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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Dec 6, 2015 3:00:01 GMT -5
Yeah guys, DON'T CHERRY PICK stats. Btw, if you look at Steven Wright's stats, particularly 4 starts only during the months of July and August, on odd-numbered days, when the temperature was over 75 degrees but under 93 degrees, when he was on normal rest, and when he had a full night's sleep, and his mother tucked him in the night before, he was pretty good.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Dec 4, 2015 20:44:28 GMT -5
FAKE! NM
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Dec 4, 2015 20:27:29 GMT -5
Greinke to Arizona, in a shocker. Can't wait to hear the money Arizona had to pay to convince him to go there. assuming it's something along the lines of 6 years 31-33 per
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Dec 4, 2015 19:49:59 GMT -5
Oh my god this thread is filled with gems
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Dec 4, 2015 17:13:41 GMT -5
Yeah, I saw him several times in AA and loved him - thought he would be a low power .370 OBP guy. Selectivity, pitch recognition and contact on swing were all excellent. All of which is why, when we drool over someone in A ball (or even AA or AAA) we have to remember that the success rate is very, very low for these guys. It's simply about recognizing flaws and accepting that it's okay to value a prospect but to also be leary about his deficiencies. We see tons of no power high obp guys exposed in the upper minors when pitchers aren't afraid of being taken out of the park. Factor in Cecchini's awful defense, and well, you can understand the DFA.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Dec 4, 2015 17:08:56 GMT -5
How much did theoretical market value did Cecchini have? 30-40 million?
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Dec 4, 2015 1:53:59 GMT -5
John Farrell is a fine manager. He can't make great teams out of garbage, nor should we expect him to.
For all the "fire Farrell" people, who do we want instead? Bud Black? A first time manager? Hokay.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Dec 4, 2015 1:41:06 GMT -5
I guess the braves need to go to plan b for a center fielder now that they are hanging onto Miller. I thought we matched up with them very well for a large trade. If the reports of Pollock and Soler are accurate, sounds like they were aiming much higher than jackie bradley.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Dec 4, 2015 1:38:38 GMT -5
Can David price help Owens become a better pitcher this spring? Can price help Owens find the consistentcy that Owens desperately needs to take the next step in his development? "Desperately" ? He's 23, relax.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Dec 3, 2015 14:35:27 GMT -5
Yeah he was at 51% in Salem, but I wonder how much of that was while he was trying to play through injury. He's typically been in the 40s. Good point. Forgot about that debacle early in the year. Regardless of how our front office valued him, what matters is how the rest of the league does. There are plenty of scouts who love the kid according to Keith Law, who has no reason to lie about that. So this trade will remain an overpay no matter how people try to justify it. It is what it is though. No, not regardless of how he was valued. We have reports on him from people and outlets that do not matter. What matters is how the Sox and Padres viewed him, because realistically, the Sox were shopping at one store. They didn't pay 10 bucks for a Big Mac when the price of a Big Mac two blocks away was 5 bucks.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Dec 3, 2015 2:35:07 GMT -5
sign me up for the best Trey Ball clone
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Dec 3, 2015 2:28:14 GMT -5
Cesar Ramos non-tendered by the Angels. Could he be a left-handed upgrade to our bullpen? Perhaps send Layne to Pawtucket on his final option? lefties hit .274/.346 off him last year, they hit .148/.248 off Layne. Layne is a classic LOOGY. He was forced into facing righties last year because our pen was atrocious. If they build the pen correctly, and use Layne as he's supposed to be used, he's a weapon.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Dec 3, 2015 2:22:56 GMT -5
I think Miller would be a great pickup. Obviously, the Braves are going to (and can) ask for a lot, despite Miller's atrocious record last year. And that's because he averages 94 with his fastball, and pitched 200 innings with an ERA just over 3 despite having a mediocre to poor framing catcher (Pierzynski) calling his games. And he's only 25. He's exactly the type of pitcher (like Danny Salazar) who's on track for the next step. He's added a (very good) cutter and has a nice sinker, to go with a CB that still has potential to become outstanding (and is pretty good as is). And again, at 25, he is right on the cusp of when pitchers generally go from good to great. I'd hate to see NY get him; I'd like to see the Sox package Owens, Marrero, and Kelly, or if need be JBJ (and I really don't want to see JBJ or Owens go) to slot him in between Price and Rodriguez. That pushes Porcello back to 4, and Miley to 5, with Johnson still as depth. The Braves might also like Barnes, thinking they can develop him as a starter or harness him as a back-end RP. If Kelly-Owens-Marrero+/-Barnes does it, they don't need to make an OF move. I really don't like the idea of moving JBJ, both because of his potential and the hole it creates, but Miller is a 2 with clear 1 potential. I'm not quite sure how tradeable Henry Owens is at this point. Johnson's health is a bit of a question mark, and you'd like to have some real impact quality depth down there at AAA. I also don't think they'd trade 2 starters for similar depth reasons. Edit: They've also been asking for Soler or AJ Pollock. So we probably shouldn't even discuss this without linking them to a high quality OF-er.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Dec 3, 2015 2:12:51 GMT -5
Will Middlebrooks non-tendered Since the start of 2013, the only two players with a lower wRC+ among the 317 who have amassed 700 or more plate appearances are Darwin Barney and Alexi Amerista. The only two with a lower OBP are (and this one is particularly brutal) J.P. Arencibia and Mike Zunino. Si nce the beginning of 2014, he ranks dead last in wRC+ with a 54 (400+ PA). Everth Cabrera is next worse at 57. Junior Lake is the only one with a lower OBP. It makes me wonder how we missed so badly on him. Basically every other player who has hit so poorly provides some other value and/or plays an up-the-middle position. Middlebrooks is pretty amazing in that he was there for his bat and still got such a long look despite hitting so incredibly poorly. Perhaps it's because his inability to hit the change proved to be so fatal but was one that was tough to identify by scouts when he was on his way up, simply because there are so few minor leaguers who can consistently throw a changeup for a strike? If a player can't hit a curveball that's going to set off huge red flags because scouts look for that, but Middlebrooks actually handles the curve reasonably okay. He had a habit of making adjustments to every level in the minors and started so well, he just got a lot of chances because it's hard to tell where learning curve ends and inability to adjust begins. Tough to hit in the major leagues.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Dec 3, 2015 0:28:06 GMT -5
Will Middlebrooks non-tendered
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Dec 2, 2015 23:22:24 GMT -5
Alvarez not tendered a contract
edit: pedro, that is
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Dec 2, 2015 23:16:57 GMT -5
well, we nailed this. Though I'd argue we gave it a year too late to the wrong guy. Price is far better than Lester. He's earning 5-6 more per year. So the difference is less than Chris Young. Let's relax people.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Dec 2, 2015 23:10:36 GMT -5
It wouldn't be the first time a pitcher experienced a huge spike in K rate coming out of the pen (whether due to a velo jump or concentrating on two pitches). Before shifting to the pen, Wade Davis and Brett Cecil were ~6 to 7 K/9 guys like Alvarez is now. Plus, I don't think Dombrowski is dogmatic enough to ignore a guy just because he's more of a GB guy than a strikeout guy. I'll agree with that, I think a guy who can induce a timely double play is useful. It just seems like an odd project for the Sox and for a guy who had a really great 2014 season starting, probably feels like he can start, and probably wants to use 2nd half of 2016 to recoup some value and sign a nice size deal in free agency. I don't think Boston is the best venue for him to achieve that.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Dec 2, 2015 23:06:16 GMT -5
The team is looking pretty much set with the Price signing. Here is my personal roster prediction: [...] BE - Vazquez BE - Young BE - Holt BE - Craig??[...] The Price deal makes it much less likely that Craig will ever be put on the major league roster, which would make the money owed him subject to taxation It'd mean the Hanley and Shaw experiment went south fast, in which case, if Craig was semi-hitting, they probably wouldn't care about the money. I'm assuming they can always put him back on waivers (he'd clear, and if he doesn't WOOO!)
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Dec 2, 2015 23:01:06 GMT -5
It's not selling high if you have something that you think is worth a dime and other people think is worth a quarter and you sell it for a dime anyway. You're assuming that the selling party knows the objective value the buying party puts on the thing in question (in this case a player). In reality though, we know that sellers are not privy to this knowledge. That's why people are always scratching their heads over Billy Beane trades, claiming that he didn't get enough value in return for the player(s) he traded away. Beane is placing different objective values on the players he is acquiring than are the rest of us. So, you actually can "sell high" (according to your perspective but not the perspective of the buyer) due to an imperfect flow of information. They're also assuming that baseball america and sox prospects and baseball prospectus opinions are gospel, when teams have entire player development and scout systems to determine their values of players respective to their systems and needs. Margot, a guy who has a .61x OPS against righties (majority of pitchers) in 2015, is clearly one of the most talented outfielders in the minors, despite his immediate use would be the weaker side of a platoon? The thirst for this Kool-Aid is strong.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Dec 2, 2015 22:01:33 GMT -5
There's more than one way to skin a cat. Alvarez is a career 96 ERA-/105 FIP-/101 xFIP- pitcher who is all of 25 years old, and while he is coming off serious elbow/shoulder issues, I would be all over him on a one year, low-salary contract. He was projected to earn $4m in arb, so $2-3m should do it. He'd be useful rotation depth (he's likely to start the season on the DL and I think he has options left) or maybe even an intriguing bullpen conversion candidate. If he sticks, he's arb-eligible in 2017. Yeah, he's sort of an interesting guy, but considering the way the sox are set up he seems like a guy who wouldn't find time in the majors in 2016 starting, but I wouldn't hate having for depth. I'm not so sure the Sox would consider him for the pen. A low strikeout guy who pitches to contact isn't the guy I think DD is looking for.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Dec 2, 2015 21:57:54 GMT -5
I get why people think the Sox are "all in" and they basically are, I just don't think the Sox view it quite that way. They know their core is extremely young, so as much as they're pairing them with elite talent, they're also pairing them with veteran leaders.
Price's effect on the younger guys, Owens, Erod, etc will surely be felt. I'm sure Pat Light and Barnes will also benefit from Price and Kimbrel. And from all accounts, Chris Young is a fantastic veteran presence that should be good for Betts/JBJ and Castillo to an extent.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Dec 2, 2015 21:38:40 GMT -5
Henderson Alvarez designated. A lot of interesting names being made available. I'm a little surprised they couldn't find a trade partner. He's gonna miss the first few months, but still.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Dec 2, 2015 21:17:06 GMT -5
Nick Hagadone DFA'd. Dude could never cut down on the walks
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Dec 2, 2015 21:11:10 GMT -5
Now is a good time to start throwing out some "what will Dombrowski do at the winter meetings?" talk, seeing as he's fixed the GLARING holes.
Pen help for sure, Brewers have a few guys in Jeffress and Smith that'd be nice additions. Some interesting guys on the FA market in Chris Young, Madson, Sipp, and more interesting, Mark Lowe.
Jose Fernandez looks a little more interesting now that Price is the #1. Miley or Buch or Kelly might bring back a prospect for that deal (or Kelly could maybe be in it.
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