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Potential Free Agent Starter for Next Year?
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Post by elguapo on Nov 10, 2012 17:23:43 GMT -5
Kuroda declines qualifying offer, but between the Dodgers and Yankees and the draft compensation, it seems unlikely the Sox end up signing him.
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Post by sarasoxer on Nov 10, 2012 17:49:25 GMT -5
Kuroda declines qualifying offer, but between the Dodgers and Yankees and the draft compensation, it seems unlikely the Sox end up signing him. Good. Let's get younger, stronger, faster and hungrier.
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steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,826
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Post by steveofbradenton on Nov 10, 2012 21:03:53 GMT -5
Kuroda declines qualifying offer, but between the Dodgers and Yankees and the draft compensation, it seems unlikely the Sox end up signing him. Little worried about having to give Kuroda, at 38, a 2 year contract.......and losing our 2nd rounder in the draft. Granted he was excellent this year, but will he be in 2014. This decision by the front office will definitely give us insight in what they are thinking with respect to 2013. A signing of Kuroda means they are all in for 2013. If Ben can add the right parts, that is great. But if we are not sure, I'd rather look for someone who either won't lose us a draft pick or is younger.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Nov 10, 2012 23:20:03 GMT -5
I agree with you on everything here. I just think that WAR *should* be an indicator who produced the best results in the past season, rather than a predictor of future events. WAR, to me, has a kind of record-keeping quality to it. So I suspect that our level of disagreement on this doesn't run very deeply. You clearly understand what both B-Ref and FanGraphs WAR calculations measure, and it really just comes down to what we, as individuals, WANT them to measure. You're right that past results shouldn't necessarily be the decider in who the Red Sox acquire (not any more than any past success predicts future success, at least). My point was more that xFIP, and by extension, FanGraphs WAR calculation, had systematically underrated Dickey in the past. There are good reasons for the Red Sox not to trade for R.A. Dickey. I just don't consider his xFIP to be one of them, because he's shown a statistically significant ability to outpitch it. Seems as though we agree on this. Perhaps fangraphs war should be regard as xWAR or something of the like so that we can have to seperate WARs for two separate purposes. As far as the predictors being off for Dickey: It seems to me that this is the case for most soft tossers. Perhaps this is because they tend to pitch to contact more and often do a better job of fielding their position (because they have more time AND because they have to in order to stick)
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 10, 2012 23:33:15 GMT -5
Intriguing theory. The statheads seemed to agree early on that DIPS didn't apply to knuckleballers, so it wouldn't surprise me if, in general, non-traditional soft-tossers in general threw some kinks into the FIP cog. Matt Cain is something of an anomaly though, as he's not a soft tosser but has generally kept his BABIP consistently low. There's a good, in-depth statistical study here that I don't have the time (or skill with statistics, to be honest) to take on.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Nov 11, 2012 12:22:28 GMT -5
Intriguing theory. The statheads seemed to agree early on that DIPS didn't apply to knuckleballers, so it wouldn't surprise me if, in general, non-traditional soft-tossers in general threw some kinks into the FIP cog. Matt Cain is something of an anomaly though, as he's not a soft tosser but has generally kept his BABIP consistently low. There's a good, in-depth statistical study here that I don't have the time (or skill with statistics, to be honest) to take on. I think the short version is this: he's an outlier in terms of his ability to limit power while giving up lots of fly balls, and on top of that, his home park is the perfect place to exploit that ability. Matt Cain at AT&T might be the best pitcher in the game. In 2012 batters "hit" .202/.244/.304 against him at home. Amazing pitcher. Not necessarily a great fit for the Red Sox unless we can also trade for the San Francisco Bay.
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Post by jmei on Nov 11, 2012 12:47:25 GMT -5
Err... that's not really true. Dickey actually gets a good number of ground balls-- his GB rate is 50.5% in the last three years, which is 19th highest in major league baseball amongst qualified pitchers in the last three years. That's comparable to Jon Lester (51%) or Clay Buchholz (49.4%) and much less than guys like Cain (38.4%), Jered Weaver (34.7%), or Verlander (41.2%).
Moreover, his HR/FB rate over that time period is 9.5%, which is not really a significant outlier from the major league average of 10.6%. He does give up fewer home runs per fly ball at home (8%) than on the road (10.8%), but he's still an excellent pitcher if you substitute in his road HR/FB considering he doesn't give up that many fly balls.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Nov 11, 2012 16:08:49 GMT -5
I was talking about Cain, not Dickey.
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Post by jmei on Nov 11, 2012 18:16:21 GMT -5
Oh, sorry, my bad.
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Post by sarasoxer on Nov 11, 2012 18:29:00 GMT -5
Gee, none of the rest of us here has ever done that (cough, cough).
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Post by welovewally on Nov 29, 2012 6:37:07 GMT -5
Trade Lester & whoever else it takes to KC for Myers, sign Grienke & Sanchez and let the kids play the field.
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Post by jdb on Nov 29, 2012 8:25:12 GMT -5
Has there been any Braves rumors? They have eight starters. Hudson, Medlin, Delgado, Minor, Teheran, Hanson, Maholm and Beachy comes back around the break. Hanson would probably make sense for them bc he is entering his arb years and has had an injury. I just think after their Upton signing they might need to trade a SP to free up some money to address either LF or 3B which ever one Prado doesn't fill. I think in the next few years C and LF will be holes so maybe we match up.
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Post by mantush on Nov 29, 2012 10:33:32 GMT -5
Dallas Braden isn't the greatest pitcher in the world, but if we are going to be signing depth guys in the mold of Ohlendorf again, I hope Cherington et al. throw him a minor league deal with a Spring Training invite. He could return to form next year.
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 29, 2012 14:21:05 GMT -5
Haren on a 1 year deal with a team or vesting option for a second year at about 12-15M per season is who the Sox should sign. As far as i'm concerned he has the most upside and is the most proven of any starter that won't require a lot of years and a monster contract.
He can also be a potential way to buy good prospects, if he has a strong first half and the team doesn't look like a contender.
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Post by jmei on Nov 29, 2012 14:34:23 GMT -5
I guarantee there is something wrong with Haren's medicals given the aborted Angels-Cubs trade and the Angels' subsequent inability to trade him before the option deadline. The Chicago-Sun Times cited an unnamed source who said that "medical issues" caused the Haren-Marmol deal to fall through, and the fact that the Angels were unable to trade what amounted to a one-year, $12m deal for anything of value should back that up. I'd love to get Haren if he was healthy, but all available evidence (including declining velocity numbers) point in the opposite direction.
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steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,826
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Post by steveofbradenton on Nov 29, 2012 14:34:42 GMT -5
Haren on a 1 year deal with a team or vesting option for a second year at about 12-15M per season is who the Sox should sign. As far as i'm concerned he has the most upside and is the most proven of any starter that won't require a lot of years and a monster contract. He can also be a potential way to buy good prospects, if he has a strong first half and the team doesn't look like a contender. He is actually my favorite also. I would think we could sign him to some type of incentive laden 2-year contract. Always liked his command. I want strike throwers after putting up with guys like Dice-K and to some degree Jon Lester. Haren would be a great pick-up even as a "tutor" on how to pitch for guys like Barnes and Webster
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Nov 29, 2012 15:33:04 GMT -5
I guarantee there is something wrong with Haren's medicals given the aborted Angels-Cubs trade and the Angels' subsequent inability to trade him before the option deadline. The Chicago-Sun Times cited an unnamed source who said that "medical issues" caused the Haren-Marmol deal to fall through, and the fact that the Angels were unable to trade what amounted to a one-year, $12m deal for anything of value should back that up. I'd love to get Haren if he was healthy, but all available evidence (including declining velocity numbers) point in the opposite direction. I wouldn't quite put it such stark terms....but I generally agree. There's just no way that you can give $12M to a player who's health is a legitimate question mark. You'd have to give him a lot less guaranteed with games started incentives unless your medical staff gave him the green light.
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 29, 2012 21:54:12 GMT -5
Yea, I don't know about his medicals - he made 30 starts and pitched well down the stretch - if there are medical flags then use it to your advantage but no reason the Sox should get out bid for him with their salary situation. They won't even come close to hitting the payroll limits this season so there is little reason not to take a chance. Too much upside on different fronts and its short term. I can't think of a better fit.
The Sox are 100% in position to overspend on 1 or 2 year deals.
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Post by Guidas on Nov 29, 2012 22:32:49 GMT -5
[The Red Sox lost in 2011 because of their starting pitching. Instead of pursuing mid-range talent which could have made them better - Kuroda and Jackson, for example, both of whom would've been the best pitcher on the staff this year - they decided that their current crop was good enough. This is nonsense. Kuroda (who I wanted) or Jackson wouldn't have put the Sox into the playoffs. And they decided that the era of lux spending was over and it was time to pinch pennies, not that the current rotation was good enough. And they did in fact replace the worst 3 pitchers from the 2011 rotation. And if they WERE going to spend they should have gotten Yu Darvish. Right there with you on Darvish. Huge opportunity lost and would've been LuxeTax friendly. Grienke is the only elite pitcher in the FA market, and he's young enough to justify a 5 yr deal. But he's a solid step below King Felix, Verlander, Kershaw & Price. He would make the Sox better but not as much as any of those guys. I would be all for that, but if the Sox were serious they would trade Lester for Myers then package Myers, Bogaerts & Barnes for The King. Then go buy a #3-4 guy like McCarthy or a #4-5 like Jackson. I can't see any of that (including simply buying Grienke) happening. So the march of mediocrity will continue.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Nov 30, 2012 8:16:21 GMT -5
I would be all for that, but if the Sox were serious they would trade Lester for Myers then package Myers, Bogaerts & Barnes for The King. Then go buy a #3-4 guy like McCarthy or a #4-5 like Jackson. I can't see any of that (including simply buying Grienke) happening. So the march of mediocrity will continue. Right, and then in two years after not winning anything Felix can leave for a competitive team... like the Mariners.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 30, 2012 13:31:14 GMT -5
I would be all for that, but if the Sox were serious they would trade Lester for Myers then package Myers, Bogaerts & Barnes for The King. Then go buy a #3-4 guy like McCarthy or a #4-5 like Jackson. I can't see any of that (including simply buying Grienke) happening. So the march of mediocrity will continue. Right, and then in two years after not winning anything Felix can leave for a competitive team... like the Mariners. Or worse, the Yankees. I want Hernandez as much as everybody else, but I wouldn't get rid of guys like Bogaerts. I'd wait until he's a free agent, and make sure that big money is earmarked and available for him (meaning it wasn't wasted on underperforming overpaid second tier free agents).
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Post by jmei on Dec 4, 2012 0:54:49 GMT -5
I thought this was an interesting read comparing Greinke and Anibal Sanchez, which included the following: Here’s some more information to consider, also 2010-2012:
K% BB% Strike% Contact% Zone% Greinke 23% 6% 63% 79% 47% Sanchez 21% 7% 65% 78% 52% Continuing, Greinke is showing signs of gradual velocity loss. His fastball is down a tick from a few years ago, which is not unexpected, given how pitchers tend to age. Sanchez, though, has gained a little velocity, perhaps picking up strength as he gets further from his shoulder operation. Sanchez throws his fastball nearly as hard as Greinke does, now, and that isn’t the only evidence that Sanchez has been picking up steam and/or simply improving.
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Post by dcri on Dec 6, 2012 18:51:06 GMT -5
I can't recall if this has been discussed previously, but what are the chances that Tazawa could be converted to a starter?
The bullpen now is packed and, as I recall, Tazawa was a starter before his TJ surgery. He appeared to be very sharp at the end of this . If they are going to try Morales as a starter, why not Tazawa as well?
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Post by patrmac04 on Dec 6, 2012 18:57:36 GMT -5
I can't recall if this has been discussed previously, but what are the chances that Tazawa could be converted to a starter? The bullpen now is packed and, as I recall, Tazawa was a starter before his TJ surgery. He appeared to be very sharp at the end of this . If they are going to try Morales as a starter, why not Tazawa as well? I had the same line of thinking. People said it would take too long to ramp up his innings. With the time lost to his TJ surgery we lost a lot of time with him since he signed an MLB deal I believe. The thinking would be to get some use out of him before time runs out. Personally... I would like to see him stretched out like Morales was this past year and split the season with Morales as he tires out.
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Post by welovewally on Dec 8, 2012 2:02:49 GMT -5
Red Sox are reportedly interested in a 3yr deal for Kyle Lohse. www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/12/quick-hits-lohse-soriano-appel-salaries.htmlWhat do they offer, the going rate of 3/39? Hope not. 1 year with some kind of vesting option based on health, games started, innings pitched for '14 & a team option for '15 sounds right to me. Why aren't they interested in Sanchez for 6 years ages 28 - 34? If they're going to spend money why not spend it on Starting Pitching.
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