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Post by telluricrook on Sept 30, 2016 1:12:16 GMT -5
Wow Asuaje is called up as well.
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Post by telluricrook on Sept 30, 2016 1:06:48 GMT -5
Manuel Margot is off to a nice start so far. Four extra base hits in his last four games. He has a hell of an arm from what I saw.
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Post by telluricrook on Sept 30, 2016 0:41:59 GMT -5
Everyone keeps saying that only the old fans are bothered by the collapse the other night.
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Post by telluricrook on Sept 29, 2016 1:18:34 GMT -5
Ugh, that was awful. Let's focus on the positives here shall we: Buchholz pitched very well and it bodes well for the post-season. Kimbrel sucked, but he's had a very inconsistent year all along, so let's hope this gets his bad game out of the way. The Jays also lost a game where they had a lead in the 9th so at least we're not alone tonight. Kelly got 2 big outs with the bases jacked and no outs, of course the HR happened and it was awful but dude was ice cold otherwise. The fact that the Yankees got the payback for that Hanley game is bad, but we can get a bigger payback and officially eliminate these motherf**kers tomorrow in their house with Hank Owens on the mound for the added insult. And the Red Sox have been streaky all year, so let them get their losing out of their systems before the post-season when the games matter again. Major shoutout to my man John Farrell for becoming the first Red Sox manager since Joe Morgan to win 2 AL East titles. I know a lot of you deeply dislike him and will try to tell me that the team won despite of him, but save it. Dude's awesome and win or lose the team is always in the game and always have a big fight. Very happy to see him beat that awful disease and come back and just deliver. I'm really hoping we get a World Series against the Giants, that would be a terrific way for David to retire, beating the one team with as many WS titles as he has this century. I would love to see the Giants in the World Series because it would mean that the Cubs didnt show up for the second straight year. It would be a joy to see that happen they have been the favorites to win it all this whole season.
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Post by telluricrook on Sept 28, 2016 22:11:58 GMT -5
Koji is a party animal! LOL
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Post by telluricrook on Sept 26, 2016 23:34:10 GMT -5
If you want to win you have to score more runs than the other team!
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Post by telluricrook on Sept 26, 2016 23:32:10 GMT -5
If the statistics you are using show deviation in terms of total runs in relation to teams overall rather than the individual team, then it would make sense that teams which give up more runs would have larger deviations as there are a larger number of possible outcomes as a result of the greater number of runs given up. Do you have the numbers which show the above to be true? This simply isn't true at all and is easily disproven by looking at win percentages at each number of runs scored. That sounds like a lot of work, but luckily Scott Lindholm did the heavy lifting a few years back. It's a funny bell curve with the difference between 3 and 4 runs scored having the largest outcome on win% since the Deadball Era. Here is the link if you are interested: beyondthescorecard.blogspot.com/2013/05/runs-scored-and-winning-percent.htmlI'm not saying that teams with negative run differentials are benefited more by blowouts, simply stating that if they average fewer runs than the opposing team, and in each game between the two teams they each score their expected average, then the teams which averages fewer RS would lose every game and therefore benefit from wider distributions than the perfect average each time. I'm simply concluding that this would also be the case in more than this extreme instance. I'm sure someone has done the research and will check sometime later when i have more free time unless someone else beats me to it. Yeah - i really don't like the current Pyth and I think you got my gist. A pyth which measures the relationship between RS and RA as a % of total RS+RA would make far more sense than a simple RS-RA formula. The simplest way to observe this is by starting with at a team that outscores their opponent 324-162 during the season. You may expect them to win the vast majority of their games, but not all of their games. But a team that outscores their opponent 162-0 would clearly win 100% of their games. As the RS-RA = 162 in each of these instances, it's clear that the formula doesn't work. I bet that if you accounted for this, it would lead to a more predictive formula than what is currently available (although it would surprise me if someone isn't already doing this). --apologies for going so far off-subject everyone - feel free to move us to an off-subject thread. Actually, that table shows that the second run you score is the most important, the third and fourth just a bit less so, and that it falls off from there. You have to subtract each Win% from the previous: .110, .147, ,140, .136, .106, .087, .071, .051, .041. You can see that scoring (or giving up) a 5th, 6th, or 7th run is a lot less damaging than giving up runs 1 through 4. Now, for starting pitchers going 6 innings on average (or a bit more) and bullpens on average giving up another run, outing with 4 ER allowed are the equivalent of 5 RA for the team, so a pitcher's 4th RA is discounted. The big confound here when using historical data is that the scoring of the two teams in not independent -- it is correlated by the weather, the park, and the era played in (if you're totaling over a long stretch of time). Take the actual distribution of RS and RA of each team in a league over a season and simulate, shuffling all the RS and RA at random (resolving ties in some fair way), and you will get fewer 2-1 and 3-2 games than you will in reality. weather absolutely changes the run expectation for both teams in tandem. There's You can factor the weather into the SNWP, but the underlying historical data has the confound that the weather and park ( correlates the scoring I really miss BP's "Support-Neutral Winning Percentage," which I had in fact conceived separately years before they introduced it. For a given IP and RA (properly adjusted for park, defense, quality of opposition -- the works), what are the odds of winning that game, with an average bullpen? That is essentially a perfected bWAR that also factors in these run distribution effects. For instance, for a given RA, there's a huge difference in expected win percentage in 50 degree weather with the wind howling in, versus the same RA on a hot day with the wind blowing out. A proper SNWP needs to in part adjust the RA, and in part the opposition RS expectation. It's a major project just to work out how it ought to work, let alone derive the model. Jibber Jabber Jibber Jabber Mumbo Jumbo!
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Post by telluricrook on Sept 24, 2016 20:49:25 GMT -5
For a minute there, I thought Longoria would get a chance to tie this thing up. Expect Kimbrel to face better hitters to get a chance to tie things up this October.
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Post by telluricrook on Sept 23, 2016 22:40:11 GMT -5
The Mookie Betts love affair is astonishing to me. 5'9" 156lbs, 5th rd pick in low A. Having a nice 2 week stretch, let's all simmer down. I wonder if people would feel the same things if he were white and his name was Jim Smith. I'm glad he's doing well and has talent but let not get all over his ranking as revisionists over a couple week stretch. I any of you complaining ha him in your preseason top 30 then fire away. If not simmer. The differences between 30 and 50 is very very fluid. Most guys are long shots and the preference is given to the guys who are closer. He going to be an MVP candidate in just a couple of years! Mark my words!
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Post by telluricrook on Sept 21, 2016 23:25:38 GMT -5
Are the Red Sox peaking too early? You mean during the last week and a half as they finally blow by the competition by systematically eliminating each of those teams? Idk but all i know is that if the playoffs started tomorrow this team would win the world series.
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Post by telluricrook on Sept 21, 2016 23:02:40 GMT -5
Are the Red Sox peaking too early?
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Post by telluricrook on Sept 21, 2016 19:38:22 GMT -5
Tommy Heinsohn always said thats its really hard to win when you have to face two teams in one game.
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Post by telluricrook on Sept 21, 2016 19:35:22 GMT -5
Ubaldo has a horseshoe stuck between his legs.
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Post by telluricrook on Sept 21, 2016 19:23:49 GMT -5
Wow, 1 run is so much better than expected. Mookie will bring it back here. That run was on Leon. How can that be an earned run? A good throw could have gotten out the runner at second.
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Post by telluricrook on Sept 21, 2016 2:47:50 GMT -5
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Post by telluricrook on Sept 21, 2016 1:19:36 GMT -5
Porcello is a tier above Kluber in run support with 2 full runs more, which has absolutely nothing to do with how good of a pitcher is. Unless you want to argue that the team hits better because of who their pitcher is. The main difference in Porcello this year and last year is: Stat | 2015
| 2016
| BABIP | .332
| .260
| LOB%
| 67.5%
| 74.4%
| HR/FB%
| 14.5%
| 9.7%
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Some of that can be attributed to his improved ability to pitch with runners on base and improved team defense, but not all of it. Pitchers without more elite strikeout rates will rely on these stats and obviously on defense for their performance a lot more. A lot of things are completely out of their control when the ball is put in play. If a player gets a hit thats not a homerun and it is considered luck nobody should ever watch baseball!
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Post by telluricrook on Sept 20, 2016 2:49:06 GMT -5
The Red Sox have passed the Cubs for the best odds to win the world series according to Fangraphs.
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Post by telluricrook on Sept 20, 2016 2:35:00 GMT -5
Kevin Gauseman has to put up a stinker at some point. Or at least give up some runs. If he repeats his last performance I will be pissed.
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Post by telluricrook on Sept 20, 2016 2:21:52 GMT -5
Mike Trout plays in games that dont even matter. Teams probably dont even take him as a real threat when the Angels are gettin their *** kicked all the time.
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Post by telluricrook on Sept 20, 2016 2:09:28 GMT -5
With all of his run support Porcello attacks the strikezone to get more contact just so the game end so he has to sacrifice a couple runs in the meantime. He pitches well enough to win the game more than all of the other candidates they dont pitch well enough to win. Kluber Has nine losses are you kidding me? No chance he wins it when there is a guy that has 21 wins and just four or five losses at the most.
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Post by telluricrook on Sept 20, 2016 1:42:37 GMT -5
A few responses re: Porcello: - He's legitimately been one of the five best pitchers in the AL this year. If you want to say that means that "he's in the conversation" for Cy Young, fine, but I don't think he's all that close to number one (that's Sale or Kluber).
- Even if you used ERA-based value statistics like bWAR or Fangraphs' RA9-WAR, Porcello comes behind Sale (and Kluber is only slightly behind in RA9-WAR while being way ahead in bWAR). Porcello has given up more unearned runs than expected, and he's pitched in front of a very good defense. Those things matter.
- WHIP overrates Porcello-- he gives up very few walks, which means he doesn't allow many baserunners, but when he does give up hits, he generally gives up harder contact than his Cy Young competitors.
- Similarly, he ranks well in K/BB because of a low denominator, but by K-BB% (which is a more accurate indicator of pitcher quality), he comes in ninth (behind both Sale and Kluber, among others).
The only real argument for Porcello is based off pitcher wins. As alluded to, that's not in the least convincing to me. Really, really good season. But not the best pitcher in the AL. Kluber is going to get destroyed by the Royals in his next start so he will be out of the race after having a bad start in three of his last four outings.
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Post by telluricrook on Sept 19, 2016 13:08:24 GMT -5
Walk hanley with the bases empty is not that bad. He has Mookie batting before him you know what he does in that park.
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Post by telluricrook on Sept 17, 2016 14:29:54 GMT -5
This is it Beni! This will define your season for me.
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Post by telluricrook on Sept 17, 2016 13:28:49 GMT -5
Why isnt he using his changeup?
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Post by telluricrook on Sept 17, 2016 12:56:10 GMT -5
Price still needs to do a better job at finishing off these batters when he is always ahead 0-2 or 1-2.
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