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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 5, 2023 13:39:52 GMT -5
It is weird that he is not on the 60 day IL. He could start his 30 day minor league rehab stint today and that would end after he'd be eligible to return from the 60. Maybe getting him off the 40 man roster would invite scrutiny. I kinda think DD is just doing the kid a solid by giving him a major league pay check for a bit You're not allowed to put a guy on the 60-day until you need the 40-man spot. There's really no reason to anyway until you need the spot, but it's in the rules that you actually can't use the 60-day until you're replacing the player.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 5, 2023 10:38:31 GMT -5
And improved command. But yeah, you hit it on the head.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 5, 2023 10:37:20 GMT -5
They are definitely being deliberate about their approach. Baseball-Reference Pitch Data - BattingThey're at about the league average in terms of pitches per plate appearance, but they have one of the league's lowest rates for swinging at the first pitch, one of the lower swinging strike rates, one of the best contact rates, etc. They also are near the top of the league in number of favorable hitter's counts faced. Overall, they're about average in terms of walk rate, but they're being disciplined in order to put balls in play. It's a fun brand of baseball to watch. Which is a drastic change in approach from the last couple years. Feels intentional.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 5, 2023 10:36:03 GMT -5
Yeah, I don't want to be a negative guy because he's had a great start, but he screams guy who we answer constant questions about "why isn't he ranked higher? " (not that you're doing this) until he gets to AA or AAA and gets creamed. His average FB velo is 88.8 so far, second-lowest in the system for guys with 6 IP as of 5/1, and the shape is pretty middling (it neither sinks nor has ride). He's doing a great job getting ahead of guys but it feels like a house of cards built on an arm angle guys haven't seen before at that level. He's in the next 10 outside the top 60, but he's screaming for a regression.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 5, 2023 9:18:35 GMT -5
Not trying to get to far ahead here but in the new CBA is he eligible for rookie of the year status and if so would we get draft pick compensation? Yes, he's a rookie. No, because he wasn't listed on two of the three lists they use (BA, MLB, ESPN). And before we all go crying foul, you could argue that this is the system working as intended - the point is to induce teams to call up their MLB-ready prospects, not to reward teams for signing international professionals.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 5, 2023 9:16:30 GMT -5
I am genuinely curious to see how this works out when Duvall gets back.
As Ian said on the podcast, if it's a month from now and Casas is still struggling, it might be Yoshida to DH and Turner to first. You can't remove Duran from the lineup the way he's playing.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 4, 2023 18:45:56 GMT -5
Has to be some odds at Fan Duel or anorther site Mayer is the favorite from the red sox to get promoted 1st. Drohan has to be a favorite. Nathan Landry was promoted earlier this week.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 4, 2023 16:18:20 GMT -5
A PBP person has the job of describing the game on the field in an entertaining way for fans. It's not their job to have encyclopedic knowledge of literally everything in the game.
This can be done different ways. Vin Scully was a master storyteller. Do we think he could say what wRC+ is? (Although he probably would've gone and discussed it with someone then spent three innings masterfully relating the conversations he had that day on the subject while weaving in his call of the on-field action. Damn I miss Vin Scully.)
I guarantee you that 80% of the fans watching a game couldn't care less about advanced statistics. Would it be better for a guy to know the answer? Sure. Is it a failure that he doesn't know? I don't think so.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 4, 2023 16:04:40 GMT -5
It's important to look at what they're doing here, for those who may not read the intro. They're comparing parks across affiliated minor league baseball, not by league. That leads to, for example, what looks like an EXTREMELY strong correlation between level and HR, with the top of that list mostly AAA and AA parks. So in Salem's case, I think you're seeing the combined effect of a park that suppresses home runs with the park being in a Low-A league.
I'd love to see it sortable by the MULT number as well, which is in the league context.
In other words, this is useful in a "how many runs/home runs can I expect to see in a game played at X ballpark," but that's factoring in more than just the park.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 3, 2023 22:43:22 GMT -5
Ronald Rosario reached base 5 times today, going 1-1 with 4 walks At .239/.393/.435 now, although the strikeouts are almost at 30%. He seems like he has made the cut as one of the guys they are prioritizing on that team, along with Anthony, Bleis, Coffey, Castro, Chacon and Ravelo. I wonder what happened last year when he was one of the last guys off the bench in the FCL. Could be any number of things. He almost certainly was hurt from 6/22-7/7, then went through stretches when he didn't catch at all - only 1B and DH. Could be that he put a lot of work in during the offseason. Could be he was dinged up and getting load managed. Will need to look into that.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 3, 2023 11:02:05 GMT -5
I don't wanna throw cold water on it but there are still red flags to me on Duran's bat. Only one qualifying player in baseball had a walk rate worse than he does now and a wRC+ over 105. It's improvable, he walked much more in the minors than he has so far in he majors, but when you don't have plate discipline to fall back it can get ugly quick when the quality of contact drops. Maybe it'll come naturally as an adjustment once he's not crushing everything. The projection systems like him as a just slightly above average hitter going forward, and if he's that, with suddenly decent defense in CF, that's a really valuable guy (2-3 WAR). If he can improve the plate discipline though with the power he's showing now the ceiling could be really high. There are only 97 qualified hitters in baseball above 105 wRC+ though. If you expand down to 50 PA (which you have to do in order to include him), there are a few more. It strikes me as a noise thing with a sample this small. My guess is he'll stop getting challenged as much if he keeps this up and the walk rate will go up. His chase rate was fine in AAA (25%) and it's about the same in MLB (27.6%), so he's not being overly aggressive. The cause seems to be that pitchers aren't walking him, not that he isn't walking, if that makes sense.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 2, 2023 13:08:34 GMT -5
Friday is the current plan
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 2, 2023 10:34:29 GMT -5
Would've bet good money on a Wreck of the Ryan Fitzgerald pun but doesn't quite work does it?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 1, 2023 12:19:45 GMT -5
It amounts to a hitless week. Many players will have a drought like that at some point during a season. Franchyâs problem is that he adds very little when he is not on a heater. He canât play any premium positions, and heâs not anything close to elite at the ones he can play. He also has contact issues, so you canât at least get some random walks and runners moved over when heâs going cold. Itâs not that he sucks persay, itâs that he has to hit to have value, and he has neither the established track record nor the secondary skills to grant him as long a leash as other players might receive. The Red Sox have already had weeklong droughts this year, though. That alone isnât enough to discard a player, and frankly, New York isnât getting a whole lot from any of their alternatives in LF. Kiké - 0 for 28 / 3 for 37 Arroyo - 1 for 26 Yoshida - 0 for 18 Devers - 1 for 18 Turner - 0 for 17 The point was that his short bender wasn't him suddenly figuring it out, which, for some reason, a lot of people thought it was because he's on the Yankees now and for some reason that still triggers people.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 1, 2023 12:17:42 GMT -5
Then you're putting a negative sign next to players that are valued by teams in the real world but are a little below average. That's pretty close to how people get measured throughout life. The idea is that you're measuring a player against what the readily available replacement would do. The problem with this "median" player is the median what? Median regular*? Median guy who plays in MLB at all at any time during the year? It's going to be arbitrary anyway. To me "this much better or worse than a readily available replacement" makes a lot of sense as the zero point rather than trying to agree on some definition of "average". * = if you don't pronounce the R this is a drink at Dunkin actually.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 30, 2023 11:32:40 GMT -5
Casas sitting again? I get it, I don’t like it but I get it. But if they’re not going to start him they should let him get regular at bats in AAA Cora said they were going to give him 2 games off this weekend. He hasn't been benched.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 30, 2023 11:31:04 GMT -5
The actual O/U for the Padres/Giants came in Mexico City today is 20 runs. They put up 27 yesterday They apparently have the balls at normal, sea level humidor conditions rather than Colorado humidor conditions. Clearly trying to induce some fireworks for the Mexico City crowd...
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 29, 2023 21:48:21 GMT -5
with that thinking he might as well have stayed in the military with an officers pension, then the airlines and a pilots pension. MLB minimum will not be long if he does not look like a possible MLB pitcher. If he was destined to not make the MLB much, much more money from airlines (I am a Certified Financial Planner). Draft rounds 20-40 were done away with, and I was very glad as the vast majority were better off taking a scholarship full ride than a small sign on bonus, no scholarship, and very low probability of EVER being on the 40 man roster… I don't believe he was trained as a pilot and it wasn't fixed wing school either (I'm not). Correct. Per the Capitol Gazette, "He was winged as a Naval flight officer, the aviator that serves as navigator, lookout and weapons operator aboard the aircraft." Pretty sure it was helicopters too.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 28, 2023 15:45:28 GMT -5
The Red Sox rotation just can't have nice things anymore. Son of a gun. I don't wanna jump to conclusions but I'm not picturing Whitlock back for a while if not next season. Ugh that's a gut punch. When the discussion was who would go when everyone was healthy…. Has not happened in any real and meaningful way since 2004. Has it ever happened that all 5 starters started 29 or more games in the history of the Red Sox…..if yes, certainly not with the quality of starters as 2004……The Curse breakers… Pedro - 33 Schilling - 32 Lowe - 33 Arroyo - 29 Wakefield - 30 I mean, that's rare across the game. It's not a Red Sox thing. The Mariners only used 5 starters last year, I think, and that was a big deal.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 28, 2023 14:06:09 GMT -5
Mata now starting, Walter tomorrow, with Bello up to Boston.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 27, 2023 22:04:54 GMT -5
I'm just stunned there were no exclamation points in the tweet.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 27, 2023 21:44:13 GMT -5
Apparently a nice sliding catch makes you "different" now?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 27, 2023 17:27:09 GMT -5
Luis De La Rosa actually getting the start tonight. Turns out that Paez to the IL was the countermove for Brand, with some shoulder stiffness.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 26, 2023 10:07:09 GMT -5
Dan Altavilla – continued elbow soreness
Victor Santos – shut down from throwing with elbow soreness
Ryan Zeferjahn – rehab assignment soon
Zach Bryant had TJS
Brainer Bonaci – joining GRE this week
Tyler Esplin – live game/AB’s. In a throwing progression
Tyler Uberstine – Slow throwing progression ramp-up
Mikey Romero – doesn't sound super close. Working in XST
Reidis Sena – In game progression in XST
Matt Litwicki – Throwing progression
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 26, 2023 10:01:59 GMT -5
The thing with "selling high" is the assumption day the public perception of a player lines up with the industry evaluation. Rafaela strikes me as a guy whose public valuation may have been higher than that of teams, although it only takes one, I guess.
And yeah I think if Dombrowski were the GM Rafaela gets moved this past offseason.
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