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2014 MLB Draft discussion
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Post by Guidas on Jun 3, 2014 11:00:59 GMT -5
Does anyone see a top-15 type "sign ability/firm commitment to his college" guy we can possibly snag? Not seeing many of those types mentioned in the blogs or by the draft experts (Law, Callis, Badler).
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Post by bigpupp on Jun 3, 2014 11:13:58 GMT -5
Does anyone see a top-15 type "sign ability/firm commitment to his college" guy we can possibly snag? Not seeing many of those types mentioned in the blogs or by the draft experts (Law, Callis, Badler). JB Bukauskus is mentioned in the Draft Preview. He sent out letters to teams telling them he would be attending college. He is the only one I know of, however.
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Post by wskeleton76 on Jun 3, 2014 12:16:15 GMT -5
He isn't top 15 talent.
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 3, 2014 12:28:05 GMT -5
It's going to be cool when Toronto then KC both pass on Hoffman and we gradually get more and more excited only to see the A's nab him at #25.
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Post by iakovos11 on Jun 3, 2014 12:32:33 GMT -5
I don't he meant top 15 talent overall, but the top 15 or so guys that are considered tough signs
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Post by ibsmith85 on Jun 3, 2014 12:34:18 GMT -5
It's going to be cool when Toronto then KC both pass on Hoffman and we gradually get more and more excited only to see the A's nab him at #25. Sonny Gray v2.0....come on Barnes, make that hurt less.
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Post by bigpupp on Jun 3, 2014 12:38:18 GMT -5
Right. From what I understand there isn't a Phil Bickford type player this year. I could be wrong, but the highest ranked "won't sign" guy is Bukauskus.
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Post by amfox1 on Jun 3, 2014 12:46:28 GMT -5
In advance of my final mock draft tomorrow, here are my current thoughts on ceilings and floors of certain players (ordered by ceiling):
HS pitchers (10) Brady Aiken LHP (UCLA) (ceiling 1, floor 5) Tyler Kolek RHP (Texas Christian) (ceiling 2, floor 5) Touki Toussaint RHP (Vanderbilt) (ceiling 9, floor 14) Grant Holmes RHP (Florida) (ceiling 12, floor 19) Kodi Medeiros LHP (Pepperdine) (ceiling 12, floor 28) Michael Kopech, RHP (Arizona) (ceiling 12, floor 35+) Foster Griffin, RHP (Mississippi) (ceiling 17, floor 35+) Sean Reid-Foley RHP (Florida State) (ceiling 19, floor 35+) Luis Ortiz RHP (Fresno State) (ceiling 19, floor 35+) Spencer Adams, RHP (Georgia) (ceiling 19, floor 35+)
College pitchers (9) Carlos Rodon LHP, North Carolina State (ceiling 1, floor 4) Aaron Nola RHP, Louisiana State (ceiling 3, floor 7) Sean Newcomb LHP, Hartford (ceiling 5, floor 12) Kyle Freeland LHP, Evansville (ceiling 6, floor 14) Jeff Hoffman RHP, East Carolina (ceiling 7, floor 17) Tyler Beede RHP, Vanderbilt (ceiling 10, floor 17) Nick Howard, RHP, Virginia (ceiling 11, floor 35+) Brandon Finnegan LHP, Texas Christian (ceiling 12, floor 35+) Erick Fedde RHP, UNLV (ceiling 17, floor 28)
HS hitters (11) Alex Jackson C/OF (Oregon) (ceiling 1, floor 6) Nick Gordon SS/RHP (Florida State) (ceiling 4, floor 7) Max Pentecost C, Kennesaw State (ceiling 4, floor 16) Monte Harrison, OF (Nebraska) (ceiling 5, floor 30) Derek Hill, OF (Oregon) (ceiling 13, floor 22) Jacob Gatewood SS/3B (Southern California) (ceiling 17, floor 35+) Forrest Wall, 2B (North Carolina) (ceiling 17, floor 35+) Michael Gettys OF (Georgia) (ceiling 20, floor 35+) Ti'Quan Forbes, SS/2B (Mississippi) (ceiling 20, floor 35+) Marcus Wilson, OF (Arizona State) (ceiling 20, floor 35+) Michael Chavis 2B/3B (Clemson) (ceiling 23, floor 35+)
College hitters (9) Michael Conforto OF, Oregon State (ceiling 4, floor 18) Trea Turner SS, North Carolina State (ceiling 6, floor 10) Bradley Zimmer OF, San Francisco (ceiling 8, floor 18) Kyle Schwarber C/1B, Indiana (ceiling 15, floor 21) Casey Gillaspie, 1B, Wichita State (ceiling 16, floor 35+) A.J. Reed, 1B, Kentucky (ceiling 18, floor 35+) Derek Fisher OF, Virginia (ceiling 21, floor 35+) Alex Blandino 2B/3B, Stanford (ceiling 21, floor 35+) Mike Papi, OF, Virginia (ceiling 21, floor 35+)
Others in play for the first round include Sheffield, DeCarr, Burdi, Weaver, Gatto, Marshall and Vellot.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Jun 3, 2014 12:55:48 GMT -5
As bigpupp says there is no one that fits what Guidas is asking for as of this moment.
There are guys that that are signability question marks like Bukauskas, Jack Flaherthy, Justus Sheffield but they arent't "top15" talents which plays into why they are signability question marks.
Complete especulation on my part but the guys I would foresee with signability question marks in the 1st round are Hoffman if he is still loloking for a top bonus, Fedde same boat, Beede if he falls past the top 15 or so and Monte Harrison due to his Football commitment.
As I said it's complete especulation on my part as I haven't seen anything on wether these guys are hard signs or not.
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Post by amfox1 on Jun 3, 2014 13:06:21 GMT -5
Complete especulation on my part but the guys I would foresee with signability question marks in the 1st round are Hoffman if he is still loloking for a top bonus, Fedde same boat, Beede if he falls past the top 15 or so and Monte Harrison due to his Football commitment. My understanding is that Harrison will not be an issue, if picked in the first round. Given that neither Hoffman nor Fedde will be able to pitch college ball next season (healthy, at least), neither of them should be issues either, unless a team tries to jam them well below slot (and both are candidates for below-slot deals in the top 15). Beede may be a question mark, depending on where he is picked, but I expect him to be picked in the teens and sign. The likelihood is that we won't know who is a signability issue until they drop in the draft (since the teams will know).
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Jun 3, 2014 13:34:00 GMT -5
In advance of my final mock draft tomorrow, here are my current thoughts on ceilings and floors of certain players (ordered by ceiling): HS pitchers (10)Brady Aiken LHP (UCLA) (ceiling 1, floor 5) Tyler Kolek RHP (Texas Christian) (ceiling 2, floor 5) Touki Toussaint RHP (Vanderbilt) (ceiling 9, floor 14) Grant Holmes RHP (Florida) (ceiling 12, floor 19) Kodi Medeiros LHP (Pepperdine) (ceiling 12, floor 28) Michael Kopech, RHP (Arizona) (ceiling 12, floor 35+) Foster Griffin, RHP (Mississippi) (ceiling 17, floor 35+) Sean Reid-Foley RHP (Florida State) (ceiling 19, floor 35+) Luis Ortiz RHP (Fresno State) (ceiling 19, floor 35+) Spencer Adams, RHP (Georgia) (ceiling 19, floor 35+) College pitchers (9)
Carlos Rodon LHP, North Carolina State (ceiling 1, floor 4) Aaron Nola RHP, Louisiana State (ceiling 3, floor 7) Sean Newcomb LHP, Hartford (ceiling 5, floor 12) Kyle Freeland LHP, Evansville (ceiling 6, floor 14) Jeff Hoffman RHP, East Carolina (ceiling 7, floor 17) Tyler Beede RHP, Vanderbilt (ceiling 10, floor 17) Nick Howard, RHP, Virginia (ceiling 11, floor 35+) Brandon Finnegan LHP, Texas Christian (ceiling 12, floor 35+) Erick Fedde RHP, UNLV (ceiling 17, floor 28) HS hitters (11)Alex Jackson C/OF (Oregon) (ceiling 1, floor 6) Nick Gordon SS/RHP (Florida State) (ceiling 4, floor 7) Max Pentecost C, Kennesaw State (ceiling 4, floor 16) Monte Harrison, OF (Nebraska) (ceiling 5, floor 30) Derek Hill, OF (Oregon) (ceiling 13, floor 22) Jacob Gatewood SS/3B (Southern California) (ceiling 17, floor 35+) Forrest Wall, 2B (North Carolina) (ceiling 17, floor 35+) Michael Gettys OF (Georgia) (ceiling 20, floor 35+) Ti'Quan Forbes, SS/2B (Mississippi) (ceiling 20, floor 35+) Marcus Wilson, OF (Arizona State) (ceiling 20, floor 35+) Michael Chavis 2B/3B (Clemson) (ceiling 23, floor 35+) College hitters (9)Michael Conforto OF, Oregon State (ceiling 4, floor 18) Trea Turner SS, North Carolina State (ceiling 6, floor 10) Bradley Zimmer OF, San Francisco (ceiling 8, floor 18) Kyle Schwarber C/1B, Indiana (ceiling 15, floor 21) Casey Gillaspie, 1B, Wichita State (ceiling 16, floor 35+) A.J. Reed, 1B, Kentucky (ceiling 18, floor 35+) Derek Fisher OF, Virginia (ceiling 21, floor 35+) Alex Blandino 2B/3B, Stanford (ceiling 21, floor 35+) Mike Papi, OF, Virginia (ceiling 21, floor 35+) Others in play for the first round include Sheffield, DeCarr, Burdi, Weaver, Gatto, Marshall and Vellot. Fascinating, but confusing. I probably missed it, but I can't recall seeing ceiling and floor gradings like these. Can you provide a reference link that explains them? Thanks.
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Post by amfox1 on Jun 3, 2014 13:39:54 GMT -5
The floor and ceiling ratings are mine, based on where (it appears) these players will fall in the draft. The numbers represent draft picks. For example, Kyle Freeland is most likely to be drafted between 7 (PHI) and 14 (SF), based on current projections.
I have a draft mock, with possibilities for each of the first 34 picks.
The mock will be released tomorrow.
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Post by ibsmith85 on Jun 3, 2014 13:43:33 GMT -5
I think DanR was referring the the ceiling/floor #'s, which are ranks in relation to the entire draft pool, not grades, which is what I think Dan was seeing them as, but I could be wrong.
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Post by amfox1 on Jun 3, 2014 13:53:11 GMT -5
I think DanR was referring the the ceiling/floor #'s, which are ranks in relation to the entire draft pool, not grades, which is what I think Dan was seeing them as, but I could be wrong. They are spots in the first round. Players are likely to be picked between the floor and the ceiling. For instance, none of the top three pitchers (Aiken, Rodon, Kolek) will get past the 5th pick (MIN). None of the top six players (add Gordon, Nola, Jackson) will get past the 7th pick (PHI). This should give you a sense of how teams are stacking their draft boards.
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Post by mjammz on Jun 3, 2014 14:45:29 GMT -5
Keith Law's new mock is out..
26. Alex Blandino SCHOOL: Stanford HT: 6-0 WT: 190 POS: 3B Analysis: I've heard they would like a college bat with this pick, with Blandino or A.J. Reed possibilities, but I don't think they would be thrilled in such a scenario. They are in heavy on Louisiana prep catcher Chase Vallot for pick No. 33.
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Post by amfox1 on Jun 3, 2014 14:56:03 GMT -5
FWIW, the consensus seems to be bat at #26, arm at #33, unless someone (including Fedde/Hoffman) unexpectedly falls to #26 (the idea being that there are less interesting bats and more interesting arms likely to fall to #33). I have also heard Vallot as one of many names in the conversation; I note that he likely ends up at 1B or as a corner OF.
BTW, I am not on the Blandino bandwagon.
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Post by bsout2 on Jun 3, 2014 15:03:28 GMT -5
FWIW, the consensus seems to be bat at #26, arm at #33, unless someone (including Fedde/Hoffman) unexpectedly falls to #26 (the idea being that there are less interesting bats and more interesting arms likely to fall to #33). I have also heard Vallot as one of many names in the conversation; I note that he likely ends up at 1B or as a corner OF. BTW, I am not on the Blandino bandwagon. With every mock draft I somehow get less excited. Is that possible?
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Post by burythehammer on Jun 3, 2014 15:41:33 GMT -5
Keith Law's new mock is out.. 26. Alex Blandino SCHOOL: Stanford HT: 6-0 WT: 190 POS: 3B Analysis: I've heard they would like a college bat with this pick, with Blandino or A.J. Reed possibilities, but I don't think they would be thrilled in such a scenario. . [/i] [/quote] Am I reading this wrong or is he saying there won't be anyone available at 26 that they'd be happy with?
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Post by adiospaydro2005 on Jun 3, 2014 15:53:23 GMT -5
FWIW, the consensus seems to be bat at #26, arm at #33, unless someone (including Fedde/Hoffman) unexpectedly falls to #26 (the idea being that there are less interesting bats and more interesting arms likely to fall to #33). I have also heard Vallot as one of many names in the conversation; I note that he likely ends up at 1B or as a corner OF. BTW, I am not on the Blandino bandwagon. With every mock draft I somehow get less excited. Is that possible? I am in the same camp when I see names like Blandino, Reed, etc. linked with the Red Sox. They have been burned with late helium guys, such as Vitek who have low ceilings. I want to see the Red Sox take a high ceiling guy at #26 such as Harrison, Gatewood, Gettys, Wilson,C Chavis, etc.
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Post by grandsalami on Jun 3, 2014 16:01:14 GMT -5
FWIW, the consensus seems to be bat at #26, arm at #33, unless someone (including Fedde/Hoffman) unexpectedly falls to #26 (the idea being that there are less interesting bats and more interesting arms likely to fall to #33). I have also heard Vallot as one of many names in the conversation; I note that he likely ends up at 1B or as a corner OF. BTW, I am not on the Blandino bandwagon. With every mock draft I somehow get less excited. Is that possible? eh, Still think we grab someone good given where we are
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Post by amfox1 on Jun 3, 2014 16:09:54 GMT -5
I am in the same camp when I see names like Blandino, Reed, etc. linked with the Red Sox. They have been burned with late helium guys, such as Vitek who have low ceilings. I want to see the Red Sox take a high ceiling guy at #26 such as Harrison, Gatewood, Gettys, Wilson,C Chavis, etc. It's funny to see how people love high-ceiling guys and then go crazy when they don't immediately produce (see Ball, Trey). (not specifically pointed to adiospaydro) BTW, I would not lump Harrison, Gatewood, Gettys and Chavis together; their questions are completely different. I would take Harrison, if available at #26. Not sure I'd touch the others, depending on who was on the board.
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Post by kman22 on Jun 3, 2014 16:46:44 GMT -5
I'm still hoping for Braxton Davidson at 33.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jun 3, 2014 16:48:36 GMT -5
The problem with the comparison to the Ball pick is Meadows was right there for the taking. Obviously I'm no expert but I think thats why a lot of people are complaining about the pick. If we had the # 8 pick and meadows was gone already, maybe there wouldnt be as many complaints.
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Post by bigpupp on Jun 3, 2014 16:52:33 GMT -5
With every mock draft I somehow get less excited. Is that possible? I am in the same camp when I see names like Blandino, Reed, etc. linked with the Red Sox. They have been burned with late helium guys, such as Vitek who have low ceilings. I want to see the Red Sox take a high ceiling guy at #26 such as Harrison, Gatewood, Gettys, Wilson,C Chavis, etc. This isn't just you, because I've seen it quite a few times, but where are people getting the idea that Vitek was a helium guy? He was mocked as high as 8th that draft year for MONTHS prior to the draft. In anything he fell. If your looking for a helium Sox pick then Raymond Fuentes is your guy.
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Post by tonyc on Jun 3, 2014 18:03:24 GMT -5
Amfox,
You're so right on, a year ago people wanted the sox to "swing for the fences", and there is now so much laughable skepticism. Sure Ball could burn out, but I love the pick.. just as I have always loved Allan Webster's potential- there were posts last year to "sell high" on him! This is all much akin to the skepticism about any of our top 6 pitchers becoming one's or twos- pitchers just have great fluctuation, even once in the majors- we could have none- or 3-4.
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