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2014 Non-Red Sox MLB thread
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 22, 2014 6:47:47 GMT -5
If Sizemore put up that line he would have had the third highest production on the team over that period of time. That is different from saying he'd be the third best hitter on the team. And therein is the value of DIPS that you seem to so regularly dismiss. Fair enough, Sizemore would have been the third most productive. This really has nothing to do with DIPS only a statement that Sizemore hasn't sucked since he was picked up by the Philies. It also has nothing to do with how I think he will do going forward. It's only saying he hasn't sucked since he was released. If you think third most productive hitter on a major league team qualifies in the sucks category, that's your choice. Using advanced metrics for projection is great, loved WMB's 30 HRs. Any "advanced metric" that strictly measures production would indicate that Sizemore has been productive for the Phillies. But being productive for a month is a very different thing from being a good baseball player. And please, let me know who projected WMB for 30 HRs.
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Post by mgoetze on Aug 22, 2014 7:50:48 GMT -5
And please, let me know who projected WMB for 30 HRs. Oliver had 25, ZiPS and Steamer both had 20.
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Post by joshv02 on Aug 22, 2014 8:04:33 GMT -5
This discussion is taking a left hand into the stupid.
Previously, the entire point that ray was making was "if a guy does well, even if it is not sustainable, it does not 'suck'," which was made clear by the agreement with Chav. That is a little more controversial than it sounds like (it makes a normative claim regarding the ownership of "luck", though we don't need to get into that now), but its fine, its just a silly discussion regarding word choice confused with "sabermetrics".
OK. Fine.
Now, we are getting into if a single projection for a single player being wrong dooms projection systems, which is tangentially related to "advanced metrics" (whatever that is supposed to mean here), BABIP, DIPS, whatever else. And it ignores that Will Middlebrooks has always been a scouting player story - not a advanced metrics, projection system, nerd-boy story. Middlebrooks looks good in his jeans - just ask Jenny. This is an advanced HS athlete, two sport player, who had a small sample size of success in the upper majors, and who was generally thought by performance focused individuals as being overrated. So, even the silly example is itself sillier than presented.
This is worse than a call in radio show.
It is impossible at this point to reinvent the DIPS/FIP/BABIP whatever arguments. Please, just read the vast history of the arguments before at least starting to try to make the arguments again. I have no yet seen a single original argument made, and the much more nuanced, intelligent, complicated arguments have all been made before, and much of them repeated/parroted on this forum.
This should be lesson #1 on all message boards for all topics, but it is especially true here: before anyone posts, at least try to figure out if it is an original idea, what the complications of that argument are, and the current state of the debate. There are over 6 billion people in this world, many of whom are significantly smarter than most of us - some humility (dissuading ourselves from thinking we are original) makes us a lot smarter if we just try.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 22, 2014 8:46:40 GMT -5
If Sizemore put up that line he would have had the third highest production on the team over that period of time. That is different from saying he'd be the third best hitter on the team. And therein is the value of DIPS that you seem to so regularly dismiss. Fair enough, Sizemore would have been the third most productive. This really has nothing to do with DIPS only a statement that Sizemore hasn't sucked since he was picked up by the Philies. It also has nothing to do with how I think he will do going forward. It's only saying he hasn't sucked since he was released. If you think third most productive hitter on a major league team qualifies in the sucks category, that's your choice. Using advanced metrics for projection is great, loved WMB's 30 HRs. Yeah he has. He's been a bad player who's had a few balls fall in resulting in decent production for a month. That's all.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Aug 22, 2014 9:14:33 GMT -5
Fair enough, Sizemore would have been the third most productive. This really has nothing to do with DIPS only a statement that Sizemore hasn't sucked since he was picked up by the Philies. It also has nothing to do with how I think he will do going forward. It's only saying he hasn't sucked since he was released. If you think third most productive hitter on a major league team qualifies in the sucks category, that's your choice. Using advanced metrics for projection is great, loved WMB's 30 HRs. Yeah he has. He's been a bad player who's had a few balls fall in resulting in decent production for a month. That's all. I still think that strong. His production has been a plus. All signs point to him being lucky and that he is still a terrible ball player, but his production hasn't been bad. Also, not to nitpick because I've seen people say 20-25. While jumping up to 30 is stretching what people were saying, it's not extravagant. Still, his scouting reports said he had raw power potential. People were excited about the power he can generate from his swing and the numbers he started putting up in the minors. There were tons of concerns about his strike outs and his walk rate. Some thought he would be an all-star, some thought he had the potential to be a bust and some thought he would be an all-star some years and forgettable in others. Even with all of that, no saber stat can predict health which is something he has not had a lot of since his first year.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 22, 2014 11:38:05 GMT -5
Apologies for the WMB comment but it wasn't me that mentioned advanced metrics in the first place and all of a sudden it turned from a simple statement that his production doesn't suck into a finger point by the saber extremists. I'll stand by what I said earlier, thinking .294/.333/.422/.755 sucks is moronic. And please, let me know who projected WMB for 30 HRs. Oliver had 25, ZiPS and Steamer both had 20. James had 30 Seriously? Doubling down on the "I'm not wrong" again? LOL, too long of a story but I crossed paths with Chuck Norris in Las Vegas. He thought I was his good luck charm and would request my presence when he played Blackjack. He called me either Lucky or more often Double Down.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 22, 2014 17:35:00 GMT -5
Eye on Baseball ?@eyeonbaseball 8m Report: Manny Machado to undergo knee surgery, likely out for season cbsprt.co/1zeBNEN via @cbssports Put Middlebrooks on waivers, maybe we can get an Eddy Rodriguez. Hunter Harvey would work .
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Post by Don Caballero on Aug 22, 2014 21:37:48 GMT -5
It's only saying he hasn't sucked since he was released. Yeah he has. He's been a bad player who's had a few balls fall in resulting in decent production for a month. That's all. That's the very definition of "not sucking".
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Post by soxfanatic on Aug 24, 2014 17:28:40 GMT -5
Wow the Nationals are good.
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Post by Don Caballero on Aug 24, 2014 17:56:00 GMT -5
Wow the Nationals are good. I should have screencapped my awesome prediction of them coming out on top of the NL. That team is stacked, great line-up, great rotation and great bullpen. Plus, Rafael Soriano is one of my favorite pitchers ever and he really deserves a ring.
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 24, 2014 18:05:17 GMT -5
Rafael Soriano would have been a fantastic starter. It's a real shame that he got pigeonholed as a reliever.
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Post by charliezink16 on Aug 26, 2014 8:33:27 GMT -5
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Post by mgoetze on Aug 27, 2014 7:55:31 GMT -5
The excellent performance of Jack Z has been rewarded with a contract extension.
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Post by rangoon82 on Aug 27, 2014 11:51:51 GMT -5
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 28, 2014 0:15:07 GMT -5
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 28, 2014 9:47:41 GMT -5
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 28, 2014 22:26:39 GMT -5
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 29, 2014 11:25:52 GMT -5
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Post by redsox4242 on Aug 29, 2014 23:43:43 GMT -5
In other news Grady Sizemore drops a pop up with the bases loaded against the Mets tonight, Phillies lose. poor Grady lol.
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Post by adiospaydro2005 on Aug 30, 2014 6:53:53 GMT -5
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Post by chavopepe2 on Aug 30, 2014 8:03:03 GMT -5
His bat speed is a thing of beauty. Just absolutely crushed those balls.
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Post by jmei on Aug 30, 2014 8:37:27 GMT -5
The key question for the Cubs: is 2015 too soon to start acquiring expensive/aging pitchers? On one hand, based on pythagorean record-type estimates, the Cubs are already a .500 team, and most of their elite prospects are or will be MLB ready by next spring. Their revenues/market should be able to support significantly more spending, and this year is a banner crop for elite pitchers. The natives are also getting slightly restless, and a big signing that signifies a return to contention would sell tickets/ads. On the other hand, their young players will almost certainly deal with significant growing pains (especially guys like Baez with significant plate discipline issues), and the 2016 free agent crop tentatively looks like a pretty stellar one as well for starting pitching (with guys like Price, Samardzija, Zimmermann, Cueto, Latos, Fister, Iwakuma, Porcello, Leake, Medlen, Gallardo, Kennedy, etc.; even though some of those guys will re-sign before FA, there's still a ton of elite options). They could keep their powder dry a year and wait a year before starting to sign top-end pitching, waiting until they're closer to the projected peak of their position-player guys. I think they'll explore the market this year and potentially pounce on a guy who comes at a reasonable price, but I doubt they'll set the market on Scherzer or Lester. They can afford to be patient and try to get the right guys on the right contracts. If 2015 is to be the year they decide to totally go for it, it seems like they would have been a little less gung-ho about a Samardzija trade.
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Post by marrcus on Aug 31, 2014 0:31:30 GMT -5
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 31, 2014 11:33:25 GMT -5
Fangraphs valuation: $20.7 million.
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Post by Don Caballero on Aug 31, 2014 11:53:17 GMT -5
Fangraphs valuation: $20.7 million. The main concern with him for me is his mediocre defense in center thus far, which means he could be moved to a corner as he ages. This is year one of a long contract and he just barely justified the money he got through it. How does that bode for the next few seasons?
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