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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 13, 2015 11:45:59 GMT -5
But these likely number 3s do develop into top guys, plus the way to avoid organizational dips is to continue to add good players. They drafted raw with Ball last year so you can question if it's smart to do it again considering the next two years will have less international talent and lower round picks. These drafts are for 4-5 years from now not where the system is today. If you treat it as such you can get in trouble.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Mar 16, 2015 7:24:57 GMT -5
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Post by chavopepe2 on Mar 16, 2015 9:17:23 GMT -5
He has to have just forgotten about Johnson.
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 16, 2015 9:19:02 GMT -5
He has to have just forgotten about Johnson. Yeah that doesn't make sense. He answered me and said he should be listed in others. He has him as a B-.
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Post by jrffam05 on Mar 16, 2015 9:29:25 GMT -5
Finally Bryant takes his rightful spot at #1 on a quality ranking.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Mar 16, 2015 9:43:13 GMT -5
HOT TAKE: Bryant is overrated.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Mar 16, 2015 9:51:13 GMT -5
I know he strikes out a lot but he has the power and walks enough to make it work. It's not like Baez where I genuenly question wether he will make enough contact for his power to even matter. Of the Cubs young hitter I think Soler will end up being the best, while Russell prolly ends up having the best all around impact.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Mar 16, 2015 10:07:03 GMT -5
Yeah, I just don't know how I feel about rating a guy as the #1 prospect in baseball when there's a strong chance he's going to turn into Chris Carter. BP has him fifth behind Buxton, Russell, Correa and Lindor ahead of him and that's much more to my liking. It's just so much easier for a guy who's all power to fail compared to guys who have good hit tools and significant defensive value.
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Post by jrffam05 on Mar 16, 2015 10:14:39 GMT -5
All he has done is hit since being drafted. OPS over 1.000 in any relevant sample size. He may not have the absolute 5 tool package of a Buxton, but he played as well as somebody could play in the highest level of the minors with consistency. He earned the top spot, as arbitrary as it may be.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,825
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Post by nomar on Mar 16, 2015 10:56:45 GMT -5
Yeah, I just don't know how I feel about rating a guy as the #1 prospect in baseball when there's a strong chance he's going to turn into Chris Carter. BP has him fifth behind Buxton, Russell, Correa and Lindor ahead of him and that's much more to my liking. It's just so much easier for a guy who's all power to fail compared to guys who have good hit tools and significant defensive value. I see what you mean, but he'll bring more defensive value than Carter and has a much better pedigree. He could be a similar hitter to Stanton too (although he has a little more swing and miss). I think considering the injuries to Buxton and Correa, it's justifiable to have him at 1. I would rather have him than Lindor personally.
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 16, 2015 14:10:40 GMT -5
Not sure what the deal is here, but this top 30 list is supposed to be out and shows up blank for me. Can anyone see it? The rest of the AL East except for the Blue Jays are there. m.mlb.com/prospects/2015?list=bosTeam Top 30 Prospects schedule: Mon., March 9 - NL East (minus any teams in the Top 10) Tue., March 10 - AL East (minus any teams in the Top 10) Wed., March 11 - NL Central (minus any teams in the Top 10) Thu., March 12 - AL Central (minus any teams in the Top 10) Fri., March 13 - NL West (minus any teams in the Top 10) Mon., March 16 - AL West (minus any teams in the Top 10) Tue., March 17 - Counting down the Top 10 farm systems - Nos. 9 & 10 Wed., March 18 - Counting down the Top 10 farm systems - Nos. 7 & 8 Thu., March 19 - Counting down the Top 10 farm systems - Nos. 4, 5 & 6 Fri., March 20 - Counting down the Top 10 farm systems - Nos. 1, 2 & 3 Edit, nevermind. It'll probably be revealed Friday. I get it now.
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Post by telson13 on Mar 16, 2015 20:38:43 GMT -5
I'd never thought of it this way, but you're absolutely right. I'd have someone like Funkhouser between Cecchini and Kopech, putting him #11 on a list that includes Moncada. That's pretty amazing thought. We've been spoiled for a few years now. Ball only cracked the top 10 briefly at the end of 2013. Imagine if he pulls an Owens at Salem? But that's a raw high school pitcher, which we're probably not taking this time. I know people are down on Ball because he got knocked around the first half last year, and didn't miss many bats in the second despite the overall improvement, but I'm holding out hope. He's pretty new to pitching, and I have to believe that his command and secondary development will lead to a higher Sw%. He's still got some velo projection and plenty of development time, so maybe he does make an Owens-like jump. Owens always had the great change, and FB deception, which really helped his K rate. The nice thing about the stacked lower levels in terms of "project" pitchers is that there's enough depth that they could take an Aiken or Allard and not miss a beat if they develop slowly (or not at all)...though I agree that they will prob shoot for a college So/Jr. The AAA depth is such that they're going to be working in 2-3 guys over the next year anyway. If Porcello pitches well and signs an extension, with Miley and Kelly and the Buchholz option, they've got two years before they need internal options to knock on the door again. It'll be interesting to see what July brings...could be a huge top-10 shakeup this summer with so many guys on the cusp, and so many young, talented players in the 10-20 range.
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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 18, 2015 7:37:03 GMT -5
I'm not down on Ball to be honest. I'm Actually pretty bullish on him this season, but with the way my feeling are going lately I'm sure he will get cut due to nonperformance by May.
It's a big year for him but he looked good to end last season.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Mar 21, 2015 4:15:52 GMT -5
MLB rankings are finally out:
1. Moncada 2. Swihart 3. Owens 4. Rodriguez 5. Devers 6. Margot 7. Johnson 8. Cecchini 9. Barnes 10. Marrero 11. Chavis 12. Ball 13. Kopech 14. Coyle 15. Travis 16. Guerra 17. Rijo 18. Escobar 19. Ramos 20. Stankiewicz 21. Shaw 22. Brentz 23. Longhi 24. Cosart 25. Asuaje 26. Espinoza 27. Mercedez 28. Wright 29. Doubon 30. Aybar
Complements to the chefs. In general, not much I expect the prospect watchers to disagree about here.
Final Top 100
9 Moncada 19 Swihart 20 Owens 90 Rodriguez 97 Devers 100 Margot
Two clusters with a big gap between Owens and Rodriguez.
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Post by jmei on Mar 21, 2015 10:20:25 GMT -5
Here are how the various national outfits have ranked the Red Sox guys this offseason on top 100s, with only the five guys ranked on every list included:
| Law
| BP
| Fangraphs | BA | Sickels | MLB.com
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| Average
| Swihart | 10 | 17 | 9 | 17 | 20 | 19 |
| 15
| Owens
| 20 | 46 | 33 | 44 | 28 | 20 |
| 32
| Rodriguez | 29 | 65 | 23 | 59
| 61 | 90 |
| 55
| Margot | 70 | 61
| 35 | 72 | 102 | 100 |
| 73
| Devers
| 55
| 90
| 48
| 99
| 64
| 97
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| 76
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Post by wcsoxfan on Mar 21, 2015 11:09:08 GMT -5
Here are how the various national outfits have ranked the Red Sox guys this offseason on top 100s, with only the five guys ranked on every list included:
| Law
| BP
| Fangraphs | BA | Sickels | MLB.com
|
| Average
| Swihart | 10 | 17 | 9 | 17 | 20 | 19 |
| 15
| Owens
| 20 | 46 | 33 | 44 | 28 | 20 |
| 32
| Rodriguez | 29 | 65 | 23 | 59
| 61 | 90 |
| 55
| Margot | 70 | 61
| 35 | 72 | 102 | 100 |
| 73
| Devers
| 55
| 90
| 48
| 99
| 64
| 97
|
| 76
|
Thanks Jmei, I wonder if there is any 'group think' going on here. BP seems similar to BA, Law seems similar to Fangraphs and Sickels seems similar to MLB.com. I don't know about the other relationships, but Kiley McDaniel at Fangraphs has mentioned his friendship with Law on several occasions. Perhaps there are just similar ways of thinking about prospects? Or maybe these groups have the same 'sources' they are using to comprise these lists...Just something to consider.
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Post by Smittyw on Mar 21, 2015 11:11:02 GMT -5
I know Moncada came in at #10 in BA's updated list and #9 for MLB.com, and Sickels put him at 16. Do we know if any of the others have gone back to give him a definitive ranking?
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Post by wcsoxfan on Mar 21, 2015 11:28:21 GMT -5
I know Moncada came in at #10 in BA's updated list and #9 for MLB.com, and Sickels put him at 16. Do we know if any of the others have gone back to give him a definitive ranking? Kiley at Fangraphs said he's be '5-12' before he signed. But I don't think he has officially ranked him yet. Thanks Ethan - I stand corrected.
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Post by ethanbein on Mar 21, 2015 12:15:23 GMT -5
I know Moncada came in at #10 in BA's updated list and #9 for MLB.com, and Sickels put him at 16. Do we know if any of the others have gone back to give him a definitive ranking? Kiley at Fangraphs said he's be '5-12' before he signed. But I don't think he has officially ranked him yet. Kiley said he would have had him 8th.
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Post by pedrosdaddy on Mar 26, 2015 7:54:13 GMT -5
Who was the number 9 ranked prospect before the list was updated to include moncada? I see all the other rankings (1-10) pre-moncada but nobody at number 9. Did they graduate?
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Mar 26, 2015 8:35:46 GMT -5
Who was the number 9 ranked prospect before the list was updated to include moncada? I see all the other rankings (1-10) pre-moncada but nobody at number 9. Did they graduate? If you are referring to MLB's list, this was not an update, it was the first listing for this year. Previous lists were last year's rankings.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Mar 26, 2015 9:02:41 GMT -5
Who was the number 9 ranked prospect before the list was updated to include moncada? I see all the other rankings (1-10) pre-moncada but nobody at number 9. Did they graduate? If you are referring to MLB's list, this was not an update, it was the first listing for this year. Previous lists were last year's rankings. I think he is referring to this site's rankings.....
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dd
Veteran
Posts: 979
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Post by dd on Mar 26, 2015 9:05:26 GMT -5
Cecchini was #9 last week.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 26, 2015 9:11:46 GMT -5
Ah, I understand the confusion.
The number in parentheses is the end-of-year rankings on September 26, not last week's rankings.
Number 9 was Anthony Ranaudo.
By the way, we'll probably have a more proper announcement about this and a few more new things later, but the site rankings will be updated monthly during the season this year, rather than weekly (with the exception of adding or subtracting guys when they come and go).
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Post by telson13 on Mar 28, 2015 1:44:30 GMT -5
MLB rankings are finally out: 1. Moncada 2. Swihart 3. Owens 4. Rodriguez 5. Devers 6. Margot 7. Johnson 8. Cecchini 9. Barnes 10. Marrero 11. Chavis 12. Ball 13. Kopech 14. Coyle 15. Travis 16. Guerra 17. Rijo 18. Escobar 19. Ramos 20. Stankiewicz 21. Shaw 22. Brentz 23. Longhi 24. Cosart 25. Asuaje 26. Espinoza 27. Mercedez 28. Wright 29. Doubon 30. Aybar Complements to the chefs. In general, not much I expect the prospect watchers to disagree about here. Final Top 100 9 Moncada 19 Swihart 20 Owens 90 Rodriguez 97 Devers 100 Margot Two clusters with a big gap between Owens and Rodriguez. I agree in principle on the Sox's ranking order, but the drop-off from Owens to Rodriguez baffles me. Frankly, I prefer Rodriguez slightly, just because I'm concerned with Owens's tendency this spring to get his FB too meaty to RHs who lay off the CH and CB. You can't teach 97. Of course, command is just as important, but Rodriguez has made some leaps there too.
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