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Post by jmei on Jan 14, 2023 17:43:07 GMT -5
They have definitely had some bad drafts lately, but, over a larger sample size, the idea that Belichick is terrible at the draft is laughable and frankly credibility destroying.
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Post by jmei on Jan 14, 2023 10:40:13 GMT -5
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Post by jmei on Jan 13, 2023 22:03:52 GMT -5
It’s Boston. Of course the tall gangly white guy is going to be a big hit. The short white guy, too.
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Post by jmei on Jan 12, 2023 21:35:19 GMT -5
Tatum looks exhausted and frustrated by O’Neal and is a little too iso heavy, but fortunately the rest of the team is picking him up.
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Post by jmei on Jan 12, 2023 20:50:52 GMT -5
Getting killed on the fast break, even on made baskets. You can tell they have tired legs.
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Post by jmei on Jan 12, 2023 20:35:06 GMT -5
This is the kind of game where they could use Brown’s ability to create his own shot and defense.
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Post by jmei on Jan 12, 2023 14:34:11 GMT -5
Without checking there’s probably like a couple dozen minor league FA starters who project to be about as good in MLB as Seabold available, no? He’s been bad since his injury. Seabold is projected for a 4.53 FIP by Steamer. Some familiar names projected in that neighborhood by Steamer are Nick Pivetta (4.44), Taijuan Walker (4.50), Michael Kopech (4.54), and Cal Quantrill (4.56). That's probably a little optimistic on Seabold, but even if you adjust it down a little, there aren't a ton of guys of that quality available for the major league minimum, and having an option matters a lot too.
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Post by jmei on Jan 12, 2023 14:05:20 GMT -5
You're going to have to manage Paxton's innings regardless (he hasn't thrown more than 25 innings since 2019) so I think the odds of him leaving spring training as a traditional "pitch 5+ innings every fifth day" starter are low. Feels like either an opener-type (throw ~3 IP every fifth day) or a bulk/piggyback reliever.
Pivetta is their best bet for bulk innings in their rotation. I think he's a traditional starter all the way.
This is all probably moot. The odds of none of their starting pitchers being fully ramped up by the end of spring training are very low.
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Post by jmei on Jan 12, 2023 13:53:43 GMT -5
Not that I think Seabold is some amazing prospect, but he's useful rotation depth with an option left. Not sure why you'd DFA him over Kaleb Ort (or Kelly or Mills or Brasier). I suppose the logic is they have other, better rotation depth on the 40-man (Wink, Mata, etc.), but that's true of bullpen arms as well. I dunno, I'm pretty down on the 40-man management this offseason. Eh, Seabold is (er, was) the #9 starter, with 3 more guys in AAA that are probably each a favorite to pass him this year
5.13 xFIP in AAA '21, 4.30 in AAA '22, with 6 very bad major league starts sprinkled in. 26 years old. Stuff's not great and he's missed a lot of time over the years. Like Downs, I think he's fallen to the point where you can replace him with a minor league free agent without breaking a sweat.
Fair enough, but back-end starters with options are useful, especially since all four of the guys in AAA who are ahead of him (Wink, Mata, Walter, Murphy) are potential bullpen guys as soon as this year.
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Post by jmei on Jan 12, 2023 13:45:16 GMT -5
It's also a reflection of the guys that they kept. Ort throws hard but turns 31 in February and doesn't throw enough strikes. Kelly is a fringy middle reliever at best. Mills is a reclamation project. I could be wrong and one or more of those guys could flash something. But I'd have had Seabold ahead of all three of them.
ADD: not a perfect comparison, but Seabold is currently ranked 22nd in the SoxProspects.com rankings. Ort topped out at 41, Kelly is ranked 25 and Mills is not ranked but don't think he would have beaten out Seabold. If I had asked the forum a week ago who the next DFA is, Seabold wouldn't have been the poll winner. Doesn't mean we're right and the front office is wrong, but I think it's obvious why I and others don't like it.
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Post by jmei on Jan 12, 2023 12:21:36 GMT -5
Not that I think Seabold is some amazing prospect, but he's useful rotation depth with an option left. Not sure why you'd DFA him over Kaleb Ort (or Kelly or Mills or Brasier). I suppose the logic is they have other, better rotation depth on the 40-man (Wink, Mata, etc.), but that's true of bullpen arms as well. I dunno, I'm pretty down on the 40-man management this offseason.
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Post by jmei on Jan 11, 2023 16:22:35 GMT -5
I actually do think Paxton starts the year off as a reliever (and might stay in that role all season). I doubt Bloom is a guy who worries much about sunk costs and so if that 26-man spot is better spent on superior righty relievers without options (e.g., Brasier) or bench position players, J. Rodriguez might get cut before opening day.
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Post by jmei on Jan 11, 2023 16:16:41 GMT -5
Eh, I guess I'm higher on Jeter Downs than most. I don't think 24-year-old competent defensive shortstops with some offensive upside grow on trees.
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Post by jmei on Jan 11, 2023 14:51:35 GMT -5
They've already made a number of decisions, though--like the decision to DFA Downs but keep (say) Ort. That looks like a bad decision in hindsight and they deserve some small amount of criticism for it. If Downs wasn't worth keeping as cheap infield depth before Story got hurt, he wouldn't be any more worth having now. And in any case, was that a bad decision (as opposed to bad luck) if they did that at a time when they expected Story to be healthy?
Didn't you say yourself recently that Downs and Hoy Park are totally fungible replacement-level types (if that) whom they could easily replace with other guys in the spring? Maybe that was someone else...
I think Downs was worth keeping as cheap infield depth before Story was hurt and is even more worth having now. It was a bad decision then and is a worse decision now (with the power of hindsight). Part of what front offices are asked to do is to predict the future and they didn't do such a good job of it. I do think they can pick someone off waivers who can roughly approximate that production, but (1) they still need to actually do it and (2) would be nice to have more than one of those guys.
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Post by jmei on Jan 11, 2023 14:41:39 GMT -5
For the record, I think it's pretty bad decision-making to have a bunch of fungible low-leverage relief pitchers on the 40-man roster (Mills, J. Rodriguez, Ort, German, Brasier, etc.) and not more SS/2B depth. But let's see how it looks when the games start. Why on earth is the shape of the roster on January 11th a question of "decision-making" at all? They're in the middle of the process of roster-building, and just had things shaken up yesterday in a way they haven't even had time to respond to. The time to judge their decisions is after they've made them.
They've already made a number of decisions, though--like the decision to DFA Downs but keep (say) Ort. That looks like a bad decision in hindsight and they deserve some small amount of criticism for it.
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Post by jmei on Jan 11, 2023 13:15:43 GMT -5
That's the thing about Yoshida. He obviously comes with a lot of downside risk, but he also comes with a much higher ceiling than most signings in this size range. Not a lot of sub-$20M AAV guys who have the potential to be one of the 20 best hitters in MLB.
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Post by jmei on Jan 11, 2023 9:42:49 GMT -5
Folks, again, I’m not sure what the Chris Sale extension has to do with Story’s injury. Let’s stay on topic here.
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Post by jmei on Jan 10, 2023 21:19:27 GMT -5
For the record, I think it's pretty bad decision-making to have a bunch of fungible low-leverage relief pitchers on the 40-man roster (Mills, J. Rodriguez, Ort, German, Brasier, etc.) and not more SS/2B depth. But let's see how it looks when the games start.
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Post by jmei on Jan 10, 2023 21:14:16 GMT -5
One thing about Bloom is that he is a lot more risk tolerant than a lot of his detractors (the "he's afraid to sign a big name player" crowd) think, it just happens that he is comfortable with different types of risk. He has shown comfort with injury risk (see guys like Story and Paxton), performance risk (see guys like Bradley and the various other buy-low acquisitions) and positional fit risk (even if a guy doesn't fit the roster well, if he comes cheap enough, acquire him (see guys like Schwarber or Story), and even if a position on the depth chart is thin, don't acquire someone out of desperation (see not filling RF last year or MIF this year)). He would seemingly rather sign a risky player for cheap than pay a more reliable player more than what the models suggest he is owed. Similarly, he would seemingly rather wait the market out and see if he can pick up a guy for cheap than move more quickly for fear of losing the game of musical chairs. If I were to describe Bloom in one word, it would be "disciplined." That is not a value judgment (it has obviously worked out sometimes and not worked out other times), but a commentary on style. And it suggests that we may be waiting a while (perhaps into spring training) before the MIF holes get filled.
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Post by jmei on Jan 10, 2023 15:40:16 GMT -5
Let's move on from the front office trolling. There's a whole separate thread if you want to criticize the front office.
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Post by jmei on Jan 10, 2023 15:39:32 GMT -5
I honestly forgot about Montgomery--good call on him.
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Post by jmei on Jan 10, 2023 15:31:18 GMT -5
This certainly makes a LHH MI to platoon with Arroyo more important, add on top of that the need to add a guy like Andrus or Iglesias. Hindsight is 20/20 but designating Downs for assignment with the complete lack of MI depth looks even worse now. Not saying I expect anything from Downs but he'd still be a better option than anyone they currently have to take some of the PT in the middle infield, same goes for Hoy Park. Here's the thing about guys like Downs and Park though, there are almost certainly going to be players of a similar quality available on waivers between now and the end of spring training. They are the poster children for replacement level.
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Post by jmei on Jan 10, 2023 15:26:52 GMT -5
One other sneaky offseason need is a third down running back. Stevenson played that role but wasn't great (missed blitz pickups, lots of dropped check-downs) and it added to the physical burden on him. Jerick McKinnon would be a good candidate. Old friend Rex Burkhead is an UFA but is 33 next year and looks to have been pretty mediocre recently, but someone in that mold. Harris unfortunately is not that guy.
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Post by jmei on Jan 10, 2023 15:04:50 GMT -5
I don't think this team is a Super Bowl contender with Brady (the cap space you spend on him would trade off with improving the OTs, WRs/TEs, CBs, etc.). If that's the case, I don't know that he's worth pursuing.
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Post by jmei on Jan 10, 2023 15:02:42 GMT -5
Given that their next best option really is replacement level, this is... not good.
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