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Post by incandenza on May 15, 2024 13:07:22 GMT -5
Obviously being a Sox fan and Yankee hater I'm not going to claim to not be bias but what really is the hype with Jones? 23 YO in AA wRC+ of 99 so far this year, as a 22 year old in A+ 114 wRC+. Not to mention a K% hovering around 30% in his minor league time to boot. That doesn't really scream top prospect to me? He’s tall And to quote the fangraphs write-up: "His 2023 whiff rates were only about one standard deviation worse than what’s typical of a big league center fielder."
When a high-A prospect is whiffing at a rate "only one standard deviation worse" than an average major leaguer at a weak offensive position, well, what more do you need to know - that's a #15 overall prospect right there.
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Post by incandenza on May 15, 2024 9:49:52 GMT -5
This is less a rotation thing than a general pitching thing, but only four pitchers who have thrown a pitch for the Red Sox (including relief ace Pablo Reyes) currently have recorded an ERA over 4.00. Those 4 are: Chase Anderson - used for garbage time only Joe Jacques - DFA'd, and was claimed by Arizona Joely Rodriguez - DFA'd and outrighted to Worcester. Is now hurt Isaiah Campbell - on the injured list In comparison, last year the Sox only had 5 pitchers with more than like 20 innings who had under a 4.00 ERA: Martin, Winckowski, Bernardino, Jansen, Schreiber. Wild. And *as a reliever* Anderson's ERA is 2.12. It's only over 4 because of his one bad spot start.
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Post by incandenza on May 14, 2024 9:58:28 GMT -5
Alex Speier today on Niko Kavadas: Yeah, color me extremely skeptical. If Dom Smith continues to perform poorly (it's been 9 games and 30 plate appearances) or someone gets hurt (Cooper gets hit like every other game), then sure go for it with Niko. But this seems like we're being set up to be excited for a guy's AAA performance only for him to get exposed by big league arms. www.bostonglobe.com/2024/05/14/sports/red-sox-minor-leagues-niko-kavadas/What's he gonna do, have a -12 wRC+? I honestly don't even see anyone with especially high expectations for him at the major league level. I think the general sentiment that if you were ever going to give him a shot, this would be the time, and he's not gonna be worse than Dalbec or Smith. I mean, he could cut his AAA OPS in half and still be an upgrade.
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Post by incandenza on May 14, 2024 9:07:44 GMT -5
And yet Smith has actually been the worse offensive player: a -12 wRC+ to Bobby's 6.
Smith has -1.9 WAR and an 82 wRC+ since 2021. (But only a 19.6% K rate!) I don't really understand why they thought this experiment was worthwhile. A lefty who can't hit righties or lefties doesn't actually give you a platoon advantage...
As to why they thought he was worthwhile I think it was reasonable to get a slightly below replacement backup 1B to Cooper. I think they're playing him way too much, but the thought was fine I guess. Another thing is that he was really hot in September last year, running an >.400 xwOBA, so maybe they thought there was something real there, but I don't know. I'm totally ready to move on though, give Kavadas a chance. Yeah, they gave him a pretty big role is the thing. If they thought they needed to use that roster spot on a pure backup first baseman, okay, I guess. But 3 of his 7 starts have been as a DH, and they've used him twice as a pinch hitter.
He did have an interesting September last year: a .241/.315/.532 line despite a .210 BABIP. But how heavily do you want to weigh that against 1200 PAs going back to the start of 2021? "What's the harm in trying him out for 30 PAs" they might have thought. But the harm has turned out to be -0.5 WAR in that very brief stretch.
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Post by incandenza on May 14, 2024 8:01:03 GMT -5
Dom Smith makes Bobby Dalbec look like Willians Astudillo (career 4.8 K%). What an awful at bat in the 9th. At least Dalbec can bunt and run. Smith has struck out 23% of the time, Dalbec was like 50% lol And yet Smith has actually been the worse offensive player: a -12 wRC+ to Bobby's 6.
Smith has -1.9 WAR and an 82 wRC+ since 2021. (But only a 19.6% K rate!) I don't really understand why they thought this experiment was worthwhile. A lefty who can't hit righties or lefties doesn't actually give you a platoon advantage...
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Post by incandenza on May 14, 2024 6:40:33 GMT -5
The story of the 2024 Red Sox: Triston Casas was off to a good start, with a 133 wRC+, improved defense, and 0.5 WAR in 22 games, on pace for almost 4 WAR.
Then he got hurt. And in 9 games as a LHH 1B replacement, Dom Smith has -0.5 WAR, entirely cancelling out Casas' contribution.
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Post by incandenza on May 13, 2024 18:47:12 GMT -5
pitches are flat. looks they are floating up there. And yet the only hard-hit ball was Lowe's liner, and that had a below 50% hit probability. What does that newfangled "squared up" stat say about that inning? Cuz it looked like a whole bunch of solid line drives to me.
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Post by incandenza on May 13, 2024 18:28:46 GMT -5
There were no runs in with a runner on first and two out. The two-out unravelings have been happening a lot lately.
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Post by incandenza on May 13, 2024 14:09:50 GMT -5
Despite his last two games being his two most productive with the Red Sox so far? I think he'll be okay. At least replacement level. My expectations for Smith are lower than that.
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Post by incandenza on May 13, 2024 13:54:21 GMT -5
I am liking Rafaela in CF, Gonzalez at SS, and one of Cooper/Smith not playing baseball. And that one of Cooper/Smith not playing baseball should be Smith:
Cooper career vs. RHP: 106 wRC+
Smith career vs. RHP: 96 wRC+
And Smith has been more conspicuously in decline for years now. I see zero use for him on this team.
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Post by incandenza on May 13, 2024 13:20:43 GMT -5
They somehow managed having four injured starters for a stretch just fine, but it's incredible not just that every infielder has gotten injured but that their replacements have universally been dreadful.
Rafaela + Valdez + Reyes + Dalbec + Cooper + Smith + Short + Hamilton = -2.9 WAR
Even with the terrible injury luck and the terrible clutch hitting, they would still be like 24-16 right now if they had merely gotten replacement-level play out of their replacements.
For me it's an open question as to whether this means that they have a surprising good team that is poised to get better as some guys return from injury and others (like Grissom and Cooper) acclimate; or whether it just means that they've squandered an incredibly good run with the pitching in the first quarter of the season with the horrible performances from the B team.
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Post by incandenza on May 13, 2024 13:00:11 GMT -5
It ended up being 35 days between Pivetta starts and 23 days between Bello starts. Whitlock is at 26 days and counting.
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Post by incandenza on May 13, 2024 12:47:05 GMT -5
Hey look at that - the Rays are a LAST PLACE TEAM when it comes to pitching metrics.
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Post by incandenza on May 13, 2024 7:50:40 GMT -5
AL East predictions:
Yankees 92-70 Orioles 84-78 Red Sox 81-81 Blue Jays 80-82 Rays 80-82
I don't think this division is as strong as its reputation.
- The Yankees are vulnerable because of how top-heavy they are, but I think people are underappreciating how much they've done to add depth. With Verdugo and Grisham they've got a lot of outfield depth, and young guys help in the infield as well. Their bullpen is always good. And while Cashman has a weird kink for getting rid of SP depth, I think Stroman will be annoyingly good for them. And a team with Judge and Soto can win a lot of games even when the starter is like Luis Gil.
- Orioles were the weakest 101-win team in living memory. They were 16th in starting pitcher WAR and 11th in positional player WAR. Their one real strength was the bullpen, but that is notoriously unreliable, and guess what? Fangraphs depth charts has their 2024 bullpen projected to be third-worst in the majors. They added Kimbrel, for god's sake; that alone will probably cost them 3 or 4 wins. Burnes is obviously a huge addition, and their young talent is ridiculous, but I think they're gonna take a big step back.
- The Red Sox, maddeningly, are in a position to strike with the impressive breadth (if not strength) of their young talent, but just couldn't quite figure out a way to spend all the money in their pockets. Specifically, it just seems almost certain that the lack of pitching depth is going to bite them at some point this season. What'll be interesting, though, is that almost every player on the roster (other than Pivetta, Martin, and Jansen) is potentially part of the team's long-term plans. Almost every at-bat all season long will be a little portent of the future.
- The Blue Jays won 90 games last season. That was with Chapman giving them 3.5 WAR; they replaced him with Kiner-Falefa and a 39-year-old Justin Turner. And it was with Brandon Belt giving them 2.3 WAR; they replaced him with a 79-year-old Joey Votto. And it was with 2.2 WAR and a 104 wRC+ season from Kiermaier, who is going to be 34. And it was with an uncommonly healthy starting rotation; Gausman is already injured. Windows of contention tend to open and to close a year or two before people expect them to. I think this is the year the Jays' window starts to close.
- I dunno, the Rays have to have a down year some time, don't they? Why not in the year when Wander Franco and Tyler Glasnow have both left? That's 8 WAR from last season out the door.
This has aged pretty well so far I'd say. Though the Orioles continue to use magic orbs to be better than they should be. And the Red Sox have taken a different route to roughly .500 than I expected: everything's gone right (massive overperformances almost everywhere!) and everything's gone wrong (horrible run of injuries and terrible clutch hitting!).
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Post by incandenza on May 12, 2024 17:35:03 GMT -5
How do O'Brien and Youk fail to comment on that throwing style by O'Neill? I felt like I was losing my mind that no NESN employee throughout the entire game noticed that that Nats homer to LF was already a homer before it caromed off the pole... O'Brien and Youk extended their streak of not commenting on very obvious stuff happening in the game by not mentioning that the runner who crashed into Cooper's glove and knocked the ball out in the 3rd inning was waaaay off the basepath.
But also why did the Red Sox not challenge that?
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Post by incandenza on May 12, 2024 13:00:59 GMT -5
I may not have the number *exactly* right, but I believe O'Neill has struck out 935 times with one out and a runner on third.
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Post by incandenza on May 12, 2024 11:56:41 GMT -5
moms=pink always feels a little weird to me. Why do they get the same color as baby girls?
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Post by incandenza on May 12, 2024 9:44:48 GMT -5
I'd give Cooper a little run; I don't see why he shouldn't be at least serviceable with the bat, and the glove has looked excellent.
I don't see any reason to be optimistic about Dominic Smith. He hasn't really hit since the covid season. I'd be a lot more interested to see if Kavadas might actually be Schwarber Lite, even if that's a long shot, than sticking with Smith.
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Post by incandenza on May 12, 2024 9:35:08 GMT -5
Did you realize Bogaerts (already moved off SS in his second year in SD) is hitting .209 and has -.3 WAR? Eesh. He'll never play anywhere near the level of that insane contract the Padres offered him, but he will hit. He always has. The season isn't 40 games long. When 162 games are all said and done, assuming health, he'll have contributed with the bat and glove. It just won't be anywhere near to the extent of that ridiculous contract. Every player who "has always hit" reaches a point where they don't anymore. His xwOBA has been trending down since 2021 - perfectly following a typical aging curve - and is at .292 this season.
His wOBA is 48 points worse than his xwOBA and I'm pretty sure that won't keep up, since he always outperforms his xwOBA. But he might be more like an average hitter now than a well above average one.
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Post by incandenza on May 12, 2024 9:17:13 GMT -5
PAs from players with a wRC+ below 30:
Yankees: 6 Rays: 33
Blue Jays: 62 Orioles: 97
Red Sox: 304
Which is how the Red Sox have a team wRC+ of 99 despite having 5 regulars above 130 and two more around 110.
ADD: And this might be a reason to think the poor clutch hitting isn't just bad luck? A couple of the hot hitters get on base, but then it's 2 or 3 guys in a row who are totally hopeless. Then if, say, Tyler O'Neill also happens to be cold in clutch situations as a matter of random variation then the whole offense is pretty much lost.
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Post by incandenza on May 11, 2024 21:48:00 GMT -5
I felt like I was losing my mind that no NESN employee throughout the entire game noticed that that Nats homer to LF was already a homer before it caromed off the pole. And no one here mentioned it. And... am I losing my mind? It bounced above the red stripe...
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Post by incandenza on May 11, 2024 14:55:08 GMT -5
I know that changing hitting coaches is viewed as "rearranging the deck chairs." But I've had enough of Fatse, I think whatever his philosophy is, it's not helping, seems either stale, or it's just not resignating with the players. To me the approach team wide needs to be addressed. Which hitters are failing relative to expectations? I assume you don't mean Duran, Abreu, Devers, Wong, Casas, McGuire, or O'Neill. Is it his failure to get through to Valdez, Reyes, Dalbec, and the like that is the problem?
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Post by incandenza on May 11, 2024 12:01:53 GMT -5
I guess pitchers have dealt with the pitch clock okay? (I wonder if it might counterintuitively be more of a burden for the hitter than the pitcher. Most likely, though, it just has no benefit to either.)
And I guess whatever gains to offense came from banning the shift have been entirely reversed?
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Post by incandenza on May 11, 2024 10:25:44 GMT -5
Jahmai quoted Fatse during the game yesterday as saying that the one metric he takes as the most important for the offense is OPS. Which would be a pretty good answer for 2010 or so, but... I don't know, should he be taken literally? Maybe he was just trying to give an accessible answer.
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Post by incandenza on May 10, 2024 20:45:40 GMT -5
I bet a lot of you are extremely annoyed at the 1-9 RISP and 11 LOB. But personally, I'm extremely annoyed that the Nationals scored all five runs after having the bases empty with 2 outs across three separate innings.
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