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danr
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Post by danr on Jun 18, 2015 13:25:11 GMT -5
That raises the question of what happens to all these players? It is close to mid season for the full season leagues and usually around that time there are a number of player changes, promotions, cuts, etc.
So I wonder, will some of the players at Greenville be promoted in the next few weeks to make space for some of the college guys?
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danr
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Post by danr on Jun 18, 2015 12:58:42 GMT -5
Holt might have more value to another team than he does to the Sox. The cycle excepted, Holt is a good hitting middle infielder, and while a very capable defender in the outfield he doesn't have the power generally required for an outfielder, and this is especially true with the Sox.
Another team that has sufficient power hitting already might find him very helpful because of his OBP and versatility.
He isn't a permanent solution in the outfield. At this point it makes more sense for the team to try to find one, whether it is Castillo, or someone else.
He might be about the valuable position player trade chip the Sox have right now.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jun 18, 2015 12:43:19 GMT -5
The so-called "decline" in Pablo Sandoval's performance over the past several years is entirely attributable to a declining ability to hit lefthanded pitching when batting righthanded.
Batting 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
LH .314 .282 .324 .275 .281 .317 .325 RH .379 .227 .281 .299 .270 .199 .141
He has hit better lefthanded the past two seasons than ever before. He also seems to be hitting lefthanded pitchers better since he stopped batting righthanded, and his batting average has been rising.
His power numbers have been relatively the same for the last four years.
So, the argument that he is decline, at least as a batter, doesn't hold up when subject to statistical scrutiny.
There also is some "fat prejudice" showing up in some poster's arguments. He is heavy, but he has a body type not untypical for people with his heredity, and if you actually watch him you will see that he is quick and nimble for anyone of any size. And weight has little to do with hand-eye coordination or arm strength. He has not been as good a defender this year as in the past but I suspect it has more to do with playing in unfamiliar environments, and more stress than he will admit. Players also go through fielding slumps as well as batting slumps.
It probably would be virtually impossible to replace Sandoval with a player equal to him in the combination of hitting and fielding skills.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jun 17, 2015 16:08:51 GMT -5
Isn't about time for some movement of players, some promotions, some cuts, to make room for the new guys?
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danr
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Post by danr on Jun 17, 2015 16:07:56 GMT -5
Where is the roster? The one on the Lowell website is out of date.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jun 17, 2015 15:32:27 GMT -5
Where is that Lowell roster? The one on their website is out of date and incomplete.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jun 17, 2015 15:26:16 GMT -5
Chill...
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danr
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Post by danr on Jun 17, 2015 11:51:31 GMT -5
I am a great admirer of the St. Louis team and how they manage to be competitive year after year. In fact, I think in their entire history they only have finished last once or twice. Even through ownership and management changes they have kept the team competitive.
There was a time when most of their talent came from trades and free agent signings. Up until the early 2000s, their farm system was not highly ranked. But they made a decision to change and from then on have focused on building from within, occasionally making trades or signing a free agent. But basically relying on their farm system - and their development process - to produce most of their players. I think the 2011 team had 17 players from their farm system.
I don't know much about how they operate internally, but it seems pretty clear that they have management, scouting and coaching talent throughout their system. I think they are particularly good at evaluating their own players.
And despite the fact they seldom get a high draft choice, they have drafted well and their system continues to produce quality players.
The Red Sox are supposed to have a well-coordinated and managed farm system, but its production is not that great. Of course, this partly is due to some drafts simply not producing much talent. I went back through the drafts from 2005 to 2012 to see what quality players, players who became regulars in the majors, were produced.
(Note: In fairness, the draft is not the only source of amateur talent. The Sox have had some success getting players from the international pool, including Bogaerts and Tazawa.)
2005: Buchholz, Ellsbury, Lowrie 2006: Masterson, Reddick 2007: Middlebrooks, Rizzo 2008: Vazquez 2009: none 2010: Workman is the only one so far to see much time in the majors 2011: Swihart, Bradley, Betts and maybe Barnes (also Owens, and Shaw as likely futures) 2012: None yet, but possibles are Marrero, Johnson, Light and Buttrey
Of the standouts from these drafts, Buchholz, Ellsubry, Lowrie, Reddick, Rizzo Vazquez, Swihart, and Betts, four are playing for other teams.
The very recent drafts and international signings have produced quite a crop of extremely promising prospects, but nearly all are Greenville or below. There are very few players in A+, AA, or AAA who currently are projected to be regulars with the Sox.
Near-term (next year and the year after) better performance by the Sox is going to have to come from improved performance by existing players, and acquisition by trade and free agency of quality players.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jun 16, 2015 21:17:33 GMT -5
Somehow with all that extra weight, Panda managed to jump and catch that liner yesterday. He also managed to leg out a double that easily could have been only a single.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jun 16, 2015 18:30:09 GMT -5
I think Swihart should continue to be the regular catcher. I don't think he will learn nearly as much at Pawtucket as he will in Boston. With this season pretty much lost, it seems to me that it makes sense to keep Swihart as the regular so that he becomes even more knowledgeable about the team's pitchers and the hitters on other teams. He won't get that knowledge at Pawtucket. If they do this he will be better prepared for next season.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jun 16, 2015 11:47:45 GMT -5
The radio broadcasters believe the strike zone expansion is due to the electronic strike zone system that tracks every pitch. It is being used in the umpire schools to train new umpires. They claim that the younger umpires - and apparently there has been quite a turnover of umpires recently - primarily are the ones calling the larger strike zone. The veteran umpires apparently are not.
If what they say is true, then it is not a MLB directive that has expanded the strike zones, it is the training new umpires are getting that measures the strike zone from it very edges, with any part of the ball touching an edge considered a strike.
That alone could account for the below the kneecap strikes being called and for some of the wider ones.
Watching the game yesterday with the strike zone superimposed there were many strikes called that just touched the edges. I only saw one that was truly a ball.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jun 16, 2015 10:09:21 GMT -5
I think there is a lot to the strike zone change with Napoli and Ortiz, especially Napoli. This is my speculation: Napoli had a terrific eye for the strike zone and it was built into his muscle memory over a long time. Now, he cannot adjust to the changes. He can't make himself swing at a pitch his muscle memory believes is a ball even though it isn't anymore. He is taking way too many strikes and so often is at a great disadvantage with the count against him.
I don't think the shift is as big a problem for Ortiz as is the strike zone. Again, he may have some of the same problem that Napoli has.
The difference is that Napoli still seems to have the bat speed and the ability to hit a fastball. Ortiz seems to have slipped a little in that area. He denies it but it appears obvious when he hits against a pitcher with a good fastball.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jun 15, 2015 22:27:59 GMT -5
Panda had a very good game tonight, also, both at bat and in the field.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jun 15, 2015 20:08:57 GMT -5
The ninth hitter always has fewer at bats than the eighth batter and thus fewer opportunities to get on base. It makes no sense from a probability standpoint to put at ninth a better hitter than the eighth hitter. To amplify: Each batter in the batting order has approximately 17 fewer at bats over the course of a season than the batter preceding him. Thus, there is no such thing as a second leadoff batter. The ninth position will come to bat about 116 fewer times than the leadoff position, and about 17 fewer times than the 8th position. The idea is that you get more out of those fewer opportunities to get on base due to the better following hitters. Look, I'm sorry that there are mistakes in your book from the 60's, but that's been known and corrected since 10 years at least. You need to get over it. I am not aware of that. Please give me a source. However, my argument is based on numbers which cannot be refuted. The eighth batting position is going to get more at bats than the ninth. How can you argue with that? And then why would you put a better hitter ninth? It can't make sense.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jun 15, 2015 17:34:51 GMT -5
The ninth hitter always has fewer at bats than the eighth batter and thus fewer opportunities to get on base. It makes no sense from a probability standpoint to put at ninth a better hitter than the eighth hitter.
To amplify: Each batter in the batting order has approximately 17 fewer at bats over the course of a season than the batter preceding him. Thus, there is no such thing as a second leadoff batter. The ninth position will come to bat about 116 fewer times than the leadoff position, and about 17 fewer times than the 8th position.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jun 15, 2015 15:26:45 GMT -5
We may have widely different opinions on many things but there definitely is strong support on this site for getting Hanley out of LF as much as possible and bringing up JBJ. I wonder how long it is going to take for Sox management to do it. -- Breslow reactivated and Shaw sent back to Pawtucket. Definitely not something that will do much for the team. I don't understand them keeping Bianci. I would have liked Shaw to get some chances at both 1st and 3rd. There have been good reports coming from Pawtucket about his fielding at both positions, and he has been mashing at the plate.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jun 15, 2015 10:08:04 GMT -5
I am being the devil's advocate here, not sure, as I said when I started this, that this is what should be done. But in my experience when things really are bad (and I have a fair amount of experience with things going really bad), minor changes seldom help.
There really are two options, ride it out and gamble that things will improve, or bite the bullet and make radical changes, also gambling that things then will improve.
When you are deeply invested, or committed to something, or if that something is iconic, that second option is very hard to do.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jun 15, 2015 9:39:09 GMT -5
I am not saying that all the new players should be traded, but that maybe some should, and which ones would depend on what deals could be done. But I don't think the Sox would be selling low. Other teams know the problems the Sox are having with defense and with injuries which are major contributors to the poor performance.
There have been a number of posters who have said there isn't much that can be done. I don't believe that is true. There is tremendous competition among many teams this season for the post season. Many of those teams will have needs that some of the Sox players might fill. Some teams will be willing to take chances, especially if the Sox sweeten the deals by paying some of the salaries.
The only players I would try hard not to trade are Pedroia, Swihart, Betts, Bogaerts and Rodriguez, but to me, only Pedroia and maybe Rodriguez truly are untouchable.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jun 15, 2015 9:10:02 GMT -5
Are there any restrictions on trading a player who was just signed as a free agent? Could Hanley, Sandoval, Miley or Porcello be traded this season? For some reason I have been under the impression that there is some kind of restriction, maybe just a time restriction.
If they can be traded, then maybe we should be talking about a huge overhaul of the team, not just a couple of tweaks. Maybe trades of a number of the significant players, completely altering the lineup and the pitching staff. I don't have any specific ideas and if I did I would put them in the trade forum. Right now I am just throwing out the idea for a complete blow up of this team.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jun 14, 2015 17:44:50 GMT -5
diango, I think you are giving up on some players way too early. These players have adjustment problems of one kind or another, and are not performing as they should, based on their past records.
Hanley is a great hitter and I think he is going to be the next Ortiz. The priority with him is getting him off the field, which was the case with Ortiz, and it paid off.
I've argued all along that people worry far too much about Sandoval's weight. That is not his problem. He is going through a bad patch, but I think he will give the Sox several good years. He is a much better defender than we have seen recently.
It is impossible to assess Castillo. He hasn't had enough time. He seems to be a pretty good fielder and he definitely has some power. It is way too early to claim that his is a bad contract.
No argument on Craig. I feel sorry for the guy but I don't think he is going to make it back with the Sox. I think it was a reasonable risk to take a chance on him.
Porcello was a very good pitcher last year and he isn't consistently that pitcher yet with the Sox. He still is young, not even in his prime. I think he will be fine and give the Sox some solid pitching.
Miley was not himself for a while but he is doing better now. He is far from an ace, but OK as a fourth or fifth.
Every one of the top teams has top-ranked pitching. The Sox don't, and with what they have now, they won't. And they will not be a contender without it. The problem with the Sox rotation, other than the fact that everyone has had bad runs, is that no one has been exceptional, or is likely to be. There is no number 1 or number 2 pitcher except for Buchholz when he is in one of his good streaks. But you never know when that will end. I'm not counting Rodriguez because after today's performance we need to see more of him.
The Sox need a couple of ace-level pitchers. Maybe Rodriguez is one, but that's not enough. Johnson is not that guy. Owens may be, but with what he is going through this year, he may be further away than we thought he was. There is no one below AAA until the low levels with that kind of potential. They have to sign or trade for at least one.
The hitting, of course, is atrocious. I think it will improve some, but the heart of the batting order is problematical. Ortiz and Napoli should not be batting back to back anymore. I am not sure Napoli should be batting at all. De Aza should not be starting in the OF. I know it is the result of Betts getting hurt, but he is never going to be a good player. He cannot help the Sox. Trading for him made no sense.
At this point, with virtually no chance left to be a contender, the Sox should move into a rebuilding phase, and start getting rid of the players who will not be around next year - or shouldn't be. There are trades that can be made. There are players at Pawtucket who should be given opportunities. There need to be some promotions of players from lower levels so room needs to be made at the higher levels - and the highest level.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jun 14, 2015 14:07:14 GMT -5
According to the radio guys, that stolen base should not have been allowed, that the runner was out and the umpires were also wrong about the double play, that De Aza should have caught one of those balls in the outfield, and then Pedroia loses two balls in the sun. And, of course, ERod wasn't missing any bats.
And now just another screw-up in the outfield, allowing another run...
This is beyond bad luck.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jun 14, 2015 12:26:18 GMT -5
I moved the Buchholz discussion to its own thread in the trade proposal subforum and started a consolidate trade deadline strategy thread there as well. As a reminder, let's keep trade-centered discussion to that forum. Thanks. I agree that specific trade proposals should not be here, but I don't see how we can write about what can be done to fix the Sox without some discussion of trading players, including specific players like Buchholz.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jun 14, 2015 12:21:59 GMT -5
Based only on what I have read, and statistics, I think Johnson possibly is comparable to Miley, but maybe with better command. He's probably going to be a major league starter, but a fourth or fifth starter - still, in my mind, making him a valuable player, particularly as a trade chip. Kelly definitely has greater potential, if he develops better command.
I've argued for giving Johnson a tryout, but, of course, if that didn't go well his value would diminish. Even if he did reasonably well, it probably would not make much difference with this team, without other changes.
Fixing some of the other problems might be made more feasible by packaging Johnson in a trade.
I would rather see JBJ in the OF with the Sox today than de Aza. In his case, I think he needs the major league reps. I don't think AAA is going to do much more for him.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jun 14, 2015 12:10:40 GMT -5
Does anyone know if JBJ has solved his problem with inside pitches? If he hasn't and he is brought up those are just about the only pitches he will see.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jun 14, 2015 12:07:47 GMT -5
I think jmei is pretty much on target. Looking over Light's record before this year would not lead one to believe he was much of a prospect. This conversion to relief has been remarkably successful so far, but he needs to show he can be consistent. Kelly throws even harder than Light and has a couple of other decent pitches but doesn't have command - and we see the painful results.
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