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7/7-7/8 Red Sox vs. Marlins Series Thread
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Post by soxcentral on Jul 9, 2015 13:26:34 GMT -5
I see no problem with Ortiz as an occasional 1B option, maybe not every day though. The questions would be does he hurt us less on D than Hanley in LF, and does DeAza in the lineup help more than Napoli? The first I don't know, the 2nd is a clear yes right now.
And until Ortiz sustains a hot bat, I'm not worried about losing his DH skills for a couple weeks if he pulls a hammy. Do what's best for the team.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 9, 2015 13:35:56 GMT -5
I'm with danr here, too. Much to do about nothing.
Ortiz barely plays 1b. Years ago, it was to keep him healthy. I think he would have been an acceptable 1b defensively had his career gone in that direction.
Now it's years later, he's 39, and hardly athletic. He has foot problems, and could very well embarrass himself at 1b and hurt the team.
1B is the lowest on the defensive spectrum but it can still be impactful. See Bill Buckner during the 1986 World Series, or watch what a very adept 1b (remember Doug Mentkiewicz) can do that Papi can't. Last night Teixeira made a big play that Ortiz could never make.
As danr said, these guys who have played the field who are pushing 40 have very different body types than Ortiz does, and I think Ortiz would be a candidate to break down.
Somebody mentioned Yaz as an example. Yaz did have a different body type but you might remember the only time he went on the DL was when he crashed into the wall on Aug 30, 1980 (I know the date because the first game I ever went to was the next day and Yaz couldn't play which disappointed me greatly), and he was 41 years old.
Two years later they inexplicably sent Yaz to CF at age 42. He was having an amazing season at the plate, but tailed off from an excellent season to a solid one. He said it did a number on his body.
Ortiz isn't the most tactful when he speaks, but he generally makes good sense, even if nobody wants to hear it.
I would think in an emergency situation he could play 1b, but asking him to do it on a semi-regularly basis like twice a week or so is asking for trouble.
If the Sox are doing this, this means they need to find a 1b somewhere else if they don't think Napoli can be semi-productive going forward.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 9, 2015 13:36:38 GMT -5
Per the Soxprospects twitter feed Miguel Celestino was traded to the Reds. I'm guessing Cueto and maybe Chapman coming back. According to Espinoza's agent, he and Celestino have been traded for Cueto And Moncada is the player to be named later going Cincy's way
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 9, 2015 13:38:28 GMT -5
until Ortiz sustains a hot bat Arbitrary endpoints and all, but he's been hitting very well for about a month now and at least reasonably well for a couple months. Since May 16, he's hitting .232/.335/.482 with 11 HR. (Note that he had a 3 for 31 stretch at the end of the month of May) Since June 11, he's hitting .253/.382/.571 with 9 HR. And these are with a BABIP around .215, to show that it's not that he's getting a bunch of hits to fall in.
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Post by jrffam05 on Jul 9, 2015 14:18:14 GMT -5
until Ortiz sustains a hot bat Arbitrary endpoints and all, but he's been hitting very well for about a month now and at least reasonably well for a couple months. Since May 16, he's hitting .232/.335/.482 with 11 HR. (Note that he had a 3 for 31 stretch at the end of the month of May) Since June 11, he's hitting .253/.382/.571 with 9 HR. And these are with a BABIP around .215, to show that it's not that he's getting a bunch of hits to fall in. I don't know how to do this on Fangraphs or BBRef (but I spent 10 minutes trying), but I'd love to see those stats split out by RH/LH pitching. My theory is that he has been hitting the ball great all year against RHP, and bad against LHP, and recently they have been limiting his AB against LHP or facing less LHP overall. I also remember posting earlier that his wRC+ against LHP was ~ -40ish, and today it sits at -19, so he can't be hitting lefties all that well recently
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Jul 9, 2015 16:02:45 GMT -5
Can't believe the knocks on Papi. He is NOT the problem. The problems are: 1. Napoli, despite his excellent defense, has stopped hitting ( in a way that JBJ stopped in 2014 and was sent down, despite his GG.) 2. Hanley, despite his powerful bat, is still having glove issues in LF and he can't play anywhere else. We need Hanley's bat to protect Papi, and Hanley's best position is DH. 3. We need Papi's bat. He also plays a decent 1B. But he really is BIG Papi and he can feel that big body betraying him, with already sore heels, achilles, knees, hips, lower back, wrists, elbows and stiff neck. Ichiro is a featherweight, Yaz a middleweight. Even so, their bodies slowed them and their bats. We do not want a rapid decline that needlessly wears out Papi's heavyweight body. He speaks truth, openly, always.
At 481HR, don't we want to see him hit 500 and break other records next year, and gracefully lumber off into the sunset, returning to baseball at Cooperstown? I do.
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Post by Nick Rabasco2 on Jul 9, 2015 16:11:05 GMT -5
Yeah, the lefty/righty splits on Papi this year have been drastic. He's been his usual self against RHP this year:
242 PA .274/.393/.537 wRC+ 150
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Post by Nick Rabasco2 on Jul 9, 2015 16:12:33 GMT -5
Also, TB/TOR lose despite NYY winning. Were 10 games behind TB June 20 and are now tied with them in the loss column.
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Post by benogliviesbrother on Jul 9, 2015 16:35:21 GMT -5
While I generally believe that the team is out of line to expect Ortiz to play 1B for more than inter league play because: increased risk of injury; potential embarrassment of player due to reasons previously cited; but, I also wonder if any comments from his contact negotiations come into play here:
Ortiz: "Huh? Only thirteen million? I'm one of the most valuable players in the game." Team: "Well, not exactly. You are a great hitter, but offer zero value as a fielder." Ortiz: "Because I'm a DH." Team: "Exactly."
I can see some derivative of that discussion sticking in his craw and influencing his feelings on the matter.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jul 9, 2015 16:59:40 GMT -5
Also, TB/TOR lose despite NYY winning. Were 10 games behind TB June 20 and are now tied with them in the loss column. Made a bet with a coworker today I get $50 for a sweep of NY and he gets $5 otherwise.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jul 9, 2015 17:10:43 GMT -5
Also, TB/TOR lose despite NYY winning. Were 10 games behind TB June 20 and are now tied with them in the loss column. Made a bet with a coworker today I get $50 for a sweep of NY and he gets $5 otherwise. Teams just ahead of us have some tough matchups this weekend. Baltimore plays Washington TB plays Houston Toronto at KC
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Post by brianthetaoist on Jul 9, 2015 19:31:33 GMT -5
Also, TB/TOR lose despite NYY winning. Were 10 games behind TB June 20 and are now tied with them in the loss column. Made a bet with a coworker today I get $50 for a sweep of NY and he gets $5 otherwise. 10-1 odds? That's pretty good ...
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Post by benogliviesbrother on Jul 9, 2015 20:31:08 GMT -5
Winning three straight coin flips is 1 in 8.
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Post by jrffam05 on Jul 9, 2015 21:34:41 GMT -5
Also, TB/TOR lose despite NYY winning. Were 10 games behind TB June 20 and are now tied with them in the loss column. Made a bet with a coworker today I get $50 for a sweep of NY and he gets $5 otherwise. I made a bet like this in HS in 2004 when the Red Sox were down 3-1 in the alcs. It was $2 for $20. Worked out well.
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Post by mgoetze on Jul 9, 2015 22:12:18 GMT -5
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Post by jmei on Jul 9, 2015 22:49:04 GMT -5
The hardest part of using sabermetrics has always been implementation. Everyone knows all the data supporting the times through the order penalty and platoon splits and not bunting. But you need a manager who has the buy-in, the communication skills and, frankly, the cojones to implement a strategy that is "unconventional." The Pirates and the Rays, among others, have that guy. The Red Sox do not.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jul 9, 2015 23:25:05 GMT -5
Well, he must have heard you with the name-calling since he did remove Porcello before he got through the order the fourth time. Had a chance to look at that game. Reading the thread really does give a distorted impression of what went on. While Porcello did labor in the 4 th, he didn't exactly get killed. Morse's hit was legitimate, then there was a very soft liner that barely made it to the outfield up the middle, and another nice piece of hitting by Realmuto going with the pitch away and lining it to right. Next a ground ball up the middle and then Betts' complete misread of a Texas league pop for a single. No extra base hits, and a lot of ground balls including the two that ended the inning. Admittedly either of those could have caused more damage, but Sandoval made a nice play as did Porcello to help himself. Outside of that he shut Miami down. Not a spectacular outing, but much better than what he's been delivering and hardly worth the piss and vinegar I read through.
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Post by Don Caballero on Jul 10, 2015 0:13:15 GMT -5
A blundering idiot like Farrell won a World Series (facing more talented teams along the way, no less), Tampa has not and will not in the foreseeable future. I understand your point, but no need for the holier than thou name calling bit.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 10, 2015 2:26:59 GMT -5
A blundering idiot like Farrell won a World Series (facing more talented teams along the way, no less), Tampa has not and will not in the foreseeable future. I understand your point, but no need for the holier than thou name calling bit. There's an assumption here that a manager's decision-making process remains unchanged over time and is not affected by circumstances. Why would that be true? It makes perfect sense that a manager might go more "new school" when his team is playing well, and have more success communicating those decisions to his players under such circumstances. And perfect sense that he and his players might revert to "old school" tactics when they're struggling, especially if they blame the unconventional approaches for the struggles. I mean, if an NL team started hitting the pitcher 8th and immediately lost their next 5 games, most managers would abandon the experiment even if it was demonstrably true, upon careful examination, that the pitcher hitting 8th had helped the team, not hurt it. That's just human nature.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 11, 2015 17:58:36 GMT -5
A blundering idiot like Farrell won a World Series (facing more talented teams along the way, no less), Tampa has not and will not in the foreseeable future. I understand your point, but no need for the holier than thou name calling bit. Craig Breslow helped his team win a World Series and Felix Hernandez never has, so clearly Breslow is the better pitcher.
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Post by ray88h66 on Jul 11, 2015 18:12:39 GMT -5
A blundering idiot like Farrell won a World Series (facing more talented teams along the way, no less), Tampa has not and will not in the foreseeable future. I understand your point, but no need for the holier than thou name calling bit. Craig Breslow helped his team win a World Series and Felix Hernandez never has, so clearly Breslow is the better pitcher. That's silly. When the saber guys win, and they will ,you'll have some ammo. That's weak.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 11, 2015 18:17:42 GMT -5
Why is it weak? Why does a manager get credit for winning a WS in a way that relief pitcher doesn't? This isn't a rhetorical question, I'm seriously asking you to explain. Because it makes no sense to me.
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Post by ray88h66 on Jul 11, 2015 18:23:31 GMT -5
Why is it weak? Why does a manager get credit for winning a WS in a way that relief pitcher doesn't? This isn't a rhetorical question, I'm seriously asking you to explain. Because it makes no sense to me. I was talking about your Breslow/Hernandez comp. I think managers get too much credit and blame.
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