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Post by James Dunne on May 23, 2021 15:32:23 GMT -5
Casas with the three-run homer, #4 of the year.
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Post by James Dunne on May 23, 2021 14:44:11 GMT -5
Duran is also hitless in 7 of his 17 starts, and is currently 0 for 4 today. His hits have come in bunches, and it's going to take a few more weeks to see if he can gain some consistency or if he's just building up stats beating on the worst of Triple-A pitching.
I also need to see him on the road a little more. Polar Park has been playing extremely hitter-friendly on some nights. His Iso is .130 on the road and .500 (not a typo) at home.
Also, too - there is a tendency with equating being fast with being a good defensive player. He has upside for certain but he is not there yet.
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Post by James Dunne on May 22, 2021 14:21:45 GMT -5
I'll add to that, versatility itself isn't an end. If you've got guys you can shift around the field because you want to platoon a right fielder and a first baseman, or maybe like the Dodgers have done where they have an offense-first arrangement and then a defense-first one, then that's great. But at some point, choosing players because of how many positions they play instead of how good they are and moving all those players around is just rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. Keeping Chavis over Dalbec would be kinda that. You wouldn't want Chavis hitting instead of Dalbec when all else was equal (maybe if you have a soft-tossing RHP there's an exception). And, while Chavis can ostensibly play more positions than Dalbec, Chavis isn't better than anyone on the roster at any of those positions. Like Chris said, Marwin Gonzalez and Danny Santana can both do all of the things Chavis can do and complement the rest of the roster better.
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Post by James Dunne on May 21, 2021 12:41:17 GMT -5
From Keith Law's chat today: I wonder if that means they'd prefer college over any high school - as in they'd take any of those three over both Mayer and Lawlar - or if it just means they'd take any of those three over any of the HS guys that aren't universally regarded as top-4 picks. Yeah, I was thinking there are two ways to read into this: either he thinks Lawlar and Mayer are off the board at #4 and that Boston will go college (seems very likely if that's the case), or that they'd prefer Lawlar and Mayer to be off the board and that one of the top two college players will be there.
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Post by James Dunne on May 21, 2021 10:19:51 GMT -5
His whole stat line is interesting. Through 59 at-bats, he's barely striking out (6) or walking (3). Looks like he's just trying to put the ball in play and seeing what happens. He's also almost half way to his 2B total from 2019 (11 in 2019 - 5 so far in 2021). He's hitting the ball with a lot more authority.
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Post by James Dunne on May 19, 2021 21:51:47 GMT -5
The surprising part about this is the lack of no-hitters against the Tigers.
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Post by James Dunne on May 19, 2021 11:28:19 GMT -5
I don't really understand the anger over following the "unwritten rules." The way I see it, if you're putting a position player in to pitch, you're basically rolling over and showing your belly. "We don't think we have a chance to come back and win this, let's just get through it and move on to the next day." To me, the classy response to someone waving the white flag is to show appropriate restraint. Personally, my issue with the unwritten rules is how they are enforced. If you want to gently shake your head at a guy swinging 3-0 in a blowout, that’s fine with me. But the punishment is always to throw at a guy (sometimes a different guy than the one who broke the unwritten rules), which seems like a wildly disproportionate response. So there's always been a gamesmanship aspect of the unwritten rules that I've never had a problem with. Thinking of stuff like Jack McKeon complaining about a stolen base when the Red Sox were clobbering the Marlins, or Sabathia getting pissy about a player bunting on him in what wasn't really a sacrifice situation. There's a big difference between throwing a baseball at a person and going on talk radio and calling the other team bush league to get a rise out of them. And, of course, in those situations they are trying to get into their opponents' heads rather than undermining their own team.
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Post by James Dunne on May 18, 2021 20:05:13 GMT -5
This is not meant to discredit Zeferjahn's good work tonight, but Fredericksburg entered tonight hitting .167/.280/.222 as a team, and they are about to be 0-13.
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Post by James Dunne on May 17, 2021 14:54:19 GMT -5
The Red Sox are using their last roster spot incorrectly, that doesn't mean the roster spot itself is not worth something more than replacement value.
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Post by James Dunne on May 17, 2021 13:43:41 GMT -5
So here's a question: at what point does Ohtani have to be the MVP? Is it as simple as adding his aggregate hitting and pitching WAR? Like say he's a 3-win player on both sides of the ball. 6.0 WAR isn't an MVP total... but the fact that he's giving you two players in one roster spot, isn't that IMMENSELY valuable? FWIW, so far this year he's been on pace to be a roughly 4.8-WAR hitter and 2.0-WAR pitcher, per FG, whereas BRef has him at 4.8 and 4.4 WAR. I guess the question is how valuable it is for the team to get those two players out of one roster spot. I really like that question. I guess if Mike Trout or Vlad Jr. or someone gets something around 10-WAR, you still take that over a player who splits 6-WAR between being a two-way player. I don't think simply being a 3.0 WAR pitcher makes up for the 7.0 WAR difference in their production as a position player. Breaking it down, if you consider an average player to be worth about 2.0 WAR, maybe that's a good basis for the value of the roster spot itself. And in my head I think that works, I probably take a 6.0 two-way player over a 7.5 WAR one-way.
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Post by James Dunne on May 17, 2021 12:39:33 GMT -5
MVP Xander Bogaerts CY Young: Nick Pivetta ReOY: Matt Barnes ROY: Garrett Whitlock CPOY: Garrett Richards. Checks out. Would also allow JD Martinez as MVP.
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Post by James Dunne on May 17, 2021 10:04:22 GMT -5
Look at these masterpieces the Marlins are using for the City Connect series.
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Post by James Dunne on May 16, 2021 17:56:02 GMT -5
I'm keeping my eye on Brandon Howlett to see if his early-season re-emergence is real. 2 for 3 with three RBI today to get up to .343/.385/.514. Five of his nine strikeouts came in the first two games of the season. He was really impressive in 2018 after signing but he wore down pretty badly in his first full year in '19.
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Post by James Dunne on May 16, 2021 15:19:35 GMT -5
Groome cruised through three then things fell apart quickly in the fourth. Single, error, homer, walk, out of the game. Suddenly his line went from 3 1 1 1 0 4 to 3 3 4 3 1 4.
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Post by James Dunne on May 14, 2021 23:27:25 GMT -5
Franchy Cordero is getting a major league salary but is living in all your heads rent free. I've been thinking the same thing. He is only still up here because of our current roster construction and injuries. I trust the front office to handle this kid in a way that best serves himself and the team, long term. Trust the process! From all I've heard and read, he is the kind of kid you root for, and not just because he is a Red Sock. Right. He might also be on the roster because they thought he was better than this and now they are recalibrating. Either way. I understood the frustration with Cordero when he was playing nearly every game and frequently going something like 0 for 4 with two strikeouts. I do not understand the inclination to dunk on the last guy on the bench after a thrilling win in which he didn't play.
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Post by James Dunne on May 14, 2021 22:58:23 GMT -5
Franchy Cordero is getting a major league salary but is living in all your heads rent free.
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Post by James Dunne on May 14, 2021 22:23:43 GMT -5
Still do not understand the nitpicking of rocker. He just went 7in 3er 8k 1bb his era is under 2.5 in prob the best conference in NCAA. Where is he falling in the draft? You think a team like bal or under them would let him slip bye. That's some serious crazy talk there. This is so similar to Rodon in '14. He was the consensus #1 for so long that every time he's not near-perfect is a reason to doubt him. You'd never guess reading this thread that his ERA is 2.44 of that he's got a 118 to 25 K/BB in 81 innings. Every time he's given up a homer--he's given up six (6)--is used as a reason he'll fall in the draft. He sits 93 and his slider is the best secondary in the class. I can understand the doubts about his third pitch, and the natural worry of any pitcher. But people seem to have developed these outrageous expectations for him after he established himself as the early frontrunner as top pick. He'd be an awesome get at #4. EDIT: It is also funny to see people bemoaning the fact that Henry Davis, a player that was on nobody's radar two months ago, possibly being unavailable. If he plays himself ahead of these other guys, that's great! If Rocker or Leiter or Lawlar is available because Davis skyrocketed then the Red Sox are better off.
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Post by James Dunne on May 14, 2021 11:54:05 GMT -5
What an age for baseball. 10 years ago, if you saw that three starters had 26 innings, 30 Ks, 39/43, and 21/34, would you think the respective ERAs would be 5.19, 5.03, and 9.00(!)? I just can't get over the fact that the game's biggest problem has been too few balls in play, and MLB responded by changing the ball in a way that has led to... more strikeouts. I disagree with this. They changed the ball in a way that has led to fewer home runs, and teams now need to respond by replacing the types of players whose skills were overemphasized by the superball out of the lineup. There is a whole class of player who was gaining 5 to 8 homers a year from the juiced ball. Now less of a slugging threat, pitchers have less reason to pitch them carefully, so the walks and homers are falling some and the strikeouts go up. The term "empty .300" has been around for awhile, but the key is how good an empty-.300 hitter is compared to the alternative. For instance, let's take a hypothetical .230/.330/.470ish player. 500 AB, 25 2B, 32 HR, 200K, 75 BB. Now, take away seven of those homers and make them fly outs. Pitchers are less careful with him, so he's losing 15 walks. A few of those walks are turning into strikeouts. He puts a few more balls in play and perhaps comes away with a couple singles. Anyhow, it's a short trip to him now being a .225/.300/.410 player. That's worse than the "empty" .300/.340/.370 types. There just hasn't been enough of an adjustment to get there yet.
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Post by James Dunne on May 13, 2021 9:20:48 GMT -5
Meises has 5 hrs and is an outfielder...is he just fodder?...Lots of power from prior seasons. In 250 career AA games he has a .195/.273/.387/.661 slash line with a 32% K rate. Seems like the hit tool just hasn’t been there in the past. Maybe he’s made an adjustment but I’m going to err on the side of caution until we get out of a small sample size . On the positive side, he did end 2019 with a really strong showing in AAA, so maybe he did actually figure something out and turn a corner. Who knows. He also got to Double-A at just 21 and was totally overmatched, so I think the idea he made an adjustment isn't crazy.
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Post by James Dunne on May 13, 2021 9:17:00 GMT -5
Remember the Dan Duquette pitcher development philosophy? Let someone else develop them and we'll sign them! Ahh yes, Dan Duquette and his years of success building winning teams by signing pitchers. The one high-end pitching acquisition that worked (that Pedro dude) was acquired because he had Carl Pavano.
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Post by James Dunne on May 13, 2021 7:57:57 GMT -5
What's that supposed to mean? Jobe should be taxed because he's not facing better competition? You make your pick based on your projections of future performances and these projections, when it comes to pitchers, should be based on their stuff and athleticism more than past performances. - Fastball: Jobe throws harder. - Changeup: Jobe has the edge here too with already an avg pitch with projection - Slider: They both have a 70. You add the fact that Jobe has less wear and tear on his arm (started pitching a year ago) with better athleticism (He was a middle infielder with a entincing bat for College Baseball) and it's easy for me to project who has the higher upside. And BTW, when facing better competition Jobe passed the test with flying colors Look how bad he made Brady House ,a sure fire top 10 pick in this year's draft, look. You make some good points, but 1) a harder fastball is not necessarily a better fastball. Allen Webster threw 100. 2) Rocker has made it through the age 17-21 period throwing hard without blowing out his elbow. Will Jobe?Yeah, this is the most important part. If having less wear were an advantage, high school pitchers would consistently be better gets than college ones. But that's clearly not been the case. Lots of hard-throwing high schoolers end up either getting hurt outright or losing their fastball at like 20. Injuries happen to college pitchers, and sometimes a flaw will be exposed as they climb the ladder, but Rocker is further through the injury nexus than Jobe is. And I don't think saying that Rocker has dominated against better competition is a knock against Jobe, it's a credit to Rocker. The man threw the best-pitched college game I've ever seen. Getting Brady House to half-swing at a pitch two feet outside is nowhere near as impressive as this stuff. He took a top-20 team in the Super-Regionals and they had absolutely no chance: Also, for what it's worth, I am very skeptical that Jobe's slider is anything close to Rocker's. Future value, maybe, but Rocker's slider would work against major leaguers right now. If the Red Sox go a position player over Rocker then I'm fine with it, Boston has been good at developing position players and the risks with Rocker are real. If they go for Jobe over Rocker I'll be kinda furious.
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Post by James Dunne on May 12, 2021 21:03:43 GMT -5
Old friend Stephen Nogosek with the save against Worcester.
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Post by James Dunne on May 12, 2021 20:59:06 GMT -5
On a 3-0 count. A Tatis Jr job. Doesn’t even seem like he got a fastball That kids got mammoth power- and the important thing is that he actually gets to it in the games It looked like a batting practice pitch. And of course that's exactly what you want to see Casas doing with a batting practice pitch.
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Post by James Dunne on May 11, 2021 20:43:02 GMT -5
And Carlos rondon did what exactly before he got hurt? I’m absolutely saying Carlos rondon was the wrong pick because of injury. ( 4 years is roughly what it takes a position player to become an established major league player after being drafted. Established meaning cornerstone ). Carlos rondon has never been .... yet... a cornerstone. ( if he keeps this up he will be after this year and we could have had him in off season when he was WAIVED by the white Sox Look I’m just putting every bit of info I could put there. I’ll let others make their own conclusions. If nothing else I’m saying there is HUGE risk of injury and this becoming another trey ball part 2 He got to the majors 10 months after getting drafted and was like a #3 starter: www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rodonca01.shtmlThe next three picks were Kyle Schwarber, Nick Gordon, and Alex Jackson. Stop treating pitchers as the only ones who have risks and underperformance. And you don't need to post every single day about how you don't want a pitcher, we all get it.
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Post by James Dunne on May 11, 2021 19:41:16 GMT -5
At what point do they remove Groome from the 40 man? He's pitched 8 1/3 innings over four years, it might be sensible to see if he can shake some rust off?
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