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Post by James Dunne on Apr 11, 2024 14:29:39 GMT -5
I will be at the Syracuse-Worcester game tonight if the weather permits. (Looks like a very big "if" at the moment) There is a window on the radar big enough to at least start the game. Ball should be carrying well to RF tonight. Would like to see Fitts tonight, but I might wait until the weekend to catch a game. Looks clear until about 8:00... hopefully it turns on the later side and Fitts gets a full start in.
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Post by James Dunne on Apr 11, 2024 14:27:02 GMT -5
I'll start worrying about Rafaela when Devers begins to hit. Devers has both OBP and SLG above league average despite a BABIP that's 150 points below his career average. He's got a .211 Iso and more walks than strikeouts. He is not someone I am concerned about.
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Post by James Dunne on Apr 11, 2024 12:14:30 GMT -5
I love Rafa but to me the young bat they should’ve extended is Casas. Before Bello, CR or Crawford, Houck etc Sure, but you can't always do these things in order. If Casas is looking for bigger money, it doesn't make sense to wait around and miss out on good deals while they figure it out.
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Post by James Dunne on Apr 11, 2024 8:11:41 GMT -5
I will be at the Syracuse-Worcester game tonight if the weather permits.
(Looks like a very big "if" at the moment)
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Post by James Dunne on Apr 10, 2024 15:15:35 GMT -5
"Yoán Moncada To Miss Three To Six Months Due To Adductor Strain" - oof So... that's probably sign that his MRI showed a tear, right? Is there a doctor in the house? It feels like anything more than four months would indicate a tear.
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Post by James Dunne on Apr 10, 2024 11:21:14 GMT -5
My response may have been harsh - I tend to react harshly at the idea of penalizing players (or any labor!) by not paying their contracts. I think it's unfair to players and I think it creates perverse incentives for management.
In any case, the downside for the player is that they don't make it to the majors, or they don't last long, or they don't succeed if they do. The players in the minor leagues who are separating themselves or breaking out are the ones whose metrics test well. Sure, there are going to be the guys whose performance and athleticism and everything is just so standout that they're going to be top prospects. But when we're getting into that next tier, the reason guys like Christopher Troye and Alex Hoppe are exciting is because of their measurable stuff. Are those things going to end up leading to injuries? We don't know, but the alternative for them dialing back is that they don't make it to the majors. Should their continued hard work lead to them losing their contracts? I certainly don't think so.
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Post by James Dunne on Apr 10, 2024 10:07:21 GMT -5
There’s no downside to it. The downside is that players don't get paid millions of dollars that is due to them. The downside is that players hide their injuries because they'll stop being paid if they'll report them. The downside is that teams care less, rather than more, about protecting their players, because they can cut their losses on an injured guy. The downside is that a player who has to choose between being a pitcher and a shortstop, between a pitcher and a basketball player, between a pitcher and a carpenter is going to NOT choose the one that is likely to lead to them not getting paid. The downside is that not paying guys who have worked their ass off to become the best in the world are suddenly blamed for working so hard. The downside is that owners are actually INCENTIVIZED to sign higher-risk players because they'll be easier to just not pay when they're hurt. The downside is that richer teams get even richer, because they can afford those funny-money contracts because they don't have to worry about the risk. The downside is that a player who takes a line drive off the knee is suddenly out of a paycheck, which is, to me, a really sh*tty suggestion. But yeah, other than that, no downside.
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Post by James Dunne on Apr 10, 2024 8:21:10 GMT -5
I'm mustering mild positivity about this extension, but I'll be honest: I find it a little odd to commit $50 million to a guy who hasn't yet proven he can hit at all in the major leagues, and about whom serious questions remain in that department. I'm choosing to take this as a good sign that they're confident the bat will prove out. And the risk here is not *that* high. But... <gulp>. To me, he profiles so well as a backup that there's just not much downside there. Even if he doesn't hit at all, to the point where he's confined to the bench (and I'm one of those people who is concerned that's a real possibility!), the versatility and defense play. He's probably putting up 0.5 to 1.0 WAR seasons on the bench. It's just hard to see a Chris Singleton type of situation where it's just a total loss.
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Post by James Dunne on Apr 10, 2024 7:39:33 GMT -5
Want serious change? Make contracts non-guaranteed. If you go on the 60-day DL you get paid the league minimum. Sounds like a good way to punish players for getting hurt while incentivizing teams to start overpushing guys they'd prefer to just not pay anymore.
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Post by James Dunne on Apr 9, 2024 18:36:03 GMT -5
Fortunately it's being reported as an adductor strain. I say "fortunately" because that looked for all the world like a blown ACL.
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Post by James Dunne on Apr 9, 2024 16:00:27 GMT -5
Serious question. How vulnerable is Cora's position? Sure, the roster is not his fault. Thinness, lack of pitching, injuries. But - we've seen a bit of iffy baserunning. We've seen a lot of bad defense. If Story's injury - and Pivetta's - are a catalyst for collapsing team, how safe will Cora be? The offense today is beyond anemic, too. They're 7-4 Yes, but have you considered that they struggled today against Corbin Burnes, a result that could only occur due to poor managerial decisions?
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Post by James Dunne on Apr 9, 2024 10:46:20 GMT -5
Romy has played 417 MLB innings at 2B in his career, like 85 in the OF, and less than 50 at other infield spots. Are we about to see a double L/R middle-infield platoon until they figure what they want do with Rafaela (or when Grissom returns?) That would be uh… something. Vs R - SS Hamilton 2B Valdez Vs L - SS Reyes 2B Romy Just a bummer that Bobby went from a fun if very flawed player to just unplayable. You’d like to think if you replayed his career over again there’s a universe where he’s an effective bench or platoon guy, but it just never clicked after 2021. It is very difficult to stay sharp with limited playing time, which is why it frustrates me so much that people are always so ready to move Refsnyder for someone with more perceived upside. Dalbec is an easy guy to like - good work ethic, good teammate, all of that stuff. It stinks that it hasn't worked out for him, but it's really hard to see him getting another chance in Boston and equally hard to see it working. Since the start of 2021, he's hit just .225/.287/.427 - and what's even more difficult is that almost all of that production came inside of a 32-game stretch from 8/11/21 to 9/21/21 where he hit .333/.434/.814 in 118 PA. Outside of that stretch, he's hit .209/.265/.370 with 281 strikeouts in 690 PA. The flaws have always been there, but major league pitchers have also largely succeeded in limiting his power production, which is really what's made him so ineffective.
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Post by James Dunne on Apr 8, 2024 13:49:36 GMT -5
There is nothing in Rafaela's profile, history, or makeup to suggest that he'd struggle to deal with a position change. The problem with Hernandez's position change wasn't the mental game or whatever, it's that he was a pretty mediocre shortstop. There is nothing in his profile at the major league level at SS. This isn't Portland or Worcester. And it's not as if he's won the position coming out of camp - there's already a narrative that the poor defense at SS could sink the pitching gains and ruin the entire season. But, hey, he handled the pressure cooker in Worcester, so there's no reason he'll falter in Boston. All I'm saying is, y ou're risking his development as a big leaguer for merely possible short term benefit and I wouldn't do it. I disagree with the bolded very strongly! You're moving him from a position where he's comfortable and great to a position of more need where he's comfortable and very good. What prospect in the history of ever got screwed up because he was put at a position he knew how to play?
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Post by James Dunne on Apr 8, 2024 13:11:22 GMT -5
I hear your point about CF defense, but Rafaela is far and away a better defensive SS than Kiké ever wish heâd be. Right now, heâs the best in house option and honestly I donât think it would be a huge impact on CF if youâre plugging Duran or OâNeill out there for the time being. Maybe true - but Kiké also had tons of big league experience to draw from in a) handling the pressure and b) dealing with a position change. Rafaela has no experience of either at the big league level. And when you're going through trouble in the field, it often leads to issues at the plate. It feels reckless to me. There is nothing in Rafaela's profile, history, or makeup to suggest that he'd struggle to deal with a position change. The problem with Hernandez's position change wasn't the mental game or whatever, it's that he was a pretty mediocre shortstop.
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Post by James Dunne on Apr 5, 2024 11:54:36 GMT -5
These late night West coast games are killing my sanity. Only two more late games! Looking at the MFY-Blue Jays 1PM game, the Jays offense really doesn't look dynamic. With a poor farm system, aging high paid guys and young stars not blossoming this could be the AL East bottom feeders for the next few years. Justin Turner is carrying their team. Checkout their lineup below, Kiermaier is hitting 6th. Baseball is more fun when the Centre is bumping. Today's Lineup: 1. Springer 2. Guerrero Jr. 3. Bichette 4. Turner 5. Schneider 6. Kiermaier 7. Kirk 8. Varsho 9. Kiner-Falefa The lineup isn't scary, but the second half is all guys who you're consciously willing to sacrifice offense for defense. That's got to be baseball's best defensive outfield by a fair margin.
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Post by James Dunne on Apr 5, 2024 10:02:45 GMT -5
Kind of a bummer to me seeing Yorke drop to 11, not that I disagree with it but I still think he can be a solid ML 2nd baseman. Repeating AA after a full season isn't the greatest of signs even if part of it might be related to Grissom going to be there when his rehab assignment starts up. Hopefully Yorke can get some momentum back this season. Feels to me less like Yorke dropped than the system got deeper above him. I'm good with that. It's a little of both. Cespedes and Fitts have moved up, but you'll also note that we lowered Yorke's ceiling grade.
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Post by James Dunne on Apr 4, 2024 15:20:02 GMT -5
How shocked would anyone be if the pitchers starting for the Red Sox in this series were the three best pitchers at the end of the Season? Shocked would be much too strong of a word, but yes I would be at least surprised if all three of them turned out to be better than Pivetta and Bello.
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Post by James Dunne on Apr 4, 2024 15:07:16 GMT -5
Watched both angles in the embedded video - in the first clip where they switch cameras my median was 4.78, second one which stays with the overhead view it was 5.01... so I think there actually may be a 1/4 second difference between cameras.
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Post by James Dunne on Apr 4, 2024 14:03:06 GMT -5
"There's a lot to be said for nowhere."
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Post by James Dunne on Apr 4, 2024 12:52:47 GMT -5
I was blown away by this. I had never considered Chicago to be a great guitarist band but whoa... ADD: I was curious so I Googled it: What did Hendrix say about Kath? Like pretty much everyone who came to see the band perform, Hendrix was mesmerised by Kath's guitar playing, going so far as to claim that he thought the Chicago guitarist played six strings better than he did, naming Kath the “best guitarist in the universe”. High praise indeed. It is pretty jarring to hear Chicago's early stuff, which is pretty rockin' and inventive, lined up against schlocky garbage like "You're the Inspiration." Ugh.
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Post by James Dunne on Apr 4, 2024 11:02:00 GMT -5
Maybe Worcester will get a window tomorrow, but I'm not liking Portland's chances.
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Post by James Dunne on Apr 3, 2024 13:12:16 GMT -5
Indeed. While the Frinkiac post did immediately follow yours, it was not meant as a response to that but rather to some of the rest of the discussion speaking more broadly about the type of players the team should be looking at (including at least one response about why Wiggins wasn't a fit specifically because of type).
Again, this is probably a bit a bit reductive, but: Good: Identifying the player who is good, and speaking about the traits that make that player good, traits which will almost inevitably fit a type; Bad: Identifying the type of player you like and then finding players who fit that.
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Post by James Dunne on Apr 3, 2024 11:06:55 GMT -5
]Given the recently draft and development history, and how Breslow has already mentioned a desire to infuse the system with pitching talent, I agree with all of this. I understand the general principle of Player> Profile, I just don't fully agree with that as I would with the "best player available" axiom. Player profiles generally are tied to bonus potential, and teams are certainly considering that as part of their draft process. If you find a player that carries conviction from the scouting staff and fits a profile you can reasonably accommodate from a bonus standpoint, then how is the profile not part of the criteria which helps you stack your draft board? NC State C Jake Cozart would be a great pick in the 1st round IMO. Profile wise, they took a similar player in Teel in a similar spot last year. Would the profile over player warrant any discussions in this case? That's a specific player, though. You're not talking about Cozart as an abstraction, you're talking about him as a baseball player who is really good. That's a big difference than saying "the Red Sox should target a catcher" and THEN landing on Cozart, which is a wrong approach. Best player doesn't mean ignoring the profile entirely, it means that you don't lead with a profile to narrow down your pick. Like, if one guy is a better hitter and a first baseman only, and the other guy is a shortstop with a broader range of skills, you may determine that the second guy is better. But if you go in thinking "you need to draft a shortstop with a broad range of skills" then you miss a Tristan Casas, who wouldn't necessarily fit a standard exciting profile (other than being really good at hitting). I'll also say this - if the way you grade players means that you're never landing on pitchers (which is what's happened with the Red Sox in the last several seasons), then that needs to be re-evaluated as well. But even still, the above post about how the Red Sox needs to specifically target high-velocity pitchers in rounds two and three... that's MUCH too profile-focuses, specific, and limiting.
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Post by James Dunne on Apr 3, 2024 10:42:46 GMT -5
The Red Sox have a 92 wRC+, .106 ISO, and 27.6% K Rate. They’ve faced some great pitching aside from game 5 so it’s not a big concern, but I would love to see them mash long ball prone Ross Stripling today. Casas, Story, Yoshida, Abreu, Rafaela, Wong (among others) are currently on pace for 0 home runs, which is a concern if it holds all season. Story's on pace for 82 doubles though!
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Post by James Dunne on Apr 3, 2024 8:55:29 GMT -5
You cannot take his glove out of the lineup. The Sox likely lose last night if Rafaela is not in CF to make that catch in the 11th. If all else is equal, another guy might not make that catch. But maybe another guy doesn't pop out with the bases loaded in the third, and then pop out again swinging at the first pitch right after Casas walks in the sixth, and then hit soft lineout to shortstop trying to pull an outside changeup with the bases loaded in the 7th. Now that Rafaela is a decent-but-flawed major leaguer rather than a blank-slate prospect, the frustrating parts of his game are going to come to the surface. And there are frustrating parts of his game. Obviously we need to be patient here, but the worries that people are expressing here aren't new, they're the concerns some people had with him as he came through the system and then again last September.
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