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Buy, Sell, or Wait? (aka the Fire Sale Game Thread)
ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,946
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 19, 2014 11:19:23 GMT -5
recall Wright instead of Webster or Workman? I knew that would open an eye or two. Wright has clearly been the PawSox' best pitcher. He's 9th in the IL in FIP (minimum 60 IP), 2nd in BABIP (mostly skill for knuckleballers), and 2nd in ERA. In fact, he ranks 1st of 131 AAA pitchers in TAv allowed (3rd after adjusting for opponents). He also has the skill set that arguably translates best from AAA to MLB.
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Post by grandsalami on Jul 19, 2014 11:43:28 GMT -5
@jonmorosi: Matt Kemp is not in the Dodgers' starting lineup today. Andre Ethier isn't either.
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Post by bjb406 on Jul 19, 2014 14:37:44 GMT -5
I can't think of a single rational reason why the red sox would have interest in Cliff Lee. The only reason they might not resign Lester is because they are overcrowded at the position. If you can clear the space and can justify a big salary for a pitcher you give it to Lester. End of story. You wouldn't get rid of Lester and trade for the guy who is making even more money.
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Post by klostrophobic on Jul 19, 2014 17:53:01 GMT -5
I can't think of a single rational reason why the red sox would have interest in Cliff Lee. The only reason they might not resign Lester is because they are overcrowded at the position. If you can clear the space and can justify a big salary for a pitcher you give it to Lester. End of story. You wouldn't get rid of Lester and trade for the guy who is making even more money. Well, they could trade for Lee and then trade Lester, in some OOTP-like fantasy world. Or keep both and go into next year with Lee-Lester-Buchholz-Lackey and one of DeLaRosa/Webster/Wright/Barnes/Ranaudo (whoever isnt traded to acquire Lee). Of course then you'd have 65-70 million tied up in the rotation. But that's not far more than this year.
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Post by jdb on Jul 19, 2014 18:31:26 GMT -5
It would be great to get an OF prospect from Pitts. We'll see what these next 12 games bring leading up to the deadline but if we're sellers (Not Peavy type trades more Koji/Lackey) we could match up with them.
Rosenthall tweet
#Pirates, #Royals among teams that scouted #Padres’ Kennedy last night. Pirates looking for SP and RP. Royals keeping all options open.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Jul 19, 2014 21:28:54 GMT -5
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Post by redsox4242 on Jul 19, 2014 23:29:35 GMT -5
I wouldn't give up Miller for Nothing unless you get 2 number 1 prospects, Andrew is a valuable piece in our bullpen. Its hard to find a dominant Lefty these days and we have one, why give it up?
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cdj
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Posts: 14,314
Member is Online
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Post by cdj on Jul 20, 2014 1:09:40 GMT -5
My old roommate is a Pirates fan and I asked him what he'd give for Uehara. He had texted me earlier in the day saying he thinks they are gonna need to pick up a reliever.
He said Bell+
Pretty cool.
I'd go Miller for Bell.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Jul 20, 2014 5:03:57 GMT -5
We only have a few more months of control over Miller. Why not get something for him?
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Post by jdb on Jul 20, 2014 8:53:24 GMT -5
I'd trade Miller if we don't gain ground in the next 11 games. He's the type that probably goes for the biggest payday bc he's only made $10 million and I don't blame him. It's easier to leave money on the table if your in Lester's situation. I definitely want Miller on the team in 2015 though.
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Post by adiospaydro2005 on Jul 20, 2014 9:08:09 GMT -5
This post AJ streak of winning 6 out of 7 is not very impressive when you see that it has cone set the expense of the White Sox, Astros and Royals. They play 7 games against the Blue Jays and 3 against the Rays between now and July 31. If the Red Sox don't start selling of guys like Lester, Miller, Gomes, etc between now and July 31 it would be just compounding the mistakes they already made so far this year as their chances of making the playoffs is less than 4% according to Baseball Prospectus. www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/
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Post by sibbysisti on Jul 20, 2014 9:46:46 GMT -5
I believe the acquisition of Verdugo was motivated by the uncertainty of retaining Miller. They are similar pitchers (tall, hard throwing southpaws), though Ryan's experience has mostly been as a SP and Miller is established in the pen.
Tommy Layne is another possible LOOGY already in the system.
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Post by sarasoxer on Jul 20, 2014 10:10:05 GMT -5
We only have a few more months of control over Miller. Why not get something for him? Miller probably has the most value of those we could trade but I would be against it to the hilt. This guy has morphed into a weapon. Whether he could be a closer is in doubt as I think nerves come more into play. But damn....a still young, tall lefty with pop, good breaking stuff and much improved control??? Re-sign the guy and give him his due! As much as I love Koji, he is 39. He is the perfect guy to utilize in a trade to a contender currently without his lights-out type of performance. I love the way that we are bouncing back, reminiscent of 2013, but realistically look at our woeful offensive production. I guess the team could hit .280 the rest of the year but how likely is it....in the Year of the Pitcher? Look to the long haul for once, please. Stay with our young guys a while longer and see what happens. WMB's jury is still out and the other youngsters need a little time.
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Post by sammo420 on Jul 20, 2014 11:15:11 GMT -5
I wouldn't give up Miller for Nothing unless you get 2 number 1 prospects, Andrew is a valuable piece in our bullpen. Its hard to find a dominant Lefty these days and we have one, why give it up? How confident are you in him continuing to pitch this well? More than I am.
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,445
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Post by radiohix on Jul 20, 2014 12:00:11 GMT -5
I wouldn't give up Miller for Nothing unless you get 2 number 1 prospects, Andrew is a valuable piece in our bullpen. Its hard to find a dominant Lefty these days and we have one, why give it up? How is that even possible? 1A and 1B? Beside, he's a RELIEVER and a half year rent (30 IP maximum), nobody will give you a top 5 prospect for that!
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Post by grandsalami on Jul 20, 2014 12:04:19 GMT -5
Nick Cafardo ?@nickcafardo 2m
Koji Uehara in great demand but Red Sox would like to hold on to him
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Post by sammo420 on Jul 20, 2014 12:53:18 GMT -5
Nick Cafardo ?@nickcafardo 2m Koji Uehara in great demand but Red Sox would like to hold on to himThat better be posturing by Ben.
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Post by redsox4242 on Jul 20, 2014 13:29:43 GMT -5
If we get an offer for someones number one prospect in their organization, i would take it. Koji is going to be 40 years old next year, you take the deal.
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Post by sammo420 on Jul 20, 2014 13:47:05 GMT -5
If we get an offer for someones number one prospect in their organization, i would take it. Koji is going to be 40 years old next year, you take the deal. Something to keep in mind when using the Angels trade to set the bar is that there farm system was absolutely horrible before the trade.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 20, 2014 14:02:07 GMT -5
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jul 20, 2014 14:39:44 GMT -5
If you took the remaining contract for Hammels, and offered it to James Shields this winter, you probably get him. 2 years older but costs only a 1st/2nd round pick - I'd rather go for Shields; as I believe they're comparable. Over past 3.5 years: 15.7 fWAR for Hammels 14.7 fWAR for Shields
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Jul 20, 2014 15:33:24 GMT -5
This post AJ streak of winning 6 out of 7 is not very impressive when you see that it has cone set the expense of the White Sox, Astros and Royals. They play 7 games against the Blue Jays and 3 against the Rays between now and July 31. If the Red Sox don't start selling of guys like Lester, Miller, Gomes, etc between now and July 31 it would be just compounding the mistakes they already made so far this year as their chances of making the playoffs is less than 4% according to Baseball Prospectus. www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/ Not sure why this is relevant...they've lost many game/series against terrible teams all year. I like the fact that the next seven games are against those teams...a good run could mean all the difference in the world. For the record, I am still in buyers mode...no reason to sell until last minute...when other teams are more desperate.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,946
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 21, 2014 5:46:40 GMT -5
I think this is as good a place as any to put this observation ...
What's up with Midddlebrooks? His rehab will eventually end, which leaves them with the following options:
-- Trade him at his lowest possible value. -- Option Bogaerts. -- Trade Gomes. The fact that they changed their mind on their plan to have WMB take some reps in LF indicates that this has been taken off the table, though. -- Trade Drew and move Xander back to SS. I don't think there's any evidence that they've given up on X as a SS or decided he's a 3B, since no one thought that at the time of the Drew signing, and he's been one of the worst players in baseball, on both sides of the ball, subsequently. All that's been happening is that Farrell decided that he didn't want Xander bouncing between SS and 3B.
-- Trade Carp. This seems likeliest, but it would be a shame, because WMB would have no role except for spelling Xander maybe once per week at most, and as a pinch-hitter for Drew in games where Gomes has already hit for Bradley. Which means they'd learn nothing further about him, and do nothing to increase his trade value.
Furthermore, if they do go into tank mode, it would have been great to get Carp regular PT and find out if last year was a fluke or not. I'd hate to deal him and have some other team discover that it wasn't.
In contrast, if you trade Drew, WMB would be at 3B at least three times per week. Essentially, Drew's PT would go to him and Nava. I think that helps the offense more than it hurts the defense (especially considering that Xander has actually played much worse at 3B than at SS). So I'd love to see this happen.
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Post by sarasoxer on Jul 21, 2014 6:54:41 GMT -5
I think this is as good a place as any to put this observation ... What's up with Midddlebrooks? His rehab will eventually end, which leaves them with the following options: -- Trade him at his lowest possible value. -- Option Bogaerts. -- Trade Gomes. The fact that they changed their mind on their plan to have WMB take some reps in LF indicates that this has been taken off the table, though. -- Trade Drew and move Xander back to SS. I don't think there's any evidence that they've given up on X as a SS or decided he's a 3B, since no one thought that at the time of the Drew signing, and he's been one of the worst players in baseball, on both sides of the ball, subsequently. All that's been happening is that Farrell decided that he didn't want Xander bouncing between SS and 3B. -- Trade Carp. This seems likeliest, but it would be a shame, because WMB would have no role except for spelling Xander maybe once per week at most, and as a pinch-hitter for Drew in games where Gomes has already hit for Bradley. Which means they'd learn nothing further about him, and do nothing to increase his trade value. Furthermore, if they do go into tank mode, it would have been great to get Carp regular PT and find out if last year was a fluke or not. I'd hate to deal him and have some other team discover that it wasn't. In contrast, if you trade Drew, WMB would be at 3B at least three times per week. Essentially, Drew's PT would go to him and Nava. I think that helps the offense more than it hurts the defense (especially considering that Xander has actually played much worse at 3B than at SS). So I'd love to see this happen. I don't think that the Sox, now mentally and psychologically rejuvenated, are going to tank. Whether it was cutting AJ as a negative member or the wake-up call it represented...we are now officially out of that mode for the moment at least. I too think that Carp will be sacrificed which is unfair to him...as was last year's treatment. I would much rather loosen the logjam by trading Drew for the reasons you advance, but wonder if he too is viewed as "glue".
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Post by jmei on Jul 21, 2014 7:19:28 GMT -5
They could just option Middlebrooks to Pawtucket, where he'd have plenty of playing time now that Cecchini is playing LF. If they fell out of the race by August, they could then waiver-trade Drew and bring Middlebrooks back.
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