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Post by jimed14 on Apr 27, 2015 12:32:09 GMT -5
So even though i couldn't read it, what i'm taking from what you're saying is that even if the pitcher gives up 5 runs by the 5th inning but has only thrown 35 pitches etc, that he should be left in because he could still be productive going forward in the game? Well yes, when every pitcher in the bullpen is on pace to throw 80+ innings each.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 27, 2015 12:44:30 GMT -5
I hope Farrell picks an alternate closer on days when Uehara should absolutely not be used, since he needs to have the closer role defined in stone.
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Post by Guidas on Apr 27, 2015 13:00:29 GMT -5
I've always been a big fan of the "two headed closer" - was actually thinking that this is what might've happened had the Sox signed Miller and took Papelbon back in a Hamels deal to defray the prospect cost going the other way (or if Phils ate a chunk of cash), and then using Papelbon for the 8th and as an alternate night closer when Miller was unavailable so Pap's option wouldn't vest.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 27, 2015 13:00:38 GMT -5
Speier seems to be missing the opportunity to educate people in 108 Stitches about BABIP and FIP/SIERA. Instead of focusing on unearned runs and ERA like the rest of the negative nancys, maybe he could bring up how excellent BB/K rates are for both the batters and pitchers. Miley is really the only real concern in the rotation at this point, and it's still only 4 starts.
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Post by mgoetze on Apr 27, 2015 13:08:59 GMT -5
So even though i couldn't read it, what i'm taking from what you're saying is that even if the pitcher gives up 5 runs by the 5th inning but has only thrown 35 pitches etc, that he should be left in because he could still be productive going forward in the game? Yes, the research shows that runs allowed are not predictive at all - a pitcher is expected to do exactly as well as we would expect him to in a fresh start, modified only by the times through the order penalty. Ks, BBs, and HRs are mildly predictive. If a pitcher has given up a lot of walks and HRs without corresponding strikeouts you might expect him to do just a little worse than you otherwise would for the rest of the game, but not dramatically so. In the case of Miley yesterday, of course, the win probability when he was hooked was already so low that hooking him was stupid anyway. And giving up a lot of runs is usually more a function of BABIP and clustering luck. But on the flip side, hooking Kelly after he had accrued 7 strikeout to only one walk was absolutely the wrong thing to do.
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Post by justinp123 on Apr 27, 2015 13:25:58 GMT -5
I do agree that if a pitcher is pitching well and hits a rough patch, that he should be allowed to try and work through it.
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Post by jrffam05 on Apr 27, 2015 13:32:27 GMT -5
I hope Farrell picks an alternate closer on days when Uehara should absolutely not be used, since he needs to have the closer role defined in stone. You forgot to use italics.
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Post by GyIantosca on Apr 27, 2015 13:38:36 GMT -5
Iforgot to mention this but is Miley out of shape? Is this a product of his conditioning.
To me this team needs three moves. RF Holt for now is good but you need him for his versatility,so as soon as Castillo is healthy bring him up. Second lets get Layne back up to help pen and third give Barnes a shot because I would rather have Johnson and Rodriguez but they need more innings . Demote maybe Miley if this keeps up. Just a spot start .listen it too early for anything crazy so I am thinking what we have here. Just think we are 10-9 and tied for first. So that tells you about this division.
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Post by mgoetze on Apr 27, 2015 14:02:13 GMT -5
Gordon Edes @gordonedes · 43m43 minutes ago
4/27 vs. TOR: Betts CF, Pedroia 2B, Ortiz DH, Ramirez LF, Sandoval 3B, Nava 1B, Holt RF, Bogaerts SS, Hanigan C, Kelly RHP
See, I told you guys Nava wouldn't get any playing time. Also, it looks like Hembree down, Wright up? If so, terrible move, Wright needs time to figure out his knuckleball at AAA.
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Post by Guidas on Apr 27, 2015 14:29:27 GMT -5
Good Lord, what does Wright add to this team right now? Is Layne hurt or used up, or is Farrell now anticipating 2nd inning hooks just because it's his new managerial inefficiency?
Win em all.
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Post by mgoetze on Apr 27, 2015 14:33:02 GMT -5
Is Layne hurt or used up, Layne last pitched one inning three days ago, which is why I predicted he would be up.
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Post by Guidas on Apr 27, 2015 14:51:54 GMT -5
Nutty.
Also, looks like you were half-right on Nava - sounds like Farrell is reluctantly starting him (Napoli under the weather).
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Post by mgoetze on Apr 27, 2015 14:57:31 GMT -5
It strikes me that RRLRLLLRR is rather out of character for Farrell. But I guess keeping Bogaerts down is the overriding principle.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Apr 27, 2015 15:01:51 GMT -5
Jesus UZR took a dump on Ramirez.
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Post by Guidas on Apr 27, 2015 15:49:06 GMT -5
Heresy alert: If Mookie is still hitting .189/.274/.297 ish (or less) at the end of this home stand, they should send him down and bring up Bradley. He will be over 100 PAs by then. The flashes are nice but that's all they've been so far this season.
OK, flame away.
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Post by blizzards39 on Apr 27, 2015 15:58:38 GMT -5
Jesus UZR took a dump on Ramirez. That's because he is horrrendous in the field. But I don't realy care. He absolutely mashes the ball. If he could only figure out a way to keep his helmet on
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danr
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Post by danr on Apr 27, 2015 16:19:15 GMT -5
If Napoli doesnt come back next year maybe Hanley should move to 1B.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Apr 27, 2015 16:24:59 GMT -5
Ks, BBs, and HRs are mildly predictive. If a pitcher has given up a lot of walks and HRs without corresponding strikeouts you might expect him to do just a little worse than you otherwise would for the rest of the game, but not dramatically so. In the case of Miley yesterday, of course, the win probability when he was hooked was already so low that hooking him was stupid anyway. And giving up a lot of runs is usually more a function of BABIP and clustering luck. This is interesting theory that has practical difficulty, at least in the case of Miley. No manager in his right mind is going to leave a guy out there who is getting pounded. He's not just managing his pitch count...he's also managing his confidence. Not to mention that you'd rather save the bullets for a better day....he's potentially wasting pitches on a 8 or 9 inning game his next start. So you may be actually needlessly involving your bullpen anyway when he is pitching well.
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Post by grandsalami on Apr 27, 2015 16:28:52 GMT -5
Jerry Crasnick ?@jcrasnick 43s43 seconds ago #RedSox, #Indians, #Mariners and #Dbacks among potential landing spots for Jarrod Saltalamacchia, says one MLB source.
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Post by jmei on Apr 27, 2015 16:39:47 GMT -5
Jerry Crasnick ?@jcrasnick 43s43 seconds ago #RedSox, #Indians, #Mariners and #Dbacks among potential landing spots for Jarrod Saltalamacchia, says one MLB source. One MLB source = his agent.
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Post by mgoetze on Apr 27, 2015 16:44:17 GMT -5
This is interesting theory that has practical difficulty, at least in the case of Miley. No manager in his right mind is going to leave a guy out there who is getting pounded. He's not just managing his pitch count...he's also managing his confidence. Not to mention that you'd rather save the bullets for a better day....he's potentially wasting pitches on a 8 or 9 inning game his next start. So you may be actually needlessly involving your bullpen anyway when he is pitching well. 1. So pulling a pitcher from the game because you don't think he can last the fourth inning is supposed to build his confidence? 2. Is there really such a huge "confidence" difference between giving up 5 runs and giving up 7? 3. These are highly paid professionals, not little leaguers. They should be able to perform regardless of what happened 5 days ago. 4. "Saving bullets"... does throwing less today really help throw more 5 days later? This runs completely contrary to the theory that pitchers need to be "stretched out".
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Apr 27, 2015 16:54:54 GMT -5
Jesus UZR took a dump on Ramirez. That's because he is horrrendous in the field. But I don't realy care. He absolutely mashes the ball. If he could only figure out a way to keep his helmet on Yeah, I'll give him more time to figure it out though. He could be 1B bound next year at this rate, but we'll see.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Apr 27, 2015 17:03:08 GMT -5
1. So pulling a pitcher from the game because you don't think he can last the fourth inning is supposed to build his confidence? 2. Is there really such a huge "confidence" difference between giving up 5 runs and giving up 7? 3. These are highly paid professionals, not little leaguers. They should be able to perform regardless of what happened 5 days ago. 4. "Saving bullets"... does throwing less today really help throw more 5 days later? This runs completely contrary to the theory that pitchers need to be "stretched out". I said it has practical difficulty. If I am understanding you correctly, you are literally packaging pitching management in one inning samples. No matter what happens....he can still pitch because the next inning...because statisically everything up to that point means nothing. Bullspit. I mean why don't you just say to all your pitchers at the start of the game....ever starter throws 105 pitches and I don't care whether you give up 15 runs or 1 run. And they are professionals..but they are facing the best hitters on the planet. I would no more ask a professional pitcher to embarrass himself on the public stage than I would ask 16 year old driver to start on the front row of the Daytona 500. There are real world implications to maganing people and resources.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Apr 27, 2015 17:08:33 GMT -5
Really hope Kelly keeps it going. He's really impressed me so far, and his raw numbers would be great too if Breslow didn't come in and allow 3 of his runners to score last start before getting an out. If he really takes a step forward this year that would be huge for the franchise. Go Joe
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Post by mgoetze on Apr 27, 2015 17:14:25 GMT -5
I mean why don't you just say to all your pitchers at the start of the game....ever starter throws 105 pitches and I don't care whether you give up 15 runs or 1 run. Yes, why don't you? I would, especially with a bad bullpen like the Sox have. So anyway, no tarp and no baseball game? Weird combination.
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