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Post by mattpicard on Apr 11, 2024 20:33:19 GMT -5
Based on the scouting reports I've seen I assume CR is the best fielding SS on the team, why is he always subbing to 2B with the carousel of 45 grade fielders at SS? Yeah, this is really, really bad by Cora. He's been bizarrely poor with defensive alignments for years, but it doesn't get a lot of scrutiny with all else that's plagued the org.
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Post by mattpicard on Mar 1, 2024 18:14:23 GMT -5
I don't get the sense that O'Neill is going to be platooned a whole lot. A lot of his value is in his exceptional defense in LF, and while it'd be great if he was capable in the other spots, he's looked far shakier in CF and he hasn't played RF in five years - and Cora doesn't seem eager to get him much time there this spring. Refsnyder is the easy guy to move on from if you're in a crunch, but you see how the concentration of flawed LHH OF's is making the roster feel a bit clumsy. Yoshida is a DH/shaky LF, Duran is best suited for LF and can maybe get by in CF and can't play RF, and Abreu looks very much like a true platoon guy who's best fit for a corner. Reading between the lines, I have to imagine Breslow is pretty miffed at Bloom getting the Sox saddled with Yoshida for 5/90M. Yoshida projects as their 4th best hitter by wRC+ (just behind O'Neill), and if he weren't on the roster I'm not sure who they could've added to improve the offense. The only OF/DH free agents who project for more WAR are Ohtani, Jung Ho Lee, and Bellinger, none of which would have made much sense for the Red Sox. The realistic alternatives last offseason weren't any better.
Duran and Abreu both exceeded expectations in 2023, which is what's causing this crunch, but I doubt Breslow is really "miffed" about that.
Yeah, I'm not knocking Yoshida's ability to be an above average hitter. But when it's a DH/LF-only profile with <20 HR pop while being a negative in terms of defense and speed contributions, the trickle down effects of rostering a player with those constraints deserve enhanced scrutiny. Everything from the handedness of the major leaguers + top prospects, to Fenway's demands for a strong RF, to limiting the fits for bringing in impact power bats with DH profiles... Yoshida, in my eyes, really needs to be that 130 wRC+ guy he was in the first half of 2023, to feel like an asset. I have a hunch that Yoshida + Duran aren't going to co-exist for much longer on this team.
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Post by mattpicard on Mar 1, 2024 17:39:50 GMT -5
I view the need for a RHH corners guy with pop (whether it be Cron, Dalbec, or someone else) as independent of Rafaela's situation. Reyes isn't feasible as your top 1B backup, nor have there been indications of Refsnyder dusting off his 1B mitt - not to mention he's shown virtually zero power vs LHP outside of two brief stretches two years ago. And as such, this lineup could really use someone who can impact the ball vs lefties, slotting into the ~6 spot of the lineup. When you give a guy like Cron a MiLB deal, a "narrow fit" of starting vs LHP and otherwise backing up 1B is just fine. It's not like committing to an everyday DH, where you start to really lock up lineup and defensive flexibility. And as for the outfielders, if it gets crowded when Rafaela is up because everyone's been productive and healthy... that'll be a nice problem to have, but not one I'll bet on happening. ADD: A tad higher than I expected, given some of the other recent MLB signings (Rosario, Urshela, Cooper, etc.) I guess my question is if they go with 13 pitchers that leaves 4 reserves. If Rafaela is in CF I'm assuming if all healthy that Duran is in LF platooning with O'Neill and Abreu is in RF platooning with Refsnyder. So that leaves room for just 2 more reserves, McGuire and Reyes. Unless there's an injury or Refsnyder gets released or Abreu starts in AAA, the most likely scenario would be Rafaela in AAA to start the season which means opens up that 4th backup spot for Cron. It maybe they do go with 12 pitchers but I wouldnt think that would be the case? I mean I can see the case for Cron on the roster, but it's a tight fit. I don't get the sense that O'Neill is going to be platooned a whole lot. A lot of his value is in his exceptional defense in LF, and while it'd be great if he was capable in the other spots, he's looked far shakier in CF and he hasn't played RF in five years - and Cora doesn't seem eager to get him much time there this spring. Refsnyder is the easy guy to move on from if you're in a crunch, but you see how the concentration of flawed LHH OF's is making the roster feel a bit clumsy. Yoshida is a DH/shaky LF, Duran is best suited for LF and can maybe get by in CF and can't play RF, and Abreu looks very much like a true platoon guy who's best fit for a corner. Reading between the lines, I have to imagine Breslow is pretty miffed at Bloom getting the Sox saddled with Yoshida for 5/90M. ADD: nor have there been indications of Refsnyder dusting off his 1B mitt Timely update here from Pete Abe today:
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Post by mattpicard on Mar 1, 2024 14:20:56 GMT -5
I would think Cron's presence on the team is heavily impacted by Rafaela. If Rafaela is the CF, not much purpose for Cron. If Rafaela is in AAA then I'd think the outfield would have Duran in LF, O'Neill in CF (or vice versa with Duran) and Abreu in RF with Yoshida DHimg against righties. And against lefties it would be Cron DHing with Yoshida pushed to LF, O'Neill in CF with Refsnyder in RF. And Cron would also provide a breather for Casas. But that's a narrow fit given that Cron can only play 1b and that Rafaela will wind up in CF sooner than later. I dont think Cron is long for the Sox. I view the need for a RHH corners guy with pop (whether it be Cron, Dalbec, or someone else) as independent of Rafaela's situation. Reyes isn't feasible as your top 1B backup, nor have there been indications of Refsnyder dusting off his 1B mitt - not to mention he's shown virtually zero power vs LHP outside of two brief stretches two years ago. And as such, this lineup could really use someone who can impact the ball vs lefties, slotting into the ~6 spot of the lineup. When you give a guy like Cron a MiLB deal, a "narrow fit" of starting vs LHP and otherwise backing up 1B is just fine. It's not like committing to an everyday DH, where you start to really lock up lineup and defensive flexibility. And as for the outfielders, if it gets crowded when Rafaela is up because everyone's been productive and healthy... that'll be a nice problem to have, but not one I'll bet on happening. ADD: A tad higher than I expected, given some of the other recent MLB signings (Rosario, Urshela, Cooper, etc.)
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Post by mattpicard on Feb 16, 2024 15:57:17 GMT -5
Composite ranking for BA, MLB, ESPN, Law, and BP. Not the five I'd pick but useful. Interesting that Mayer and Anthony wind up next to each other. That dude stole my work! Kidding, but here's a snippet of my own tracker, filtered to just the Sox guys. The MP Rank is only derived from the purple column headers, but I included a couple fantasy-minded guys - including friend of the site, Chris Clegg - as well as ZiPS. Anyone not in a top 100 list gets an auto 150 assigned.
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Post by mattpicard on Feb 16, 2024 15:48:44 GMT -5
Could it also be that Longenhagen is dinging Mayer because he's lost essentially a year of development time to injuries. Granted, none of these injuries appear to be of the chronic "gotta watch that" type, but cumulatively, they could've put up a flag in the model. I have no knowledge this explains his ranking, just postulating. No subscription is needed to read the Fangraphs Top 100 write-ups and they're worth checking out, for the Sox guys at minimum: blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-top-100-prospects/ Here's Mayer:
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Post by mattpicard on Dec 29, 2023 14:10:29 GMT -5
Also, I know he's coming off an acl injury, but Hoskins has played corner outfield in the past. Splitting time in left field and DH with Yoshida could help transform the lineup. Also seems like he could be got on a 1 year pillow contract. LF for Hoskins is not viable - it's been 6 years since his last exposure out there and he was as horrible as it gets. If you sign Hoskins, he's your 1B backup and otherwise starting DH, with Yoshida locked into LF whenever Casas and Hoskins start. No MLB will consider giving him outfield reps, even in the easiest of left fields. The era of MLB teams experimenting with bat-first players being deployed in positions they have no business being in on defense has largely passed us by. Having all these blow by blow updates on the pursuit of free agent Teoscar Hernandez is so out of character for this org. I will remain hopeful that something is fishy and we're not actually going to sign him. Thinking they’re coming from Teoscar’s camp? Seems likely. If you're to believe some random Twitter accounts "connected" to his camp, it seems like Teo wants to come here and is trying like heck to get a 4-year deal. I doubt any team has floated 4 years to him thus far, and it's helpful that Lourdes Gurriel only got 3 guaranteed years after being pegged by MLBTR, Britton, and others as likely to land 4 years. Yup... starting to get a little nervous about how this off-season is going to play out. Cotillo has been the loudest voice on this (granted McAdams and others have thrown some easter eggs), so I'm going to take it with a grain of salt - he's made abundantly clear, as he always has, that he's just got a couple chirpy agents in his ear. The Sox biggest need by far has been top-of-the-rotation starting pitching, and the Nola and Yamamoto circumstances hardly lend themselves to "guess the Sox are just too small-market-operating these days). Patience! Do we really want to see the team say F it and start signing mid-rotation guys to large/overpaid deals, for the sake of doing something? Not only is that dumb, but it hardly addresses our needs.
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Post by mattpicard on Dec 29, 2023 12:28:46 GMT -5
Is there no concern that Teoscar's bat declined 4 years in a row? I've seen a lot of this concern, but I'm not sure it's the best way to look at it. For all intents and purposes, 2020 data should largely be thrown out - for everyone, whether they had good or bad results. Teoscar had a 132 wRC+ in 2021, 130 in 2022. He provided virtually the same productivity each year, compared to the league average. The counting stats may make you think otherwise, but there was a massive decline in league offense, and particularly power production, in 2022 as compared to 2021 (see here, pitchers excluded). As for 2023, it was a rough season, but it was his first playing in a park that's notorious for destroying RHH power production. The great Adrian Beltre had a 99 wRC+ for the Mariners, and while that stat is supposed to control for park effects, we've still seen prominent power hitters underperform. The whiffs and plate discipline are nevertheless a concern, and don't tend to age well (though Duvall's managed quite alright) but... we're pretty desperate for RHH power, and putting Teo in a better park and lineup should mitigate the inevitable strikeout frustration. Teoscar leads MLB in slugging % from 2021-2023 vs LHP, and my goodness do we need that -- the Sox are fresh off a season ranking 20th in SLG and wRC+ vs lefties. He's also not old, and a four-year deal, while I'd much prefer three years, would only run through his age-34 season. The icing on the cake is that Teoscar can play a capable corner outfield, at either spot. No, he isn't "good", and he's been mistake-prone in his career - but he's fast, has a cannon, and by all accounts (advanced metrics + eye test), just had by far the best defensive season of his career. I'm extremely concerned about rolling with Yoshida as the primary LF, and don't believe in "give him more time to adjust" on the defensive side. He's not athletic, and there's no outcome where I see him being a guy you feel OK about playing in the outfield, particularly away from Fenway. Yoshida ranked 99th out of 101 OF's (ahead of Schwarber, Profar) in OAA's "Burst" rating, and registered a 23rd percentile sprint speed that I don't will get any better. As much as I love Turner, and think Soler would be fun at Fenway, Yoshida's crippling defensive profile is enough for me to consider these guys a non-starter, especially coming off the brutal defense we trotted out last season.
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Post by mattpicard on Dec 28, 2023 17:15:11 GMT -5
Well look who dropped by! (Good to see ya) Always lurking, until I can no longer resist a little defensive deep dive! And to the crowd, my prior post is by no means a Rosario endorsement. I have long loathed his offensive profile.
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Post by mattpicard on Dec 28, 2023 16:25:12 GMT -5
Amed Rosario is bad at fielding, doesn’t hit for power, and swings at everything. I’m curious why the projection system is high on him beyond “he’s only 28 and has had recent 2 WAR seasons before.” Getting traded for the artist-formerly-known-as-Noah Syndergaard is not a great sign. His projection is fairly similar to Tim Anderson. I admittedly forgot Amed Rosario existed, but I actually don't hate the idea at all. Depending on whether you look at UZR or or other defensive metrics, and how much you count years prior to last year, he's either poor, average, or really good defensively. Fangraphs/Steamer projecting him for a strong defensive season fwiw. Other than that, he's a RHH with a decent bat (doesn't walk but doesn't strike out a ton either) who should be relatively cheap. Not the worst middle-infield option I've seen. We have a plenty large enough sample to say that Rosario is a horrendous defensive SS: -39 DRS and -57 OAA in his career. At 2B, it's more of an unknown. You have to think he'd be better, and he got some exposure there for the first time with the Dodgers (190 innings) - but even though the defensive metrics leaned positive, it's a small enough sample that I'm not going to put much into them. One interesting wrinkle to his profile - interesting enough that, yes, I'll cite errors - is that 22 of his 34 SS errors (2021-2023) have been throwing errors. That's the 6th most throwing errors of the 23 shortstops who've played 2,500 innings at the position in that window. Meanwhile, for fielding errors (throwing excluded), only Dansby, Correa, and Farmer have made fewer on a per inning played basis. So he's pretty sure handed, has incredible speed and mediocre arm strength (per Statcast), and seemingly awful throwing accuracy at SS. Statcast OAA also highlights that he's been particularly awful moving to his left, racking up -29 OAA in his career moving in that direction. That lends itself to a guy who will probably be a considerably better second baseman than he is shortstop, but whether that means "tolerable" or actually good remains to be seen. One comp I'll throw out there: Marcus Semien was a similarly poor shortstop with Oakland, also with great speed and poor arm strength, tons of throwing errors relative to fielding errors, and notably poor OAA moving to his left. He's since been thought of as a fantastic defender at second base since sliding over.
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Post by mattpicard on Nov 28, 2022 14:36:39 GMT -5
Am I remembering right that he's a dickbag though? LaTroy Hawkins stated he was "One of the worst teammates I’ve ever had in my life" after they played together in 2014 (Kahnle's rookie season) with Colorado. Apparently he's super loud, but I imagine he's become more bearable over the last 8 years. Couldn't find any other reports of him being a clubhouse concern.
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Post by mattpicard on Apr 24, 2022 14:45:29 GMT -5
There's some sort of Dalbec Derangement Syndrome going on here. We are one day removed from a game in which he had the team's ONLY meaningful hit, and he's hardly been the only guy struggling. He has 2 RBI on the year and a sub .500 OPS. He got his 2nd RBI in the 10th inning after going hitless through 9. He's having the worst month of his career and the first half of last year was painful. He's not good. Yeah, we're talking about a guy with a career .288 OBP vs RHP and a 35% k-rate. He can be a useful player, and certainly runs hot and cold, but as Ian alluded to on the last pod, he's not an MLB starting first baseman. He's not someone I ever have confidence in to come through, unless maybe it's against a mediocre left-hander (certainly not ShaneMac). Doesn't mean he won't occasionally drive a surprise clutch hit, but he's not a guy I'm inclined to "give more time" to to figure it out. We know what the profile is.
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Post by mattpicard on Apr 24, 2022 10:48:36 GMT -5
I think it's far more than adjusting to 2B. His arm was extremely messed up last season, and he couldn't throw with any zip whatsoever from SS after formerly having a cannon. And from this Rosenthal article this month, "Story said he is taking “pre-hab” steps pregame and postgame to reduce the chances of the injury re-occurring, incorporating specific warmups and strengthening exercises into his routine." I'm not a throwing expert, but Story's throws this whole season have looked awkward (form wise, not necessarily the result) without any semblance of the zip he used to gun it with. I'm not saying this is full scale Ryan Zimmerman levels of concerning, but I do worry the guy may never throw like he once did, and while you can hide the consequences of that more effectively at 2B than on the other side of the infield, you can't hide it entirely. I don't think his arm is much of an issue at this point, and I'm sure the Sox wouldn't have signed him if they thought otherwise. Even last year when he was actively dealing with the injury he was able to handle SS just fine. I read that he was throwing upper 80s instead of his usual 90s. Upper 80s should still be overkill for 2B, so unless it got worse he should have the arm for 2B and then some. His fielding percentage last year was just about exactly on his career average, so it doesn't look like he lost his throwing accuracy either.Trevor Story throwing errors by year: 2016: 6 2017: 6 2018: 7 2019: 7 2020: 5 2021: 11 11 of his 14 total errors in 2021 were throwing errors. His overall fielding percentage shouldn't be used to explain away concern. It's also notable that they've locked him into 2B-only this year, using Arroyo to backup Xander at SS. Recall that last season, the Sox preferred to even use Hernandez over Arroyo at SS. Sure, there's a "let Story focus on getting comfortable at 2B" element, but I'm at least a 5 on the 1-10 worryometer regarding Story's ability to throw like a MLB shortstop right now. And like I said in my last post, 2B can hide those issues only to a certain degree.
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Post by mattpicard on Apr 24, 2022 10:14:41 GMT -5
Story has not been throwing well. I assume it is just adjusting to 2b. Mostly it hasn’t mattered. Tonight it did. I think it's far more than adjusting to 2B. His arm was extremely messed up last season, and he couldn't throw with any zip whatsoever from SS after formerly having a cannon. And from this Rosenthal article this month, "Story said he is taking “pre-hab” steps pregame and postgame to reduce the chances of the injury re-occurring, incorporating specific warmups and strengthening exercises into his routine." I'm not a throwing expert, but Story's throws this whole season have looked awkward (form wise, not necessarily the result) without any semblance of the zip he used to gun it with. I'm not saying this is full scale Ryan Zimmerman levels of concerning, but I do worry the guy may never throw like he once did, and while you can hide the consequences of that more effectively at 2B than on the other side of the infield, you can't hide it entirely.
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Post by mattpicard on Mar 16, 2021 12:48:31 GMT -5
You're citing where he said it. Those and other tweets reports are from the same press conference (nobody is getting interviewed outside of the Zoom availability everyone is on right now, so there's not much original reporting happening). The implication was that in a park like the Stadium he'll be inclined to put his best two OF defenders in LF and CF, that being Verdugo and Renfroe. Gotcha, I figured. To be clear, that doesn't fully jive with Eric's stated LF Renfroe/RF Verdugo alignment at Yankee Stadium. Verdugo is at worst in a tie for your best defensive OF, so I'm not sure why we'd project him in RF in the Bronx.
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Post by mattpicard on Mar 15, 2021 21:30:53 GMT -5
Re who plays where, Cora revealed that in Fenway, his OF alignment vs. LHP is Kiké in LF, Verdugo in CF, Renfroe in RF. He mentioned that on the road in certain parks with a big LF, Renfroe would be in LF, meaning Kiké in CF and Verdugo in RF. Mind posting the source of Cora saying this, particularly RE: Renfroe taking the big LF's on the road? I love this kind of stuff and am fascinated to see the alignments they deploy, but I really don't buy the Renfroe hype as the #1 defensive outfielder (if that's a thing). I know he had an insanely high-graded 2019, but based on DRS/UZR/Statcast metrics, I don't understand how you prioritize him over Verdugo in the toughest OF spots. For example, if it's Yankee stadium, I'm going Verdugo/Hernandez/Renfroe or Hernandez/Verdugo/Renfroe. I don't know what scenario, Fenway or elsewhere, I'd go Renfroe in center field or in a tough left field over the other two. I guess if Verdugo and Hernandez were out of the lineup and you were left with Franchy, Renfroe, Marwin, and Arroyo, then sure, but we're virtually never going to see that assortment. McCaffrey had a tweet referencing Renfroe playing "center and left" where she meant "center and right", and there's this Cotillo article (quoted below), but I can't find much else.
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Post by mattpicard on Jan 2, 2020 20:16:17 GMT -5
Disagree emphatically with the bolded assertion as any sort of inevitability. Devers is already about a league average 3B. I think Dalbec is less than a year out. He will be better at third than Devers. If Dalbec is at third, Devers goes to first. You sound pretty sure of something that I just can't see happening -- at least not anytime soon. Devers improved considerably at third in 2019. The earliest the Sox would consider a position change is next offseason, and probably only if he was atrocious over the course of 2020. It's not like Dalbec projects to be a gold glover at third. There's little reason to be confident that he is - or will be - a much better than defender Devers. And when it comes to first base, Dalbec has the better profile for that.
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Post by mattpicard on Jan 1, 2020 22:42:55 GMT -5
Thanks everyone! SoxProspects is so engrained in me at this point that I'll still be following along, and perhaps popping up on the board here and there.
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Post by mattpicard on Sept 10, 2019 19:40:53 GMT -5
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Post by mattpicard on Sept 10, 2019 19:35:59 GMT -5
I’m glad they are keeping Gunner around. I really think he could be an impact receiver down the road in addition to his return abilities. I hope they let him return kickoffs as well as punts... Meyers is probably a healthy scratch on game day with Brown being active. Agree on both counts. Gunner did get some kick return duty in the preseason (maybe just one game?), but he strictly returned punts in college and hasn't been with the KR units at all lately with the Pats. Bolden didn't look great on KR duty Sunday, not that the limited sample can say too much -- but Gunner brings a lot more electricity. Per PatsCap, it saves $1.5M, but still a good point. There's also a fair chance the Jets were the primary team with interest, and if the Patriots figured he'd sign there anyways, they might as well snag something for him. While DT's had a good NFL career, nothing of recent indicates teams thought much of him. He was a top cut candidate since first signing with the Pats, and folks shouldn't make too much of his solid preseason game. For what it’s worth, and it may not be much, but Dr David Chow was all over telling people not to over-react to Thomas’s preseason game. He kind of famous for accurately diagnosing injuries over video etc and he was adamant that Thomas had no explosion or burst and that he wasn’t moving all that freely. I was ignoring it because I was excited about the prospects of him here, especially in the red zone. Red zone offense is one area I am slightly concerned about. Yup. And to be honest, he'd been looking increasingly mediocre in his games/seasons leading up to the Achilles injury.
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Post by mattpicard on Sept 10, 2019 19:14:10 GMT -5
Kinda a really cold move no? He signed onto win with us, even agreed to get cut and come back so we had an extra roster spot to IR guys. You then trade him to the Jets? He's a big upgrade for them if he's healthy. I know it likely doesn't matter they are so bad, yet kinda weird. Is a 2021 pick really worth not just releasing him. No worries about facing him and worst other free agents fearing they are going to be traded to one of the worst teams in the league. Maybe he's cool with it and they talked with him. I hope so, because I would be pissed. I'd want to win at his point in my career and you just about killed that before week two. The move itself makes sense. You couldn't release or trade Meyers. Pumped we got a pick, never played a real game and still helped us. It just seems like a cold move if the player didn't ok it given what happened so far. Trading him saved them 2.8m against the cap as his money was guaranteed after week 1 so trading him was a huge development for the Patriots. Per PatsCap, it saves $1.5M, but still a good point. There's also a fair chance the Jets were the primary team with interest, and if the Patriots figured he'd sign there anyways, they might as well snag something for him. While DT's had a good NFL career, nothing of recent indicates teams thought much of him. He was a top cut candidate since first signing with the Pats, and folks shouldn't make too much of his solid preseason game.
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Post by mattpicard on Aug 3, 2019 20:39:25 GMT -5
Minor complaint: Holt should be in the OF with Travis at 1B.
1B Travis LF Benintendi CF Betts RF Holt
Seems a lot better than:
1B Holt LF Travis CF Benintendi RF Betts
Especially at Yankee Stadium.
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Post by mattpicard on Jul 26, 2019 15:21:27 GMT -5
Doesn't Travis at 1st and Chavis at 2nd seems odd vs. Paxton? Is Moreland not recovered? Has Holt not been on a tear? Can I ask one more rhetorical question? Seems fine to me. Paxton isn't running reverse platoon splits this year, Moreland stinks vs LHPs, Holt isn't good against them, and Travis is serviceable against them.
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Post by mattpicard on Jul 20, 2019 19:05:54 GMT -5
That ball was stung, but seems like Benintendi's been playing LF with the range of a fire hydrant this year.
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Post by mattpicard on Jul 3, 2019 13:57:09 GMT -5
I believe Jbj's defense may not regress as much as many of the speedier golden glove centerfielders we've seen in the past because he relies more on reads and routes than pure speed. If he can establish that his bat improvement is real, I can see keeping him on an extension. However, he may be one of our more valuable trade chips if other clubs believe in his bat. Maybe, maybe not. We've seen guys like Torii Hunter -- who wasn't a gold glover because of his speed -- go from being elite center fielders to horrible corner outfielders as they age. Point being, JBJ may always retain great non-speed qualities as an outfielder, but his range could still decline enough render him a below average or poor outfielder.
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