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Potential Free Agent Starter for Next Year?
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Post by sarasoxer on Nov 8, 2012 20:11:19 GMT -5
Well, the Yankees do too and have given him the 13.3M qualifying offer. It would seem on the surface that we would have to outbid the MFYs by some margin to obtain his services. He had great success in N.Y., played for a team with a much more competitive record in 2012, one that could again compete for a championship in 2013, and is looking for a one year deal. The Yanks want one year guys as they strain to get under the 2014 financial limbo stick. Realistically, this situation has the hallmarks of a perfect match. It might take $20M to pry him loose AND would we not lose our second round draft pick to N.Y.? IMHO...forget about Kuroda...not going to happen. I think that our best transitional bets to date are Sanchez & Masterson. The first will not cost a draft pick and the second is a favored son. Sanchez might be a 3 or 4 guy in the A.L. and Masterson, I think, would be best served as a power multi-inning RH bullpen arm. Given the limited average innings pitched per start of Lester, Doubront, Morales and others, this would serve us well.
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Post by patrmac04 on Nov 8, 2012 21:40:51 GMT -5
I personally like the idea of getting Kuroda... he was a rock in the yankees rotation last year and he won't command a very long contract. I would want to sign him for am incentive laden two year deal with a team option if we are to give up a pick. The guy can pitch. Only giving a second round pick keeps us from losing many prospects in a trade. He is also proven to handle the pressure in New York more importantly.
Sent from my SGH-T999 using proboards
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Post by mjammz on Nov 8, 2012 21:59:05 GMT -5
According to Morosi, Sanchez wants around 90 million dollars. I'm not giving him 90 million dollars but, I would be willing to give him close to 60-65 million based on age and the fact he is on the up tick in his career.
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Post by jmei on Nov 9, 2012 0:47:43 GMT -5
The Mets are apparently considering a trade of R.A. Dickey since their contract extension negotiations have reached an impasse ( link). Should the Red Sox inquire on him? Why I think they should: - He is a legitimate top-of-the-rotation pitcher. Between 2010 and 2012, Dickey is 11th in MLB in ERA (2.95) over 616 IP, sandwiched between Matt Cain and Cole Hamels. (Sidenote: we know that knuckleballers tend to outperform their peripherals, and over that sample size I'm confident that a lot of the luck is screened out and so we can reliably use ERA rather than FIP/xFIP.) In 2012 in particular he took a firm step towards elite status-- his peripherals were excellent (8.86 K/9, 2.08 BB/9), he won 20 games, and will probably end up in the top 3 in Cy Young voting. WAR underrates his true talent because of the knuckleball, but he still managed 4.6 WAR in 2012, putting him in the same range as pitchers like CC Sabathia and James Shields.
- There aren't many other top-of-the-rotation pitchers available. Greinke will almost certainly re-up with the Angels, Kuroda will almost certainly re-up with the Yankees, and Josh Johnson probably won't be traded this offseason (and comes with injury risks). The Anibal Sanchezs and Edwin Jacksons of the world are a clear step down.
- Dickey will be undervalued because he's a unique talent-- a 38-year-old knuckleballer who lacks a UCL in his pitching arm. The same attributes which increase his risk also drive down his price to the point where he'd be a tremendous bargain if he continues to perform at his 2010-12 level. He might be amenable to a contract a tic less than what Sanchez or Jackson might command (I'm thinking like 3 years, $50m (replacing his existing $5m deal for 2013)-- fewer years, higher AAV). The Mets won't give him one since they're truly rebuilding, but the Red Sox have the salary space to take a risk like this. Think about it this way-- would you rather give that contract to Dickey or to Sanchez/Jackson? Even with Dickey's age, his superior present performance and higher ceiling make it an easy decision for me, even considering the requisite prospect return.
I really have no idea what the Mets would want in return, though, but I would strongly consider offering anyone outside the SP.com top 5 (think Brentz, Cecchini, Swihart, Owens) if we can agree to an extension with Dickey in the range I noted above. Thoughts?
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Post by welovewally on Nov 9, 2012 1:42:42 GMT -5
Absolutely not! No way will the Red Sox trade a top 10 prospect for a 38yr old pitcher. That's crazy!!
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Post by sarasoxer on Nov 9, 2012 7:40:01 GMT -5
The Mets are apparently considering a trade of R.A. Dickey since their contract extension negotiations have reached an impasse ( link). Should the Red Sox inquire on him? [/list] I really have no idea what the Mets would want in return, though, but I would strongly consider offering anyone outside the SP.com top 5 ( think Brentz, Cecchini, Swihart, Owens) if we can agree to an extension with Dickey in the range I noted above. Thoughts?[/quote] Nope, nope, nope & nope. There is a lot on analysis that went into the above but the idea of getting short term guys in our stage is to bridge the team to its prospects. Trading away any treasure to get us to a .500+ team doesn't do it for me.
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Post by dcb26 on Nov 9, 2012 8:03:48 GMT -5
For me it's the uncertainty of the knuckleball rather than how Dickey will age that makes me hesitate. I don't have a deep seated hatred of the pitch like some around here, but I have trouble believing in any sort of consistent elite production from a knuckleball.
Also, I think there's a legitimate chance the Red Sox could get Josh Johnson for a similar return to what you're discussing, and personally I'd rather take my chances on his health than Dickey's knuckleball.
Plus, I have to believe that where Dickey is pitching his home games has something to do with his success.
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Post by sibbysisti on Nov 9, 2012 9:08:38 GMT -5
Would we have to bring back Doug Mirabelli? ;D I don't trade prospects for him. A relief pitcher or two plus a Ciriaco/DeLaCruz type. But that's not likely to tempt the Mets.
Starting pitching is not the dilemma some have made it out to be. Lester and Buchhotz are good, top of the rotation guys who need to get their mechanics and thought process in order. John Lackey, who was throwing in the mid 90s in Fort Myers, looks ready to return to the rotation. Doubront showed a lot of promise in his first full season. That leaves the #5 spot. Here I'd give Morales first crack. He looked good as a starter in his brief appearances last season. Then there's always a chance a prospect could surprise, Webster or DeLaRosa.
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Post by jmei on Nov 9, 2012 10:54:30 GMT -5
I think you're collectively underrating Dickey significantly. If a non-knuckleballer had his recent success, this would require an Adrian Gonzalez-esque deal to acquire him. Yes, the knuckleball and his age create some risk, but in return both the prospect package and the resulting extension are much, much less than they would be otherwise.
I see poster after poster clamoring for an ace, and Dickey is (a) pretty much the only one available and (b) available at a below-market price. Add him to the rotation and a few lineup pieces (say, Napoli and the corner outfielder of your choice) and you have at least a wild card contender with the top-tier prospects still in the system and ready to elevate the team even further in 2014 and beyond.
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Post by pbgallag on Nov 9, 2012 11:43:32 GMT -5
Absolutely not! No way will the Red Sox trade a top 10 prospect for a 38yr old pitcher. That's crazy!! A top 10 organizational prospect is not that big of a deal. That means top 300 overall. Most of those guys amount to nothing. The Mets could easily get 1-2 of those guys for a Cy Young caliber pitcher. I'm generally against trading young talent for veterans but if the Mets wanted only one of our #6-10 for Dickey then you do it without thinking twice. But the Mets will expect more than that and rightfully so.
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Post by dcb26 on Nov 9, 2012 21:12:47 GMT -5
I think you're collectively underrating Dickey significantly. If a non-knuckleballer had his recent success, this would require an Adrian Gonzalez-esque deal to acquire him. Dickey's WAR the past 3 years (his only successful seasons as a starter) are 2.8, 2.5, 4.6 (3.4, 3.1, 5.6 on b-ref.) In that time he's had K/9 over 6 once, and an xFIP under 3.75 once. He was good last year, but an Adrian Gonzalez deal? This sounds more like a good #3 pitcher to me - his numbers are roughly comparable to Edwin Jackson or Kuroda over that stretch. (Also, using WAR to support my point re: a pitcher. Is this how you feel all the time?)
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Post by jmei on Nov 9, 2012 22:18:52 GMT -5
WAR underrates Dickey because it calculates his value using FIP, and FIP doesn't fully capture Dickey's value since he's a knuckleballer and knuckleballs are known to generate a lower BABIP than other pitches. His BABIP over the last three years and 616.2 IP (a very robust sample size) is .277 and his ERA of 2.95 is significantly lower than his FIP of 3.55. Some of that might be explained by his home ballfield, but certainly not all of it-- his away ERA (3.14) still significantly outperforms his away FIP (3.77).
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Post by wcsoxfan on Nov 9, 2012 23:33:55 GMT -5
WAR underrates Dickey because it calculates his value using FIP, and FIP doesn't fully capture Dickey's value since he's a knuckleballer and knuckleballs are known to generate a lower BABIP than other pitches. His BABIP over the last three years and 616.2 IP (a very robust sample size) is .277 and his ERA of 2.95 is significantly lower than his FIP of 3.55. Some of that might be explained by his home ballfield, but certainly not all of it-- his away ERA (3.14) still significantly outperforms his away FIP (3.77). I think you are missing the increase in errors and passed balls as a result of being a knuckleball pitcher. Plus the need for a catcher to devote a large amount of time practicing how to catch a knuckleball which takes away from their normal hitting/catching duties. These are things which do not show up in ERA. Remember W/L is all that matters - ERA is an indicator of expected W/L and xFIP is an indicator of future ERA. Many of the negatives of a knuckleball pitcher don't show up in ERA. One of my larger worries about Dickey is that, unlike Wakefield, he does rely somewhat on his fastball velocity - which has declined consistently over the past few years.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Nov 9, 2012 23:45:38 GMT -5
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Post by buffs4444 on Nov 10, 2012 0:51:08 GMT -5
Maybe Lester returns to form....maybe Buchholz puts it all together....maybe Lackey is a serviceable #3 starter.....lot of questions there.
This is a team that should either be adding top-tier talent or selling off assets in a complete rebuild. Adding middle of the road pieces like Feldman, Kuroda, Sanchez, et al aren't going to fix what ails this club. Either creatively & intelligently pull the trigger on adding the premium talent this team needs or be ballsy enough to re-tool in this market.
Coffee is for closers, Ben. Grab a mug and pick a direction.....
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Post by sarasoxer on Nov 10, 2012 7:43:44 GMT -5
I think you're collectively underrating Dickey significantly. If a non-knuckleballer had his recent success, this would require an Adrian Gonzalez-esque deal to acquire him. Yes, the knuckleball and his age create some risk, but in return both the prospect package and the resulting extension are much, much less than they would be otherwise. I see poster after poster clamoring for an ace, and Dickey is (a) pretty much the only one available and (b) available at a below-market price. Add him to the rotation and a few lineup pieces (say, Napoli and the corner outfielder of your choice) and you have at least a wild card contender with the top-tier prospects still in the system and ready to elevate the team even further in 2014 and beyond. My issue jmei is that Dickey is not the difference from a 69 win team to a 95 win one. Sure there were extenuating circumstances with injuries and a dysfunctional team. A return to normalcy will give us a big boost just because. But let's not kid ourselves either. We are a ways away and our best hitter, who has a less than perfect body type, is an old player. Two years from now Papi will be gone as would Dickey (probably) if we had him. Then where would we be? Now, we can't trade Papi...wouldn't be right. He has been good to us and been a loyal trooper. He wants to stay and will likely be a good-will ambassador for years after he is gone from the field. But Dickey, at his age, is exactly the kind of guy we would be looking to trade..not trade for..if he were on our team. 'Maybe we can get some prospects' people would say. So, my position is to turn the page and look farther forward. I already feel excitement in the air by the steady change of course the team is charting. I am heartened that we did not jump on some of the less than marquee free agents. Let other teams get bloated if they want to. With apologies to John Candy and Dewey Oxberger, I would rather be a "lean, mean, fightin' machine".
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steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,826
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Post by steveofbradenton on Nov 10, 2012 8:48:04 GMT -5
Maybe Lester returns to form....maybe Buchholz puts it all together....maybe Lackey is a serviceable #3 starter.....lot of questions there. This is a team that should either be adding top-tier talent or selling off assets in a complete rebuild. Adding middle of the road pieces like Feldman, Kuroda, Sanchez, et al aren't going to fix what ails this club. Either creatively & intelligently pull the trigger on adding the premium talent this team needs or be ballsy enough to re-tool in this market. Coffee is for closers, Ben. Grab a mug and pick a direction..... When you look at the figures Anibal Sanchez is looking for I, more than ever, think we need to think more clearly about the year 2014 as the year. Sanchez is NOT even close to being an ace and probably someone will actually come close to the $90 million he is looking for. Crazy! Read today's article in the Herald that mentions Sanchez half way down: www.bostonherald.com/sports/baseball/red_sox/view/20221110little_urge_to_splurge/If he, or someone comparable, will take 3 years at $36 to $39, it may be worth it. But this throwing money at mediocre talent needs to stop. We have some great kids coming. Their development THIS year is much more important than over-paying for these guys. I'm all for one year contracts this year with a few 2-years if necessary. This goes for 1st base, corner outfield, and the rotation. It's a little scary, for me, giving Adam Laroche a 3 year at his age and him coming off a career year. Find a starter, or two, who will take a one year contract. And then.....lets watch De La Rosa, Webster, and Barnes make their adjustments in 2013 and become the next "wave" of Red Sox starters. I bet a couple of our kids will be knocking on the door in 2014, and maybe earlier! Lets be patient!
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wcp3
Veteran
Posts: 3,824
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Post by wcp3 on Nov 10, 2012 8:52:15 GMT -5
/quote] One of my larger worries about Dickey is that, unlike Wakefield, he does rely somewhat on his fastball velocity - which has declined consistently over the past few years. ...yet his numbers have stayed pretty much the same, or even gotten better, the last three years. I'm probably the biggest knuckleball hater on this board, but if Dickey can be had for a reasonable deal, it's a no-brainer. I'm just not sure he can be had for a reasonable deal.
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 10, 2012 9:12:03 GMT -5
WAR underrates Dickey because it calculates his value using FIP, and FIP doesn't fully capture Dickey's value since he's a knuckleballer and knuckleballs are known to generate a lower BABIP than other pitches. His BABIP over the last three years and 616.2 IP (a very robust sample size) is .277 and his ERA of 2.95 is significantly lower than his FIP of 3.55. Some of that might be explained by his home ballfield, but certainly not all of it-- his away ERA (3.14) still significantly outperforms his away FIP (3.77). I'll go a step further and state that FanGraphs WAR systematically underrates pitchers who consistenly outperform their WAR (Glavine, Buehrle, Cain, knuckleballers) and overrates pitcher who consistently underperform it (Burnett, tons of others). It's one of the reasons I prefer b-ref's version of WAR better than FanGraphs'. I think trying to use xFIP to calculate WAR misses the point. WAR is supposed to be a retroactive value calculation. "How many wins was R.A. Dickey worth above replacement in 2012," not "how many wins would R.A. Dickey have been worth above replacement in 2012 under standard temperature and pressure."
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Post by jmei on Nov 10, 2012 10:23:35 GMT -5
I think you are missing the increase in errors and passed balls as a result of being a knuckleball pitcher. Plus the need for a catcher to devote a large amount of time practicing how to catch a knuckleball which takes away from their normal hitting/catching duties. These are things which do not show up in ERA. Remember W/L is all that matters - ERA is an indicator of expected W/L and xFIP is an indicator of future ERA. Many of the negatives of a knuckleball pitcher don't show up in ERA. The data really just doesn't bear this out. The ratio of earned runs to earned + unearned runs for all pitchers is 1.086. For Dickey over the last three years, it is 1.11-- higher than average, certainly, but not a particular outlier. Over the past three years, pitchers such as Matt Cain (1.10), James Shields (1.11), Clayton Kershaw (1.11), C.C. Sabathia (1.12), Felix Hernandez (1.13), Justin Verlander (1.15), and C.J. Wilson (1.16) (and many more) all give up a similar or higher ratio of unearned runs to earned runs. As for wild pitches, Dickey's total of 24 in the last three years is not especially high either-- in the range of Verlander (20), Haren (23), and Shields (24) and less than the likes of E. Jackson (32), Lincecum (35), Kuroda (37), and F. Hernandez (39).
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Post by jmei on Nov 10, 2012 10:40:47 GMT -5
My issue jmei is that Dickey is not the difference from a 69 win team to a 95 win one. Sure there were extenuating circumstances with injuries and a dysfunctional team. A return to normalcy will give us a big boost just because. But let's not kid ourselves either. We are a ways away and our best hitter, who has a less than perfect body type, is an old player. Two years from now Papi will be gone as would Dickey (probably) if we had him. Then where would we be? Now, we can't trade Papi...wouldn't be right. He has been good to us and been a loyal trooper. He wants to stay and will likely be a good-will ambassador for years after he is gone from the field. But Dickey, at his age, is exactly the kind of guy we would be looking to trade..not trade for..if he were on our team. 'Maybe we can get some prospects' people would say. So, my position is to turn the page and look farther forward. I already feel excitement in the air by the steady change of course the team is charting. I am heartened that we did not jump on some of the less than marquee free agents. Let other teams get bloated if they want to. With apologies to John Candy and Dewey Oxberger, I would rather be a "lean, mean, fightin' machine". I think a combination of Dickey, Napoli, and the reasonably-priced outfielders of your choice (as well as regression to the mean by Lester and Buchholz) brings this team to 85-90 wins and competition for a wild card spot, with elite prospects like Bogaerts, Bradley, De La Rosa, Webster, Brentz, and maybe Barnes theoretically ready for Spring Training 2014. Don't be scared off by Dickey's age-- the knuckleball is historically a very low-stress pitch and few knuckleballers seem to experience a significant performance decline as they age. Yes, Dickey might be more vulnerable to injuries generally, but he doesn't have a lengthy injury history or record of chronic injuries, and he's shown elite performance when healthy. More generally, I really don't understand this focus on one-year deals. The Red Sox have tons of salary space and will continue to have it in 2014. Even if you think 2014 is the real title contention year, why not begin acquiring undervalued assets (Dickey, Napoli, D. Ross, etc.) now? The 2014 free agent pool looks pretty shallow ( link) and the only real stars are at positions the Red Sox have filled (2B, 3B, CF). Moreover, the players I and others generally want the Red Sox to acquire won't really be blocking any prospects, with maybe the exception of starting pitching. There is no real 1B talent in the system (I'm not really a believer in Shaw) and starting-caliber corner outfield at the higher minors is bare aside from Brentz (and maybe Kalish). As for starting pitching, if De La Rosa/Webster/Barnes are knocking at the door in 2014, there's no reason the FO can't ditch Lackey or shift Doubront to the bullpen, and injuries/poor performance will have solved that "logjam" anyways.
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Post by dcb26 on Nov 10, 2012 11:07:18 GMT -5
It's one of the reasons I prefer b-ref's version of WAR better than FanGraphs'. I think trying to use xFIP to calculate WAR misses the point. WAR is supposed to be a retroactive value calculation. "How many wins was R.A. Dickey worth above replacement in 2012," not "how many wins would R.A. Dickey have been worth above replacement in 2012 under standard temperature and pressure." Agree with you if you're using WAR to measure past success (this is why I included both WAR numbers) although I admit I kind-of still like plain old ERA for that. However, in this case, I'm not particularly concerned with what Dickey did in 2012, he was very good to great, no doubt. I'm more concerned with whether he will be able to do that again. Then there's the age thing. Even Wakefield was starting to show signs of breaking down by the time he hit 40, and he was lower stress and less reliant on his fastball than Dickey. Frankly, even if I'm wrong in everything else I've said, Dickey is a guy who's had his career year last year, driving up his value and making him a huge sell-high candidate. I just don't see giving up anything significant for a guy like that. If the Mets are shopping him, there's a reason why. If he were a free agent I'd be interested, but there's no way I would give up anything more than a fringe prospect for him
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Post by wcsoxfan on Nov 10, 2012 11:49:20 GMT -5
I'll go a step further and state that FanGraphs WAR systematically underrates pitchers who consistenly outperform their WAR (Glavine, Buehrle, Cain, knuckleballers) and overrates pitcher who consistently underperform it (Burnett, tons of others). It's one of the reasons I prefer b-ref's version of WAR better than FanGraphs'. I think trying to use xFIP to calculate WAR misses the point. WAR is supposed to be a retroactive value calculation. "How many wins was R.A. Dickey worth above replacement in 2012," not "how many wins would R.A. Dickey have been worth above replacement in 2012 under standard temperature and pressure." I don't disagree with you on how these tools are calculated, but I strongly disagree with the value of the tools. Fangraphs WAR is constructed more as a predictor of future results, not a valuation of past results (as you mentioned). ERA and W/L indicate the most useful components of past results. It doesn't matter how amazing a pitcher is - if he loses in ever appearance then he doesn't help the team (aside from pitching innings to rest other pitchers of course). b-ref's war seems to be more of a tool to debate 'who was the best pitcher last year?' and 'who should have won the Cy Young'. Although these are fun bar room debates, they shouldn't be used in deciding who the Red Sox should sign for next year. Although I admit - xFIP does have its flaws as some pitchers consistently under, or over, perform their peripherals.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Nov 10, 2012 12:00:20 GMT -5
The data really just doesn't bear this out. The ratio of earned runs to earned + unearned runs for all pitchers is 1.086. For Dickey over the last three years, it is 1.11-- higher than average, certainly, but not a particular outlier. Over the past three years, pitchers such as Matt Cain (1.10), James Shields (1.11), Clayton Kershaw (1.11), C.C. Sabathia (1.12), Felix Hernandez (1.13), Justin Verlander (1.15), and C.J. Wilson (1.16) (and many more) all give up a similar or higher ratio of unearned runs to earned runs. As for wild pitches, Dickey's total of 24 in the last three years is not especially high either-- in the range of Verlander (20), Haren (23), and Shields (24) and less than the likes of E. Jackson (32), Lincecum (35), Kuroda (37), and F. Hernandez (39). Perhaps we are making different points. I was pointing out the pitfalls of using knuckleball pitchers as whole, where it appears you are speaking directly of Dickey. These are good points that Dickey's pitfalls, although still a minor hindrance, seem to be similar to the levels of many non-knuckleball pitchers who we rarely come to mind when thinking of these issues. Why do you think this is? Perhaps it is due to his average knuckleball velocity of 76 mph? (Wakefield was 66 mph) In which case - will he still be throwing 76mph 2 or 3 years from now? My biggest concern is that I want the Red Sox to only pickup players who are capable of being franchise building blocks OR who are short-term and require little non-monetary compensation. If you Dickey will be able to keep up his recent production for another 5+ years, then it would be a great move to trade for him. I don't find this to be likely, but you may think differently and I may be wrong - only time will tell.
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 10, 2012 13:49:44 GMT -5
I don't disagree with you on how these tools are calculated, but I strongly disagree with the value of the tools. Fangraphs WAR is constructed more as a predictor of future results, not a valuation of past results (as you mentioned). ERA and W/L indicate the most useful components of past results. It doesn't matter how amazing a pitcher is - if he loses in ever appearance then he doesn't help the team (aside from pitching innings to rest other pitchers of course). b-ref's war seems to be more of a tool to debate 'who was the best pitcher last year?' and 'who should have won the Cy Young'. Although these are fun bar room debates, they shouldn't be used in deciding who the Red Sox should sign for next year. Although I admit - xFIP does have its flaws as some pitchers consistently under, or over, perform their peripherals. I agree with you on everything here. I just think that WAR *should* be an indicator who produced the best results in the past season, rather than a predictor of future events. WAR, to me, has a kind of record-keeping quality to it. So I suspect that our level of disagreement on this doesn't run very deeply. You clearly understand what both B-Ref and FanGraphs WAR calculations measure, and it really just comes down to what we, as individuals, WANT them to measure. You're right that past results shouldn't necessarily be the decider in who the Red Sox acquire (not any more than any past success predicts future success, at least). My point was more that xFIP, and by extension, FanGraphs WAR calculation, had systematically underrated Dickey in the past. There are good reasons for the Red Sox not to trade for R.A. Dickey. I just don't consider his xFIP to be one of them, because he's shown a statistically significant ability to outpitch it.
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