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4/13-4/15 Red Sox vs. Nationals Series Thread
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Post by grandsalami on Apr 15, 2015 15:22:00 GMT -5
@drewsilv: Allen Craig has two RBI in 121 plate appearances with the Red Sox.
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Post by mgoetze on Apr 15, 2015 15:31:48 GMT -5
@drewsilv: Allen Craig has two RBI in 121 plate appearances with the Red Sox. Welp, guess we can't trade him to the Phillies or D-Bags then.
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Post by jrffam05 on Apr 15, 2015 15:35:15 GMT -5
Well that was a pretty impressive debut for Martin. 5 strikeouts over 2 innings.
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Post by mgoetze on Apr 15, 2015 15:38:46 GMT -5
Can we please have a pinch hitter for the catcher just this one time?
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Post by okin15 on Apr 15, 2015 15:51:52 GMT -5
I gotta say, Brock Holt has been crazy-impressive offensively so far. Maybe they ought to try him on the mound. Seriously though, gotta find a way to keep him in the lineup 3-5 days a week.
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Post by Guidas on Apr 15, 2015 15:56:57 GMT -5
Well, stole one last night so probably too much to ask to do it again when our pitcher (again) spots a team 6 runs.
Let's hope the starters are better against Baltimore.
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Apr 15, 2015 15:58:31 GMT -5
The most perplexing player is Victorino. He is a fabulous fielder, as demonstrated once again today, but he isn't hitting. He's not even hitting the ball hard.
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Post by Guidas on Apr 15, 2015 16:07:07 GMT -5
The most perplexing player is Victorino. He is a fabulous fielder, as demonstrated once again today, but he isn't hitting. He's not even hitting the ball hard. That was JBJ last year. I tend to like to give a guy 100 PAs before I start to real get going on their approach at the plate but Victorino did not look like he could sustain being anything more than a platoon OF vs lefties even going back to 2013 when he stopped switch hitting (or going back to 2011-2012 when he was still switch hitting), so it may be too much to ask for him to do any more than that. He was a gift in 2013, but it remains to be seen if that was a recent outlier year.
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Post by mgoetze on Apr 15, 2015 16:21:32 GMT -5
I think they want Craig to be Carp 2.0 to rebuild his value. Tough day for a guy fighting for playing time. Mike Carp, incidentally, was with the Nats in spring training, and opted out after he didn't make the roster. Which is strange, he would have fit right in defensively.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Apr 15, 2015 16:49:44 GMT -5
Carp was very good in that role.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 15, 2015 16:52:06 GMT -5
There are worse examples of blackouts. The rules are insane and most people don't know how insane they are. If you live in Hawaii, you can't watch any Padres, Dodgers, Angels, Giants or Mariners games. I think if you live somewhere in Alabama, you can't watch Cincinati Reds games. This is absurd. If I am paying for MLB premium then I should be able to get anything they broadcast. Hell, MASN can play their commercials during the breaks or whatever, but this is ridiculous. Anyone know Rob Manfred? I need to talk with him (also about the DH in both leagues and RoboUmps behind the plate, but mostly this). There is some class action lawsuit that is close to being heard that could change all of the blackout rules for the better and maybe get rid of them. The judge already threw out the "it's our anti-trust exemption" motion.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Apr 15, 2015 21:11:38 GMT -5
The most perplexing player is Victorino. He is a fabulous fielder, as demonstrated once again today, but he isn't hitting. He's not even hitting the ball hard. That was JBJ last year. I tend to like to give a guy 100 PAs before I start to real get going on their approach at the plate but Victorino did not look like he could sustain being anything more than a platoon OF vs lefties even going back to 2013 when he stopped switch hitting (or going back to 2011-2012 when he was still switch hitting), so it may be too much to ask for him to do any more than that. He was a gift in 2013, but it remains to be seen if that was a recent outlier year. Kind of a stretch to compare someone with zero experience that's struggling at the plate to someone who has had five thousand at bats eh? If Victorino is athletic enough to make the plays he did today. He's athletic enough to come around offensively. Platoon in 2013? 801 OPS. Are you for real??
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Post by Guidas on Apr 15, 2015 22:00:10 GMT -5
I said 2013 was a gift and an outlier year for Victorino. But even then as a RH vs RHP his BABIP was .348, likely an unsustainable number given the corresponding nearly 22% K rate.
In 2010 his OBP as LH vs RHP was .305; in 2011 his OBP as a LH vs RHP rose slightly to .333 - not bad but nowhere near what it was as RH vs LHP (.424). But in 2012 his performance vs RHP as LH dropped angain to an OBP of .296. My point being that he was in decline vs RHP even batting left handed vs RHP, something he had far more PAs doing in his career than RH vs RHP.
And I also said I's give him 100 PAs this year before making an initial evaluation. I am forever grateful for 2013 but I've not been optimistic about his performance sonce then and even mentioned early last year before play began that I felt he was so brittle it may be wise to platoon or trade him.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Apr 15, 2015 22:08:53 GMT -5
I said 2013 was a gift and an outlier year for Victorino. But even then as a RH vs RHP his BABIP was .348, likely an unsustainable number given the corresponding nearly 22% K rate. In 2010 his OBP as LH vs RHP was .305; in 2011 his OBP as a LH vs RHP rose slightly to .333 - not bad but nowhere near what it was as RH vs LHP (.424). But in 2012 his performance vs RHP as LH dropped angain to an OBP of .296. My point being that he was in decline vs RHP even batting left handed vs RHP, something he had far more PAs doing in his career than RH vs RHP. And I also said I's give him 100 PAs this year before making an initial evaluation. I am forever grateful for 2013 but I've not been optimistic about his performance sonce then and even mentioned early last year before play began that I felt he was so brittle it may be wise to platoon or trade him. IShane's career OPS is 770. Again, outlier? He was injured and had bleeping back surgery. Nobody was going to trade for him. Quit pretending you're smarter than professional GM's. You'd have traded him...LOL..Gimme a break
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Post by Oregon Norm on Apr 15, 2015 22:37:54 GMT -5
I guess this is what an excess of outfielders looks like! Farrell said he would play him and he is, though not every day. So the team is trying to get a slow fix on the skills, and how much work he can handle. It's still really early...
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Post by brianthetaoist on Apr 16, 2015 10:31:43 GMT -5
Until Castillo stays healthy for a while, I don't know that there's an excess of outfielders right now. You can't say that Castillo is injury-prone; it's just small sample bad luck at this point, and the guy did go a couple years without playing. But so far, he's gotten hurt just enough that you can't say that he isn't, either. And let's let JBJ hit AAA pitching for more than a couple weeks before we get convinced he's now a major-league caliber hitter.
I was annoyed about letting Victorino start the season in RF because I thought he was too degraded physically, but, even though nothing he's done has changed my mind about him, it was the right call. There are still too many questions about the Sox outfielders to start jettisoning any of them.
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Post by mgoetze on Apr 16, 2015 10:45:36 GMT -5
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Apr 16, 2015 11:34:06 GMT -5
I think this is the same treatment that Takashi Saito received prior to pitching very well for the Red Sox in 2009. He went on to have two more good years before his career ended after a poor season in 2012. But he was 42 years old by then.
At the time it was an experimental treatment. I think it has been used several times since then, but not always successfully.
If it doesn't work, TJ surgery is the next step.
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Post by jmei on Apr 16, 2015 11:43:31 GMT -5
I said 2013 was a gift and an outlier year for Victorino. But even then as a RH vs RHP his BABIP was .348, likely an unsustainable number given the corresponding nearly 22% K rate. In 2010 his OBP as LH vs RHP was .305; in 2011 his OBP as a LH vs RHP rose slightly to .333 - not bad but nowhere near what it was as RH vs LHP (.424). But in 2012 his performance vs RHP as LH dropped angain to an OBP of .296. My point being that he was in decline vs RHP even batting left handed vs RHP, something he had far more PAs doing in his career than RH vs RHP. And I also said I's give him 100 PAs this year before making an initial evaluation. I am forever grateful for 2013 but I've not been optimistic about his performance sonce then and even mentioned early last year before play began that I felt he was so brittle it may be wise to platoon or trade him. Victorino has always been a worse hitter versus RHP and will likely continue to be, but he's not necessarily worthless versus RHP, either. He's racked up a combined 249 PAs hitting righty vs. RHP, which, while not a large sample, is probably enough to start drawing some limited conclusions. Here is how he's looked over those plate appearances: .258/.323/.422 (106 wRC+), 3.6% BB, 17.7% K, .164 ISO, .287 BABIP Even ignoring the 2013 HBPs that have elevated his OBP (which I'm not sure you can do, by the way; HBPs are more stable year-to-year than BABIP, doubles/triples rate, batting average, and OBP), he's still been an OK hitter hitting righty vs. RHP. The low walk rate is not ideal, but he's not striking out much and hitting for decent power. If he's even a true-talent 95 wRC+ guy versus RHP, when you take into account his defense and baserunning, that's something like a slightly below-average right fielder (think Nori Aoki, Dustin Ackley, etc). That's certainly very playable, and might even be better than what a healthy Castillo can give us versus RHP. Of course, it's probably worse than what Nava can give us versus RHP, but Victorino is going to need lots of days off (he's started 7 of 11 games so far), which means Nava will get a significant chunk of the playing time versus RHP. Maybe Nava should get a little more PT versus RHP and make Victorino a true short-end-of-a-platoon, but the gap between the two is not big enough that I'm too upset about it.
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Post by Guidas on Apr 16, 2015 11:54:05 GMT -5
I said 2013 was a gift and an outlier year for Victorino. But even then as a RH vs RHP his BABIP was .348, likely an unsustainable number given the corresponding nearly 22% K rate. In 2010 his OBP as LH vs RHP was .305; in 2011 his OBP as a LH vs RHP rose slightly to .333 - not bad but nowhere near what it was as RH vs LHP (.424). But in 2012 his performance vs RHP as LH dropped angain to an OBP of .296. My point being that he was in decline vs RHP even batting left handed vs RHP, something he had far more PAs doing in his career than RH vs RHP. And I also said I's give him 100 PAs this year before making an initial evaluation. I am forever grateful for 2013 but I've not been optimistic about his performance sonce then and even mentioned early last year before play began that I felt he was so brittle it may be wise to platoon or trade him. IShane's career OPS is 770. Again, outlier? He was injured and had bleeping back surgery. Nobody was going to trade for him. Quit pretending you're smarter than professional GM's. You'd have traded him...LOL..Gimme a break Well, I never wanted Vitorino in the first place and when he was acquired I lamented that he'd be an albatross over the three years. I was certainly wrong about the first year, and said as much in 2013, but right since then. And yes, I am much smarter than a professional GM, at least the one named Amaro. I think I'm smarter than Brian Cashman, too, but I want him to stay right where he is. But to that point, I all think we play GM here to one level or another and I don't have blind faith in Ben Cherrington, if that's what you mean. In fact, if the Sox fail to make the playoffs this year and I was the owner I'd consider replacing him - also a moot point since I don't own the team and Cherrington's received an extension.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Apr 16, 2015 12:10:01 GMT -5
Exactly. It is still sooo early, and Vic, Craig, Catillo, JBJ, Brentz, even Hanley in LF are still unknowns as a result. Same for Mookie, Nava and Brockstar's SSS. Don't know about you but IMO this process has been as interesting as anything in baseball in a long while. Meanwhile, taking four of six on the road and two of three at home affirms the cliche that it will all work itself out over the next 153 games.
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Post by Guidas on Apr 16, 2015 12:14:57 GMT -5
I said 2013 was a gift and an outlier year for Victorino. But even then as a RH vs RHP his BABIP was .348, likely an unsustainable number given the corresponding nearly 22% K rate. In 2010 his OBP as LH vs RHP was .305; in 2011 his OBP as a LH vs RHP rose slightly to .333 - not bad but nowhere near what it was as RH vs LHP (.424). But in 2012 his performance vs RHP as LH dropped angain to an OBP of .296. My point being that he was in decline vs RHP even batting left handed vs RHP, something he had far more PAs doing in his career than RH vs RHP. And I also said I's give him 100 PAs this year before making an initial evaluation. I am forever grateful for 2013 but I've not been optimistic about his performance sonce then and even mentioned early last year before play began that I felt he was so brittle it may be wise to platoon or trade him. Victorino has always been a worse hitter versus RHP and will likely continue to be, but he's not necessarily worthless versus RHP, either. He's racked up a combined 249 PAs hitting righty vs. RHP, which, while not a large sample, is probably enough to start drawing some limited conclusions. Here is how he's looked over those plate appearances: .258/.323/.422 (106 wRC+), 3.6% BB, 17.7% K, .164 ISO, .287 BABIP Even ignoring the 2013 HBPs that have elevated his OBP (which I'm not sure you can do, by the way; HBPs are more stable year-to-year than BABIP, doubles/triples rate, batting average, and OBP), he's still been an OK hitter hitting righty vs. RHP. The low walk rate is not ideal, but he's not striking out much and hitting for decent power. If he's even a true-talent 95 wRC+ guy versus RHP, when you take into account his defense and baserunning, that's something like a slightly below-average right fielder (think Nori Aoki, Dustin Ackley, etc). That's certainly very playable, and might even be better than what a healthy Castillo can give us versus RHP. Of course, it's probably worse than what Nava can give us versus RHP, but Victorino is going to need lots of days off (he's started 7 of 11 games so far), which means Nava will get a significant chunk of the playing time versus RHP. Maybe Nava should get a little more PT versus RHP and make Victorino a true short-end-of-a-platoon, but the gap between the two is not big enough that I'm too upset about it. Which was basically my point when they acquired him for 3 x $13M - I believed it was an overpay, esp with Nava offering a decent platoon partner that and I felt he was in decline. His defense is plus in RF, which definitely has value, and who knows, he may hit enough to justify starting him 4 times a week. But I still think he's brittle and won't play more than 90 games this year, either because they are sitting him to keep him healthy, or because he's broken down.
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Post by mgoetze on Apr 16, 2015 12:22:48 GMT -5
He's racked up a combined 249 PAs hitting righty vs. RHP, which, while not a large sample, is probably enough to start drawing some limited conclusions. Well, some very limited conclusions. Even without Victorino's special circumstances, you would usually want more PAs than that to start drawing conclusions about a RHH's platoon splits. www.fangraphs.com/blogs/estimating-hitter-platoon-skill/
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Post by jmei on Apr 16, 2015 12:39:48 GMT -5
Victorino has always been a worse hitter versus RHP and will likely continue to be, but he's not necessarily worthless versus RHP, either. He's racked up a combined 249 PAs hitting righty vs. RHP, which, while not a large sample, is probably enough to start drawing some limited conclusions. Here is how he's looked over those plate appearances: .258/.323/.422 (106 wRC+), 3.6% BB, 17.7% K, .164 ISO, .287 BABIP Even ignoring the 2013 HBPs that have elevated his OBP (which I'm not sure you can do, by the way; HBPs are more stable year-to-year than BABIP, doubles/triples rate, batting average, and OBP), he's still been an OK hitter hitting righty vs. RHP. The low walk rate is not ideal, but he's not striking out much and hitting for decent power. If he's even a true-talent 95 wRC+ guy versus RHP, when you take into account his defense and baserunning, that's something like a slightly below-average right fielder (think Nori Aoki, Dustin Ackley, etc). That's certainly very playable, and might even be better than what a healthy Castillo can give us versus RHP. Of course, it's probably worse than what Nava can give us versus RHP, but Victorino is going to need lots of days off (he's started 7 of 11 games so far), which means Nava will get a significant chunk of the playing time versus RHP. Maybe Nava should get a little more PT versus RHP and make Victorino a true short-end-of-a-platoon, but the gap between the two is not big enough that I'm too upset about it. Which was basically my point when they acquired him for 3 x $13M - I believed it was an overpay, esp with Nava offering a decent platoon partner that and I felt he was in decline. His defense is plus in RF, which definitely has value, and who knows, he may hit enough to justify starting him 4 times a week. But I still think he's brittle and won't play more than 90 games this year, either because they are sitting him to keep him healthy, or because he's broken down. Now that he's 34 and coming off serious back and hamstring injuries, it will certainly be a toss-up how many games he can stay healthy for, but even in 100ish games, there's a decent shot he can rack up the 1.7-ish wins it would take to justify his $13m salary in 2015 based on this year's $/WAR going rate. That's notwithstanding the fact that, just based off the six wins he racked up in 2013, he's basically already earned every penny of his total contract.
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Post by Guidas on Apr 16, 2015 12:50:33 GMT -5
To be clear, I think we'd all agree he earned the contract when they beat St. Louis in the WS.
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