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4/21-4/23 Red Sox @ Rays Series Thread
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Post by jmei on Apr 23, 2015 9:10:34 GMT -5
On the other hand, Joe Kelly has been averaging more than one K per inning so far this year. ...in all of two starts, which is just about a meaningless sample. There's also the times-through-the-order-effect to think about.
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Post by jmei on Apr 23, 2015 9:32:16 GMT -5
But, on an even more general point, I think the underrated factor on bullpen management is the warm-up of pitchers. I think it's probably the primary reason for the "roles" pitchers play. In this case, the situation got out of hand so quickly, that it went from "probable early reliever situation, better get Breslow up" to "oh hell, this is maybe the key point in the game" in the space of a couple batters. If you warm up your key relievers every time a situation may get out of hand, you will burn them out. I think that's right, and it wasn't easy to predict that Kelly, who had cruised to that point, would suddenly lose his command, give up three straight singles (none of which was hit that hard, IIRC), and then walk in a run. That said, Kelly was about to face the heart of the order, and it was clear by the second or third hitter he faced that inning that he was struggling to throw the ball over the plate (he got behind most of them, I believe). I would have preferred Varvaro, Ogando, or Mujica in that situation since I generally prefer to throw my good relievers too early (when you know you might face high-leverage situations with runners on base) rather than too late, but I'm not too upset about it. I am still very skeptical of Breslow's ability to outperform his peripherals, but maybe that's just me being stubborn.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Apr 23, 2015 9:53:21 GMT -5
But, on an even more general point, I think the underrated factor on bullpen management is the warm-up of pitchers. I think it's probably the primary reason for the "roles" pitchers play. In this case, the situation got out of hand so quickly, that it went from "probable early reliever situation, better get Breslow up" to "oh hell, this is maybe the key point in the game" in the space of a couple batters. If you warm up your key relievers every time a situation may get out of hand, you will burn them out. I think that's right, and it wasn't easy to predict that Kelly, who had cruised to that point, would suddenly lose his command, give up three straight singles (none of which was hit that hard, IIRC), and then walk in a run. That said, Kelly was about to face the heart of the order, and it was clear by the second or third hitter he faced that inning that he was struggling to throw the ball over the plate (he got behind most of them, I believe). I would have preferred Varvaro, Ogando, or Mujica in that situation since I generally prefer to throw my good relievers too early (when you know you might face high-leverage situations with runners on base) rather than too late, but I'm not too upset about it. I am still very skeptical of Breslow's ability to outperform his peripherals, but maybe that's just me being stubborn. I dunno ... it's a decent point, but I have a hard time thinking any of those guys (except maybe Ogando) would've outperformed Breslow's results last night. The original point - you really want an elite strikeout guy in that situation - is right, but Varvaro and Mujica ain't really that. Really, you need Andrew Miller there, but he isn't walking through that door. I just don't think the difference between Breslow and the other available options is that great on paper, not really enough to get into the practice of guys warming up preemptively. And in the results from last night, it's pretty hard to say that Breslow failed (especially considering how Mujica's next inning went). The Sox have a good, solid bullpen with depth, but it's a little thin at the top. If Ogando can turn out to be elite, that would be really helpful. Matt Barnes isn't going to be a reliever soon, but I could certainly see him as a sort of ersatz deadline acquisition and spending the last two+ months in the bullpen as a big FB strikeout guy.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 23, 2015 11:38:44 GMT -5
I'd be using Breslow in the least leveraged situations at all times. He was literally my last choice to bring in there. The only way I'd be fine with Breslow there is if the bases were empty and they were up by 4. And if the situation your describing doesn't come up for 10 straight games....do you think your doing your bullpen a favor by running everyone else out there? He's not the long guy in the pen....he's a part of the (already heavily taxed) bullpen. He had given up 3 hits in 9+ innings and 8 k's prior to last night's appearance. He's on the roster...you have to use him....and thinking your only going to use him low lev situations is silly. There is a gap between that scenario and bases loaded with 0 outs. I don't trust Breslow's results so far. For instance, he has a 0.00 ERA but a 5.05 xFIP.
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Post by juanpena on Apr 23, 2015 11:49:05 GMT -5
But, on an even more general point, I think the underrated factor on bullpen management is the warm-up of pitchers. I think it's probably the primary reason for the "roles" pitchers play. In this case, the situation got out of hand so quickly, that it went from "probable early reliever situation, better get Breslow up" to "oh hell, this is maybe the key point in the game" in the space of a couple batters. If you warm up your key relievers every time a situation may get out of hand, you will burn them out. I think that's right, and it wasn't easy to predict that Kelly, who had cruised to that point, would suddenly lose his command, give up three straight singles (none of which was hit that hard, IIRC), and then walk in a run. That said, Kelly was about to face the heart of the order, and it was clear by the second or third hitter he faced that inning that he was struggling to throw the ball over the plate (he got behind most of them, I believe). I would have preferred Varvaro, Ogando, or Mujica in that situation since I generally prefer to throw my good relievers too early (when you know you might face high-leverage situations with runners on base) rather than too late, but I'm not too upset about it. I am still very skeptical of Breslow's ability to outperform his peripherals, but maybe that's just me being stubborn. Farrell hasn't announced it, but I'd bet he's trying to avoid Ogando on back-to-back days, since the one time he did that, he was much less effective the second day -- ridiculously SSS, I know, but I don't think you want to ride a guy coming back from injury too hard. And it's hard for me to think of Mujica as a clearly better option than Breslow.
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Post by mgoetze on Apr 23, 2015 11:50:45 GMT -5
The Sox have a good, solid bullpen with depth, but it's a little thin at the top. Funny thing is the projections say exactly the opposite... they have Uehara and Tazawa doing fine at the top and everyone else as replacement level or worse.
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Apr 23, 2015 13:08:04 GMT -5
It's way too early to make any significant changes, but I wonder what Kelly would be like as a closer? Could he be a true lights-out closer?
I like him a lot and I still think he has a chance to be the ace of the staff, but he can't have too many more meltdowns. However, it is useful to remember that Lester had some similar problems not all that long ago. They can be overcome.
This bullpen is rather mediocre and I think some improvement is going to be needed.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Apr 23, 2015 13:17:54 GMT -5
The Sox have a good, solid bullpen with depth, but it's a little thin at the top. Funny thing is the projections say exactly the opposite... they have Uehara and Tazawa doing fine at the top and everyone else as replacement level or worse. Sure, as far as projections can take you with relievers, that's fine, but that's not deep to me (and, as an aside, I'm worried about Koji). I think that you need three guys at the top of a bullpen to be deep at the top. If you have Koji, Tazawa, and Miller, that's great. Then you fill in the rest of the guys based on matchups, and you have a good bullpen. I think Varvaro, Ross, Breslow, and Mujica are in the "use them based on situation" type of reliever that can be successful. But I said before the season and I'll say again that this bullpen needs Ogando to be a shut-down type of reliever to be a really good pen, unless there's some surprise like Ross just turns a corner. But, look, when starters consistently can't get through the sixth, you're going to blow games. It's essentially inevitable. Even if they had someone like Miller, he probably wouldn't have been warmed up to come in when Breslow came in ...
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Post by okin15 on Apr 23, 2015 14:03:11 GMT -5
The bullpen will probably look phenomenal as soon as they aren't being asked to go 3-4 innings per game. I wouldn't be surprised if Kelly was a phenomenal reliever, but I don't think that helps us in the short run, as he's probably better than the next guy in line as a starter. Frustrating our starter's ineffectiveness is that the guy you'd most likely replace -- Masterson -- has been the best pitcher so far (SSS).
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Apr 23, 2015 16:13:43 GMT -5
The bullpen will probably look phenomenal as soon as they aren't being asked to go 3-4 innings per game. I wouldn't be surprised if Kelly was a phenomenal reliever, but I don't think that helps us in the short run, as he's probably better than the next guy in line as a starter. Frustrating our starter's ineffectiveness is that the guy you'd most likely replace -- Masterson -- has been the best pitcher so far (SSS). Is that going to happen at some point? Five and six inning starts are pretty normal these days even with good rotations... It'd never happen, but does anyone else think that putting Matt Barnes in a roll where he pitches two or three innings out of the big league bullpen a couple times a week would be beneficial for all parties?
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Post by klostrophobic on Apr 23, 2015 17:07:05 GMT -5
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Post by jmei on Apr 23, 2015 18:07:39 GMT -5
FYI: MLB.tv is apparently 35% off for college students.
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Post by mgoetze on Apr 23, 2015 18:31:38 GMT -5
Why was the Rays catcher standing behind the line rather than in front of it? Oh well, I'll take that gift anytime.
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Post by mgoetze on Apr 23, 2015 18:40:21 GMT -5
Clay's BABIP luck is pretty much picking up where it left off.
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Post by rafael on Apr 23, 2015 18:43:16 GMT -5
Why the hell is Craig batting before Bogaerts?
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Post by charliezink16 on Apr 23, 2015 18:45:44 GMT -5
FYI: MLB.tv is apparently 35% off for college students. wut. Thank you...
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Apr 23, 2015 19:29:27 GMT -5
Buchholz has looked great
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Post by philarhody on Apr 23, 2015 19:30:30 GMT -5
Clay's cutter has slider like tilt tonight. Really good pitch.
It's crazy to think of all the different plus offerings we've seen from this guy over the years.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 23, 2015 19:34:53 GMT -5
Is it just me or is Odorizzi getting every close strike call and Buccholz getting hardly any?
Buccholz will be lucky to get through 6 with his pitch count because of it.
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Post by theburn on Apr 23, 2015 19:38:16 GMT -5
Ugh
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ianrs
Veteran
Posts: 2,421
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Post by ianrs on Apr 23, 2015 19:38:49 GMT -5
Betts is having the worst BABIP luck.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Apr 23, 2015 19:39:34 GMT -5
Is it just me or is Odorizzi getting every close strike call and Buccholz getting hardly any? Buccholz will be lucky to get through 6 with his pitch count because of it. Its not just you.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 23, 2015 19:48:33 GMT -5
Except against Souza, who should be kicked out.
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Post by ibsmith85 on Apr 23, 2015 20:18:32 GMT -5
Man, the automatic 3-0 called strike really irritates me.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Apr 23, 2015 20:18:33 GMT -5
God I hate the Gentleman's strike call.
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