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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 11, 2022 15:23:03 GMT -5
Game 4 starter is officially TBD. ESPN is projecting Winckoswki.
The TBD has to be driven by the possibility that Eovaldi will start game 1 of the Yankees series, in which case Crawford would start game 4 here. But if he needs another rehab start, then it's Crawford on regular rest followed by Wincowski on 7 days in NY, or Winck on 6 days followed by Crawford on 5. The latter would seem to make more sense, given how Winck fared the last time he opened a series against the MFY's.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 11, 2022 3:26:00 GMT -5
This is so stupid. When the Red Sox were great in 2018, it was because they had a whole bunch of great players. With these Yankees it's Jose Trevino, Nestor Cortes, Michael King, Matt Freaking Carpenter... Judge, Stanton, Cole, and a bunch of journeymen are gonna win 110 games. They'll all be forgotten when the Sox show them the door in the second round of the playoffs...
... which would be the first round for the Yankees. Which team will be under more pressure to advance?
----
On May 12th the Sox were 12 games behind the Yankees.
Since them the Yankees had gone 38-17 and the Sox have gone 36-19.
In that stretch, the Yankees have had 11 starts by their ace and the Sox have had 0.
As a result, the Yankees have needed 0 starts from their 6th starter and the Sox have needed 11 ... but he's missed his last 2 with an injury.
The Yankees 2 through 5 starers have missed 0 starts, while the Sox 2 through 5 have missed another 11.
The Yankees have used three AAA pitcher to start a total of 4 games, each designed to give the five starters an extra day of rest (none of them has missed a start all season). The Sox have needed to use four AAA pitchers for 13 starts, and it's not as if the they were trying one guy after another; in the just concluded series, all four guys were in the rotation.
That the Yankees have only gained 2 games on the Sox despite all that makes the quoted assertion quite credible.
There's a big potential irony upcoming, in that the likeliest matchups for the DS are Yankees (1 seed) versus Red Sox (4) and Astros (2) vs. Tampa Bay or Toronto (2nd w/c beating the 3 seed Central champ, plus no re-seading). The odds are actually against beating both the Sox and Astros in successive series. I think the Astros are actually the favorite to win the ALCS.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 10, 2022 23:53:03 GMT -5
When was the last time the Sox came from behind (< 25% win chance) in successive games in a series?
June 5th and 6th of last year, to complete the sweep of the Yanks in the Bronx.
Last time they did it in B2B games period was in the following homestand, June 10 vs. Hou and June 11 vs. Tor.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 10, 2022 4:14:36 GMT -5
Al East clubs go 1-2 outside the division to drop their collective Win % from .606 to just .602.
If this holds up, it's is a 7 or 8 win handicap over the course of a full season.
Meanwhile, the AL Central is playing .442 ball outside the division. The Twins have a 4.5 G lead on the O's, but a very quick and dirty estimate of the handicap between the divisions so far is 5.5 wins.
That's right, so far the 6 best clubs are likely the Astros and the 5 AL East clubs.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 10, 2022 3:45:40 GMT -5
We once had a prospect that was initially regarded as one of the best in the game. When he got to AA he put up a .699 OPS and fell off BA's top 100.
At age 23 in Pawtucket he hit .244 / .332 / .421. Obviously, that didn't get him reinstated. But the line was misleading. This is a cut and paste from a 1997 spreadsheet! The data was compiled from bi-weekly stat lines that appeared in BA, and excludes HB and SF from PA and OBP.
Period PA BA OBP SA weeks 1-4 80 .129 .238 .171 weeks 5- 14 243 .236 .333 .420 weeks 15-22 215 .295 .367 .513
In those days you could buy half a dozen competing season-preview mags. I had a fave but I'd always buy a second one ... that year I bought the sole other mag whose "Down on the Farm" report knew about the slow start and hot finish. The others all reported he was a bust. Nowadays, no one would make that mistake.
The next year he hit .300 / .410 / .513 in AAA and BA put him back in at #99. In his 7 year-prime he averaged 4.1 WAR per 650 PA. He played the big RF beautifully and won a ring in .04. Now, Jeter has never been as good a prospect as Trot was. But the career parallel is very strong. A .606 OPS in AA at age 22 for Jeter vs.Trot's .699, to begin with. And then it gets kind of eerie.
.198 / .315 / .363, 213 PA -- Nixon in AAA, age 23, start
.189 / .297 / .397, 222 PA (214 excluding HB and SF!) -- Downs in AAA, age 23, start
When you weight OBP double, that's a near-identical performance over a near-identical stretch of time.
And then the comp breaks down, because Trot struggled for another 4 weeks before turning on the afterburners. Jeter:
.383 / .509 / .787, 59 PA since being sent down after his 0/4 debut, including last night.
Apparently, no one has asked anyone the obvious questions: did someone fix his swing while he was in Boston for a day? Did Cora or someone else give him great advice of some sort?
I had to look up where he's ranked now ... 21! That is way too low.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 9, 2022 22:45:02 GMT -5
Verdugo is so money......You can't get rid of him. 1.062 Win Probability Added. Given that the team starts the game with .500, that's single-handedly turning a loss into a win. He had .307 coming into that PA; the Ref and Downs singles in that inning totaled .285.
As of June 17th, -1.72 WPA in 251 PA.
Since then, +1.85 in 80 PA.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 9, 2022 22:20:27 GMT -5
Not a bad time for the very first big late-inning comeback of the entire season so far.
(19.1% win chance in the bottom of 8th with two outs and bases empty, .181 after Rizzo's double.)
How many other people said to themselves, hey, Jeter is now the winning run! Everybody?
How many people thought it would take five more pitches?
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 6, 2022 5:27:37 GMT -5
Well, this is interesting.
I looked at how each of the 36 hitters Winck has faced in his 4 excellent starts have fared against him. And it's not a normal distribution.
Granted, it's 2 or 3 PA for each guy ... but there's no one with an xwOBA between .315 and .351.
14 guys have combined for a .391 wOBA and a .459 xwOBA.
The other 22 guys have combined for .187 / .142.
So, the first group has to be good hitters and the second ones bad, correct?
Here are the same two figures for each group, collectively for the season (weighted of course by how many times Wink faced each guy)
.301 / .319 guys who raked .297 / .319 guys he owned.
So there's zero difference in quality between the guys who've had his number and the guys he dominated.
Among guys who have faced him 3 times, there's no significant correlation between how they've fared on the season (using wxOBA) and against Winck (r = .12, p = .60). The quality of the hitter explains 1% of the results.
Guys who have faced him 2 times, it's r = .05, p = .86.
If you use wOBA rather than xwOBA to measure hitting skill, the correlations are stronger, which immediately suggests that a lot of the difference between the two stats is for real. But it's still not significant; r = .19, p = .42 for the 3 PA guys, r = .28, p = .29 for the 2 PA guys.
Now, in the long run there will of course be a correlation between how good the hitters are and how well a given pitcher fares against them. Better pitchers tend to flatten that relationship. What these numbers suggest is that Winck is showing the pattern of a good pitcher, so four starts is too small a sample to show the expected correlation.
He has collectively faced weak hitters. You have to add .010 to his xwOBA and .012 to his wOBA to adjust for that. When you do that, he's .283 in both stats.
There are exactly 150 starting pitchers with 150 BFP.
With the adjustment, Winck is tied for 17th in xwOBA and is tied for 40th in wOBA. The latter is still pitching like a #2 starter (top 45), adjusted for quality of the hitters.
The average of these 150 starters is .315 / .334, and the difference is successful defensive positioning. The Sox lead MLB in the difference, last time I checked. It's unclear whether he's actually been unlucky on balls in play, or whether his ability to get legit week contact negates (in whole or in part) the value of having good defenders. The latter does make some sense, and can be looked at with the numbers ...
Re the first finding, it could well be random. But it could be that a certain type of hitter hits him well and its opposite type doesn't ... but the the type would have to have little or no relationship to quality. If this patterns keeps up, I'll look into it.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 6, 2022 3:38:11 GMT -5
The Robles DFA also opens up a 40-man spot for Sale five days from now. Danish is the obvious guy to option. He and Valdez are nice pieces to have at Worcester for the occasional call-up. Paxton and (at some point) Casas are only guys that seems likely to be further additions. R. Hernandez appears to be the most disposable guy. For a proposed second body, see below.
I pointed out a while ago that when Kiké comes back, it's hard to see them optioning Duran or trading Arroyo, so they may need to operate with a 12-man staff as long as all the position players are healthy. But in practice, it's very unusual for everyone on the 26 to be healthy, so you can still budget for 13 pitchers.
Who would be the 12 / 13? To stat with, Sale, Pivetta, Eovaldi, Wacha, Winkowski; Houck, Whitlock, Schreiber, Brasier (who's been lights-out since late May, something I missed in an earlier version of this). That leaves Hill, Barnes, Sawamura, and the three LHR for three + one spots.
Hill has not been good in his first inning, especially at home which best simulates a relief appearance (warming up and going right into the game). He was lights out in 2020-21, though ... but his value for both the 26-man and in the org is fading given all the starting depth in AAA. There have to be contenders where he'd be an upgrade as a 5th or 6th starter. Trade him for a guy that has been undervalued by his org in the classic Rays / Bloom Sox fashion.
That leaves the 3 LHR and Sawamura, with the hope that Barnes supplants Sawamura in the depth chart and forces him to AAA at times (when very few pitchers are on the IL), as solid as he is.
Here's the crazy thing about the org at present. Let's say that a reliever or position player is on the IL, allowing Duran to stay in the show.
Pitchers on the 40 man you could call up and that would be be useful:
Sawamura Crawford Bello Seabold
Danish Valdez
Hitters: Downs (.343 / .500 / .600 in his 11 G / 46 PA since his thimble-full of coffee)
Casas will give them just enough position player depth to get by ... but when will he be ready?
Some things I could see them doing:
1) Trade Diekman and acquire a lights-out LR
2) Trade Danish or Valdez and acquire an extra position player, or to open up a 40-man spot for Fitzgerald
3) Something no one has thought of that makes excellent sense.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 6, 2022 0:52:29 GMT -5
Tonight is worth it if it gets Robles off the team Bloom has consistently shown he’s slow to DFA and usually they only do it when they run out of room on the 40. And the next move will certainly be Barnes to the 60 to kick the can down the road. So maybe Taylor is ready tomorrow and they do it for Sale next week? I’m just not sure we’ll see the Kelly for Robles swap everybody wants to see based on how Bloom has run it the last few years Taylor has pitched just once in relief in his current rehab (as opposed to opening), on Saturday, when he allowed 3 hits and 2 runs to AA hitters. In this rehab stint he's faced 29 hitters and fanned 4, which is a lousy rate for MLB, let alone AA and AAA. I don't think he can be factored into any roster projection.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 6, 2022 0:36:34 GMT -5
Meanwhile, the Yankees, Jays, and Guardians all lost. And it's up to Bello (and the bats) to prevent three straight series losses after 7 straight wins, including 3 sweeps.
The previous funk was 8 games at the of May, when they went 3-5 after turning the season around with a 9-2 or 10-3 stretch. They then went 19-4 while taking the 7 series. This stretch is now 3-5.
The last funk was strange; they won the 3 games by an average score of 11.0 to 4.0, while losing 5 by 2.4 to 6.2. They were 0-1 in 1-run games and 1-2 in 2-run games.
In this stretch they've won 3 by an average score of 4.7 to 2.3, and lost 5 by 3.4 to 6.0. They are 1-2 in 1-run games and 1-1 in 2-run games.
Of course, it they win the rubber game, then it's a 1-4 skid followed by 3-1 streak, and all of the above is tossed out. Let's do that!
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 5, 2022 3:56:29 GMT -5
Here's a puzzle:
How can a Sox prospect rank 12th in MLB among 141 SP in xwOBA (minimum 75 BFP) since June 1, and 29th in wOBA ...
And go a year without anyone posting in his thread?
It's only four starts, but is it possible for someone who has a "ceiling of a back-end starter" to pitch like a #2 in his first four MLB starts after his nerve-wracked debut? His expected slash line is .247 / .276 / .352.
Can the scouting dudes opine how much of this real? I note with interest (since I had completely forgotten about it) that I concluded last May 31 that he had a BABIP skill, and that's exactly what we've seen so far.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 4, 2022 23:10:14 GMT -5
Is this likely to be a short piggy-back-style start or will they send him out looking to get ~5 innings (optimally, obviously)? I see no reason as to why he'd pitch other than he as been pitching.
On regular rest for the Woo, he's gone 5, 5, 5.2, 5.1, and has thrown 86, 93, 101, and 84 pitches.
This will be his 3rd straight start on regular rest. Last (and only) time he did that was June 14, 2019.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 4, 2022 22:55:50 GMT -5
True, poor performance is a lot more to blame. However, when Robles and Danish number 2 and 3 in appearances in the ninth inning, I think there's a lot of head scratching there. I agree to the extent that I'm surprised Schreiber wasn't given a shot as closer and Houck was given the 1 inning closer role instead of keeping him in the multi inning role. I see Schreiber in the 7th often and wonder why it's not the 9th, so yeah we see Robles and Danish in the 8th inning or later. I do think eventually they get a closer, and rotate Whitlock and Houck for the 7th and 8th innings, along with Schreiber being a 7th or 8th inning option as well in tandem with Strahm. That should stabilize the late innings and keep Robles, Danish, and Brasier away from those innings. I do agree with your overall point about the 9th. While blown saves stats are flawed because a lot of them are blown holds, the Sox have been wretched in the 9th. I figured their ERA that inning was high and I think the 9th inning save percentage is probably poor. The ERA above 6 probably isnt too much higher than I thought it was. I think the relief prior to the 9th has been good and would explain why the overall bullpen ERA has been good despite the many 9th inning misadventures, but like you said, a bunch of wins were left on the table and were turned into losses. I do think that can improve. In the 9th Sox relievers are 28th in wOBA and 30th (a/k/a/"last) in xwOBA. They are 22nd and 23rd in extras.
In the 7th and 8th innings they are 9th and 14th.
They are 2nd and 18th (!) in innings 1-6.
And I typed this, the Jays lost to the A's 5-1. With the Guardians losing twice to the Tigers, we are now 1.5 up on the Jays, 2 up on the Rays, and 4 up on the Guardians.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 4, 2022 22:31:24 GMT -5
When was the last time we had a BA top 50 starting pitching prospect make his debut? Anyone since Owens back in 2015?
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 4, 2022 17:04:03 GMT -5
How strange is it that, in a year where we have insane organizational SP depth ... that we have to use all of it? Pitchers currently hurt have started 61% of our games. And that's factoring in ... that they've been hurt!
Sale, Eovaldi, Paxton, Wacha, Hill, Whitlock. A formidable rotation! And they're all unavailable at present.
Leaving us with Pivetta and Winckoswki, Crawford, Seabold, and, next up, Bello.
Combined line for the last three outings: 15.1 14 3 2 4 18. That's a 1.17 ERA.
Revised rotation projection (italics are subject to change based on how guys fare in the interim):
Yankees Winckowsi Wacha or Seabold. They can recall Seabold if Wacha has to go on the IL, which I think is likelier than not. Crawford Pivetta
@ Rays Sale
Winkowski or Bello 5 Bello 6 or Winckowski 5 Wacha 5 or Crawford
@ Yankees Pivetta Sale Winckowski, Bello Crawford, Eovaldi
They might also give Pivetta and Sale an extra day in the final series, if Wacha or Eovaldi is able to pitch by then.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 3, 2022 11:35:22 GMT -5
Latest rotation guess: Rays Wacha 5 Pivetta 5 Bello, Sale 5, or Murphy 5.
Sale is scheduled to pitch for Woo, on Bello's regular-rest day. Murphy is available because his regular turn on Tuesday falls on an off day. He would, however, fill a 40-man spot the rest of the year, prematurely (he needs to be added this year), and given all the guys on the 60-day IL, that seems very unlikely. If Sale starts in MLB, Murphy starts for Woo and then Bello would get an extra day there.
It would be something else if Bello, Winckowski, and Seabold pitched on successive days in this crucial stretch. That was not in the original plan, I suspect.
Yankees Winckowsi Seabold Wacha Pivetta
@ Rays Sale
Winckowski Seabold or hopefully Eovaldi Wacha
@ Yankees Pivetta Sale Winckowski
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 2, 2022 16:59:57 GMT -5
As rumored a few days ago. A big vote of confidence in Winck.
Tomorrow's starter is still TBD. They're either waiting to see how Sale feels while considering skipping Sale's last rehab start, or waiting to see if Wacha is ready to go on regular rest. Maybe both.
I would be all for this, too. Bring Sale up and let him rip for 4-5 innings. If he’s feeling strong, why waste pitches in the minors? Eovaldi is out, Whitlock is coming back as a reliever, and your #7 starter Seabold may be needed to take Hill's next start, and they are playing their division rivals. No way they're wasting Sale's next start in AAA, especially since they can give him an extra day.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 2, 2022 16:49:56 GMT -5
I believe I read it might be Seabold? I could be very wrong No way the skip Sale. Sox are going to be conservative. I’d say Seabold. Wink stays for now. And if Hill can’t go maybe we get to se Bello Both the Sox official site and ESPN have TBD. Another possible reason they're waiting is that they're thinking of a bullpen game if they don't use it much tonight. Pivetta goes on Monday and he's averaged 7 IP a start over his last 4 games and 6.2 over his last 9.
ESPN has Wacha for game 1 but they're just guessing because he hasn't been named yet for tomorrow. If they give Pivetta an extra day now, he's pitching the same day as Sale. But maybe they do want to give him extra rest ....
Rays Wacha 5
Pivetta 5 Hill (?) or Sale 5
Yankees Winkowsi
TBD or Hill 6
Wacha Sale or Pivetta
Rays Pivetta 5 or Sale
The version in italics isn't bad.
Re Sale, he's going to pitch 5 innings in either AAA or MLB. If you trust him not to do too much, there's nothing to be conservative about. All he has to do to make it worthwhile is be better than Seabold or whoever else.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 2, 2022 12:32:47 GMT -5
Just read on Yahoo that Cora says Whitlock will come back as a reliever. As rumored a few days ago. A big vote of confidence in Winck.
Tomorrow's starter is still TBD. They're either waiting to see how Sale feels while considering skipping Sale's last rehab start, or waiting to see if Wacha is ready to go on regular rest. Maybe both.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 2, 2022 12:20:23 GMT -5
Awesome, yet sobering, analysis. But then again, we spent the entire first half of the Celtics season with the same issue and that turned out fine. The optimist in me says that they are a few small parts away from fixing this rather than needing a big splash at the deadline. I actually agree completely. To begin with, the lack of clutch hitting is not predictive.
And you could well ask how, in heck did they go 31-11 (including 7-2 against contenders) in that awesome stretch without ever coming back from a significant deficit? While looking at the Win Probability graph at Fangraphs of every game I noticed that they had done really well when games were close (within 1 run or tied) after 6 innings. They scored runs and the front-line relievers pitched well.
Robles has the 11th highest average Leverage when starting an inning (inLi) of any qualified reliever at Fangraphs. He also has the third worst Win Probability Added (of anyone), at -1.64. If you graphed that against inLI, he'd be by himself in a corner.
I think it very likely that the Sox are talking David Robertson and Daniel Bard (8th and 9th in leverage-adjusted WPA, all relievers with inLI > 1.0; Schreiber is 4th) as we type. I don't know how many other contenders (if any) badly need a RHR right now, and we have so much interesting prospect depth that we must have some guys we think are somewhat overrated.
I don't see a reason why one of them shouldn't be in a Sox uni for the homestand. If Barnes comes back in July and we have a surplus of good pitchers ... you can always sell someone at the deadline.
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 2, 2022 5:00:24 GMT -5
Most telling team stat so far:
The Sox are 43-34 ... but ...
They are 50-27 at being the first team to establish a 75% chance of winning.
Keep in mind that good teams almost always have more wins after being down below 25% than they have losses after being up 75%. Asking for the team to simply break even in coming back from a deficit / holding on to a lead is a very modest request. But if the Sox had managed that, they would have the second-best record in MLB and they'd be just 6 games behind the Yankees.
And it's actually been worst than that. On April 26th in Toronto they had a .179 win chance after the Jays got the leadoff man on in the top of the 7th, leading 2-1. The Sox put up a 4-spot in the 8th and pushed their win chance to .968.
On June 28th in Toronto they had a .135 win chance with 2 outs an a runner on in the top of the 7th when Refsnyder went yard, and they got their win chance up to .837 when Devers drew a 1-out walk in the top of the 9th.
Those were the only two times this season when they rallied in the 7th or later after being down below .250. And of course you know what happened ... they lost both games. The Sox have been below .250 starting the 7th (or while batting in the top of the inning) 21 times and have yet to win.
Overall, they've lost 13 games where they had >.750 (including the two where they were <.250 earlier) while rallying after<.250 and winning just 4 times. But the losses have been more severe; they've blown four >.910 while winning none. If you factor that in, they're 8 wins below average in clutch rather than 7.
Yes, the batting splits reflect this; they have a 95 OPS+ relative to league Late and Close, for instance.
Here's another fun split, OPS+ by outs, hitters-opponents (i.e., hitters, pitchers)
0 0ut 128-88 (+40)
1 out 111-94 (+17)
2 out 90-100 (-10)
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 1, 2022 11:17:19 GMT -5
Sunday's TBD should be Wacha on regular rest. Not sure why they haven't committed to that. Last thing we need now is someone who can't take their regulat turn, scramlbling the whole rotation.
If it is Wacha, you get the following for the homestand (4 days rest unless noted)
Rays Pivetta Seabold 7 or someone else (but not Bello, who would be on 3) Hill Yankees Winkowsi Wacha Pivetta Sale (assuming one more rehab start on the 5th)
Note that in this series, Hill is going on 4 days rest and Wink on 6. They appear to have done that to get Wink against the MFY's and Hill against the Rays. There was talk after Wednesday's same that Whitlock would be coming as a reliever. That suggests that Wink is in the rotation until Eovaldi returns--at least.
Alternate version with Seabold on Sunday
Rays Pivetta Sale Hill (or Wacha 6)
Yankees Wacha 7 (or Hill 5)
Winkowsi 5
Pivetta Sale
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 1, 2022 3:27:03 GMT -5
Sunday's TBD should be Wacha on regular rest. Not sure why they haven't committed to that. Last thing we need now is someone who can't take their regulat turn, scramlbling the whole rotation.
If it is Wacha, you get the following for the homestand (4 days rest unless noted)
Rays Pivetta Seabold 7 or someone else (but not Bello, who would be on 3) Hill
Yankees Winkowsi Wacha Pivetta Sale (assuming one more rehab start on the 5th)
Note that in this series, Hill is going on 4 days rest and Wink on 6. They appear to have done that to get Wink against the MFY's and Hill against the Rays.
There was talk after Wednesday's same that Whitlock would be coming as a reliever. That suggests that Wink is in the rotation until Eovaldi returns--at least.
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 1, 2022 3:11:20 GMT -5
DD traded A LOT of minor league inventory and unequivocally won almost all of those trades. He's already lost the Sale trade 15.3 WAR to 14.5, and Kopech and Moncada have 6 years of original control left between them (3.5 and 2.5). That's going to be a massive loss. In 2018 Sale missed the equivalent of 9 starts due to injury and had a 4.11 ERA in the post-season, so (given our final division lead) it's hard to say that he made a difference in winning the WS, when compared to a less costly acquisition.
Margot is at 11.4 WAR with 1.5 years of original control left. Kimbrel had 6.5 for the Sox. In the 2018 post-season he gave up 7 R/ER in 11 IP, with 9 hits, and 10 BB or HBP versus 10 SO. Another complete non-factor in the WS win, versus a less costly acquisition.
In Sale's case, the team never addressed his consistent, annual late-season decline which reduced him to a #3 starter in August and beyond. In 2018 the same factors that had led him to decline instead produced injury, it seems.
Kimbrel was coming off an off year and the trade doesn't make sense unless you knew why it happened and how to fix it. What we got was two more off years sandwiched around a sole classic Kimbrel year.
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