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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 16, 2021 16:45:57 GMT -5
As always it depends on price for me. I think at the right price he could be the SS that moves X over to 2nd. He isn't perfect but if he was he would be 30+m right. He brings great defense and a bat that has a lot of pop for the position. If the Sox see those numbers with the Mets and think they can help him go in that direction I can see the interest. Another guy from PR could be a fit. He also has a career .307 obp. Count me out on that. Cant even call him a 3 outcome hitter with an obp like that. Just not a fan of his game for just about any price. He will have a war of 5 and all you care about is OBP? Kiki was a low OBP player also and had a rough start adapting but ended up with a 337. Baez was just 374 with the Mets for 49 games so he might already be adapting. Baez and Xander are very similar in value, X brings more at the plate while Baez does more in the field. I'm not pushing Baez per se but at the right price he is a very good player with 2 mid 6 war seasons and a SS and a GG. The problem could be that whatever you pay him has an affect on what you pay X and Raffy.
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 16, 2021 16:09:40 GMT -5
As always it depends on price for me. I think at the right price he could be the SS that moves X over to 2nd. He isn't perfect but if he was he would be 30+m right. He brings great defense and a bat that has a lot of pop for the position. If the Sox see those numbers with the Mets and think they can help him go in that direction I can see the interest. Another guy from PR could be a fit.
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 16, 2021 15:43:32 GMT -5
Big money to be had in sports teams.
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 16, 2021 15:33:53 GMT -5
there is no one who has a better memory than Champs....i get amazed by it, honestly. I am with you, I would never be a good eyewitness. LOL. Thanks Jerry! I can't remember half the things I'm supposed to remember - my wife can vouch for that. lol But the Red Sox? Somehow my memory pulls things up. Remembering, it always surprises me the things that I can and those I can't for the life of me. But Champs you bring up moments from 30+ years ago with the Sox that I never remembered at all. Makes me wonder if you have ever had a drink in your life, haha. You and Eric with little details from long ago, always interesting. I am beginning to think the Sox pitching staff is going to be interesting next year also. It is early yet and the prices seem reasonable for the Sox to land someone but there seems to be a lot of competition for pitching, I wonder where it is going to go. Maybe they go the trade route. I won't stop thinking about ERod and that contract until each year goes by and I watch the results. I have a feeling he is going to have great value at that price. Thor was also a favorite of mine. The Berrios deal looks reasonable to me also. Maybe we see a lot more fireworks before the new CBA.
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 16, 2021 11:40:24 GMT -5
If this was poker this just seems like a bad bet. You pay top dollar in both cost and a top pick for little chance of an actual return. What is the value of that pick? 2,3,4 million then add the contract. Slim chance it returns that value and even if it does you get no return on the risk you took. Just a bad bet and that is coming from someone who is high on Thor. Why not at least give yourself a chance to get a return on the gamble? Historically TJ guys don't really get all the way back until yr 2 anyway.
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 16, 2021 10:57:40 GMT -5
I like the thinking but my general feeling, in 2022 and with this FO, is that planning around having most of the 2021 roster back is hazardous. One of ownership's reported reasons for moving on from DD was that he kept too much of the 2018 roster -- a historic team, no less -- intact in 2019, resulting in what they considered to be an unacceptable downturn. That said, I think KH has proven that he belongs in the lineup every day that he's available, regardless of where he plays (I prefer him in CF or RF). His positional flexibility is surely a big reason why Chaim targeted him last off-season (along with Marwin and Santana), to enable this kind of tinkering, and it's why everyone expects the Sox to bid for Chris Taylor this winter. However, I don't think Arroyo and Duran earned nearly as much, especially not Duran. Arroyo's defense has earned him a shot at more ABs but his plate discipline will need to improve (career 25% K/6% BB and bigger gap in 2021) if he's going to take the next step toward a regular role. And obviously he has to stay healthy. Meanwhile, Duran hasn't proven anything more than he can uppercut AAA pitching way out of Polar Park. Only one AAA season so far but in 93 games (45 home, 48 road), his home/road splits are remarkable and not necessarily in a good way. He was also totally lost at the plate in a Boston uniform (I'm still trying to un-see that hideous hands-apart batting grip he used for multiple games) and is below-average in CF, so I'm going to pump the brakes on any firm plans for him to be on the big league roster in 2022 when everyone is healthy. He could also stand to improve his plate discipline, particularly with more walks, considering his wheels. Yes, I want him to get more opportunities and expect something on the order of the 107 ABs he got in 2021 as a fill-in but I'm not ready to design any platoons around him. I love his upside but I'm not terribly confident (30%?) that he ever becomes a big-league regular. Ultimately, I think roster movement this winter is more likely to throw obstacles in Arroyo's and Duran's paths to more playing time with BOS (i.e. guys will be signed/traded for at their positions or they'll be traded), as opposed to creating semi-regular platoon roles for them. If they're still in the org in 2022, I will be pretty surprised if Duran makes the OD roster, while I would expect Arroyo to start the season as the UT. For all the reasons you state about Duran it is why I look at him as a good trade piece to a team that can afford to let him get the ABs and playing time to develop, like the A's or Marlins. We all saw how hard it was to watch Dalbec develop/struggle this year in a season with low expectations. How hard would it be on a team with high expectations? Duran just looks to me like someone who isn't going to be very good in the short run. Maybe if he displayed really good D in CF you can give him some rope but between bad D and ABs how do they work him in. Include him in a trade along with someone else to land someone like Mannea. On the other hand I think Arroyo showed enough to be optimistic about his future value if he can just stay on the field. Do all these ticky tacky injuries mean something or was it just bad luck?
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 16, 2021 10:06:10 GMT -5
UMASS, curious if you are changing your opinion of Bourne at all as this season progresses. Why are you poking the bear?? This is going to lead to another 2 page 20 post diatribe that is going to derail the thread for days. You guys are like 2 8 year old brothers fighting over who gets the bigger piece of cake.
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 16, 2021 9:57:14 GMT -5
Dan is one of, if not the best analyst out there right now: Agreed, Orlofsky is the best out there right now. I saw this the other day on espn in a different presentation, thing is Orlofsky pulls stuff like this out every week. And every week it seems like he has one of these for Mac. Mac graduated Bama in 2.5 years with a 4.0 and then got his masters. We can debate the difficulty of academics at Bama but it is more than that when it comes to the workload on top of the grades. Mac is one smart cookie and it shows every week. Remember the beginning of the season when he was running for his life, getting hit on every play and the Oline was a sieve? I do and I remember Mac still doing a pretty good job back there. Now he is getting time and making plays over and over. Three drives over 90 yards and another of 83 against a team that had a top 5 D, impressive to say the least.
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 16, 2021 7:37:21 GMT -5
Red Sox current thinking could include the Sox pitching prospects and MLB ready starting pitching prospects could tie into this. Whitlock Houck Seabold All ready by 2022. Mata Ward All should be ready by 2023. All of these guys have the potential to fit Eduardo's production and the 5 year deal would have been kind of a payroll speed bump with all these mid to back rotation types in the rotation. The Sox will probably look for a 1 or 2 stop gap type. Manea. Matz. Something like that be my guess. Also. Eduardo for all his reliability, had a hard time coming through in the post season. I couldn't get over that in his time here. One good postseason start and really nothing else. I think that could have been a factor also. Looking for a guy with a higher ceiling in the post-season. Add- Groome figures to be in this equation at some point unless he's traded. Although I love your optimism and would like to believe that the Sox have what it takes to build a solid rotation within their farm system I have my doubts. Maybe Whitlock and Houck can become solid and Seabold could also possibly be something valuable which would all be great. But you include Mata and Ward with the mention of 2023 and being ready. Ready for what, double A. Neither Mata or Ward has been successful beyond high A and they are coming off TJ surgery. It would be awesome if they get back on their path to the majors but that path doesn't look like it will be 2023. Groome on the other hand I think could surprise and be a factor sooner rather than later.
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 15, 2021 18:59:36 GMT -5
Given that Richards was worth only 1 fWAR, it would require the Red Sox to trade Whitlock (1.6), Houck (2.2) and Pivetta (2.2). That would upset me. But bringing back Richards on a cheap deal to me the 6th starter or long man wouldn't be a bad move at all. Pivetta, incidentally, with his 4.28 FIP and 4.42 steamer projection for 2022, is a good example of a 2 WAR pitcher - i.e., what the Tigers just paid Eduardo Rodriguez to be over the next 2 or 5 years.
ADD: Rodriguez has a career postseason FIP of 3.74 and a career postseason ERA of 6.35, and can we all just save ourselves some time by assuming that everything who thought he pitched well this season also thinks he's been fine in the playoffs and everyone who thinks he sucked this season also thinks he's sucked in the playoffs?
I find it interesting that 95% of projections I see have a player regressing from the previous years numbers.
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 15, 2021 18:51:15 GMT -5
I disagree. How many teams win the World Series without having a true ace? I'm sure it happens but great pitching wins in October and that is the Sox aim. Who knows maybe that is why they let ERod go, they have their eyes set on a bigger prize. Either way I really hope your opinion isn't the case moving forward. I just don't think that meshes well with the strategy of being a WS contender every season. Unless they start trading the Yorkes, Mayers and Casas's from the farm system to land a top 10 pitching prospect or 2 how else are they going to get an ace. Utility of a top pitcher aside, the World Series just ended less than two weeks ago, and the Atlanta Braves won it. Maybe you should have highlighted the next sentence also. Does 4.7 war qualify as an ace?
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 15, 2021 16:37:28 GMT -5
I never bought that weight they had listed and I heard thrown around. His combine wt was listed at 229 or so and their is no way a RB puts that much wt on between the combine and the season unless they got fat, not happening. I wonder why they ballooned it.
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 15, 2021 16:28:00 GMT -5
I was typing as the above was posted. Good timing
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 15, 2021 16:27:05 GMT -5
With the rumors or news that Oakland is looking to trade out their impressive young talent before they become too expensive I have been wondering about values. Of course they will be looking to reload their farm system so what is the actual values to be considered when trading an established player with 1 or 2 years of control vs prospects with 6. Of course it depends on the prospects but I am thinking more about guys who are close to being in the majors like Casas. What would Casas get the Sox from the A's? Six years of control for Casas vs 2 yrs of say Montas or Mannea?
Maybe this deserves its own thread as it is a completely different conversation that I think many here would be interested in. The idea of trading Downs, Duran and Dalbec for say Mannea and Chapmen would create a lot of thoughts. Not that that is a deal the A's would do but it was just an example. The thing is the debate between the value of control would be interesting. Giving up all those years of cost effective players vs short term costs.
Anyways it was just a thought.
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 15, 2021 16:12:11 GMT -5
Maybe during the 2023 season we have a lot to be happy about with Sox minor league pitchers as Mata, Ward, Song and Winklemen could all be making strides.
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 15, 2021 15:56:08 GMT -5
I doubt Scherzer or Verlander go for less then 25 and Scherzer will definitely go for more. Having said that could the ERod signing have a negative effect on other FA pitchers asking price. I think most would consider it on the low side. The more I process this news the more confused I get about the direction the Sox go in this offseason. Just not really making sense to me right at the moment and I wonder what is on their minds. Give me Thor on make-good 2 year deal with a team option for 3 more. I am a Thor fan also but what does that contract look like? He could be a 30m aav pitcher and he wants that upside also. So options for both the team and the player? I am on record as someone who is not afraid of the post TJ surgery guys. So many come back even stronger that it is just not a concern for me. Especially for a guy whose nickname is Thor because of his size and build. The man is a beast and is the body type that holds up thru the 30's like Verlander and Scherzer.
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 15, 2021 15:47:19 GMT -5
No chance this ownership will spend 25 aav million on a pitcher anymore. None. Scherzer is staying out west. I disagree. How many teams win the World Series without having a true ace? I'm sure it happens but great pitching wins in October and that is the Sox aim. Who knows maybe that is why they let ERod go, they have their eyes set on a bigger prize. Either way I really hope your opinion isn't the case moving forward. I just don't think that meshes well with the strategy of being a WS contender every season. Unless they start trading the Yorkes, Mayers and Casas's from the farm system to land a top 10 pitching prospect or 2 how else are they going to get an ace.
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 15, 2021 15:27:56 GMT -5
I doubt Scherzer or Verlander go for less then 25 and Scherzer will definitely go for more.
Having said that could the ERod signing have a negative effect on other FA pitchers asking price. I think most would consider it on the low side.
The more I process this news the more confused I get about the direction the Sox go in this offseason. Just not really making sense to me right at the moment and I wonder what is on their minds.
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 15, 2021 15:21:48 GMT -5
In regards to Rodon In my opinion he will be very good like he was this year but he needs restrictions on innings pitched. Keep his innings down and he will be lights out. Maybe with no QO he is the target. With ERod on the Sox it wouldn't make as much sense with adding another lefty to the rotation.
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 15, 2021 11:33:28 GMT -5
Maybe another way of looking at this is the Sox have more confidence in Houck and Whitlock taking the next step and being solid rotation pieces. If this was one of many other teams with lower expectations and budgets those 2 would already be penciled into the rotations right. I for one have been pushing for them to stay in the pens, maybe that isn't what the Sox have in mind. They are both 26 next season and have already proven they can get major league hitters out so maybe Chaim and crew see them as ready to be main stays in the rotation.
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 15, 2021 10:22:12 GMT -5
Well, this sucks. Setting the money aside, the Sox are now a starter down. I guess if you factor Whitlock as a starter, they are even? But Sale, Eovaldi, Pivetta, Houck, Whitlock is a high risk/high reward staff. I’d love to find out this money is getting directed at Scherzer or Verlander. This makes sense. But if they don't go out and sign someone higher in the FA pecking order I'm going to be really disappointed. The rotation needs at least 1 more impact arm. I am still a Thor fan. TJ surgery doesn't scare me in the least and he is one guy who could really turn into an ace for the next 5 years.
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 15, 2021 10:16:08 GMT -5
I don't like it at all and will not be surprised if it is a deal we all look back on with remorse as he easily out performs the cost. It seems like a very reasonable contract that I would have considered a hometown discount, wrong again.
It seems to me that the Sox must just see something they don't like and decided not to go in that direction. Maybe it is his history of allowing hitters to know what is coming. It has been a problem for him thru the years so maybe they didn't feel it could be coached out of his game.
Not a good start to the offseason as far as I'm concerned.
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 15, 2021 9:29:07 GMT -5
Couple random thoughts. Josh McDaniels is still a really good coach. They killed them with reverses, screens and draws that took advantage of the aggressiveness of their defensive line, which in turn slowed down the pass rush. The secondary continues to excel despite the loss of Gilmore and Jones. They had at least two or three interception chances that they didn't convert and blanketed a pretty good skill position team all day. Everyone was predictably excited for Meyers' first touchdown, but it was notable how excited the team was when Harry hauled in that deep throw from Hoyer midway through the fourth. The entire WR room came over to congratulate him. Bourne also specifically called out Harry's blocking on the reverses he had in his post-game interview. Know it's easy to be a good teammate when you're blowing the other team out, but the good vibes despite Harry's trade demand earlier this room is a positive indicator for the kind of locker room culture that they have. Harry made some great blocks in the game also, once totally blowing up Myles Garrett!!
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 15, 2021 9:17:12 GMT -5
To expand on my Mayfield point… the NFL is in a weird spot with QB salaries. You have all these guys who aren’t that good making massive salaries. Mayfield is about to be added to the Cousins, Carr, Jimmy G and Goffs of the world. It’s hard enough to build a team around a guy like Wilson, who’s actually good making big money. The NFL has a problem - it will be interesting to see how it shakes out. Totally 100% agree. What do the Jets do with their QB situation now? 15 to 20% of a teams budget when their are 52 other players to fit in that budget isn't going to work unless you have a truly great QB. And even that isn't a great position to be in. As great as Mahomes is his contract is going to make life really hard on the Chiefs at some point, they can get out from under it in 2025 but 45m is just too much IMO.
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 15, 2021 9:07:13 GMT -5
It’s always impressive watching how quickly the Pats coaching staff makes adjustments in-game. It’s equally impressive that they can’t stop an opening drive but it’s so normal now that if doesn’t scare me and everything scares me. A friend I was watching the game with and I were discussing the same thing after Cleveland drove and scored on that first drive. It happens to start many games and then they make adjustments. It is frustrating but we both knew it didn't mean much and the Pats would tighten things up. And to jump on jmei's point. Winning is fun and that brings teams together. Starting out losing but continuing to work hard and having it payoff by winning games on a team coached by BB and led by the history of the Pats over the past 20 yrs is awesome. The way they celebrated Myers TD and the way they have stuck together really bodes well for them riding this wave to who knows where. It has taken time but the Oline has come around so they can run the ball and keep Mac clean in the pocket. That along with some great D and coaching is what we expected all along and it is coming to fruition. Watch out Buffalo the Pats are back. Once again how great is it the Pats lucked into their QB of the future at #15 without having to give up any extra picks and only going 1 season without a franchise QB. The rest of the NFL is just shaking their collective heads and saying bad words under their breathe. And BB is doing one of his most masterful jobs of GM/coaching among a lot of great years of doing it. Funny but after TB made it look like it was more him than BB last year, with the people who like to debate that, BB is now making a bit of a statement himself. Atlanta on a short week should be another relative blow out. The Pats are rolling and they are not, I think that hurts a teams chances of getting things turned around in a short week. And Atlanta is just not very good. Time to make some money.
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