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Post by voiceofreason on Dec 1, 2021 9:23:10 GMT -5
Yup, add Hill who will probably break down in August, then have Paxton ready to add something in the 2nd half. Hopefully he can pitch meaningful innings next year but that would be a bonus based on most TJ comebacks. I would expect him to be very good in 23-24 but once again a guy who should probably be pulled in the 5th or so as he has never been a workhorse.
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 30, 2021 9:56:14 GMT -5
I take it you didn't read my post that quoted the Athletic. The one that has projected. 24 for 5, 22.5 for 6 and 21 for 7. It would explain your question. This is why I originally said the amount without a term doesn't tell us much. Bottom line is you are suggesting a blown out of proportion 32m aav is too much for the Sox. Well of course it is and nobody is projecting he is going to sign for that much. You have assumed that based on a reported number with no years attached to it. My argument is that he could be worth the lower projections in comparison to the SS at the top of the market. Like the projections above. This is all rumors. Projections don't take into account about opt outs. Everyone is looking at this through a Red Sox fans eyes. I'm looking at this through Baez's or his agents eyes. I'd be looking to at least match the last offer in spring training 8 months ago. Whether I get there now or a year or two from now. I will want to get there. Yeah you were looking at it thru Baez and his agents eyes, they aren't the ones dictating his market value. The market and hence those projections is what dictates your vaue which happened to be right on at 6 140.
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 30, 2021 8:30:05 GMT -5
Not Patriots but this is the only football thread so I have to ask our resident ND guy, what is with Kelly leaving for LSU? An ND coach choosing to leave for another program is historic…. I mean he got over 100m but my lord. Not only leaving ND but when they actually have a chance to get in the final 4 for the championship. It's all about the benjamins as you said, 100 million is hard to say no to.
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 30, 2021 8:25:50 GMT -5
Hate this signing for the Tigers as much as I like their ERod signing. Baez is not a good baseball player. Strikes out way too much and is the type of player good teams get away from. Thankfully the Sox are in bargin hunting mode and I hope they didn't even come close to offering this madness to Baez. "Not a good baseball player" If a team had a player like him at every position they would win 110 games every year.
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 29, 2021 7:32:24 GMT -5
It’s a great win, it’s a game they would have lost early in the year, last year and probably late 2019. Winning in this league is hard and really good teams win when not at their best. Mac Jones numbers are great in this game but he wasn’t great: he was off a lot today in uncharacteristic ways. Even a lot of his completions seemed high or off target. However, it’s a positive development he can throw for 300 yards when not as sharp as he normally is. I thought the same thing. Mac was off on a few balls and statistically still had a really good game. The WRs and him are starting to look a lot more in sinc and I think they deserve credit. That game, IMO, makes the Pats really look like a team that is getting better every week, the rest of the league has got to be shaking their heads. BB, after 1 down season, has really put together a very good team that could contend for a very improbable SB.
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 28, 2021 17:35:09 GMT -5
However you care to look at it in regards to how close the game really was doesn't change the fact it was a really really good win. I know for me I never felt like the Pats were going to lose the game at any point. They won by 23 and sure some of it was junk at the end of the game but that is their average over this win streak.
The important thing to me was that yes the Titans did a good job early in stopping the run but Mac was still able to move the sticks and get the Pats in a position to score. Lets not act like spoiled Pats fans and minimize the fact that they have won 6 in a row and have outdone expectations. Mac probably had his best game as a Patriot and his progress as a rookie has been remarkable.
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 28, 2021 11:06:10 GMT -5
I feel like at this point the Titans game is almost a must-win given how depleted they are and how bunched up the AFC is. It would really stink to lose that especially going into Buffalo next week - wouldn't be shocked if they end up with the 1 seed or miss the playoffs entirely. Love the parody this year so far in the NFL (AFC in particular). 100% they can’t lose this game - it’s a big game for them. Titans are not only missing their top 3 offensive play makers but have big losses on the defensive side of the ball also. Then if you look back to the beginning of the season they have lost 6,7 other guys to the IL that haven't come back. Kudos to them for still winning a bunch of games but they are seriously into the depth of the team at this point. This could be another 20 point win for the Pats if they play the same way they have been. Keep that one game at a time mentality and good things happen.
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 27, 2021 10:48:32 GMT -5
I mean, it's not like he doesn't have his moments. Just need to figure out how to repeat them with more consistency. Well I hope he finds the magic and pitches the way Ray did this year out of the blue but I would rather have Hill at 2.5.
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 27, 2021 9:28:51 GMT -5
Nice move for them, I think - they replace Conforto, maybe even get a slight upgrade, and gain a draft pick in the bargain. For a guy with negative dwar and a sometimes good bat those numbers seem ridiculous. I'll take Renfroe all day long.
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 27, 2021 8:54:34 GMT -5
True replace richards and perez with wacha and hill still makes sense. I'm not entirely sure they'd necessarily need to replace erod as sale does that in a way. Not saying that's the avenue I'd necessarily want them to go but basically sale/Houck/Whitlock should theoretically be a sufficient replacement for erod should they not sign a guy like stroman or find a trade Bloom likes for a legit middle rotation guy. If you listen to what Bloom says you come away with the sense that it makes more sense to think about the pitching staff in terms of the question "How are we going to put together 1400 innings?" rather than "How are we going to put together 5 starters and 8 relievers?"
Last season their IP leaders were:
Eovaldi - 182 Rodriguez - 158 Pivetta - 155 Richards - 137 Perez - 114 Whitlock - 73 Houck - 69
Sale threw 42. So between him, Whitlock, and Houck you might hope to get another 200 IP. That could indeed replace Rodriguez and then some, in theory, and Wacha could replace some of those Richards/Perez innings. But it's very unlikely everyone's going to be healthy all season, and all in all this looks like just treading water to me, and would lean to an uncomfortable degree on Eovaldi repeating his career year performance. I think they really need another solid 150 IP pitcher; maybe Stroman, maybe a trade target...
I like the idea of looking at it that way, putting together 1400 innings. It sounds like Billy Beane in the movie Moneyball when he is talking about replacing players production. It also plays into the 3,4 inning pitchers that are becoming more and more prevalent and I am not surprised. I would still add Hill to the staff for the same reason. Everyone is talking about replacing ERod without taking into consideration Sale is already doing that. Don't get me wrong I want them to go get a legit starter but maybe that isn't the plan unless they can get someone on their terms. I think piecing together a staff like that can work during the regular season but the Rays have proven that strong starting pitching is needed in the playoffs. The Sox need another top 3.
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 26, 2021 17:33:17 GMT -5
Can he be one of those guys who can dial it up for 3 innings and be another piggyback starter/reliever that they get 120-130 innings out of? We can hope I guess. I can't imagine the Sox are going to pencil him in as a regular starter.
Not a surprising addition and I expect more of the same but I would hope and expect they have much bigger things in mind. If not I will be more than disappointed.
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 26, 2021 12:37:19 GMT -5
If you're Josh McDaniels do you leave now? It would have to be so great team right? Bills end date is getting close and you now have a QB of the future now. If Andy Reid retires or something like that, yeah he's likely gone. Yet at this point Josh McDaniels sure seems like a head coach in waiting for me and the job just got a lot better. I'd love to know how involved Josh has become given the reports when he backed out of the Colts job. It's a little concerning to look at who is behind him and not see anyone that sticks out as a replacement. Who knows maybe their is a handshake deal that keeps him here but how long is he willing to wait, he is a young man still. Maybe Brian Hoyer is a future candidate for OC, been in and out of the system for a long time and I am sure he has learned a lot from all the other systems he has been in. Who knows if he has any interest but seems like the perfect candidate to be a OC. I would think he wouldn't need too much time as an asst. to be ready for it.
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 26, 2021 12:15:27 GMT -5
I am sure teams are struggling with the idea of giving a guy who has not always been able to stay healthy over 300 million dollars. It does seem like all of these top SS guys have a wart or two. For that reason and the fact that they are all out there in FA at the same time makes me think it is going to cost them.
Of course they are all looking at the Lindor deal and have visions of grandeur but I think they are all in for a surprise. There are five of them looking for huge deals and how many teams have the ability and interest on breaking the bank. We shall see but I can see that market turning into a buyers market when it is all said and done. The trepidation surrounding these negotiations for that kind of money has got to be really difficult when looking at the history of similar deals.
Combine that with front offices getting smarter about these deals and I can see none of them getting 30 on a 10 yr contract. Maybe that means the Sox get one of them and save money on a xander extension.
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 26, 2021 9:40:48 GMT -5
Hard to get excited about a 42yo FA, but this might be where things end up when the dust settles.... www.nbcsportsedge.com/baseball/mlb/player/18063/rich-hillPostives: - Proven big league pitcher - Potential cost effective replacement for ERod's innings - Veteran leadership for young pitchers (Whitlock, Houck, Pivetta, etc) - Local Negatives: - Short term solution - Potential for decreased work load with increased age could increase bullpen workload I have been pushing this for a while. He would most likely give the Sox 120-140 very good innings for about 2.5=3 million. Great track record.
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 25, 2021 9:09:38 GMT -5
Reading back through this thread, I am amazed how many folks seem to be Luxury Tax hawks. Of course, we have no idea what kind of a cluster the CBA and new Luxury Tax will be. But for reference, in 2018 the Sox were over the upper limit in the Luxury Tax. It cost them approximately $11M and their draft pick was moved down 10 places and they lost the requisite money for the fall in draft order. They also won The World Series. In 2019 they remained well above, albeit due to some ill-advised moves by Dave Dombrowski. We all know the implications and results of that. But now they find themselves in a much different spot. They've reset, their farm system is rated a top 10 and after 2022 they have huge money coming off the books resulting in commitments for roughly $57M-$80M with Arb increases added in. But the projected 2023 FA class is nowhere near as strong in pitching or up the middle infielders as this year's class. If one is going to spend over, this would be the year to do it. For those who say, "But the draft!!" I would offer that the Dodgers have spent up to or over the tax since 2011, finish high and still seem to draft very well. So it's not a cause and effect that if you're moved down or lose a little money, your draft will suck. It just requires all that "smart baseball" that I'm told Bloom brought with him. All that said, I am not advocating being reckless. But, if there is a pitcher or a position player who would make a difference for years to come, both internally and externally (i.e. extensions for Devers? Xander? A signing of Correa? Ray?), then this would be the time to go for it. The Red Sox could definitely go over the Tax Limit this year, but they need to see what the NEW RULES look like. What is the tax? What effect does it have on draft picks? How much international money do they loose? There is a reason that many of the most costly FAs have not signed yet. Maybe the Red Sox sign a $300,000,000 SS after they find out what the ramifications are. Or maybe they spend big on the pitching staff. Considering where the Sox are right now it terms of talent, needs and current salaries this certainly seems like a good time to go over the caps. Of course it also depends on the CBA. I will be disappointed if they don't and I think Sox nation is watching closely to see if they do.
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 24, 2021 10:13:12 GMT -5
I don’t expect the Red Sox to trade for any “expensive” players. In this case, the expense being prospects. They are still rebuilding the farm system, they will stick to the plan of trying to find value players. Yes, the system is much deeper and stronger but it still lacks in higher end impact players. Don’t expect them to deal from the top of their system for anyone. I simply don’t see it happening at this point in Chaims rule. If the Sox aren't going to trade anyone from the top of the system what do you suggest they do with Duran? It seems to me that it will be difficult for the Sox to give him the playing time he needs in Boston to develop into a major league impact player. Will playing in AAA be enough? He should end up being a good player but does that happen in Boston? I just think their are going to be some serious growing pains for him that will make it hard for him in Boston. Who knows maybe I'm wrong and last years cameo was not an indicator of what is to come but between his D and at the plate he looked like he had a ways to go. Since this is a thread on the rotation I will end this entry by saying I think the Sox farm might look pretty good with guys who will be able to contribute in some way. They are lacking someone with top of the rotation expectations but Groome could surprise us and take a step in that direction this year. He has had to go thru a lot but has survived and was looking better and better as the season went on.
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 23, 2021 19:37:15 GMT -5
Based on pitching alone Schilling has always been on the cusp. It is more about regular season vs post season with him. If you want to weight post season higher then he is in, if not he is marginal. Although I despise his politics I will not hold that against him. If he deserves to be in based on what he did on the mound then he should be in, fact is that can be argued. Beyond his politics I think he was just generally disliked based on his personality. He's 23rd all-time in B-Ref WAR among 20th and 21st century P's, so I don't think he's borderline based on his pitching. I wouldn't withhold a vote from someone because I disagree with him on highway spending or taxation. Those are political questions. He has said filthy things about Muslims, the transgender community and others. He assumed Adam Jones was lying about being called a racial slur and supported an attempt to overthrow the United States government. The guy's a POS in many ways that have nothing to do politics. Just for shits and giggles go research Ty Cobb.
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 23, 2021 18:57:46 GMT -5
A lot of tough calls for me on that ballot. A case can be made for Helton, Kent and Jones. I find them each to be a little short. But I wouldn't object to any of them, particularly Kent and Helton (133 OPS-plus and 61.8 WAR put to rest the notion that he thrived just because of Coors.) I'd go with Rolen and his 70 b-Ref WAR and Ortiz. My guess is that Ortiz comes up short this year. Schilling? Strictly on his pitching, he's an easy HOFer and should have been in on his first try. Some people take issue with voters who refuse to support him based on character. I don't. The HOF voting rules make it clear that voters can consider character, so I can't blame someone who chooses to do that. My feeling prior to Jan. 6 was that while I wouldn't withhold a vote for him on character issues, I understood those who did. His support of the riot was the proverbial final straw for me. I wouldn't vote for him now. YMMV. Based on pitching alone Schilling has always been on the cusp. It is more about regular season vs post season with him. If you want to weight post season higher then he is in, if not he is marginal. Although I despise his politics I will not hold that against him. If he deserves to be in based on what he did on the mound then he should be in, fact is that can be argued. Beyond his politics I think he was just generally disliked based on his personality.
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 23, 2021 15:50:55 GMT -5
Now you are the one pushing a 32m aav cost based on absolutely nothing to support it. Nobody anywhere has suggested that is what he will get or even close. If he where to hit 300 with an OBP of 370 along with GG D then maybe that is what people would be talking about. But he has not and that is why he is the more affordable SS available, he isn't perfect. That is what has people interested, the thought that he can be had for less than the top guys. Which is basically a universal thought both from analysts and people here on SP. Why would Baez turn down 160 million to settle for less in free agency? There is something to support it. Past offers. If he accepts a 4 year deal, it probably comes with opt outs because that's the only thing that probably makes sense for him. I take it you didn't read my post that quoted the Athletic. The one that has projected. 24 for 5, 22.5 for 6 and 21 for 7. It would explain your question. This is why I originally said the amount without a term doesn't tell us much. Bottom line is you are suggesting a blown out of proportion 32m aav is too much for the Sox. Well of course it is and nobody is projecting he is going to sign for that much. You have assumed that based on a reported number with no years attached to it. My argument is that he could be worth the lower projections in comparison to the SS at the top of the market. Like the projections above.
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 23, 2021 15:38:30 GMT -5
Would you rather replace Xander at SS with a) Derek Jeter b) Carlos Correa c) Manny Machado For me… tie. I don't get what you are saying.
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 23, 2021 11:20:50 GMT -5
Yeah, I don't get the postseason failure angle. Four starts. One dud. A strong World Series start with no days of rest which resulted in 5 shutout innings and a bad 6th when Cora mistakenly left him in too long - an obvious mistake that Cora admitted to and was kicking himself for. The dud against Tampa in the ALDS, and two strong starts, against TB and Houston. Honestly, if the ALCS went 7 games, I feel they would have had a legit chance with E-Rod pitching. He was pitching very well at that point. So this he's an October failure doesn't really hold water. You can make a much better case for Sale being an October disappointment as he's only had 2 good starts in the post-season including his final one where he pitched well for 5 innings and then ran out of gas in the 6th and had the bullpen torch the game from there on in. Either way Detroit got a highly affordable contract for a guy who's a decent pitcher even when his numbers don't match up with his his peripherals - and he's only 28. I mean, really, who better is out there on the market for the money and youth that Bloom can pick up? Otherwise you trade assets for a pitcher and you went from E-Rod and assets (for something else) to replacement and less assets. Either way, I really don't know what Bloom saw that makes him thing there's better out there than E-Rod than won't cost a fortune. I mean, is Bloom really going to give Scherzer crazy money or pay the Cy Young premium amount for Ray? Highly doubtful. So who out there is better that's not going to cost them more? I don't think Matz is better and Rodon was great last year, but if people worry about E-Rod's injury history, he's got nothing on Rodon or a lot of the others out there. I guess I really don't understand what Bloom is looking at here. Yeah, Whitlock and Houck can take on key rotation spots, but neither has ever pitching anywhere near 150 innings before in a season. I guess it's wait and see but unless they sign Matz this week (and I wouldn't trade E-Rod for Matz), we'll be waiting quite awhile, assuming there's a freeze after Dec 1st, to see what happens. I agree with all of this. And yet it wasn't just Bloom; 28 other GMs implicitly passed on Eduardo at the price Detroit was willing to pay, including the Angels, who were willing to give Syndergaard a pretty silly contract, and the Astros with their very high-risk deal for Verlander.
I guess the industry consensus is just lower on him than a lot of us are... I just wish someone out there could explain why.
As you guys know I agree with you on ERod. But he isn't overpowering, he nibbles around the plate a lot and he has to have really good control to be effective. Their are lots of times where he doesn't have it and maybe teams around the league don't see that aging well. He also has a history of tipping pitches. Like I said, I agree with you guys and I am just trying to find the warts that Gms might be hung up on. That being said I think he will have a lot of surplus value in this contract for Detroit.
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 23, 2021 10:35:51 GMT -5
This is from the Athletic and seems to be inline with most I have read for Baez.
"That also aligns with finding a compromise point between the earlier proposed low point ($17 million per season) and the proposed high point ($25 million per). The longer the deal is for Báez, the lower the average annual value. You can imagine a seven-year deal at $21 million per year ($147 million total) or six at $22.5 million per year ($135 million total) or five at $24 million each ($120 million total)."
Which is why I said 25, I would hope and expect the Sox would rather go short and high rather than long and low. And as far as I am concerned he is worth it and has proven to be. All the guys who are rated higher have their own warts but would be substantially more. I would expect that if we compared all of the top FA SSs numbers vs cost 3,4 years down the road Baez wouldn't be at the top but he wouldn't be at the bottom either. He has been healthy, consistent and I think he could learn some plate discipline in Boston like he showed in NY. Who knows but it could happen on a team that emphasizes that and a team with more offense around him.
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 23, 2021 10:30:34 GMT -5
How much weight does that tweet make without having years attached? I think Javy is close to a 25maav player and that is probably what he gets but years matter also. Not sure how much weight but I'm sure they're not making it up. At 5 years it would be 32 million AAV for that offer to Baez. That sound like a better deal to everyone? Baez being the highest paid player on the team? Now you are the one pushing a 32m aav cost based on absolutely nothing to support it. Nobody anywhere has suggested that is what he will get or even close. If he where to hit 300 with an OBP of 370 along with GG D then maybe that is what people would be talking about. But he has not and that is why he is the more affordable SS available, he isn't perfect. That is what has people interested, the thought that he can be had for less than the top guys. Which is basically a universal thought both from analysts and people here on SP.
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 23, 2021 9:47:19 GMT -5
Potentially no bargain and Baez gets more overvalued. Those are just opinions that don't really have any real information to justify. Who has overvalued Baez? Nobody yet. Javy Baez has already overvalued himself starting last season. You think he's going to take less than half what the Cubs offered a half year ago? How much weight does that tweet make without having years attached? I think Javy is close to a 25maav player and that is probably what he gets but years matter also.
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 23, 2021 9:17:47 GMT -5
This is also why I wouldn't mind a Baez deal. If the Sox can get him on a shorter deal for a reasonable aav he could be a very good addition. And the Sox get to avoid the huge 10 yr 300 million dollar contract that others are looking for. Baez could very well provide the same war as Correa or Story over the next 3,4 years for a lot less money. On a side not I think the big time FAs available are not finding the market they were hoping for. Like Correa looking for that contract, I don't think it is out there. I think the Lindor deal was a blip that the Mets were willing to overpay and already regret it. Teams have learned these aren't great deals and are using some restraint. Baez has just as much interest and is just as likely to get 150 million plus. There is potentially is no bargain there. In fact, the Correa case gets pushed even more as Baez gets more overvalued. Potentially no bargain and Baez gets more overvalued. Those are just opinions that don't really have any real information to justify. Who has overvalued Baez? Nobody yet.
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