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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 12, 2024 13:17:00 GMT -5
That was a little league inning like Youks said.
Bad play in CF. Another runner on 3rd less than 2 outs unscored.
At least Rafaela's bloop fell in.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 12, 2024 13:03:04 GMT -5
I may not have the number *exactly* right, but I believe O'Neill has struck out 935 times with one out and a runner on third. Nope. Wrong...its only 934, lol
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 12, 2024 12:56:51 GMT -5
Another wasted opportunity.
With all the stats around, productive outs would be an interesting one to see. The Sox are probably deficient in that area.
Cant advance a runner if you cant put the ball out into play.
I suspect that's the reason the Sox offensive numbers look fine but they struggle to score runs.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 12, 2024 9:50:49 GMT -5
He'll never play anywhere near the level of that insane contract the Padres offered him, but he will hit. He always has. The season isn't 40 games long. When 162 games are all said and done, assuming health, he'll have contributed with the bat and glove. It just won't be anywhere near to the extent of that ridiculous contract. Every player who "has always hit" reaches a point where they don't anymore. His xwOBA has been trending down since 2021 - perfectly following a typical aging curve - and is at .292 this season.
His wOBA is 48 points worse than his xwOBA and I'm pretty sure that won't keep up, since he always outperforms his xwOBA. But he might be more like an average hitter now than a well above average one.
We'll split the difference. He'll probably be a bit above average for this season and perhaps the next year or two. Not having Fenway to call his home park hurts his numbers. I'm sure his numbers would look better if he were still in Boston and he'd have been a big step up from what they've had since his absence but the Padres went into desperation mode, made Xander and offer he or no other sane person could refuse, and here we are, a player declining from really good to a little bit above average for a crazy amount of money and years. I figured somewhere near 35 he'd be in a tough area to justify the contract season but that was for the 6 year 160 million extension I thought Bloom would offer him in spring of 22. Instead the Padres will pay him more until he's 41. All for a futile attempt to win while the owner was still living. Xander was the recipient of a situation where truly money was no object.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 12, 2024 9:38:26 GMT -5
PAs from players with a wRC+ below 30: Yankees: 6 Rays: 33
Blue Jays: 62 Orioles: 97
Red Sox: 304 Which is how the Red Sox have a team wRC+ of 99 despite having 5 regulars above 130 and two more around 110.
The irony is that the Sox got Smith and Cooper to alleviate that issue, to give them mediocrity instead of absolute putridness. Add in Grissom" poor performance and the problem of too many plate appearances to putridness continues. The Red Sox thought Smith would be mediocre to average, which would be a better gamble that promoting Kavadas who could be Dalbec-ian. Dalbec is simply not a major league caliber hitter. He cant even make contact. There's a big gulf between the gaudy offensive numbers posted as Worcester and the numbers at the big league level. I hate to say it but in some instances they just have to go with it. I think Grissom will hit and hit very well. But I also though he would struggle terribly at the outset not really having had spring training. And he is. Just have to stick with him and eventually he will play his way out of it and will hit. He has just hit too well in his entire minor league career and even in his brief stops in Atlanta to make me think otherwise. As far as Cooper and Smith go, I'd be willing to gamble Kavadas for Smith but would keep all 3 of Smith, Kavadas, and Cooper on the roster and I'd send Hamilton down. I'd give Kavadas some run at the DH spot but be prepared for a scenario where he's striking out on 40% of his ABs. I think Smith could be a useful PH type and spell Cooper who id give the regular 1b ABs to until Casas returns. If Kavadas succeeds they got an interesting DH. If he fails it's back to Smith unless somebody better comes along. Of course with Casas and Yoshida's status so uncertain who knows how long any of this plays out for?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 12, 2024 9:22:56 GMT -5
Did you realize Bogaerts (already moved off SS in his second year in SD) is hitting .209 and has -.3 WAR? Eesh. He'll never play anywhere near the level of that insane contract the Padres offered him, but he will hit. He always has. The season isn't 40 games long. When 162 games are all said and done, assuming health, he'll have contributed with the bat and glove. It just won't be anywhere near to the extent of that ridiculous contract.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 11, 2024 15:31:49 GMT -5
The other factor is that there are less "productive" outs these days because there are about 3 more strikeouts per 9 than there used to be meaning less balls put into play that can move along runners so literally 3 singles needed to score a run more often than just 2 singles.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 11, 2024 12:19:02 GMT -5
It definitely creates an environment where hitting HRs is just about the only way to score because teams can't string hits together so it's swing for the fences or strike out. Starting pitching innings and wins and hitters' batting average and to an extent stolen bases have been marginalized which is too bad. I was really surprised by the OBP - lowest figure in 50+ years so far. I think you’re right that it’s a HR or bust game for offense, and has been since at least the “swing change revolution” stuff ten years ago. But OBP being so low? It’s fascinating in that “moneyball = OBP” was the reductionist mainstream takeaway from what became the analytics wave in baseball. But hit for contact has been devalued so much, that now it’s as hard to get on base as it was when walks weren’t viewed as a positive outcome in the way that they have been throughout the 21st century. It has been, which is a shame. Yes, OBP>BA. No argument. Period. That said, if there's a runner on 2b or 3b I like having a singles hitter up, somebody who can hit for a good batting average. Walks are good but they dont necessarily get the run home. Just creates the next HR or nothing situation for the next guy who will whiff and the runners are stranded and everybody complains about bad luck with runners in scoring position, etc. So while I think batting average isnt as important in the big picture compared to OBP which BA is just a component of and slugging average or whatever else, I think the pendulum has swung too far the other way and at times it's too devalued.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 11, 2024 10:16:58 GMT -5
Something to keep an eye on as warmer weather rolls in: MLB OPS: .697 - lowest since 1989 (.695) MLB BA: .239 - lowest since 1968 (.237) MLB OBP: .312 - tied for lowest (2022) since 1972 (.311) MLB SLG: .385 - lowest since 1992 (.377) Runs per game: 4.34. This is a less anomalous stat that tends to shift up and down with some regularity. However, I did have to go back to 2000 and 2001 to find a larger year-to-year decrease (.36) than the decrease between 2023 and 2024 (.28). All of which is to say, critiquing the low scoring offense or crediting the revamped pitching program is not at all out of line - but - it’s possible that because the current run environment hasn’t really sunk in yet, it’s adding an extra notch or two to either argument. It definitely creates an environment where hitting HRs is just about the only way to score because teams can't string hits together so it's swing for the fences or strike out. Starting pitching innings and wins and hitters' batting average and to an extent stolen bases have been marginalized which is too bad.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 9, 2024 8:15:25 GMT -5
Johanfran Garcia was placed on the full season IL. Brandon Walter transferred to the 60-day IL. That sucks. Garcia is such an intriguing bat. Don't think there are too many catchers in the minors who can hit like he can. That's too bad.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 9, 2024 8:10:38 GMT -5
Well, round 1 of the Sale/Grissom trade clearly goes to Atlanta. He looked good yesterday. Glad to see him doing well, at least while he's still healthy.
That said, I do think eventually Grissom's bat will come around and he'll hit and the trade will work out very well for the Red Sox.
The Red Sox are a middling team as their 19-18 record indicates. The better teams have pretty much had their way with them and the Sox have knocked around the teams they're better than.
The Sox pitching, particularly in the rotation, has been much better than expected, but the offense and defense have been subpar, pretty much negating the amazing pitching.
Eventually the pitching will come back to earth, the question is how hard. The offense should get better. It'll take a bit but a key will be Grissom asserting himself as a hitter, hopefully well enough to take the #2 spot in the order, but he's not there right now. He looks like a guy who hasn't played much this year so far, but if he can start raking, then he and Duran can give them a solid 1-2 and Devers and O'Neill can hit in the middle of the order and hopefully we'll see Casas back and healthy (big if) at some point this year.
My expectation will be that the offense will get relatively better - as right now the Sox are inconsistent in their offense - they'll light up the scoreboard every now and then, but their offense can struggle to score runs for extended stretches, but I think the regression of their pitching will counterbalance that and the Sox will be lucky to tread water.
They're looking like a .500 team that could lose their grip at some point as the season progresses. Even though Cooper and Smith are better than Dalbec, they haven't played much better and they miss Casas' bat and what Story's bat could have been. Cooper and Smith are mediocre, not as bad as they've been, but this is a lineup that can definitely be pitched to.
At this point I can't say that I particularly see the Red Sox making a real challenge for a playoff spot. They're kind of stuck in the middle again.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 6, 2024 23:42:37 GMT -5
Campbell is lower than I would have thought.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 6, 2024 15:52:54 GMT -5
Looking forward to Vaughn Grissom batting against Chris Sale. I am still a Chris Sale fan. I hope Grissom gets two homers and six rbis while facing Sale. Yup, me too, although I'd be fine with a Grissom HR off Sale in a 1-0 victory. My enduring image of Sale will always be of him corkscrewing Machado to the ground for the final out of the 2018 World Series. That superceded everything else. Hope he eventually finds his way back to the Sox in some sort of coaching capacity once his career is over.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 6, 2024 12:07:56 GMT -5
Looking forward to Vaughn Grissom batting against Chris Sale.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 4, 2024 8:25:57 GMT -5
Cespedes is one of BA's top FCL prospects to know. In a couple of years, once Mayer, Anthony, and Teel graduate, Cespedes will probably be the number 1 prospect. He might be, even if all 3 haven't graduated. Have a strong feeling Cespedes will rocket his wat through the system and within 3 to 4 years will be the long term 3b as Devers spends the back half of his contract DHing. My guess is Mayer comes up at some point in 2025 or 2026 and pushes Story to 3b, assuming he ever stays healthy, and then as Story's deal is expiring, Cespedes forces his way to the 3b job, an infield of Casas, Grissom, Mayer, Cespedes, the baseball gods willing. Will it happen like that? Nah, too neat, but it's certainly fun to think about. I'm just super excited about Cespedes. I think if he stays healthy he will be the real deal.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 1, 2024 21:18:57 GMT -5
Excellent win. Crawford had an impressive old time Houckian start - 7 innings pitched, just 2 runs.
Wong and Abreu keep contributing. Very good all around win.
They were 42-31 last season and the season still went belly up, so I'm approaching the 18-13 start with extreme caution. That said, they've been a pleasant surprise and I'm amazed the pitching has done so well. Don't know how long they can keep this up. Just hope when the pitching isn't otherworldly, the bats and the defense will be able to keep them moving in the right direction. They'll also face more tests with more AL East competition, although Toronto is being its chronic underachieving selves and Tampa is not what they were.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 1, 2024 15:11:00 GMT -5
I think it's pretty straight forward. Smith replaces Yoshida while he's on the IL.
I dont think Cora will play it this way, but in a week or so, the lineup against righties could look like this:
CF Duran 2B Grissom 3B Devers LF O'Neill RF Abreu 1B Cooper DH Smith C Wong SS Rafaela
Refsnyder gets in against lefties, likely in RF platooning with Abreu.
Somehow I think Dalbec survives this and perhaps platoons with Smith at DH?
I figure McGuire, Short, and Refsnyder are reserves with space for one more. I'm guessing they keep Dalbec over Hamilton?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 1, 2024 12:05:56 GMT -5
Guess Cooper is going on the IL to make room for Smith? Guessing Hamilton gets sent down to make room for Short. Chris Cotillo reported on Twitter: "Heard from a source this morning that Garrett Cooper is just bruised and is going to be OK after that hit by pitch." But perhaps he needs a day? I was thinking about that. It's probably Yoshida going on the IL and Smith doing some DHing
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 1, 2024 12:02:08 GMT -5
*VermontSox trying to enjoy lunch break* Craig Breslow: "I'M GONNA MAKE 50 MOVES TODAY" Guess Cooper is going on the IL to make room for Smith? Guessing Hamilton gets sent down to make room for Short.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 1, 2024 11:59:07 GMT -5
It's still very early in the season. Lots of time left.
I can still see the team winning 75 games. I can still see the team winning 90.
I was certainly no fan of the Sox not adding pitching other than Giolito and Criswell and had serious reservations about the pen. And was concerned about the defense and didnt think the offense would be enough to compensate.
I'm not big on laud or blame the coaches, and it's not hard to imagine the pitching staff returning to planet Earth with a thud, but that said, how can you not think that Andrew Bailey is the team MVP?
Before he got hurt Pivetta was lights out. Houck is submitting big boy start after big boy start regularly pitching into the 7th inning. Kutter has been great. Bello was solid before his injury. And even Criswell has been damn good.
I'm surprised at how great Slaten has been. Weissert has looked very good. I'm not sure how much of Campbell's awful numbers are due to trying to pitch thru an injury so I can do a mulligan there.
One thing I am correct about so far is O'Neill. I got some snickers when I said he could bat cleanup. I dont think anybody thinks that's far fetched now.
Abreu is hitting much better than I thought he would and his emergence eases the loss of Story as all 3 of Duran, O'Neill and Abreu get to play every day and Cedanne gets to stay in the majors but as a competent SS so that works out. What they're missing is that secondary RH power bat beyond O'Neill which is why I was interested in Soler. Maybe Wong can fill that role in the lineup but as well as he played I know he can wear down so hopefully McGuire stays healthy as both he and Wong have played extremely well. Devers is coming around and Yoshida was until he got hurt and 1b is an injury a day just like SS was. Looking forward to Grissom if he ever makes it back, lol.
If they get Casas back, get healthy, don't beat themselves defensively and with bad baserunning and continue to pitch well, if not historic, then the sky's the limit.
Its encouraging, the best pitching start since 1920, their first year without Babe Ruth where they got off to an excellent start prompting people on this board to declare that the Sox didnt need that flash in the pan Babe Ruth and could win without him (just kidding!!).
The 1920 Sox werent highly regarded coming into the season, pitched lights out in Aoril, and then proceeded to finish under .500, 72-81 I think. Hopefully history doesnt repeat here! So far so good, but it is a long season.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 1, 2024 11:35:56 GMT -5
Took a quick look. Maybe Breslow was familiar with him from 2018 or so if he was with the Cubs then. At least Theo would be familiar with him.
I think it was 2018 or 2019 he had 94 walks in a minor league season. And he has a little bit of pop.
The only thing he can't do is hit, like at all - just a minor thing, lol.
He's probably keeping the backup role middle infield role warm until Romy returns. Maybe they didnt like Hamilton's defense and/or didnt want him sitting on the bench rather than getting regular ABs?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 1, 2024 5:57:38 GMT -5
You are so right, James. Boy, those names bring back memories. Saw them all except Groome and was excited about them all. Remember talking with Kelly's dad, who was in the same business, and they were torn about him being shortstop or a pitcher. Thought he was going to be a good one. You never really can tell when they are so young. Many more did over the years Steve. John Tudor, Don Aase, Bobby Ojeda and I doubt Bruce Hurst would have continued playing the game at all much longer had he not been able to escape to (then) somehat recluse area SD and much closer to his morman roots area Idaho. While never knew Tudor, nor bobby O that well. Hurst was constantly homesick each and every season and was miserable season long. found that out his 1st yr of pro ball and Boston had -0- support system in place. It was up to his fellow players and friends he met along the way to help out. Tudor I remember warming up prior to a ST game once, his very 1st. It was him and the C, who don't recall even was at the time. No coach nearby, no manager. Must have been johnny Mac at the time. Maybe ralph houck. Just don't remember, but a really young kid warming up for probably the biggest game (then) they had ever thrown and not 1 member of the coaching staff was anywhere to be found. must have bee.. 82? 83? Tudor was dealt for Mike Easler after the 1983 season. Houck managed the Sox from 1981 - 1984, so it had to be Houck. McNamara didnt take over until 1985 when Tudor har been traded again, from Pittsburgh to St. Louis where he had the best pitching season, outside of Doc Gooden, that year. FWIW, Hurst later on expressed a lot of regret about leaving Boston for San Diego.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 30, 2024 20:24:11 GMT -5
And this is why you dont cut bait with Dalbec.. Meh. They could sign Cron. They could sign Belt. They all can't get injured, can they?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 30, 2024 11:32:11 GMT -5
I tend to trust my own internal "projections" known as my own opinion and evaluation of a player over system projection. I'm wrong a good percentage of the time, but then again so are the "projections" from all these systems or whatever so why trust them over my own eyes and experience?
Why treat them like its gospel when it's even more wrong than I am?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 29, 2024 19:10:40 GMT -5
There is a lot to consider here as well as Story is at SS…. Unless he isn’t next year and Mayer is ready Grissom is probably tending toward LF anyways I think between the huge roster crunch and some aging relievers and with a decisive GM I’d imagine this deadline this year will be quite active Grissom is most likely the long-term 2b.
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