yet to read it but it was written by the most decorated soldier of all time up to the release of the book, Manufacturing Consent (still listening to this one), will certainly turn you on to how wide spread corruption is. There was even a Netflix documentary which showed one of the largest banks in the world was laundering money for a Mexican Cartel and was caught and the DA of the US tried so hard not to persecute them but it had gathered enough attention they were forced to but they fined them such an obscenely low amount as to be like a parking ticket to you or I. How deep do some of these have to get until you realize the whole thing is but a house of cards.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Sept 1, 2022 18:43:07 GMT -5
When I read the above, I thought it was a "whopper"... It is a big one. You have to watch it and note the timing of the new huge TV contract. No-one should be allowed in a discussion regarding fixed games without having watched it and once you do you can't deny it's proven it was rampant. A game Donaghy was not involved in was a game 6 semifinals with the Kings and Lakers which many say it was the worst officiated game in the history of the league including several coaches of the NBA including Pat Riley and Doc Rivers, a game gifted to the Lakers otherwise they'd have knocked out of the playoffs. They went on to win a championsip.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Aug 31, 2022 21:55:14 GMT -5
For the record the Celtics should still be the Franchise with the most NBA Championships, watch NetFlix Operation Flagrant Foul and make a case that this is wrong. For all those who don't think NBA games have been fixed this "documentary" all but nixes your want-to-believe beliefs that the world is pure and true. The "crazy" conspiracist have been proven right yet again. Sure there are some stupid conspiracy theories that are fabricated but far more than not are true. Recently it has come to light the FBI buried the story regarding Biden's sons laptops etc. Before you think I'm for one party or the other I'm not I think both sides are morally bankrupt and evil. Don't believe me, research yourself even mainstream media has been forced to come clean and their is enough evidence now floating out there that I challenge any that dispute any claims made here to prove it to yourself. Those with views that oppose others can never prove to you their right, your mind is made up already and the vast majority of people are not capable of being beyond that. Do some basic research first before disputing want you don't want to believe. Truth is I don't want' to believe it either but reality conflicts it to the point you have to revise what you believe. Edit: 52 other refs documented with making illegal bets. FACT! NBA had this whole thing covered up. Why does anyone trust entities with the power to make more money without checks and balances in place to do the right thing?, how niave do you have to be? What's worse is when these niave people shame others for uncovering these inconvienant truths as crazy conspiricist. Where do these people get the gall to do this, where is their shame??
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Aug 6, 2022 5:10:27 GMT -5
Anyone know what has kept Yorke out for the last few games? Toe? Back(knee)? Toe-Knee Arm-Ass
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Aug 2, 2022 20:23:27 GMT -5
Never been more fooled than by Checcini. If anyone remembers me, I wasn't. His power cratered and I knew his walk rate wouldn't hold up without the power. That was in A+ I think. I had to refresh my memory. His power didn't crater until AA but that was still above .400 SLG% AND he was 2.5 years younger than the average of the league AND it was in only 66 games so that should not have been a true sign of catering. also his OBP was .420. A year later he even made it to the majors and even had solid success albeit in only 36 PA. 258/361/452.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Aug 1, 2022 20:53:49 GMT -5
So we traded for Pee Wee Herman??
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Aug 1, 2022 20:48:19 GMT -5
I find this very disingenuous. I'd like to think you could easily figure out that 10$ is a simple typo for 10% considering the rest of the sentence and that % AND $ are a key apart of the keyboard but you would rather utilize any chance you get to attempt to belittle. Be better than that and answer the question, If someone is 90% right because you can knit pick 10% doesn't change their point. I thought you were told to stop this non-sense already??I do not think Jimmy Butler is better than Kevin Durant. And I do not think the statement that Jimmy Butler is better than Kevin Durant is 90% right, or even half right. Does that make sense to you? By your own assessment would that not have beem the 10% part of his point, a clear tangent to make his point. Wether or not you disagree with that small supporting point is irrelvent to the bigger point.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Jul 31, 2022 17:15:39 GMT -5
So by your own measure if someone if 90% right there wrong for being 10$ wrong. Please clarify your own assessment here. Please clarify your question. Or logic problem. Or whatever is happening here. I find this very disingenuous. I'd like to think you could easily figure out that 10$ is a simple typo for 10% considering the rest of the sentence and that % AND $ are a key apart of the keyboard but you would rather utilize any chance you get to attempt to belittle. Be better than that and answer the question, If someone is 90% right because you can knit pick 10% doesn't change their point. I thought you were told to stop this non-sense already??
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Jul 27, 2022 22:46:04 GMT -5
Except the Nets didn't make it out of the second round, that's not carried a bad team to cusp of finals. That's the team that looked great round one fell apart when they had injuries. If you're talking about increasing playoffs odds you can't overlook the massive drop from a year ago to this year. This year with no Harden had him playing like Ime would and it wasn't good. He wasn't even able to get his team a single win playing with Irving. A year ago against that super team with no Brown and crap Tatum got us one win. Great player, he's just not like LeBron or other greats that can do it all. I'd take Jimmy Butler over Durant any day of the week, he can do it all. You seem to be praising Durant playoff records and I'm the opposite. “You said you would take Jimmy Butler over Kevin Durant. And for that reason, I’m out.” So by your own measure if someone if 90% right there wrong for being 10$ wrong. Please clarify your own assessment here.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Jul 27, 2022 22:43:33 GMT -5
Smart Brogdon Tatum KD Timelord Fast PP, Gallo and Horford off the bench. Goddamn. Where do you get that line-up, based on what rumor. If you are going to fabricate something base it on anything based on reality, even rumors as long as you note that, otherwise you are pontificating about pontificating, so what's the use?
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Jul 27, 2022 20:00:41 GMT -5
Kevin Durant averaged 30/7/6 on 38/52/91 shooting, averaging 37.2 (!) minutes per game over 55 games last year. He was voted second team all-pro last year and as recently as a year ago carried a bad team to the cusp of the finals while averaging 34/9/4 on 51/40/87 shooting and 40 minutes per game in the playoffs. He’s one of the top 15 or so players of all time (per recent ESPN and Athletic rankings, among others) who projects to be one of the top 10 players in the league next year (and pushing top 5). There is injury risk, but while on the court, he is a clear tier or two above Brown, and the Celtics can give him far more rest than Brooklyn did. In a sport where you need stars to win, as long as he’s healthy in the playoffs, he increases their title odds in the near future by a significant amount. None of the above should be in dispute. Just a question of how much future value you’re willing to give up for present value and how much you weigh the importance of keeping hometown guys. I’d rather take the higher near-term title odds myself. I believe you are looking back to much and not forward enough. You acknowledge the injury risk (age decline?) but don't appear to commit to whether or not you'd go through with trading Brown (and more including another starter and additionally pieces and additional picks). I'd return the call if I was Stevens with, "Okay what's you actual offer" and say get back to me and leave it at that. IMHO I'd say an even swap is a likely upgrade for this year but no where near the margin you see and I think the risk beyond next season are so much so that I think there is no upgrade after that. In the end, at least two years with Brown is worth more than the slight upgrade an even swap would be (never-mind the added payroll and all if it's ramifications). Never mind that they want a starter, a rotation piece and multiple picks. Danny did a great job turning old assets into making the Celtics one of the best teams in the league again with assist from Stevens (I'm not attempting to go down that rabbit hole here) why would we do undo the great situation the team is in now for at least two years??? AND we improved alot from last years team by at worst adding two good rotation pieces without giving up any rotation/starters and perhaps gave us the ability to trade one of the guards (loaded with depth) for the teams most ovbious weakness in bigs with an aging Horford and RW3 who we all know comes with his own injury risk. If this team makes any more moves I'd prefer it to be a solid back-up center or a 4/5 combo back-up. I would not be surprised if the team rolls the dice and trades one of our ball handlers during the season for a back-up center.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Jul 27, 2022 19:33:46 GMT -5
With his history, age, injury and games played the past two years along with how he looked in last years playoffs I'm not sure he increases our actual chances even if it was a straight up trade for Brown. To much risk. Even if Brown leaves in two years, pure speculation at this time, it's worth rolling with those that got us to the dance. I’m firmly in the do not trade for KD camp for all the reasons mentioned above, but a straight up Jaylen-for-KD swap absolutely improves their chances. All of their offensive issues would go away, and they wouldn’t lose much defensively. By how much and for how long? Not worth it. Two years of an improving core who we know works well together will never be worth trading for a once great player who has had a major injury after 30 came back and looked very good BUT only when he's played about half the games the past 3 years for a player who at worst is the second best player on your team, AND the other team wants more than Brown too. This is worth discussing for about 2 minutes but inevitably you all should arrive at the same conclusion.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Jul 26, 2022 21:56:07 GMT -5
Trading for Durant shortens the window quite a bit. With his history, age, injury and games played the past two years along with how he looked in last years playoffs I'm not sure he increases our actual chances even if it was a straight up trade for Brown. To much risk. Even if Brown leaves in two years, pure speculation at this time, it's worth rolling with those that got us to the dance.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Jul 20, 2022 19:59:59 GMT -5
So many SS I guess if you load up on a position that’s the one to do it with Well if I had to choose only one, it'd be pitcher but yeah I know what you mean. Especially for HS guys who sometimes end up there by default as the most athletic guys on their team. To your point, I believe Theo Epstein focused on SS too. I don't get how baseball fans don't get drafting multiple HS SS does not mean you are drafting redundant positional players. How does one not understand that precious few drafted as SS end up as SS? Because of the athleticism if they have the bat than they can learn to play another position if needed such as third, second or even OF albeit the skill set does not always translate to the OF as easily as the infield. Drafting wise it makes alot of sense.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Jul 17, 2022 21:09:20 GMT -5
I try not to get upset over MLB draft due to it being such a crapshoot, and it working out sometimes like Yorke, but god damn does Chaim make me hate him more everyday I always wait til guys get to AA, AAA before putting much stock in projections and rankings. Even then, they can fool us (Garin Checcini, Lars Anderson, Ryan Kalish, Ryan Lavarnway, et al). Never been more fooled than by Checcini.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Jul 3, 2022 9:09:42 GMT -5
Don't know if it's already been said, but the Celtics have until July 18th to use their trade exception (TPE). So clock's ticking on another move. I expect the Celtics to use it by the end of next week. I'd actually be surprised if they just used it outright. Willingness to go into the Tax is one thing but using the biggest TPE could put then some 37M into the tax. Brogdon is likely the TPE level addition (just didn't use the TPE to get him) Now if Brad has something else up his sleeve (moving a player that might now be somewhat redundant), then I could see it. Otherwise, we're probably looking at vet minimum deals. I don't see Pritchard getting many minutes this season unless their is injuries, he's fourth (?) on the depth chart. What could he and the TPE bring back to the team??
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Jul 3, 2022 9:07:29 GMT -5
I’ve looked into what pacers fans think about his defense. He tends to have problems with athletic guards but is actually pretty good when he gets switched onto wings. I wouldn’t look at him as a total liability on that end but he isn’t really a great athlete and that limits how his defense plays at this level edit: looks like philarhody got there before me lol They’ll absolutely be able to play him late in games imo, you just need a good guard defender with him to take the other teams more athletic guard. Fortunately they have Smart and White for that. Gallinari obviously isn’t a good defender, he’ll probably get cooked by athletic wings but can probably hold up ok against 4’s and small ball 5’s Offensively the team took some major steps, and I think that our biggest issue was a consistent scoring threat outside of the big 2. We now got a couple people who can fill it up a bit off the bench Is he better than Kanter? as Kanter only really was in the rotation for a short period of time due mainly to his D as his offense was fine.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Jul 1, 2022 15:39:32 GMT -5
Not a big Gallo fan. Feels like a lot of overlap with Grant Williams and can’t really play him as a wing at this point in his career. They really need a true wing but not many of those left. Maybe DiVincenzo? Kessler Edwards and the Martin twins are RFAs. Grant was a lot of fun this year, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he went back to being a pumpkin. Let him prove he can consistently be a shooter before expecting him to be. Gallo is a tried and true shooter, which we lack outside of Pritchard, who is extremely matchup depend on his own right. I think Gallo will balance well with White. If the opponent is hiding one player on offense, let Gallo come in and guard him and get his shots up. If the opponent is going with an offensive lineup (5 weapons), go with the plus defense lineup. Kind of like a platoon for the NBA. Imperfect for sure, but Gallo gives us something we didn’t have enough of. We know the retained personnel can D up against everyone besides GSW, but then again they have the most beautiful offense of all time. The TPE will be an interesting call. If I was Brad, I would keep my eyes on a younger player. Durant could end up really changing the outlook of next year, so sustainability/continuity is definitely key. I think our Defense did a good job against GSW. Our offense failed.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Jun 17, 2022 18:33:07 GMT -5
Umass you touched upon an interesting idea regarding point guard and possible improvements going forward. How would you improve the team for next year? Who are the more tradeable pieces? I'm thinking Smart would be one of our more tradeable pieces. Theis is a contract they might want to move I know a player they were interested in the past (who I heard might be available) is Lonzo Ball whose defense while not as good as Smart is still good, he's a better passer and shooter having turned himself into a very good 3-point shooter too better in fact than Curry this past season both in volume and percentage. He makes slightly more than Marcus so the contracts swap would work well. I think he'd be a fantastic fit with our team, he'd manage the ball better (see fewer turnovers), create easier shots with his fantastic passing and creativity and help spread the floor with his 3-point shooting. He'd compliment the Jays and make them better players by creating easier shots for them. As much as I like Marcus I think you'd be trading him while his value is high perhaps even inflated after winning DPOy. He's also 2 inches taller than Smart at 6-6. His contract has 3 more years at $20m/YR and he'd turn 27 at the end of the 2025 season when he current contract expires. Another name I've heard is Malcom Brogdon and seeing he also is a guard, I'd have imagined it also would be centered around Smart.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Jun 16, 2022 22:57:58 GMT -5
Bird was a rookie at 24, Tatum was 24 this year. Not enough people have true perspectives on reality and love to talk in ultimatums. If you think this team can't win you have no perspective at all. I make the point that many teams that lose finals Can be brought back and actually win the next year if ONLY given the opportunity. GS window closed this year. If you make it to the finals and lose one year and win the next, how would you define that? how would you have defined that after losing the first year? The Celtics window opened this year. Only Milwaukee should be able to stop them next year from making the Finals again, that and health. The West is wide open next year.
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