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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 30, 2024 10:34:30 GMT -5
As I recall (memory of course being very fallible), Little did that kind of thing all year long. Old-timey baseball stuff that had since been pushed against if not debunked. I remember that being one of my first experiences with pushing against an oversimplified narrative - that he was fired because he didn't take Pedro out of that specific game like it was the only time something like that had happened.
Fwiw nobody made Little do the interview. Colin Barnicle, IIRC, said he thought Little might say no when they asked him. But at any rate, the team didn't make this - it's Barnicle and Netflix. You can't truly tell the story of the 04 team well without 2003, which means you have to talk about Grady Little.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 30, 2024 10:29:12 GMT -5
Yeah he's not logistics so much as "the stuff that happens and needs to be known running a baseball team", as I understand it.
It's more or less where he was prior to becoming GM, I think.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 30, 2024 8:44:56 GMT -5
Okay, I've been Zaprudering this, and actually what I'm really mystified by is fan #2 - the guy who grabs Mookie's right hand. What is he trying to do there? Help his buddy steal the ball by manhandling the Dodgers' rightfielder (again, somehow thinking no one will notice)? But he actually seems to draw the hand towards Mookie's glove hand. Very inexplicable Yankee fan behavior; very deranged. I think the second guy is trying to restrain Mookie’s right hand so he cannot use it to keep his glove on and fight off the other guy. Funny to watch this after watching the 2004 doc and seeing the play in which ARod swipes the ball out of Arroyo’s hand on the 1b line. This. These guys were yahoos, but I think they deserve a bit of credit for kind of knowing the rules. They're allowed, once we're in the stands instead of in play, to try and catch the ball. It wouldn't have been interference, for example, if they had caught the ball in front of Mookie's glove. It also probably wouldn't have been if they hit his glove while they were going for the ball either. Obviously, they crossed the line significantly when you're talking about intentionally trying to rip the ball out of his glove. A good fan is trying to catch that ball so Mookie can't. Just, y'know, don't ASSAULT the guy.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 29, 2024 10:52:11 GMT -5
The compensation used to be lose one pick if you sign a free agent but get two picks if you lose one. Theo gamed the system after 2004 if you look at that 2005 draft. I remember Lowe complaining that Boston never contacted him after offering him arb because Theo wanted the two draft picks. That's right, thank you. I think you got 2 for a Type A and 1 for a Type B? I remember one year they either signed or traded for Ricky Gutierrez in August or something with no intent to play him just because he somehow was a Type B free agent who had compensation attached.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 29, 2024 10:49:55 GMT -5
Isn’t it kind of a no no for a former assistant GM to blow up the owners spot like that? Several of Zack's old colleagues have been laid off recently by the current regime Sincerely doubt this has anything to do with anything. Do you have anyone specific in mind here?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 29, 2024 9:49:50 GMT -5
I always bungle it when I try to embed a tweet, but former Red Sox assistant gm Zack Scott just tweeted: “This triggers flashbacks to internal conversations about signing Mookie, and our owner said he had no interest in doing mega deals. I guess you can build around them.🤷♂️ #redsox #dodgers #yankees #WorldSeries2024 #mlb” This was in response to a list of top 10 salaried players for the Dodgers and Yankees. Feels like a pretty significant statement in the context of this particular discussion but also the constant back and forth about Mookie. Isn’t it kind of a no no for a former assistant GM to blow up the owners spot like that? I mean let’s be honest, most of us assumed this was the case. Interesting. Scott seems to be doing well with his consulting gig and maybe isn't concerned about getting back into a front office. I was surprised at the frankness myself. As for the difference between then and 2022, my guess is there is more nuance to it than 140 characters allows.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 29, 2024 9:44:35 GMT -5
Just for reference (mostly by me) no current or former Sox on the Panamanian Premier12 team.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 28, 2024 22:24:41 GMT -5
Updated through the beginning of 2008 So I'm in the middle of this long-term project to catalog every rankings update over time (harder than it sounds - we used to have smaller weekly updates, so you can't just rely upon archive.org - poster Dick Duggan's tracking of this has been critical to make this even possible). Anyway, it used to be fairly rare for the top prospect to be unseated other than by graduation or trade, but lately, that's happened more often. Here's as far back as I've gotten so far. 11/23/23 - Present: Roman Anthony 7/1/22 - 11/23/23: Marcelo Mayer (fell to #2 but was more surpassed barely than fell, and his being #2 isn't unanimous among the brass either) 6/1/19 - 7/1/22: Triston Casas (fell to #2, very much passed rather than fell though, graduated 5/4/23 at #2) 6/1/18 - 6/1/19: Michael Chavis (graduated) 10/15/17 - 6/1/18: Jay Groome (Fell to #4 due to TJS and continued to fall, traded July 2022 at #16. If this seems weird that he was #1 to you, Ian and I were at the ST start where he got hurt and I 100% stand by the ranking. He looked like he was going to be a beast.) 5/1/17 - 10/15/17: Rafael Devers (graduated) 12/17/16 - 5/1/17: Andrew Benintendi (graduated) 9/1/15 - 12/1/16: Yoan Moncada (traded) 8/1/15 - 9/1/15: Rafael Devers (briefly poked ahead of Moncada for a month (he'd been at 3) and maybe shouldn't have in hindsight) 7/1/15 - 8/1/15: Eduardo Rodriguez (graduated) 9/12/14 - 7/1/15: Blake Swihart (graduated) 5/12/14 - 9/12/14: Mookie Betts (graduated) 7/20/12 - 5/12/14: Xander Bogaerts (graduated) 6/22/12 - 7/13/12: Matt Barnes (passed by Bogaerts, fell to #2, graduated 7/1/15 at #9) 7/22/11 - 6/22/12: Will Middlebrooks (graduated) 12/10/10-7/21/11: Ryan Kalish (passed by WMB, fell as low as 9 before graduating) 7/11/09-12/9/20: Casey Kelly (traded) 8/16/08-7/10/09: Lars Anderson (fell off, getting passed by Kelly and falling as low as 33 when he was traded for Steven Wright at the 2012 trade deadline. Also I definitely thought he was the #1 prospect for way longer than this!) 7/27/08-8/15/08: Michael Bowden (transitional #1 who was quickly passed by Lars but was #2 into mid 2009 before starting to slip, falling to 22 in June 2010 before a quick rebound and then falling into the 40s over that offseason, last ranked 40 on 9/2/11. I actually completely forgot he was #1 at any point.) 5/4/08-7/26/08: Justin Masterson (graduated) 5/12/07-5/3/08: Clay Buchholz (graduated)
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 28, 2024 14:09:08 GMT -5
Does Boddy do media? I'd love to hear him on the podcast. For what it's worth, I don't think he's nearly involved with the Red Sox as people think. I get the sense (no inside info) he's basically on retainer for advice or certain projects, and with this interim job, he's in charge of standing up this new department but he's not going to be doing a lot of stuff that baseball fans are going to find terribly interesting.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 28, 2024 14:04:42 GMT -5
- The ARod counterfactual is interesting. Ordonez was in his walk year. Who goes to LF in 2005? JD Drew was a free agent coming off his best season. They don't sign Edgar Renteria to replace Nomar/Cabarera, which means they don't end up with Coco Crisp after that. Lester being such a huge success is another wild domino. If you want to go full butterfly effect, maybe they're not quite so keen on drafting a low ceiling, quick to the majors middle infielder early in the 2004 draft. Don't forget though that FA comp used to be ludicrous. They'd have gotten a first rounder if Mags walked. The penalty for signing a FA wasn't as bad as the comp you got back for signing one, so it created an incentive to cycle free agents.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 28, 2024 14:01:46 GMT -5
Haven't watched yet but listened to the Section 10 episode with Colin Barnicle (the director), which was a great listen. As far as missing people, apparently Bellhorn legit just doesn't talk and doesn't come back to any of the reunions they've had, etc. Millar has apparently joked that Bellhorn says 1 word a month or something.
He actually had an anecdote on there I hadn't heard that Fox tried to set up one of those NFL cameras that's tethered to the top of the stadium between the two foul poles the day of game 1 if the WS, and they almost tore the Pesky Pole down 2 hours before the game. It was apparently bent at a 45 degree angle.
Very funny, entertaining interview.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 25, 2024 14:52:40 GMT -5
Dodgers get both Vesia and Graterol back (Phillips and Henriquez off), and swap in Rojas for Kiermaier.
Yankees get Cortes back, dropping Berti.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 21, 2024 10:21:42 GMT -5
Wikelman I think for sure could start that transition, and I think you can even maybe make an argument for Sandlin, but I wouldn't do it with Wehunt or Mullins yet just because I'm not sure they have the raw stuff to justify throwing away a chance at starting, and I certainly wouldn't do it with Dobbins who looks like he could be a potential back-end guy as soon as 2025. Doesn't seem like they have any interest in moving a guy to the pen unless he's not good enough to make his minor league team's rotation or if he's one month away from debuting in the majors as a reliever. Yeah, listen to Brian Abraham on the podcast last week. Sounded like they are very committed to moving Penrod back into the rotation to start the year, never mind guys who haven't pitched in relief yet. If they think there's a chance a guy can start, he's going to keep starting. Look no further than Crawford and Houck as different versions of this. Dobbins was a guy we discussed who improved his chances of starting this year. Like yeah, it'd be swell to develop Jhoan Duran but they also didn't move Joe Ryan into the bullpen unnecessarily either.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 21, 2024 10:18:13 GMT -5
Handy list! We can see how these turned out: There are actually fewer clunkers here than I would have expected. But also fewer really superlative performances, and those were mostly had by guys who had long and consistently great careers (Papelbon, Rivera, Jansen1), which does not describe anyone in this year's FA class. The median/modal outcomes are like a 3.50 ERA.
I would take the (slightly) under on Scott getting $14-15 million. Someone like Pressly had clearly better numbers and a longer track record than Scott has.
I think age is a key variable here. Not many guys hit FA at 30.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 21, 2024 9:36:31 GMT -5
Andrew Miller is the first one who comes to mind - and damn he was fun to have in a bullpen. Having to overpay for the top reliever available in FA sounds terrible though.I generally hate doing it, but they gotta spend their money on something. A starter is obviously the first priority, but after that it's the bullpen. And I don't think Scott will be horribly expensive. The highest AAVs for relievers in the last three seasons are: Hader 19 million (5 years) Diaz 18.6 million (5 years) Jansen 16 million (2 years) Jansen 16 million (1 year)
Kimbrel 13 million (1 year) Montero 11.5 million (3 years) Rogers 11 million (3 years)
Stephenson 11 million (3 years) Robertson 10.5 million (1 year) Scott isn't in the Diaz/Hader tier, and he's not really a Proven Closer like Jansen. No one else on this list got more than 3 years or 13 million/year. Of course Scott, as a relief pitcher, stands a good chance of sucking. (Don't love his walk rates, or that he has only a two-year track record of excellence.) That's the gamble with investing in the bullpen. But they have to get somebody. Or a few somebodies.
Per Cot's so that this encompasses extensions, legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/league-info/highest-paid-players/ I think he gets between 14-15m AAV. The Pressly deal feels like a comp his agent will use.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 21, 2024 7:14:45 GMT -5
Old friends Juan Centeno, Jason Garcia, and Jorge Benitez on the PR Premier12 team.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 20, 2024 16:28:18 GMT -5
After that 64m, the Red Sox started opening day last year 20m above the CBT and finished about 11m. If we assume maybe we're allowed to work a little closer and are 15m above the CBT to start the year, we'll be at 49m to spend. Huh? By "above" do you mean "below"?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 20, 2024 16:27:20 GMT -5
I mean, Scott fits their needs like a glove. The LHR market is basically the 30yo Scott, the 37yo Chapman, then a massive drop to guys like old friend Jalen Beeks, Caleb Ferguson, TJ Hill Brooks Raley, etc.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 19, 2024 21:34:27 GMT -5
This is kind of what I thought when I saw interim. He's helping set things up and they gave him a new "position" to pay him to do it, but he's not sticking around in a full-time role.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 18, 2024 22:40:46 GMT -5
Also, from the rumors department, Sean McAdam wrote today that he believes Dillon Lawson has the inside track to fill the vacant assistant hitting coach coach position (he was the Red Sox minor league hitting coordinator this past season, and I've read that his work focused on players in the upper minors such as Anthony, Mayer, Teel, Campbell, et al.) and that assistant GM Paul Toboni has the inside track to be named GM under Breslow. Would be unsurprising on Toboni. They've promoted him extremely aggressively.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 18, 2024 20:29:02 GMT -5
I haven’t seen a game tying homer from Cleveland vs the Yankees in the playoffs so clutch since Pedro Cerrano - what an absolute pimp job F you Jobu! I do it myself
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 18, 2024 11:43:49 GMT -5
If Campbell trumps Grissom in the Spring Training MLB 2B Competition & Grammar Jamboree, is it likely that we see Grissom in different positions in Worcester (LF, 3B) like the Braves were doing when they realized he was blocked by Albies? Fwiw, while he did this in Puerto Rico that winter (6 at 3B, 7 in LF), he only played the middle infield stateside for them in 2023. My understanding is this was likely in large part posturing so it didn't look like they HAD to trade him. As for this coming season, who knows? If he wins the 2B job out of camp, then no. If he loses to Campbell or someone else, why not?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 18, 2024 10:45:05 GMT -5
Friends, nobody is trading their one- or two-year bad contract for Yoshida's three remaining years.
To unload Yoshida the Red Sox will have to pay down a ton of the deal or include real prospect value. Add the shoulder surgery and I just don't see that happening.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 18, 2024 10:39:26 GMT -5
I haven’t seen a game tying homer from Cleveland vs the Yankees in the playoffs so clutch since Pedro Cerrano - what an absolute pimp job F you Jobu! I do it myself Changeup is close enough to a curveball right? BTW for anyone who hasn't heard the call of the Noel homer in Spanish, it's electric.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 18, 2024 10:35:53 GMT -5
Grissom getting a thread so we don't need to continue to bump the Sale trade thread - great.
Discussion of what we can expect out of Grissom going forward - Yay message boards and respectful internet discourse.
The idea a five game sample can ever be meaningful in any kind of predictive way - no, let's just all move on.
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