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Post by Deleted on Sept 5, 2013 12:34:17 GMT -5
Brian McCann is also a lefty, while Dioner Navarro (having an out-of-nowhere great season) is a switch-hitter (although he's been much better versus lefties over his career). McCann maybe LHH catcher but he is not a left handed catcher who would be signed to compliment Ross or Lavarnway as the criteria was laid out by Okin. Better luck next time.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Sept 5, 2013 12:49:42 GMT -5
Spending the money just for the sake of it for what could end up as a replacement level catcher in another year and isn't even a good defensive catcher now isn't a sound idea here. It's why see nothing wrong with going to ST, bringing in various other veterans who are always floating around along with both Ross and the trio of Butler, Vazquez and Lavarnway. Spend that money on a RH bat that is needed more than a catcher who has trouble doing that. Lots wrong with this. It's not "Spending the money just for the sake of it"; it's spending so as to have a catcher whose combined O and D is much better than that of the Filene's Basement alternatives. As as Jmei said, Salty is unlikely to "end up as a replacement level catcher." And finally, given the ample amount of money available below the cap, there is no connection between how much we spend on catcher and our ability to pick up a RH bat. We could even blow past the cap for a year with only modest penalties. I do still remember the pain of not being able to sign Kuroda, and of having to trade our SS so as to be able to sign even Cody Ross. But those days are gone. There is more to it than that. It goes back to having a catcher that can play defense and throw, which is something the team hasn't had since right after 'Tek signed his 1st 4Y deal and quickly slowed down on his ability to throw runners out. Not his fault of course, but age was catching up. Salty just can't throw. Maybe it's a block of some sort creeping in again that is bothering him that forces him to bounce throws, make them wide, never near the mark, but the team needs more than a catcher who hits a few XBH and fails to put the ball into play 35% of his PA. Catching is a defensive 1st position. Take care of that 1st. Easier to get offense (and cheaper) out of 1st base, corner OF and several other places around the diamond. A team with 8 strong positions can carry 1 defensive position and have already made a case as to why it works, but will be more than glad to cite multiple more historical examples if anyone likes.. Late career Manny Sanguillen, Tony Pena..
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Sept 5, 2013 12:52:59 GMT -5
Sometimes you're entirely too detail oriented. ... My greater point (as said in that post and one previous) was that the current state of ML catching is limited to a few elite catchers and a bunch of slightly better than replacement level catchers. Salty falls into the second group while someone like McCann or Mauer is in the first. I don't think losing Salty is a big deal since his value is not very high anyway. I prefer very much to improve the catching position through signing McCann or trading for Mauer. If neither of those happens then I am perfectly fine with Ross/? replacing Salty's likely 2014 2 WAR total. ... Yeah, I guess if you're not too detail-oriented you might think Ross can play full-time for the first time ever and replace Salty's WAR. Or that all catchers who are better than replacement level but below McCann/Mauer are the same.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 5, 2013 12:59:28 GMT -5
To do a real world check on this, only one player in 2013 is even close to doing that as a CF. Carlos Gomez. Last year only one player accomplished that feat, Michael Bourn and the year before no one did.
So what you are really saying is that Jackie Bradley is so good defensively that he's immediately going to walk in and be the best CF in the majors.
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Post by elguapo on Sept 5, 2013 12:59:59 GMT -5
If the Sox don't sign Salty, they really ought to be looking for a LHH catcher to complement either Ross or Lavarnway. FWIW Ross's career numbers show zero split.
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Post by raftsox on Sept 5, 2013 13:28:33 GMT -5
Yeah, I guess if you're not too detail-oriented you might think Ross can play full-time for the first time ever and replace Salty's WAR. Or that all catchers who are better than replacement level but below McCann/Mauer are the same. Was any of that said? Or, is it just what you want to hear because it makes you sound smarter to infer that erverbody else is a stupid. Again, and for the last time, Ross/? may not replace Salty's whopping 2 WAR (2014 projected), but they also might because he's not that good. Look back through the thread, read my post on page 3 or 4 about team catcher WAR and realize that you can get league average catcher value pretty easily since 2/3 of the league has managed to do just that, including the Red Sox.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 5, 2013 13:50:31 GMT -5
ESTJ actually.
In response to your post I think you are WAY underestimating the difference in value between Ross and Salty this year. Ross may not even be a replacement level catcher or even physically capable of playing full time. Salty is a 2.5WAR player according to fangraphs and maybe more depending on how you count his pitch calling/framing ability. It is incorrect to call him "barely above replacement level".
In the case of the two alternatives Mauer if available, can't catch full time and already has major physical problems and is signed for 5 more years at $23M. McCann also has a major injury history and is going to want a long-term deal at $15M per. Both of those seem like very poor risks to me.
It's really not because the crux of your argument is that the Red Sox have to take their chances with what they have in the organization at the position because of payroll concerns. Shouldn't a discussion of the 2014 expected payroll be relevant to that argument?
In any case I don't think the Red Sox are tendering Bailey and giving him $4-$5M when he's coming off of major shoulder surgery. I could be wrong too but I don't think the Red Sox will be in the bidding for Abreau if it gets to $15M per.
What it really boils down to is having two of the four (Ellsbury, Salty, Drew, or Abreu). If it's up to me I am signing Ellsbury and Salty to long-term deals and forgetting about the 1B who may not be eligible, has no MLB experience, and questionable bat speed. I'm not advocating giving Salty something like 5/60, but 3/30 seems reasonable. If you pinch pennies and go with Ross and Lavarnway I think you are talking about a noticeable drop off.
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Post by raftsox on Sept 5, 2013 14:11:53 GMT -5
In response to your post I think you are WAY underestimating the difference in value between Ross and Salty this year. Ross may not even be a replacement level catcher or even physically capable of playing full time. Salty is a 2.5WAR player according to fangraphs and maybe more depending on how you count his pitch calling/framing ability. It is incorrect to call him "barely above replacement level". In the case of the two alternatives Mauer if available, can't catch full time and already has major physical problems and is signed for 5 more years at $23M. McCann also has a major injury history and is going to want a long-term deal at $15M per. Both of those seem like very poor risks to me. What it really boils down to is having two of the four (Ellsbury, Salty, Drew, or Abreu). If it's up to me I am signing Ellsbury and Salty to long-term deals and forgetting about the 1B who may not be eligible, has no MLB experience, and questionable bat speed. I'm not advocating giving Salty something like 5/60, but 3/30 seems reasonable. If you pinch pennies and go with Ross and Lavarnway I think you are talking about a noticeable drop off. I'm not sure why I said Perceptive type. I meant to put Judgemnt type on both. Oh well. I don't have any illusions that Ross could take over the majority of the catching duties, I'm not sure where that statement comes from. What I have been trying to point out is that team catcher WAR over the previous 3 seasons can very clearly be broken into simple tiers. The Red Sox are in the middle of "tier 2, or average" with 2.4 WAR/season. I am of the opinion that Salty will regress some next season and that a Ross/Lavarnway would represent a combined 1.8 WAR or so which equates to about a half win less than Ross/Salty is. Regardless of that, I'm not opposed to resigning Salty. I just don't think it's worth it to pay him more than $8-10M/season. Furthermore; if he wants more then he wouldn't be an irriplaceable loss.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 5, 2013 14:32:03 GMT -5
This is a classic anchoring problem.
Just because 2/3 of the league has been able to do something does not mean that it's easily done or done cheaply. Nor does it mean that the Red Sox can just throw anyone back there and get league average value.
There is no real evidence that a Ross/Lavarnway tag team is capable of putting up a 1.8 WAR never mind that such a projection would obviously carry much more risk.
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Post by taftreign on Sept 10, 2013 22:16:42 GMT -5
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Post by The Town Sports Cards on Sept 11, 2013 8:40:57 GMT -5
I wish the Sox could get a strong look at Lavarnway and Butler to see if one of them could platoon with Ross for a year or so and then see where Vazquez and Swihart are. I feel like locking up Salty for 3-4 yrs means that we need to try to trade some of our C prospects, because otherwise we're losing value having them in the minors or moving them to other positions. I'd like to hope that by 2016 we have a Swihart/Vazquez platoon out there everyday.
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Post by mgoetze on Sept 11, 2013 9:29:21 GMT -5
Lavarnway is a RHH. Ross is a RHH. Does "platoon" suddenly mean something different than what I thought it meant?
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Post by elguapo on Sept 11, 2013 10:25:34 GMT -5
Lavarnway is a RHH. Ross is a RHH. Does "platoon" suddenly mean something different than what I thought it meant? If you have a question about vocuabulary, you might try Dictionary.com. dictionary.reference.com/browse/platoon?s=t
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rjp313jr
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Post by rjp313jr on Sept 11, 2013 14:47:39 GMT -5
Lavarnway is a RHH. Ross is a RHH. Does "platoon" suddenly mean something different than what I thought it meant? The most common "platoons" are right left matchups when it comes to baseball. However, you could refer to splitting the job as a platoon.
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