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danr
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Post by danr on Jun 20, 2015 21:26:29 GMT -5
Hanigan is about to start rehabbing at Pawtucket. That might get accelerated.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jun 20, 2015 20:54:03 GMT -5
Swihart has a strained foot and Sandoval has a strained ankle. "Strained" has quite a range of potential severity. Nothing said on the radio about the severity.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jun 20, 2015 20:50:11 GMT -5
Who still thinks the Porcello extension is agreat deal? And more important, does that group include any GMs outside of Boston. He may be having some bad luck this year but increasingly it looks more and more like he does't have a legit out pitch. The issue is not a lack of an out pitch (his four-seamer, curveball, and changeup all have pretty good whiff rates, and his strikeout rate this year is the second-highest of his career). The issue is that he's been unable to command his stuff and has left a lot of his pitches up in the zone this year. Exactly right. Porcello has not pitched this year like he did last year. He isn't himself. Miley had the same problem for a while. He's still pretty young and things may be getting to him. When he is himself he is a superb pitcher. He probably could use a breather.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jun 20, 2015 20:44:50 GMT -5
Sandoval has been one of the best hitters on the team recently. And did his error come from him being heavy, or from being injured by throwing off balance? There is a lot of mindless prejudice in things written about Sandoval. Gotta disagree, Danr. He's at -.2 fWAR and exactly replacement level on b-Ref. He's been a bad, expensive and poorly-conditioned BB player. That's why people are ticked off, not because of any "prejudice." Going into tonight's game, Sandoval had 16 hits in the last 11 games, the most of any Sox player. He also had an eight-game hitting streak. I am a little dubious of war calculations and don't put much weight on them, especially in mid season.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jun 20, 2015 20:06:39 GMT -5
Is anyone really concerned about losing Sandoval? Travis Shaw might be able to be a bit better than replacement level, which would make him an upgrade over fatty. I guess you could say Shaw has big pants to fill, but not big shoes to fill. Sandoval has been one of the best hitters on the team recently. And did his error come from him being heavy, or from being injured by throwing off balance? There is a lot of mindless prejudice in things written about Sandoval.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jun 20, 2015 20:02:41 GMT -5
I don't understand why neither the pitching coach nor Farrell went out to the mound to talk to Porcello after that balk call. It seemed from listening to the radio broadcast that Porcello was shook up by that.
And after the error was the time to make a pitcher change. Instead, boom, KC up by two.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jun 20, 2015 17:52:30 GMT -5
I wrote that most hitters are streaky and tend to bunch their hits together. I said that if Pedroia got three hits in a game there was a good probability he would follow with a streak of games in which he got more than one hit a game. That statement was challenged and said to be untrue.
Well folks, it is true, at least this year, but not every time for Pedroia, just most of the time. It also is true for some other hitters, but not for all of them.
What is true for most of the Red Sox hitters is that they bunch their hits in mini streaks and also go for periods when they hit very little. May was a disaster in part because most of the Sox hitters had bad streaks during the month.
I've done a spread sheet of the hitting of ever Sox hitter by game so far this season and the facts generally support my statement. The details:
Pedroia had three hits on opening day but he did not immediately go into a hitting streak. He went hitless for two games and then had a mini streak of nine hits in the next six games, including another three-hit game. He had another three hit game on April 26 that began an eight game hitting streak in which he collected 12 hits. His next three hit game was May 22 and that ignited a nine game streak in which he had 15 hits. On June 3 he had four hits that began a streak of 12 games in which he got 21 hits before his knee injury.
Pedroia is the poster boy of streak hitting, usually begun with a three or four hit game.
However, Betts also appears to be a similar type of streak hitter. His first three hit game was April 27. That set off a 13-game hitting streak in which he had 19 hits of the total of 37 he had between the beginning of the streak and the end of May. He got 15 more hits in an 11-game period at the end of the month, including a three hit game.
On June 16 he had another three hit game, followed by one hit on the 17th, two on the 18th and four last night.
Bogaerts also has been a streak hitter this season. He had three hits on April 9, four the next game and five in the next three games, for a total of 12 hits in five games. He only had eight other hits in the month of April.
However, it doesn't always happen. He had four hits again on May 24 but went four games without a hit afterwards - his longest hitless streak of the season. He ended that hitless streak with three hits on May 31, followed by two hits the next game, and three the game after that. Then after one game without a hit he had a eight-game hitting streak started by another three hit game. So he had three three-hit games in the space of five games.
Ramirez, with 22 multi-hit games and Sandoval, with 21, are second and third to Pedroia's 24 and while Sandoval has a current eight game hitting streak, neither seems to be typical of streak hitters. In fact, Sandoval has had two four hit games, without much following them.
Because both Ortiz and Napoli have not been hitting much for most of the season, they really can't be assessed very well. However, there was an eight game period in May when Napoli got 12 of the total of 21 hits he had in the entire month.
Ortiz has inconsistent results. He got three hits on April 18 in the midst of an 11 game streak in which he got only a total of seven hits. He got three hits again on May 11 and then went three games without a hit. However, going into tonight's game he has an eight-game hitting streak.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jun 19, 2015 18:17:39 GMT -5
Maybe momentum isn't the right word, but it is a fact that baseball players almost universally hit well in streaks. Few, if any, hit near their average week in and week out. So when a player does well it might mean the beginning of good streak.
For example, if Pedroia gets three hits in a game the odds are good that he will go several games getting more than one hit a game. Look at what Napoli did that one week, which moved his BA by more than 50 points if I recall correctly.
Few baseball players perform well if they don't play regularly. Holt is a very notable exception.
It isn't likely that Castillo is going to show his potential unless he gets to play regularly. The only reason I can think of for him not being in the lineup tonight is that he must be injured.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jun 19, 2015 18:08:39 GMT -5
Golson made the right choice, and the Sox were very lucky. He only played one year of baseball for Ole Miss, hitting .204, but he was an All-American football player and now is a cornerback for the Pittsburgh Steelers. He only made the right choice if he wouldn't have made it to the pros. Being an MLB bench player is a better career than being an NFL starter. Impossible to know, of course. Well, you are right about that. I'd much rather sit on the bench of a major league baseball team than have my body bashed by 300-pounders.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jun 19, 2015 18:04:29 GMT -5
Something is very odd - or at least unexplained - about Castillo not being in this lineup tonight.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jun 19, 2015 14:29:53 GMT -5
I know but when he is in one of his hot streaks - which until this year we had not much in a while - he is fun to watch at bat.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jun 19, 2015 14:26:32 GMT -5
I know Ortiz is fading, and it makes me sad. But still, there is no one else currently on the team I would rather see at bat in a critical situation, although Pedroia is close and Bogaerts is getting closer. No player on the Sox has the persona, the charisma, whatever that Ortiz has. The stadiums buzz every time he comes to bat. No other hitter on the Sox, or for that matter, on very many other teams, generates that kind of electricity, excitement and/or anticipation.
I hope someone steps up and takes the place that he has occupied.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jun 19, 2015 14:19:23 GMT -5
Golson made the right choice, and the Sox were very lucky. He only played one year of baseball for Ole Miss, hitting .204, but he was an All-American football player and now is a cornerback for the Pittsburgh Steelers.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jun 19, 2015 14:15:00 GMT -5
That draft may turn out to be the most productive ever.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jun 19, 2015 14:12:38 GMT -5
I have a good memory, but not a photographic one. So while I can remember huge amounts of information I often have a poor memory for the sources. I just recall from several years ago, before the current draft structure, when this technique supposedly was employed. Almost surely I had to have read about on this site since I learn more here about the Sox than everywhere else combined.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jun 19, 2015 12:30:55 GMT -5
I haven't seen the sense of trading for De Aza. He isn't a player the Sox would have in a pennant race, and since they aren't in the race, they should be playing guys who are going to be around next year, namely Castillo and JBJ.
There should be a rotating four person outfield of Hanley, Betts, Castillo and JBJ, with Holt getting an occasional start when he isn't playing one of the infield positions. Hanley would only play about seven innings when he is in the outfield, and he should be platooned with Ortiz at DH to cut down his outfield time.
They talk about the time Castillo lost but they aren't giving him much playing time. They need to find out if he really is who they thought he was, and now is a good time to do that.
I understand not putting too much pressure on JBJ and I think this would be a good way to lessen it but still give him the big league reps he needs.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jun 19, 2015 12:20:23 GMT -5
I don't know if they still do it, but a few years ago, when the deadline for signing was much later, the Sox basically would allocate a certain amount of money to spend on their later round picks - not enough to sign everyone. They then would tell draftees that once the money was gone there would be no more deals. So if a kid held out for more money than offered there was a chance the entire offer would be withdrawn. With a much shorter signing period, they probably don't need to do this now.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jun 19, 2015 11:58:52 GMT -5
Brock Holt [...] until the last couple of games, he didn't hit like a 3B should. It would be a remarkable thing if he keeps up his current slugging. Exercise: name 15 current starting 3rd basemen who "hit like a 3B should". Sorry but I don't play games like that. If you would care to comment on the substance of my post then I will respond.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jun 19, 2015 10:25:08 GMT -5
I don't think not playing Ortiz at 1B is because he can't play it. When he does play it, he usually does it very acceptably - which actually is a bit impressive considering how seldom he plays it. However, the primary reason he hasn't played it regularly is to prevent him from being injured.
As I recall, early on when he did play 1B more regularly he had injury problems and it was decided to make him a full-time DH to keep his bat in the lineup. Now, at his age, I doubt he would hold up very long as even a part-time 1B. It's too bad because with Napoli not hitting and Hanley botching LF, it would make the team better if Hanley were the DH and Ortiz was the 1B.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jun 19, 2015 9:38:54 GMT -5
Those 2019 lineups are appealing, but there is virtually no chance they are the lineups the Sox will have. Six of them are in low-A ball or lower. They may look pretty good now at those levels, but there are going to be casualties in the climb through the high minors. There always are.
Then, there will be trades, which will be necessary to field teams between now and 2019. Some of these players will go in trades.
Then there will be draft choices next year and the year after. Next year's could be really good.
I hope Sox management is devising a plan now to get this team back in order as quickly as possible, back to being respectable. Too many things have gone wrong. It isn't just bad luck. It is putting together a team that does not have enough flexibility and alternatives to get past bad luck. Teams that are well-managed do that. --- As a side note, that piece by Chaz is good reading, good analysis. I hope Shaw gets an extended tryout with the Sox and that JBJ gets recalled soon.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jun 18, 2015 22:20:17 GMT -5
Brock Holt is not a strong defensive 3B or SS, and not as good at 3B as Sandoval. So he really isn't an alternative. Also, until the last couple of games, he didn't hit like a 3B should. It would be a remarkable thing if he keeps up his current slugging. However, he has become a very valuable player.
With all the hate towards Sandoval, no one has come up with an alternative. The fact is the choices for 3B this past year were very limited, and they remain so. There aren't that many good 3Bs, and none of the good ones is available.
I didn't think Sandoval would sign with Boston, and I still don't know why he did. He had a very good thing in SF, a following he probably never will gain in Boston. Sometimes people don't appreciate what they have. In any case, he's going to be the Sox 3B until Devers or Moncada or Chavis arrive.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jun 18, 2015 18:42:00 GMT -5
Also, he hit .199 against RHPs last year. The Sox knew that. So far, he seems to be able to hit LHPs better lefthanded than he was righthanded. Also, he has been hitting pretty well recently.
Am I the only one who isn't bothered by him looking at his phone while sitting on the john? I know there is a rule against it, and he violated it, but this is being made into a hugely bigger deal than it is. And that is especially true in light of him manning up, admitting he was wrong, and saying he won't do it again.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jun 18, 2015 18:16:31 GMT -5
I don't understand playing De Aza instead of Castillo. For the amount of money Castillo cost, he should be expected to hit righthand pitching. And for what he is being paid, he should be playing. This is a very bizarre season.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jun 18, 2015 18:12:04 GMT -5
totheeights, I am reposting here what I posted in the trade forum earlier today. It was done before the news about Sandoval came out, but that doesn't affect anything I wrote.
The so-called "decline" in Pablo Sandoval's performance over the past several years is entirely attributable to a declining ability to hit lefthanded pitching when batting righthanded.
Batting 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
LH .314 .282 .324 .275 .281 .317 .325 RH .379 .227 .281 .299 .270 .199 .141
He has hit better lefthanded the past two seasons than ever before. He also seems to be hitting lefthanded pitchers better since he stopped batting righthanded, and his batting average has been rising.
His power numbers have been relatively the same for the last four years.
So, the argument that he is decline, at least as a batter, doesn't hold up when subject to statistical scrutiny.
There also is some "fat prejudice" showing up in some poster's arguments. He is heavy, but he has a body type not untypical for people with his heredity, and if you actually watch him you will see that he is quick and nimble for anyone of any size. And weight has little to do with hand-eye coordination or arm strength. He has not been as good a defender this year as in the past but I suspect it has more to do with playing in unfamiliar environments, and more stress than he will admit. Players also go through fielding slumps as well as batting slumps.
It probably would be virtually impossible to replace Sandoval with a player equal to him in the combination of hitting and fielding skills.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jun 18, 2015 17:49:05 GMT -5
The so-called "decline" in Pablo Sandoval's performance over the past several years is entirely attributable to a declining ability to hit lefthanded pitching when batting righthanded. Well, that's a declining hitting skill, no? No, not if he can hit LHPs better batting lefthanded.
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