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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 23, 2021 8:45:13 GMT -5
Out of the three I went Baez. I want to sign Devers and X long term and I don’t think 5-8 years from now we want $100 million tied up in 3 infielders. Baez will improve the infield D tremendously and adds 25-30 HR pop. He’s essentially Renfroe at a premium position. If you can get him on a 4 year deal I’d be happy with him at SS. I do think if he’s signed Renfroe is gone and we find a higher OBA in the OF somehow. This is also why I wouldn't mind a Baez deal. If the Sox can get him on a shorter deal for a reasonable aav he could be a very good addition. And the Sox get to avoid the huge 10 yr 300 million dollar contract that others are looking for. Baez could very well provide the same war as Correa or Story over the next 3,4 years for a lot less money. On a side not I think the big time FAs available are not finding the market they were hoping for. Like Correa looking for that contract, I don't think it is out there. I think the Lindor deal was a blip that the Mets were willing to overpay and already regret it. Teams have learned these aren't great deals and are using some restraint.
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 22, 2021 17:43:54 GMT -5
Listening to Chaim + ERod today, I do not get the impression that the Red Sox had much interest in bringing him back Any sense as to why? Bloom knows a lot more than I do and I'm sure they have their reasons, but I've really struggled to understand their thinking here. Maybe the Sox saw him as someone who nibbled too much and wasn't always on enough or confident enough to attack the strike zone. He could be frustrating a good percentage of the time. Then he was really good a lot also. I think most of us think the contract was reasonable but it doesn't seem like the Sox did. I think ERod in the end just wanted to move on as the Sox weren't committed enough to him.
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 22, 2021 7:20:12 GMT -5
Bills, Titans, GBay and almost the Ravens all go down. Who is good this year? I mean really once again their is a bottom team beating a top team, every week it happens. Pats will be top 5 with all the losses. When they were shooting themselves in the foot constantly and I called them a bad team….I was wrong They might be the best team at this point. KC is the team in the AFC that concerns me and even then we usually play Mahomes well BB is just once again proving to everyone that he is the goat of coaches. When he went out and spent all that money in FA he was simply loading the team up with talent that was lacking, he recognized it was a team that didn't have enough real players so he did something about it. Historically that doesn't work as teams rarely turn "winning the offseason" into actually winning during the season but other teams don't have Bill. To be honest it was partly BBs fault in the first place that they didn't have the talent as he had some bad drafts recently. That changed this year also, obviously. We will see very soon if this team is for real or not as the schedule will pit them against the supposed contenders in the coming weeks. If they go 3-1 during this stretch then I believe anything is possible. The one thing they have going for them right now is a group of guys that has bought in to working hard, paying attention to the details and staying focused. They are believing in the whole do your job mantra and with the result of winning it is cementing their belief in Bills coaching and continuing to work hard. It is great to see how tight a group they are and that they are having fun, winning will do that. Especially for a bunch of new guys who may not be used to winning as much. I also think many of them are completely under the spell of playing for BB and the Patriot lore. Selflessness and winning. Of course they had a great draft
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 21, 2021 16:18:10 GMT -5
Bills, Titans, GBay and almost the Ravens all go down. Who is good this year? I mean really once again their is a bottom team beating a top team, every week it happens. Pats will be top 5 with all the losses.
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 20, 2021 12:34:43 GMT -5
Interesting thoughts. FWIW, I don't think stashing Arauz is a problem with a 30-man roster. They should have sufficient space. Also, I don't think there's been any discussion that they wouldn't allow trades. We'll see though. ----- I'll be honest, the Sox get absolutely boned by the temporary realignment. In addition to the Yankees and Rays, they now also have the Nats, Braves, Phillies and Mets. It'll be fun to see the Astros and Dodgers beat up on each other, but there's not a whole lot else happening out west, while the Central will be the Twins and White Sox beating up on everyone, probably. The Red Sox will have to get really lucky to do much this year. If they're not going to do well, 2020 is the perfect time to be lousy. The season should be quite brief. Better to watch 50 games of struggle than 162. They'd still get the better draft position in 2021. Whatever they do, just don't go 25-25. It doesn't accomplish much. This aged well.
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 20, 2021 12:22:23 GMT -5
Speaking of Andrew Heaney, can you imagine the uproar here if the Sox gave him an 8.5m contract.
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 20, 2021 10:46:46 GMT -5
Does Carlos Correa following a bunch of Tigers on instagram after visiting there constitute a reason to think he could be going there?
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 20, 2021 10:23:09 GMT -5
I’m a sucker for power/speed combos. Alfonso Soriano won me some fantasy leagues back in the day so I can’t help it. That 40/40 season eligible at 2B… I destroyed my fantasy league that year Mullins and his 30/30 put me over the top this year and Perez with 48 hrs at catcher didn't hurt either.
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 19, 2021 16:51:18 GMT -5
I am pretty sure most on here would not consider this good news. Myself I really wouldn't mind a Baez signing as I see him as a defensive upgrade with a very good bat. It depends on the contract. And does he move X off SS. Yeah, I'd be one of those people. I can imagine him hacking away at pitches getting himself out, slumping, and being a target of the boobirds. If he thought New York was rough, then he's in for a rude awakening in Boston where booing happens to the hometeam when they don't perform. Honestly, I don't want another guy to watch where there's a ton of ABs where I'm left muttering to myself in exasperation, "Why the hell did he swing at that damn pitch?!! Yes, he might actually be a better option at SS than X and we'll see how X feels about a move to 2b, although the easier thing (not necessarily better) to do is to simply plug Baez in at 2b. Because I really don't want Bloom to sign Baez I guess I should anticipate the press conference announcing him as a Red Sox player. All I can say is that if the Sox sign him I hope Cora is able to reach him and convince him to show patience at the plate. I can't prove it but I do think Cora played a part in Kiké Hernandez suddenly becoming Mr. Patient in the second half of the season and I suspect that he might have been in Devers' ears about not going fishing too much. If they bring in Baez I certainly hope they bring back Schwarber so they can have a guy in the lineup with the kind of hitting approach that I think they need more of. I agree with much of that. And Baez did it for 2 months last season with the Mets, I think he is capable. With Cora and the whole team trying to preach patience at the plate I think it is possible. Wouldn't it make sense that if he is surrounded with good hitters that it helps him. Fact is his OPS is around 830 for the last 4 full seasons, not counting 2020. And he won a GG during that time, he is a very good player.
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 19, 2021 13:05:49 GMT -5
News out of Puerto Rico has Javi Baez in Boston these last 2-3 days. Met with Cora and team officials and also visited Fenway and parts around the city. I am pretty sure most on here would not consider this good news. Myself I really wouldn't mind a Baez signing as I see him as a defensive upgrade with a very good bat. It depends on the contract. And does he move X off SS.
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 19, 2021 12:34:31 GMT -5
Is it possible to by out Bogaerts opt out? He is signed through '26, essentially a 5 year $100m contract paying him $20m each year, but he can opt out after '22 and walk away from 4 years $80m and become a free agent. Can the Red Sox re do his contract & pay him more, say, 5 years $125m and eliminate the opt out but still let him become a free agent after '26? Would it have to be more? Could it be less? Is this realistic or would his agent just hang up? Is it worth trying? i think if you are gonna do something like that, just rip it up totally and renegotiate for the long term deal. The Sox don't want to do that for 21 and 22 because those years will be more expensive, but if they want him here long term, they might find a workable deal. I am kind of certain that if he opts out, which sounds like a given, he is gone. I really don't have any confidence that Bloom would negotiate any Lindor like contract. This could make sense in a few ways. Lets X know the Sox care about him being here as much as he wants to stay, good for the relationship and him being a leader. Which I actually don't think that is a strength of his. Also spread the AAV out over an extra season.
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 19, 2021 11:30:26 GMT -5
nesn.com/2021/11/chaim-bloom-reveals-red-soxs-plan-to-replace-eduardo-rodriguez/So, just how will the Red Sox replace Rodriguez? “We certainly want to have more guys who are capable of starting games in the big leagues and doing it well,” chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom told reporters Wednesday, via MassLive. “We’re not too focused on how famous they are. It’s more about what we think they can do. With that said, certainly a lot of the guys who could do the job well are also well-known. We’re focusing on those guys, too. We need to cover the whole map here and make sure we’re involved in everything that could help us.” What I take away from this is that Chaim could be focusing on guys who have not been straight up successful starters in the majors. Guys who have enough stuff to have always been considered starters or future starters but haven't quite made it. These are the guys who can fill up a BP with an ability to get thru the lineup once and pitch more than 1 inning. Or become high leverage relievers. A guy like Richards or Rich Hill comes to mind. It is the TBay way and it is less expensive, you just have to be willing to go thru a lot of guys. So do they bring in 5,6,7 guys that cost 20 million? In this strategy you are sticking to the 5,6 inning starters along with piggybacks etc etc. I still think they need another starter who "could" be capable of going 7 so they have 4 of those guys but that is where Houck and Whitlock could come into play. If they pass on all the big names they will have no choice but to go in this direction. Positives would be your building a staff that helps both the rotation and the pen, hopefully!!
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 19, 2021 10:34:46 GMT -5
I've got a lot more confidence in Bloom than I do my own opinions so I'm pleased the Sox let E-Rod walk. To be honest I always felt watching him pitch was agonizing so I won't miss him at all. The "unlucky"-"hurt by the Sox IF defense" argument has merit but the same could be said for the entire pitching staff at least as far as the IF defense part of the equation goes and even the "unlucky" part is defense related as it is saying a lot of balls hit off him which might have been outs ended up as hits. In regards to being unlucky and how good ERod actually is. He was in the 90th percentile in hard hit % and 87th in exit velocity this past season. He also had a very high swing and miss %. Those stats all usually add up to a guy at the top of the league in standard pitching stats. He wasn't for whatever reasons. But I am with you on Bloom and the staff knowing better than I do so c'est la vie to Eduardo, good luck in Detroit. Where I expect he will do well.
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 19, 2021 8:38:21 GMT -5
You guys remember the interception Mac threw and him being right in the middle of making the tackle? He is a football player!!! What is Teddy Bridgewater?? A $#%%@ !!!!
It looks like they won't allow it to be viewed here, just hit it up on youtube.
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 19, 2021 7:45:39 GMT -5
I was going to mention how Van Noy has been dealing with a groin strain and how big it would be to have someone opposite Judon being a threat. This extra time off will only help him.
The Pats have a break now after the thursday night game and soon will get their bye week. Given their overall good health so far I can see this as being a major plus as other teams won't have this luxury. Just one more favorable factor headed into the home stretch of the season. They have some serious tests coming but my confidence in them is growing every week. The first big test will come after this short break but the Pats are usually better with extra time to prepare so I am bullish on beating the Titans.
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 18, 2021 21:48:26 GMT -5
I think this guy Kyle Dugger will be going to a Pro Bowl or two at some point. Great 2nd rd pick out of D2 leads the team in tackles and is having a great game. Pats are strong at safety with those 3!
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 18, 2021 14:19:23 GMT -5
I just hope they don't play down to their competition tonight. They should win handily, but the Pats have a history of just mailing it in to inferior teams. That could bite them. I don't think they'll open the playbook for Atlanta. They'll do that against Tennessee. If they can take on the Titans, then the Buffalo games should be epic. This probably the most interesting season since 2001. The Patriots have a history of just mailing it in to inferior teams and playing down to their competition?? Come on man what team have you been watching? I mean really, the Pats have broken every record there is when it comes to winning over the last 20 years right. Beating the teams you are supposed to beat is a hallmark of BBs Pats team. They have absolutely dominated the teams they were supposed to beat over that time, just ask Buffalo and Miami fans. Maybe if you are talking about this year but that was while they were still putting the team together early in the season and it was really just the Miami game. A game they would have won without a terrible fumble in the last minute of the game. Seems to me like this game tonight is the type of game the Pats have been winning for 20 years now.
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 18, 2021 7:29:54 GMT -5
It didn't dawn on me that someone would be coming up with their own projections and using them to make a point. Still the truth of the matter is that 95% of all projections show a regression in performance for every player, which can't be accurate. From last year's Red Sox roster, steamer projects Danny Santana, Franchy Cordero, Marwin Gonzalez, Matt Andriese, Garrett Richards, and Martin Perez to be better than last season. Are you noticing a trend? Basically it projects reversion to the mean for most players, so bad players figure to improve and good players figure to get worse. But if you only look up the projections for the good players you'll just see the negative regressions. There could be some truth to this for sure but it still isn't very accurate in my mind. For example I look at baseball reference a lot for information and think they do a good job. Their projection for Chris Sale next season is that he pitches 80 innings with an era of 4.11 and a whip of 1.25. So what am i supposed to think of that? Is there a GM in baseball that looks at that and says, sounds about right to me. Now of course GM's don't look at BR for information but that is not my point. My point is that in no way comes close to what Sale will do next yr unless he gets injured again, so is that what they are projecting? And if that is their projection for him how can I take any other projection seriously? It isn't just Sale, it is the vast majority of players. All I can say is they are not very accurate from what I have gleaned thru years and years of looking at it closely.
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 17, 2021 19:11:46 GMT -5
I don't think your being too bullish on Sale, I also expect him to be back on top. That projection also has Houck with a higher war. That would be great for Houck but this projection for Sale is a joke to me. So many projections are that I take them with a grain of salt, meaningless. And in my mind it blows holes in the whole analytic revolution if these projections are what they come up with. Granted pitching is hard to predict but projecting Sale to have that kind of year has no merit. One guy on the internet coming up with these numbers off the top of his head shouldn't be enough to blow holes in the entire analytics revolution. Steamer pegs Sale for 3.6 fWAR, which feels a bit low, but as he hasn't topped that since 2018 I think it's understandable. It didn't dawn on me that someone would be coming up with their own projections and using them to make a point. Still the truth of the matter is that 95% of all projections show a regression in performance for every player, which can't be accurate.
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 17, 2021 12:14:12 GMT -5
That seems low for sale in terms of innings and WAR but I guess if he were to only throw 130 innings that WAR number is probably in the ballpark. I guess I just don't count sale as injured anymore. He came back pitched relatively decently for a few months working his way back and now has what should be a full normal offseason. Perhaps I'm bullish on sale but it would not surprise me to see him back to 2015-2017 sale who was over 200 IP each year. 2018 sale was probably the best pitcher in the league that year and I can't really expect that, though once again it wouldn't surprise me either. I don't think your being too bullish on Sale, I also expect him to be back on top. That projection also has Houck with a higher war. That would be great for Houck but this projection for Sale is a joke to me. So many projections are that I take them with a grain of salt, meaningless. And in my mind it blows holes in the whole analytic revolution if these projections are what they come up with. Granted pitching is hard to predict but projecting Sale to have that kind of year has no merit.
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 17, 2021 11:55:45 GMT -5
If Sale has a war of only 2.4 next year I will become a MFY fan.
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 17, 2021 11:48:57 GMT -5
Their is always risk in going after an International player like this but it is purely financial and one the Sox have been open to in the past. The last time it didn't work out so well with Rusney and maybe that was enough for John Henry to say no. But this guy has everything you are looking for in a player when it comes to the analytics and the production. On top of that he will be going into next season at 27. Who knows what it will cost but he looks like a guy who will be very good for someone.
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 17, 2021 11:30:02 GMT -5
How much is Scherzer going to get? 38 to 40/3 years? I bet it is close to that.
Like I usually say about FA acquisitions, it depends on the deal right. Do we want Scherzer on that contract?
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 17, 2021 11:00:49 GMT -5
Once again I will say I am not pushing the idea of signing Baez. Just pointing out that if they did their are good reasons for it. People want to point to his negatives and overlook just how good he has actually been. If those negatives weren't there he would be a 30+aav player. Per Bwar he was a 6.4 and a 6.6 in 2018 and 2019, 2020 he sucked and in 2021 he was 4.5.
The top FA SS will go for a lot more than him for a reason. But if you add that glove to the infield and that bat to the offense the Sox are instantly a lot better. And if that's the direction Chaim decides to go in then I will look forward to his impact.
The question in regards to X and salaries lies in how much Baez would cost and asking X to take a team friendly deal, IMO anyway.
Regardless of which direction the Sox go in I have full faith in Bloom at this point. Staying at the top of the East is not an easy task and the Sox will need to spend some money to do so. I hope they make the right choices but only time answers that.
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 17, 2021 10:28:51 GMT -5
Read this earlier in the day and was going to post it here, beat me to it. I liked the Tie Domi story the most. For a guy you love to hate it gives you a reason to like him. Funny how most of these tough guy enforcer types are actually great teammates.
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