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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 7, 2021 13:35:07 GMT -5
Wynn with a major penalty, followed by Karras with a hold, followed by Jakobi with a bobble. All on the first drive :-) Get the mistakes out of the way and keep going. Winning the field position game right now, feels like the old days.
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 7, 2021 11:49:12 GMT -5
So the Yankees, based on spotrac numbers, are 16.6 million over the cap at 226m and are talking about having a big offseason in the FA market. The Sox are at 176m. So why are so many people here seemingly uninterested in spending in free agency to make the team a lot better on paper anyways. I know they have extensions to work out for Xander and Raffy but you know what they don't have? Bad contracts that go years into the future. And they do have to worry about extending Judge, Severino and maybe others.
After resetting the tax cap why wouldn't the Sox consider a budget of 225m+, especially given the contracts coming off the books after next year.
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 7, 2021 10:56:27 GMT -5
If they're negotiating, what's the rush? Making the offer right at the deadline or before it doesn't matter at all. I mean, it's not a rush per se, but we saw the Braves say with Freeman (obviously a different caliber player) that they're extending him the QO as they negotiate further Some things really just don't need to be stated as they are accepted as fact or obviously going to happen. Freeman and ERod are at different levels but the decisions are still no brainers. Is their an actual advantage to putting things on the record, not sure but this does seem to be Chaims method to take all the time available.
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 7, 2021 9:52:45 GMT -5
They picked up Jarren Duran? Sounds like one part of the Bloom way. Buy cheap. Set up options and competition for the squad. Little downside if it does not work, there is always Worcester or being cut loose. We can expect more of this. Yup, just like last offseason, throw a bunch of stuff at the wall and see what sticks. Questions though, like what does this say about their thoughts on Duran, nothing? The Sox don't try to steal bases, will that change?
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 7, 2021 7:16:00 GMT -5
I don't get thinking you're selling high on Dalbec. Renfroe was non tendered no? I just don't see how you get anything great and who's his replacement? I'm not saying I want to trade these guys, yet my top three potential sell high guys are Hernandez, Eovaldi and Whitlock. Hernandez and Eovaldi just had by far their best seasons every and Whitlock in his first years was a crazy elite reliever. I'd say there's a good chance all three aren't as good next year. The idea of sell high is also based on the expected return you would get. Of the three you list only Hernandez to me appears to be worth the you could could get more in return than what you can expect if you kept them. Whitlock is the kind of guy you'd love to acquire however other teams wouldn't want to give up his perceived value includes 5 years of control and would use his lack of a track record against you AND we still need starting pitching as well. If I'm a GM I look at where our roster is deepest and/or redundancy in roles. First base is about to become very deep but until Cassas debut there is no necessary rush to make a move, but that is a spot. Now that doesn't mean Dalbec is necc. traded either. Should both JD and Schwarber leave, maybe Dalbec is your DH backing up first and third base. Further confusing the issue is how much longer is the left side of the infield going to have Devers at thirdbase and Xavier at shortstop? Hell maybe this is the year Devers goes to first and Xander goes to third and we sign a SS, Correa? Maybe we sign Suzuki from Japan, making one of Renfroe (preferably), Durran or Verdugo available. This is going to be a really interesting year and a half in terms of moves the team makes and positional player changes. We do have several earnest trade chips. This I agree with. The whole selling high thing is interesting to me in that it really should just be a byproduct of trading. I don't think as a GM you should be using it as the basis for trades, that would mean you are gambling that you know better than some other GM. Why you make trades is based on needs, roster building, salary considerations etc etc, but to just guess and project selling high shouldn't be the basis for a trade. And as you discuss about being deep at positions both in the system and on the major league roster is a big factor. With Casas coming soon Dalbec becomes a possible trade chip. I feel the same about Yorke and eventually MMayer. Duran I absolutely see as a trade chip and Downs also. For Duran to stay in Boston he will need to adjust and improve a lot quickly or I don't see him getting the playing time to improve. If both his D and AB's don't make major strides at the major league level then his value goes down right. Maybe they need to keep him at AAA where he can dominate and keep his value high. I read on here about platooning him and I have to wonder if that is a good idea considering he needs reps to develop. This is going to be a very interesting couple years as you say.
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 7, 2021 6:53:38 GMT -5
At some point this season I expect the C's execs will realize that Schroeder is the guy to keep as part of the core moving forward and Marcus is not. We have all been in and out of his corner for the most part over his career, taking the good with the bad. The thing is we all have been waiting and hoping to watch his game mature, for him to fit that role and eliminate some of the bad. And he just hasn't done it, he has improved but not nearly enough for a guy to be the heart and soul of the team. He wins some games with his intensity and intangibles and then he losses some games with his bad shot selection, poor decision making and plain bone headed plays. This is who he is and it seems evident be isn't going to outgrow it. Marcus just isn't all that smart.
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 6, 2021 18:57:29 GMT -5
Suzuki looks like he could be a real impact player. I wonder what that contract will look like, 20m aav. He could get expensive. That's a good point. Who knows what that contract might end up being. 20 mil aav is pretty dang dang steep for a guy with 0 MLB ABs but his track record in Japan may push it to that. If I was the sox I'd probably bow out around the 15 area, there's no guarantee the success in Japan translates to the majors. The Sox know all too well about big money contracts for guys like that with Rusney Castillo. But I still remember how good Ichiro was and wonder what if this guy could be half the player.
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 6, 2021 16:06:22 GMT -5
I’m all in for signing Seiya Suzuki. 6 straight seasons with an OPS over .930 and 3 over 1.000? A very patient hitter who walked more than he struck out this year? He’s only 27 yo and he would only cost you money? Yes please! I’m a firm believer that a championship caliber Sox team needs above average defense in Fenway’s RF and the dude has won multiple GG awards in the NBP and ranks 7th in UZR this year with a 70 arm to boot. Re-sign E-Rod, get me Seiya and let’s roll! Suzuki looks like he could be a real impact player. I wonder what that contract will look like, 20m aav. He could get expensive.
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 6, 2021 14:13:25 GMT -5
I have read that OBJ is very well liked in the locker room and has had a good relationship with Baker and all the guys. They actually do get together off the field. OBJ is known for getting to know all the players and at times buying the whole team special sneakers. He was at Mayfields wedding and I guess they play computer games against each other. It went on to say and point out how they never clicked on the field and OBJ would not always run the route Baker thought he would run so it made for indecision on timing throws.
This is just an on the field problem really and yes I know OBJ has had a checkered past. But if he doesn't run the right routes there in Cleveland I don't think he would be a great fit in NE with a more difficult offense. It would be nice for Mac to have a true stud WR that could help him make big plays`though. Imagine if Brady had Moss for 8 years or so the numbers they would have put up. Moss would have more TD receptions than Jerry Rice and Brady's numbers would balloon by 10%.
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 6, 2021 10:35:54 GMT -5
For those too young to remember Dexter Manley graduated high school and stayed eligible to play football at Oklahoma St for 4 years and could't read. That was around 1980.
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 5, 2021 6:13:30 GMT -5
Nothing about this ownership group or front office strikes me as a “three year window” kind of mindset. Not even when it comes to the cap? I agree with the LT outlook but if they don't go over the cap at times, based on the current CBA, then I will be very disappointed. And I expect that they will so in that context the "three year window" could apply. My hope is that the CBA changes enough to end the 3 year window strategy employed by the big market teams. Allow for higher caps and also reduce the penalties a little bit. The last CBA went pretty far in controlling wages, time for that to be loosened up.
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 5, 2021 6:04:58 GMT -5
If Chaim is all about getting the most value out of a roster, which he has stated, then I would have to imagine that he sees Renfroe as a keeper next year. He will most likely be a 13m+ value that costs what around 7.5m. It does all depend on who they could get in a prospect but at 29 and the question marks surrounding him I wouldn't expect the Sox would get a premium player. As it has been debated here plenty I am one who thinks he could be very good again next yr, maybe even better. I don't see how the Sox outfield improves really. Duran should see more at bats against RHP this year and Renfroe should see less time against RHP. Verdugo slides to RF when Duran plays. The problem with that is that Duran was a reverse splits guy last year. Hit LHP better last year. Maybe that was a fluke thing and SSS. Outfield should be okay. Good enough to pass through for now. Clearly a stop gap thing. Definitely a problem down the road. Kiké and Renfroe are more stop gaps. Verdugo could be a mainstay but has back issues so who knows? I hope the Sox can find a role for Duran next year but currently I think he needs constant playing time and ABs. If he is going well enough for the Sox to find that role then great but he didn't look close this season defensively or at the plate. He seems like the perfect fit for a team that can give him the time to develop with an every day role. That is hard in Boston as we found out with Dalbec this year and IMO Dalbec was further ahead given his Sept. 2020.
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 5, 2021 5:55:54 GMT -5
I imagine with regard to starting pitching, the Sox will shape it like last offseason with no long term deals, and some 1 year plus an option contract for some veterans like they did with Richards and Perez. With that in mind does anyone have interest in Rich Hill, and if so, what does his contract look like. I imagine he can be had with a one plus and option contract. Buddy ran into him last week and he is definitely interested in playing here. Had an interesting story about his arm, one that makes him a high risk it seems. About 3-4 years ago he needed TJ surgery, but chose against it, fearing that at his age, it would essentially end his career. The secondary option was the Tanaka route which I believe is injections and constant rehab and manipulation. He didnt go that route either. Apparently he has some brace on his elbow, and this part of the story got confusing, as to whether it was surgical or not, but it involves the permanent placement of some plastic item in his elbow that was fairly revolutionary. He said it has been great for the last few years, but the doctors have told him they have no idea what the life span of good results is on this thing, other than that when it blows, you will know, and you are done. I have brought Hill up myself as a guy who who would give the Sox a fantastic 125 innings for less than 3m. I am firmly in the corner of having multiple guys who can go thru the line up once, like Whitlock and Houck.
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 5, 2021 5:23:31 GMT -5
If Chaim is all about getting the most value out of a roster, which he has stated, then I would have to imagine that he sees Renfroe as a keeper next year. He will most likely be a 13m+ value that costs what around 7.5m. It does all depend on who they could get in a prospect but at 29 and the question marks surrounding him I wouldn't expect the Sox would get a premium player. As it has been debated here plenty I am one who thinks he could be very good again next yr, maybe even better. The Sox should be looking at a 3-year window of paying luxury tax without any other penalties (as always, we don't know what the new CBA will bring, so we can only approximate based on the status quo) and I, for one, will be disappointed if Chaim makes decisions within that window based on saving a few mil of ownership's money here and there.
In other words, I want him to put the most WAR out on the field as possible during this window, not the most WAR/$. For longer-term decisions, yes, make sure you can get under the threshold in the fourth year and reset and still field a competitive team (which would include acquiring prospects who could be ready then). But for now, it's winning time.
As for the value of Renfroe vs. Marte, SM had 3.6 more fWAR than HR in 2021 (when both had good years), which is good for about $31m, so I don't feel like I'm overpaying by adding that extra WAR by paying SM $20m/year more than HR -- and that's without considering the value of whatever prospect HR would command. (Also, HR's salary would likely go up again in 2023, whereas you're locking SM in at a known AAV.) The bottom line, for now, is adding that extra WAR.
Obviously there are a lot of different ways to go at a lot of positions. This is just one of the ways that I like best.
I agree with your opinion on going over and that 3 year window. I just prefer that the money is spent on pitching and maybe improving the infield D. The Sox had Renfroe batting 6 or 7 most of the season and he put up 89 runs, 31 Hrs with 96 rbi out of that spot. To me that is a lot of offensive punch that far down in the lineup, certainly enough for a team to contend. I just think that a rotation of Sale, Thor, Eovaldi, ERod and Pivetta would take the Sox further when it comes to playoff baseball.
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 4, 2021 5:35:08 GMT -5
I'd sell high on Renfroe for a pitching prospect or two and move Kiké to RF and put Marte in CF. Maybe flip-flop them on the road, depending on the park (maybe Kiké in LF in the Bronx).
Renfroe's stock is never going to be higher and Marte has been a consistent 3.5 to 5 WAR player his entire career. Yes, he's entering his age-33 season but I'd risk a shorter, higher-AAV contract on him.
EDIT: I'll estimate that Marte will be worth 8-12 WAR over the next three years. What's that? $70m - $100m? Considering he was worth 5.4 fWAR this year, I'd say that's pretty conservative. I'd see if he'd take 3 yrs/$85m. Given his age, you have to wonder how many teams are going to offer a 5 or 6 year deal, so maybe that gets it done.
Ignoring the prospect that would come back, taking your estimate for Marte's WAR, and assuming Renfroe's next two seasons are comparable to this one, this boils down to paying an extra ~$20 million per year for an extra ~1 WAR per year in RF. If you really think Renfroe is going to crumble next year, and you're able to get a very promising pitcher back, then sure, go for it. I just don't see Renfroe bringing back anyone good enough to make this worth it. I'd guess it's most cost effective to keep Renfroe and invest in pitching directly. If Chaim is all about getting the most value out of a roster, which he has stated, then I would have to imagine that he sees Renfroe as a keeper next year. He will most likely be a 13m+ value that costs what around 7.5m. It does all depend on who they could get in a prospect but at 29 and the question marks surrounding him I wouldn't expect the Sox would get a premium player. As it has been debated here plenty I am one who thinks he could be very good again next yr, maybe even better.
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 4, 2021 5:12:58 GMT -5
It's like as if some players actually think there's life outside of baseball. Not sure if you are being sarcastic or not but interesting comment. Sure there is life outside of baseball but man if I had that talent and could still play I would milk it for all its worth. Who knows what is going on in his mind and his life but I think most do right and they all say they miss the clubhouse after it is over. And then there is the money left on the table, although with career earnings of 137m I am sure he is all set. Just seems very unlikely at 34 with the season he just had. Maybe it is just one of those end of season fatigue driven decisions that he reconsiders come Spring.
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 3, 2021 18:15:12 GMT -5
That was a good World Series glad the Braves won. I still think the Braves would have beaten us but still would have been fun to watch. Did you think they would have beaten the MFYs and the Rays?
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 3, 2021 7:34:56 GMT -5
Very very happy to see the cheating Stros lose the WS!!
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 3, 2021 7:30:15 GMT -5
Treatment of animals in countries like the Philippines is generally far, far more humane than it is in the US. I've been present for halal killings of sheep, which are also much more humane than what we do. It's not that people in other countries even particularly care, I think; it's just that we go so far out of our way to inflict suffering on domestic animals. Let's be honest here, American's view of their own morality is far different than the view of the rest of the world. At least in terms of impact, America is pretty much the most morally bankrupt country in the world and has that reputation to match. I have traveled a bit and would have to say that depends on the morals we are talking about. Not to overly defend America as there is no defense but many many countries are lacking in certain moral areas much worse than in America.
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 3, 2021 6:30:32 GMT -5
JJ Taylor disapproves of this post... I love Taylor, yet they clearly don't trust him. So we get Bolden. I love Taylor also and think he could be very good for a while. But he needs to pick up the blitz and hold on to the ball. He can get there.
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 3, 2021 6:25:40 GMT -5
Has anyone heard anything about MLB or the Players Union putting trading draft picks on the table for the CBA? If MLB wants to draw any of the attention to its draft that the NFL or NBA currently possess this seems like the simplest - and least painful - way to do it. They could allow trading picks in the first 10 rounds with the requisite money. Especially now with the slotting, not sure what the hang-up would be. There is talk they might allow trading of picks for other picks. Not certain. I don't think I agree this would create much more excitement about the draft though. The issues with the MLB draft as opposed to the NBA and NFL are (1) less familiarity with the players (college basketball/football much more popular), and (2) the drafted players are, for the most part, contributing right away or close to it, as opposed to 2, 3, 4, 5 years down the road. The better analogy to the MLB draft is college recruiting, I think. I agree that there is basically nothing baseball can do to put the draft any where near those sports in regards to interest. For the reasons Chris states it is just a different animal. The players coming into those leagues have an immediate impact and have had exposure to fans for years. The people who have an interest in college and prep baseball players is a very small demographic, basically people like us here at SP. And we aren't going to move the needle on ratings for the draft or even the media that produces all the info on available players. Baseball has a hard enough time maintaining the base they have always had let alone expanding the true junkies like us. Sure their is a market but it is small and not growing enough to think it could ever reach those stratospheres. If it wasn't for fantasy baseball MLB would have seen much greater losses in interest thru the years. And when it comes to this CBA I think they all realize a prolonged standoff would be a very bad thing, at least I hope they do. Then again the lust for greed always amazes me and the owners seem to live in their own little world of never ending bounty.
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 3, 2021 5:36:52 GMT -5
It was discussed earlier in the thread, but there's a line of thinking that JDM will both opt out and accept the QO. That way he would effectively keep the same salary (less $975k) and enter next year's free agency with no QO attached. That could be a bad gamble on JDM's part. I don't see the Quallifying Offer lasting too much longer, if at all. It keeps hindering player's values on the free agent market. The non super elite players are having a hard enough time getting deals in their 30's, nevermind with the QO attached. I see the QO disappearing in a month. I see it being axed also and it should be as you said it has had too much of a negative effect on the players. But I do think they should compensate the team losing the player the way they do in the NFL via compensation picks, the picks just shouldn't come from the signing team. On a different note I get the universal DH being a good thing for JD but I wonder how many teams in the NL would be in a position to pay big bucks for a DH only type guy. Their are a few but not many and who knows how they feel about spending over 15 million on that position. Nelson Cruz comes to mind as a guy who is close to JD in that he is DH only and has a great bat, at around the same age and level of productivity he did get a 4/14 in 2015. So maybe their is a 4/16 out there for him. I would be concerned about the last 5 months of last season being subpar for him but in truth he doesn't seem like the type of guy who would fall off a cliff, who knows. I hope the Sox have a good idea. The question for me has always been why hasn't he learned how to play 1st, too stiff, not athletic enough, can't field a ground ball, all of the above??
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 2, 2021 19:17:03 GMT -5
Bruins have tremendous leadership and character, proud of how they responded to the Beach situation. Toews should take notes from Bergeron Yes on Bergeron, one of the best!! But who could have guessed that one of the best rats of all time has become that guy too. I mean he was licking guys faces 5 years ago.
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 2, 2021 19:07:39 GMT -5
At what point do we acknowledge that Brad Stevens wasn't the problem last year? If they're still playing like this going into the All-star break. My own feeling is that Ime is pressing way too hard, and it's rubbing off on the team and they are pressing in response. He needs to ease off on the rotation tightness, develop guys, and make Celtics basketball fun again. Or else it's going to turn into a looooong season. I really can't believe he's playing Timelord and Horford together. We have so many good or at least interesting possible lineups Transition/Defense: Schroder/Smart/one Jay/Grant/Timelord 5 out Tatum ballhandler: Tatum-Nesmith-Brown/Pritchard-Romeo/Grant-Horford Starters: anything not double big with the Jays Energy chaos small lineup: Schroder-Pritchard-Nesmith-Grant-Timelord I think you could very well be right. They are playing with pressure on them that is internal. Since they wanted and pushed this hire they are all invested and they are all feeling it. Some times I do see what looks like they are thinking to much, they certainly aren't having much fun. Unless of course you are Tatum after the Wiz loss. I like some of those lineups.
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 2, 2021 18:55:41 GMT -5
I would much rather trade Duran than Casas at this point. Take it with a "Brain of Salt" but the Trade Simulator has Duran for Manaea & Kemp as an acceptable trade. Oh my god I would make that trade so fast. I kind of have a hunch that Duran is not as highly regarded as a prospect by front offices as he is in the top 100 lists (which still have him sort of mysteriously high, in my opinion), but if there is a front office that would give up that much for him I would definitely do it. (Yes, I pooh-poohed Kemp in another comment, but if you can get him and Manaea for Duran I'd love it.)
On trading Casas for pitching... not so much. I think you have to start from the observation that the Blue Jays gave up two prospects almost as good as Casas for 1.5 years' worth of Berrios, and then think about how little Casas alone would likely fetch.
I would do that trade and I agree on Durans value. I think the thing about Duran is that his upside is pretty high if he gets the ABs and he could develop into a better than average player. He will make enough great plays from his athleticism that the cons will be overlooked in most markets. He reminds me of a Josh Reddick, he had some good years but he wasn't going to get that chance in Boston.
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