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4/21-4/23 Red Sox @ Rays Series Thread
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 23, 2015 23:05:58 GMT -5
A couple of early observations: At first sight this looks like a .500 team. It has scored basically the same number of runs as its opponents, and it OPS is pretty much identical to that of its opponents. But if you dig deeper, I think there are reasons for optimism. On the offensive side they are in the middle of the pack in strikeouts but lead the league in walks; only the white-hot Royals even come close to the Red Sox K/BB ratio. Similarly on the pitching side, they are also among the league leaders in K/BB ratio. I think K and BB statistics are probably more predictive statistics than runs or OPS. Major League hitters do get hits off good pitches and they do make outs on bad ones. These random chaotic effects -- representing the variability in human performance -- can dominate a small sample, but given enough time, they will tend to normalize. Thus, what many of us think we are seeing -- Red Sox hitters and pitchers controlling the zone better than their opponents, but still being outhit by them -- is probably correct and will normalize over time. (I think the best way to look at this is imagine losing a close basketball game on a night in which your opponent went 20 for 20 from the foul line or hit 2/3 of its three point shots. You weren't exactly unlucky -- the other team played well -- but, in a predictive sense, you played in a way that, all other things being equal, would suggest that you would be more likely to win the next meeting.) Other thoughts: I can't wait for Rusney Castillo to get healthy. I didn't like the trade for Craig or the signing of Sandoval, and I still don't. Mookie Betts is in a slump, but even in a slump, he still adds enough with the glove and on the bases (and picking up the occasional walk) to be helpful. He'll come around. I'm less confident in Xander Bogaerts, at least in the short term. I was encouraged by his improved K/BB rates, but they seem to have cratered lately. While I still have confidence in the long-term prognosis, I fear he may "get it" just in time to collect a big contract via free agency. I think the pitching staff will ultimately be "good enough" to provide the opportunity for October baseball. Looking at the early season performances of Jon Lester, Cole Hamels and Jordan Zimmerman, I am even more convinced that, for all its risks, the Red Sox approach was the right one. In the post-PED era, you need to develop at least half of your pitching staff internally; signing free agent pitchers is too expensive and risky. Finally, I still see this as a "semi-bridge" year. I think the team will be good enough to at least compete for a wild card, which means the Sox will be playing meaningful baseball this September and possibly October. I also think that the team has sufficient young, athletic talent, that by 2016 or 2017 at the latest, they could field a really talented, athletic, good club. However, I don't really see them as a strong threat to win it all this year -- and I would prefer they didn't pay a high price in future talent for the sake of possibly winning it all this year. I still see this as a team that is a year or two away from where it wants to be. Well said. This is pretty much where I'm at. I think this is still the 84-78 team that I think they are, although there's still room to be the 90-72 team that sneaks a way with a division title or the 87-75 team that grabs the second wild card spot and has a one day stay in the post-season. They will do better offensively. It's just a matter of time when the weather warms up and Betts BA shoots up, and Papi hits better (although I think we'll see his BA drop into the .240s this year, Napoli hits better, Sandoval hits better, and I do think Xander will eventually figure it out, but I'm not sold on it being this year either, although the light could easily go on. Hanley will continue to have a monster year and I think they'll receive an injection of energy from Castillo and eventually Swihart. The starting pitching won't make it as is. I think eventually we'll see Brian Johnson and later on Eduardo Rodriguez for when Buchholz and/or Kelly get injured, and Masterson's struggles take him out of the rotation. Possibly down the road, the Sox do sacrifice one of their young lefties (Owens or Johnson I would think) for a rental - perhaps a real ace like Cueto. With the rotation's failure to record any outs in the 7th inning, that puts a ton of pressure on the bullpen, and with the lack of K power, the bullpen will have its issues. So the team will basically be strong offensively and an adventure (or misadventure) from the pitching side, meaning the Sox aren't built to go deep into the post-season. I think that Cherington has a strong plan in place to make the Sox the team to beat in the East for the rest of the decade. I honestly think, if the Sox hang onto their elite prospects, that the Sox lineup will eventually feature Betts, Margot, Moncada, Bogaerts, Devers, and Swihart in the first six spots of the lineup. I also think that Rodriguez will impact the pitching staff, and the hope is that in a few years Ball and Kopech are forcing the issues in the rotation. I also hope the Sox can find a college pitcher in this draft not too far away who can be a front-line starting pitchers a few years from now. Like DCSox fan, I think 2015 is ultimately a competitive bridge year for a team that won't be seriously contending for a Championship until after Ortiz is retired.
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Post by bookiemetts on Apr 24, 2015 0:08:25 GMT -5
This. It needs to come out and play. Too much RISPy business. Again? They have 3 hits. It's not RISP. It's just hitting. Most of it seems to be BABIP too. There are a lot of guys on the team right now rocking some pretty low BABIPs. The only "starters" with BABIPs higher than their career averages are Pablo, X and Hanigan barely. I remember a few days ago seeing the league leaders in batted ball speed and both Mookie and Hanley were in the top 5, and don't have much to show for it. Mookie: .213 Pedroia: .267 Papi: .206 Hanley: .268 Pablo: .350 Napoli: .229 Victorino: .179 Xander: .366 Hanigan: .273
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Apr 24, 2015 0:23:46 GMT -5
The bats are going to start cranking and we will get some positive consistency from the starters. I'm not enthralled with our relief crew but we do have options there in AAA and it's not that bad. I don't see much in terms of shut down relievers like we've had in the past though. We do have tons of pitching depth compared to most teams.
The hitters are going to put numbers on the board. It's just a matter of time. Betts has done well on the bases and in the OF and we all know he has not been lucky with hits dropping in. With his speed, contact rates and plate disciplinee balls are going to start dropping and he's going to get on base and make us forget about Ellsbury's non 2011 years. Panda turning into a complete singles hitter is a surprise. Castillo and others should help with the pop. This team should be among the top 3-4 in the league in HR I would think but we aren't seeing it yet.
But most importantly, we do see at least some solid starts from Kelly, Porcello and Buchholz...etc. Buchholz looks healthier than he has been recently to me. I think we are fine and don't even consider this a semi bridge year. We are in it to win it!
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Apr 24, 2015 0:32:44 GMT -5
From what I've seem of JBJ, I really think he has made the needed adjustments. I think I'd rather have him than Castillo at least in the next 1-2 weeks.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,857
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Post by nomar on Apr 24, 2015 6:43:31 GMT -5
From what I've seem of JBJ, I really think he has made the needed adjustments. I think I'd rather have him than Castillo at least in the next 1-2 weeks. Completely disagree. JBJ is on the other end of the spectrum, he's getting a lot of BABIP luck. He's got a .089 ISO, 4.9% BB rate, and an OPS under .800. His BABIP is .391. He hasn't improved much in my eyes.
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Post by mgoetze on Apr 24, 2015 7:43:07 GMT -5
A lot of discussion about BABIP and luck here. Keep in mind, guys, in the long run BABIP for hitters is more skill- than luck-based. Of course like everything else it is subject to small sample size variations. But saying that a hitter's BABIP is automatically going to regress is wrong, even if it's below .200. (Which is not to say that I think Betts is a true-talent sub-.200 guy, just that some other players might be.) And yes it definitely takes longer to stabilize than K and BB rates.
My view: our starting pitchers have done very well (SIERAs of 2.63, 3.38, 3.25, 5.22, 3.78), but they have run afoul of bad clustering luck. You need look no further than game 2 of this series, where a 1.000 BABIP in a sample of 3 consective batted balls killed us (with a little help from the ump who called a walk on 2 balls and 2 strikes). Our bullpen has been doing better than expected (at least for me, because I didn't expect much.)
The offense, on the other hand, has been truly disappointing. Here's how our starting 9 are doing, season-to-date wOBA minus preseason projection:
Hanigan +43 Pedroia +25 Bogaerts +13 Ramirez +6 Sandoval -48 Ortiz -60 Betts -70 Nava/Victorino -84 Napoli -103
Ouch. 1 or 2 people having a slump, no problem. 5 people having a slump makes it a true miracle to still be above .500.
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Post by Guidas on Apr 24, 2015 8:13:41 GMT -5
Again. And yes, RISP is a function of hitting (and getting on base) we get that. Small sample, but to date Sox are 27th in ML in Ave and OBP with RISP, and 17th overall offensively in OPS. Stirling performance by Buchholz tonight aside, if the starters continue to give up 4+ runs a game they have to hit and plate runs. That's how this team is supposedly built. It's early but the pythag and the nearly 2 unearned runs per win both showing that this is more of a .500/sub-.500 team so far. This will continue unless the staff suddenly has more nights like tonight and/or more guys besides Hanley, Pedroia, Panda, and Xander start getting on base, and crossing the plate more frequently. Frustrating as hell watching so many wasted opportunities. They've had the guys in position to go ahead or even take over games. They just aren't capitalizing yet. There were at least 3 fly ball outs that would have either been homers or doubles in Fenway tonight. Mookie isn't going to bat under .200 because a .200 BABIP is freakishly low. It's not like he's not hitting the ball well. Papi's BABIP is .189. Hanley's BABIP is .222. Pedroia's is .267. The only ones who will regress is Holt's obviously. Sandoval and Bogaerts have high BABIPs, but not outrageous. Also, the entire starting rotation has ERA's over their FIPs, some significantly. The team xFIP for starters is 3.66 before tonight. Their ERA is 5.71. Despite all of this bad luck that is certain to regress, they're still tied for first and have a 9-7 record. Agree with all of this in the mean. The hitters just need to start finding some holes and the pitchers - well, I'm still not convinced, but if they can hold the opposing teams to 4 or fewer runs, things should improve. Just damned frustrating to watch them leave so many runners on second and third.
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Post by theburn on Apr 24, 2015 8:35:41 GMT -5
Anyone here any word on when Rusney will be able to play again? Anxious to see him called up, about tired of victorino Mike Hazen said yesterday that Rusney's still about ten days away from game action.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 24, 2015 8:50:18 GMT -5
A lot of discussion about BABIP and luck here. Keep in mind, guys, in the long run BABIP for hitters is more skill- than luck-based. Of course like everything else it is subject to small sample size variations. But saying that a hitter's BABIP is automatically going to regress is wrong, even if it's below .200. (Which is not to say that I think Betts is a true-talent sub-.200 guy, just that some other players might be.) And yes it definitely takes longer to stabilize than K and BB rates. However, the players we're talking about (Betts, Papi, Hanley, Pedroia, Napoli) are all hitting the ball well enough and have a track record. Betts' BABIP should settle in around .330 at the very minimum because of the hard contact and his speed. I'd like to see his k-rate get to 10%, but he's still a .280 hitter with an expected BABIP. It's not like I'm b----ing about Victorino and Craig's low BABIP. They can't hit. I don't really care about the catchers either. To put this into perspective, Ryan Hannigan's BABIP is 4th on the team at .273. That's ridiculous. Overall, the team is at .264. The best news is that the team's walk rate is absurdly high (10.7% as a team!) and their k-rate is pretty decent at 18%.
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Post by mgoetze on Apr 24, 2015 9:01:03 GMT -5
However, the players we're talking about (Betts, Papi, Hanley, Pedroia, Napoli) are all hitting the ball well enough and have a track record. Sure. But it still doesn't hurt to be a bit more careful in your reasoning, especially because "Hitter BABIP = luck" is something that gets thrown around way too often. As far as hitting well enough, I agree about Betts, Hanley and Pedroia. Betts' problem, especially, is not what happens when he makes contact, it's that he's chasing stuff he can't make contact on. Ortiz and Napoli, I'm not so sure. I remember a couple of balls that Big Papi hit that just looked like sac flies, except there was noone on base, and he is still affected more than most by the infield shift.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Apr 24, 2015 9:02:21 GMT -5
It's pretty small sample size on JBJ though still. From watching his AB a little ( I admit I have seen very few recently ), he appeared to be not over swinging as much. Taking the ball opposite field some. For those of you who have actually seen more of his AB is he making appropriate adjustments?
Edit: Regarding Mookie, he is a plus 4 DRS so far in CF in only 130 innings, after being a plus 3 last year. It's early but as good as JBJ was last year, his DRS in 949 innings was 14. No doubt that was great but so far Mookie has been right on pace even in his early exposure to CF. My impression is the Mookie will be a consistent plus defender in CF going forward.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 24, 2015 9:12:55 GMT -5
However, the players we're talking about (Betts, Papi, Hanley, Pedroia, Napoli) are all hitting the ball well enough and have a track record. Sure. But it still doesn't hurt to be a bit more careful in your reasoning, especially because "Hitter BABIP = luck" is something that gets thrown around way too often. As far as hitting well enough, I agree about Betts, Hanley and Pedroia. Betts' problem, especially, is not what happens when he makes contact, it's that he's chasing stuff he can't make contact on. Ortiz and Napoli, I'm not so sure. I remember a couple of balls that Big Papi hit that just looked like sac flies, except there was noone on base, and he is still affected more than most by the infield shift. Ortiz' is at .189 which is 80-90 points below his projection.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 24, 2015 9:14:26 GMT -5
It's pretty small sample size on JBJ though still. From watching his AB a little ( I admit I have seen very few recently ), he appeared to be not over swinging as much. Taking the ball opposite field some. For those of you who have actually seen more of his AB is he making appropriate adjustments? I'm just glad he's showing that he's not completely broken like he was last year, when he couldn't hit at all after he was sent down. But so far, that's all he has shown to me.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Apr 24, 2015 9:20:22 GMT -5
It's pretty small sample size on JBJ though still. From watching his AB a little ( I admit I have seen very few recently ), he appeared to be not over swinging as much. Taking the ball opposite field some. For those of you who have actually seen more of his AB is he making appropriate adjustments? I'm just glad he's showing that he's not completely broken like he was last year, when he couldn't hit at all after he was sent down. But so far, that's all he has shown to me. He doesn't have to hit that well to be a productive major league player right? If he becomes a .250 hitting , .700 OPS guy a lot of teams would take that. I think he's on his way.
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nomar
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Posts: 10,857
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Post by nomar on Apr 24, 2015 9:26:07 GMT -5
I'm just glad he's showing that he's not completely broken like he was last year, when he couldn't hit at all after he was sent down. But so far, that's all he has shown to me. He doesn't have to hit that well to be a productive major league player right? If he becomes a .250 hitting , .700 OPS guy a lot of teams would take that. I think he's on his way. I don't think he'd OPS .700 at this point. I'm glad he's getting hits but he's still a far cry from the hitter he used to be.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 24, 2015 9:28:01 GMT -5
I'm just glad he's showing that he's not completely broken like he was last year, when he couldn't hit at all after he was sent down. But so far, that's all he has shown to me. He doesn't have to hit that well to be a productive major league player right? If he becomes a .250 hitting , .700 OPS guy a lot of teams would take that. I think he's on his way. Right. The most encouraging thing for me is the k-rate. It's 16.4%. Last year in AAA it was 26.1% and in the majors, it was 28.6%.
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Post by jrffam05 on Apr 24, 2015 9:28:17 GMT -5
I'm just glad he's showing that he's not completely broken like he was last year, when he couldn't hit at all after he was sent down. But so far, that's all he has shown to me. He doesn't have to hit that well to be a productive major league player right? If he becomes a .250 hitting , .700 OPS guy a lot of teams would take that. I think he's on his way. Not when you could pay Victorino 13M to OPS 472. I hate to be as down on Vic as I currently am, I'm really rooting for this guy to put it together again, but it's not looking good. He has time, Castillo has to be healthy or Bradley needs to sustain betting success in AAA, but I'm starting to come to terms that we may need to sell low on him. I'm also waiting on Napoli to go on a tear. He is actually striking out less than he has in the past, but it just seems he isn't hitting the ball with any authority.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 24, 2015 9:34:51 GMT -5
It's fair to say that neither Craig nor Victorino has done anything to either help the team or make them in any way tradeable. They're probably less tradeable now. They're both below replacement level so far, as I expected. The only reason I'm not screaming about it is because Castillo is hurt. As soon as he's back, something has got to give.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Apr 24, 2015 10:04:37 GMT -5
A couple of early observations: At first sight this looks like a .500 team. It has scored basically the same number of runs as its opponents, and it OPS is pretty much identical to that of its opponents. But if you dig deeper, I think there are reasons for optimism. On the offensive side they are in the middle of the pack in strikeouts but lead the league in walks; only the white-hot Royals even come close to the Red Sox K/BB ratio. Similarly on the pitching side, they are also among the league leaders in K/BB ratio. I think K and BB statistics are probably more predictive statistics than runs or OPS. Major League hitters do get hits off good pitches and they do make outs on bad ones. These random chaotic effects -- representing the variability in human performance -- can dominate a small sample, but given enough time, they will tend to normalize. Thus, what many of us think we are seeing -- Red Sox hitters and pitchers controlling the zone better than their opponents, but still being outhit by them -- is probably correct and will normalize over time. (I think the best way to look at this is imagine losing a close basketball game on a night in which your opponent went 20 for 20 from the foul line or hit 2/3 of its three point shots. You weren't exactly unlucky -- the other team played well -- but, in a predictive sense, you played in a way that, all other things being equal, would suggest that you would be more likely to win the next meeting.) Other thoughts: I can't wait for Rusney Castillo to get healthy. I didn't like the trade for Craig or the signing of Sandoval, and I still don't. Mookie Betts is in a slump, but even in a slump, he still adds enough with the glove and on the bases (and picking up the occasional walk) to be helpful. He'll come around. I'm less confident in Xander Bogaerts, at least in the short term. I was encouraged by his improved K/BB rates, but they seem to have cratered lately. While I still have confidence in the long-term prognosis, I fear he may "get it" just in time to collect a big contract via free agency. I think the pitching staff will ultimately be "good enough" to provide the opportunity for October baseball. Looking at the early season performances of Jon Lester, Cole Hamels and Jordan Zimmerman, I am even more convinced that, for all its risks, the Red Sox approach was the right one. In the post-PED era, you need to develop at least half of your pitching staff internally; signing free agent pitchers is too expensive and risky. Finally, I still see this as a "semi-bridge" year. I think the team will be good enough to at least compete for a wild card, which means the Sox will be playing meaningful baseball this September and possibly October. I also think that the team has sufficient young, athletic talent, that by 2016 or 2017 at the latest, they could field a really talented, athletic, good club. However, I don't really see them as a strong threat to win it all this ar -- and I would prefer they didn't pay a high price in future talent for the sake of possibly winning it all this year. I still see this as a team that is a year or two away from where it wants to be. I agree with your overall theory too. Cole Hamels guarantees squat to this team. Our prospects may turn out to be squat also. But, I want to take a much longer look at them. I see the post-Papi team as a chance to put a really solid unit togeter for quite a few years if these position players pan out. They will be relatively cheap. Which should allow us to spend our money on pitching. A team built around; Betts, Bogaerts, Swihart. Castillo will still be around. Hanley should be our DH for a long time. Moncada and Margot may be breaking in.
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Post by mgoetze on Apr 24, 2015 10:25:34 GMT -5
As far as hitting well enough, I agree about Betts, Hanley and Pedroia. Betts' problem, especially, is not what happens when he makes contact, it's that he's chasing stuff he can't make contact on. Ortiz and Napoli, I'm not so sure. I remember a couple of balls that Big Papi hit that just looked like sac flies, except there was noone on base, and he is still affected more than most by the infield shift. Ortiz' is at .189 which is 80-90 points below his projection. I'm not saying it won't go above .200. I'm just saying I haven't felt like he's been massively unlucky or anything, and the bar is set a bit higher here.
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danr
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Post by danr on Apr 24, 2015 10:44:53 GMT -5
I don't think the Sox need to trade for an ace. They have the additional starters they may need at Pawtucket. They do need to get stronger in the bullpen and I think trades will be necessary to do that.
There doesn't seem to be any charge in the bats of Craig and Victorino. This can't go on much longer.
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Post by GyIantosca on Apr 24, 2015 11:16:30 GMT -5
I agree not this season there is no reason to put up with anything. We keep boasting about depth so let's use it. I can't believe the whole team is in a slump hitting wise. Give me a break. That loss when we're up 5 to 1 really hurts. I can't believe we lost this series. How much longer does Tommy Layne stay at AAA? There's a few guys I want up here and I don't want some of these guys having long leashes.
The thing with Breslow. I don't want to pick on him but the Sox decline the option right but they risk losing him and then they say to themselves oh he will take 2 million lets get him. If he isn't good enough for his option why take him at a discount? You like him more at 2 million? So he is less effective but since we signed him for 2 instead of 4 it's makes it more justifiable? It's not just him just something that bugged me since the offseason.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Apr 24, 2015 14:44:11 GMT -5
I agree not this season there is no reason to put up with anything. We keep boasting about depth so let's use it. I can't believe the whole team is in a slump hitting wise. Give me a break. That loss when we're up 5 to 1 really hurts. I can't believe we lost this series. How much longer does Tommy Layne stay at AAA? There's a few guys I want up here and I don't want some of these guys having long leashes. The thing with Breslow. I don't want to pick on him but the Sox decline the option right but they risk losing him and then they say to themselves oh he will take 2 million lets get him. If he isn't good enough for his option why take him at a discount? You like him more at 2 million? So he is less effective but since we signed him for 2 instead of 4 it's makes it more justifiable? It's not just him just something that bugged me since the offseason. It's a much more common thing in football where there's a salary cap. But essentially the risk is lower at $2mil if you have to cut him for a Tommy Layne. Tommy Layne may be a better option now, I can't say for sure, but it's clear that the front office and coaching staff are willing to lose a couple of extra games to preserve their depth. It's frustrating for us fans in the short run as we can say 'Tommy Layne would have gotten that guy out!' and we may be right, but Cherrington is very patient in a city where it's difficult to be patient. I'm sure by mid-season either Layne will be injured, ineffective or he'll be pitching on the Red Sox - just like the rest of the guys. In Bill Ben we trust.
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Post by jmei on Apr 24, 2015 15:28:31 GMT -5
Ortiz' is at .189 which is 80-90 points below his projection. I'm not saying it won't go above .200. I'm just saying I haven't felt like he's been massively unlucky or anything, and the bar is set a bit higher here. BABIP regression is not just "did he hit rockets but just at defenders," though. The difference between a can of corn fly ball and a screaming line drive is a difference of millisecond and centimeters, and balls in play are a relatively infrequent enough phenomenon that they are easily skewed in small samples. As such, the fact that guys like Napoli and Ortiz have super low LD% to date doesn't necessarily mean that we should expect less BABIP regression. Even though it seems like LD% should be fairly stable, it's one of the most volatile stats out there, and I'm fairly confident that velo off the bat is fairly volatile as well (at least in a three-week sample). For guys with the track record they have, I'm not concerned at all. For Victorino and Craig, it's a little more worrying since they're coming off year+ stretches of being unable to hit the ball with any authority. But even with them, you regress to the mean. You could make the same arguments about Sizemore last year, and almost immediately after he got released, he went on a high-BABIP streak that made his year-end stats almost respectable.
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Post by mgoetze on Apr 24, 2015 16:36:09 GMT -5
For guys with the track record they have, I'm not concerned at all. I am concerned, but not on BABIP alone, of course. Mostly I am concerned because Ortiz is making contact less often than he ever has in his career, despite swinging at fewer pitches than ever before. 2014: 46.3 Swing%, 81.7 Contact% 2015: 38.8 Swing%, 71.6 Contact%
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