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Acquiring an Ace: FA or Trade?
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 29, 2015 16:55:02 GMT -5
For everyone saying the Sox need to move quickly on Price, it's not always that easy. Price's best option may be holding out how Scherzer did last year when he signed January 20/21st. Maybe the glut of starters on the market will change things, but you never know. I think the glut on the market changes things. If too many teams makes moves you could really decrease the amount of teams that could actually sign Price. I mean there aren't many teams that will match or beat 7 years and 210 million that Max got last year.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 29, 2015 18:06:42 GMT -5
For everyone saying the Sox need to move quickly on Price, it's not always that easy. Price's best option may be holding out how Scherzer did last year when he signed January 20/21st. Maybe the glut of starters on the market will change things, but you never know. I felt that the market for Scherzer was a lot tougher to predict, he didn't have that obvious fit besides the Nats connection to Boras. This year some big market teams are desperate for frontline pitching and are also willing to act quickly. If Dombrowski hands out a huge contract, he is likely gonna do it within the next few weeks...and then Price can take it or leave it. Would he reject the Scherzer-deal just because he might get more in january? I definitely think the Sox want to sign someone before tickets go on sale. All I'm saying is that none of us know the inner workings or what everyone's strategies are. Price & co might feel like Sox will continue to bid higher and higher the more time goes on and the more uncomfortable they get.
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brisox
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Post by brisox on Nov 29, 2015 19:09:46 GMT -5
Papi/ Price is overblown neither of these Multi- millionaires could care less about anything but winning. Papi's only issue with Price is his playoff record. The sox have one year left to cash in on his immense International Popularity , so they are going to listen to him to a degree. He also is no Clay fan as he doesn't think he is a gamer.If Clay has a fast start like he has in the past he'll be gone quickly for prospects. Price is their guy. Greinke came here . it didn't go well. Henry will give whatever $ is needed. Price doesn't cost us a pick and after Dombro essentially went against his entire FO for Kimbrel , if he trades more young talent he will have a riot on his hands. The point about overbidding is a good one, and considering the age, success in the AL east, and relative consistency, they will overbid to get him before December 10th. Brisox, I agree with everything in your post, but would need to question your source on the bolded. As I understand it, the FO did not value Margot highly because of his poor, and hardly improving splits, while Guerra was a sell-high on a popup bat. Am I wrong? Margot splits: AA vs. R .236/.288/.313 vs. L .381/.443/.746 A (adv) vs. R .244/.276/.370 vs. L .391/.451/.565 Not about one player, more about too much to give for 70 innings
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brisox
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Post by brisox on Nov 29, 2015 19:15:47 GMT -5
How could any of those comments be an opinion? I can't say more. In that case maybe u said too much As in all things , Your mileage may vary.
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Post by blizzards39 on Nov 29, 2015 20:06:00 GMT -5
Brisox, I agree with everything in your post, but would need to question your source on the bolded. As I understand it, the FO did not value Margot highly because of his poor, and hardly improving splits, while Guerra was a sell-high on a popup bat. Am I wrong? Margot splits: AA vs. R .236/.288/.313 vs. L .381/.443/.746 A (adv) vs. R .244/.276/.370 vs. L .391/.451/.565 Not about one player, more about too much to give for 70 innings 210 innings (3 years). At a more than reasonable/undervalued contract. And then more than likely get a 1rst round pick back. And in are position of greatest need.
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Post by ray88h66 on Nov 29, 2015 21:28:58 GMT -5
jmei "I mean this in the nicest possible way, but you have much less of a handle on baseball economics than you think you do." Perhaps DJ's argument is a little over simplified, but your passive aggressive response adds nothing so kindly illuminate for us, and as a senior moderator we should expect better in response to non-confrontational posts so perhaps an apology to DJ is in order? I'd agree in most cases, but jmei has a long record of fairness. I think he was trying to disagree without being disagreeable. I think Price has every reason to wait. Zimmereman signing only ups his value. Some of the other FA pitchers have to worry about the market size, Price will get his.
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Post by PedroKsBambino on Nov 29, 2015 22:35:30 GMT -5
"David Price may get Scherzer money – $30 million a year for seven years – and new Boston GM Dave Dombrowski has done everything he can to convince Red Sox ownership to look past the restrictions on massive free agent contracts and let him spend, league sources told Yahoo Sports. Neither the Chicago Cubs nor St. Louis plans to go there, though they’ll pay a pretty penny – or a couple billion a year – for their shot at Price." This us from the new article posted by Jeff Passan at Yahoo sports.http://sports.yahoo.com/news/mlb-s-market-has-changed-and-jordan-zimmermann-s-contract-is-proof-012403586-mlb.html I don't know how to interpret this statement. Is he saying DD is begging the ownership group to open the wallet or saying that he has convinced them to already?
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 29, 2015 22:59:52 GMT -5
Cueto rejects 6/120 from Diamondbacks
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Nov 30, 2015 0:39:31 GMT -5
Cueto rejects 6/120 from Diamondbacks Hard to see him getting much more than that unless he's willing to do 4-5 years.
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Post by iakovos11 on Nov 30, 2015 0:44:32 GMT -5
Maybe he's just not really into playing for Arizona
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Post by Alonzo on Nov 30, 2015 0:55:02 GMT -5
Cueto rejects 6/120 from Diamondbacks Hard to see him getting much more than that unless he's willing to do 4-5 years. Don't think he's holding out for a much better deal. Certainly a million here and there (just a few hours ago I expected him to sign a 6/135m deal if his medical reports are fine), but 6/120 is actually not too shabby, especially after what Zimmmermann took. I guess it's more like he's waiting for one of the contenders to lose out on Price/Greinke sweepstakes. He's certainly thinking us/Dodgers/Cubs/Giants I find it odd that the "lesser" arms are getting the roulette going. Thought teams and the pitchers were going to wait on Price and Greinke to sign.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 30, 2015 1:24:31 GMT -5
Definitely not sorry to see Zimmermann go elsewhere although he went for less years and money that I would have anticipated.
My concern with him off the board would be the Greinke domino effect and his not being there to be a potential fallback target for the Dodgers.
If Greinke decides to go to SF rather than LA (I'm assuming he's not interested in coming to Boston), then that puts the Dodgers in a situation of needing to sign a big-time free agent pitcher, which I think will push them heavily into the David Price sweepstakes. I can't imagine the Dodgers would lose Greinke and not get a top notch pitcher to replace him.
If that's the case then I think the Sox will need to go to an 8th year for $250 million to have a shot to get to Price and even that is a figure LA can match, and if it comes down to LA vs Boston, Price might prefer LA, the laid back place with less media and fan scrutiny.
If that's the case, then the Sox certainly know it will take at least 6 years and a good deal more than $20 million to sign Cueto - I'd guess $150 million over 6 years. And if the Sox want to go there, they have a good shot at signing him. If not Price, Greinke, or Cueto, then the Sox get shut out of the top tier of free agent pitchers and they'd be into the tier they were hoping to avoid.
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Post by akiva on Nov 30, 2015 2:50:49 GMT -5
Definitely not sorry to see Zimmermann go elsewhere although he went for less years and money that I would have anticipated. My concern with him off the board would be the Greinke domino effect and his not being there to be a potential fallback target for the Dodgers. If Greinke decides to go to SF rather than LA (I'm assuming he's not interested in coming to Boston), then that puts the Dodgers in a situation of needing to sign a big-time free agent pitcher, which I think will push them heavily into the David Price sweepstakes. I can't imagine the Dodgers would lose Greinke and not get a top notch pitcher to replace him. If that's the case then I think the Sox will need to go to an 8th year for $250 million to have a shot to get to Price and even that is a figure LA can match, and if it comes down to LA vs Boston, Price might prefer LA, the laid back place with less media and fan scrutiny. If that's the case, then the Sox certainly know it will take at least 6 years and a good deal more than $20 million to sign Cueto - I'd guess $150 million over 6 years. And if the Sox want to go there, they have a good shot at signing him. If not Price, Greinke, or Cueto, then the Sox get shut out of the top tier of free agent pitchers and they'd be into the tier they were hoping to avoid. To be fair, I could see them examining trades before turning to Shark etc. I agree with the sentiment, but alternatively I could see the Dodgers not being outbid on Greinke and SF turning to Cueto. If either wants Price they'd probably need to be within 10 million of Boston's bid which stands to be significant. The longer this drags on the less I favor Dombrowski's chances of getting his man though.
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Post by notguilty on Nov 30, 2015 6:50:03 GMT -5
I'm going to add a dissonant voice here and just say this whole "ace" obsession is excessive and will get the Red Sox in trouble. I'm tired of coming last too, but man, the solution to this is not giving 7/230 or whatever other crazy amount to David Price. This is really the definition of insanity. Doing the same crazy thing over and over again, for pretty much the same results. the Free Agent marketplace is the worst place to try to build a team. Those deals just don't work. As good as he is, David Price will be an albatross on somebody's payroll. I look at Cano, Ellsbury, Hanley, and I just shake my head. Even a pitcher like Tanaka doesn't look so hot now.
In the end, the best argument for this is something like "it's not my money", or "baseball is awash in dollars anyway". The first is true (John Henry will do whatever he wants), the second looks true now, but is really a bubble. Where exactly is that money coming from? Viewership? The price of live sports? Even the TV companies that are financing this are starting to realize it's money down the drain. Direc TV doesn't want to carry the Dodgers, Comcast holding off on carrying the YES network, we'll start seeing more of that.
Anyway, Dombrowski can give a crazy deal to Price. Whatever. Where I'll really get annoyed is if/when they start talking of payroll constraints or anything like that, in extending the kids or getting that extra piece. Because once you give a $200m contract, you're really saying you have no constraints. The thing with spending is once you start doing it, you have to keep doing it. That's how the Dodgers got to $300m with (almost) nothing to show for it. Other than a thousands of Direc TV customers not able to watch them because their channel is too expensive to carry.
I really fear this team is heading the way of the yankees/Tigers/ to be honest. Don't get me wrong, there are some pretty good youngsters here. But even if Betts/Bogaerts/Bradley/Erod et al pan out, you'll have half the team at least composed of a bunch of underperforming vets on silly contracts that are constraining team flexibility. That is a terrible outcome.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Nov 30, 2015 8:14:17 GMT -5
Vets: Pedroia (underpaid), Ortiz (retiring), Buchholz (last year and team friendly deal), then Porcello, Sandoval, and Hanley who are on big deals.
I don't think that's an outrageous amount of overpaid vets. We've definitely seen way worse from the Yankees and even ourselves before. As long as our farm is strong, I'm not going to worry about whatever payroll we choose to roll with.
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Post by akiva on Nov 30, 2015 8:49:08 GMT -5
Betts, Bogaerts, Swihart, Shaw, Rodriguez, Bradley, even Holt. That's quite a youthful, inexpensive core right there. And better still there's much more behind it.
People compare Price to other players on huge contracts, but often miss the mark. Price isn't a question mark, he's a known commodity in the very market the Red Sox compete in. He has a career of being lights out in AL East and that's exactly what Boston needs.
Cherrington's panic buying of Sandoval and Porcello are distressing and prohibitive, but are unlikely to be repeated by Dombrowski. Certainly Price is a different beast all together.
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Post by notguilty on Nov 30, 2015 9:50:03 GMT -5
Betts, Bogaerts, Swihart, Shaw, Rodriguez, Bradley, even Holt. That's quite a youthful, inexpensive core right there. And better still there's much more behind it. People compare Price to other players on huge contracts, but often miss the mark. Price isn't a question mark, he's a known commodity in the very market the Red Sox compete in. He has a career of being lights out in AL East and that's exactly what Boston needs. Cherrington's panic buying of Sandoval and Porcello are distressing and prohibitive, but are unlikely to be repeated by Dombrowski. Certainly Price is a different beast all together. The point on the youthful and inexpensive core is true. It's a good one. What's behind it, we'll have to see; between DD's trades (you'll agree he'll probably trade a few more guys, though maybe not now), (potentially) giving away compensation draft picks, the lack of picks on the international front for a year or two, and some prospects maybe not panning out, things can get tight pretty fast. Pedroia (I like him, but he's no longer cheap for what he offers], Sandoval, Hanley, Porcello, Castillo (maybe), Buchholz, that's a lot of cash in relatively uncertain performance there. On the second point, it's a matter of perspective I suppose. Cherington's moves on Sandoval/Hanley/Porcello were terrible (I still have some hope on Porcello), but there was a need for a third basemen and additional power in the lineup. Just like we have a need for front line starting pitching now and may make another terrible move to fix it. There's always a good justification. I just think dropping a boatload on Price is a terrible way to go about it [if it hampers your payroll]. If the payroll is no problem, then this is really all moot. Now this belongs to the other thread, but my limit is probably $210m. Above that, the albatross factor really picks up, I think.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Nov 30, 2015 9:57:12 GMT -5
I'm going to add a dissonant voice here and just say this whole "ace" obsession is excessive and will get the Red Sox in trouble. I'm tired of coming last too, but man, the solution to this is not giving 7/230 or whatever other crazy amount to David Price. This is really the definition of insanity. Doing the same crazy thing over and over again, for pretty much the same results. the Free Agent marketplace is the worst place to try to build a team. Those deals just don't work. As good as he is, David Price will be an albatross on somebody's payroll. I look at Cano, Ellsbury, Hanley, and I just shake my head. Even a pitcher like Tanaka doesn't look so hot now. In the end, the best argument for this is something like "it's not my money", or "baseball is awash in dollars anyway". The first is true (John Henry will do whatever he wants), the second looks true now, but is really a bubble. Where exactly is that money coming from? Viewership? The price of live sports? Even the TV companies that are financing this are starting to realize it's money down the drain. Direc TV doesn't want to carry the Dodgers, Comcast holding off on carrying the YES network, we'll start seeing more of that. Anyway, Dombrowski can give a crazy deal to Price. Whatever. Where I'll really get annoyed is if/when they start talking of payroll constraints or anything like that, in extending the kids or getting that extra piece. Because once you give a $200m contract, you're really saying you have no constraints. The thing with spending is once you start doing it, you have to keep doing it. That's how the Dodgers got to $300m with (almost) nothing to show for it. Other than a thousands of Direc TV customers not able to watch them because their channel is too expensive to carry. I really fear this team is heading the way of the yankees/Tigers/ to be honest. Don't get me wrong, there are some pretty good youngsters here. But even if Betts/Bogaerts/Bradley/Erod et al pan out, you'll have half the team at least composed of a bunch of underperforming vets on silly contracts that are constraining team flexibility. That is a terrible outcome. I'm with you here....If this is the way GM's work, any of us can be a GM......last year, BC simply said sign the best 3B out there, he asks, who is it? someone says Pablo, done, sign him for 100 mil. Hanley can hit, sign him for 88 mil, done. Who's the best SP in the market? Price, sign him for 250 mil, done. In a few years we'll have to plug some holes & we can't due to payroll....Everyone says we have a stacked farm system, which I admit it's good, but after the top 4 or 5, it gets thin & our top 4 or 5 haven't played above low a ball. So maybe 2 or 3 become good major leaguers. If Price doesn't accept the 7/210 which will be crippling enough, go to plan B & sign Kazmir or make a trade. No one is even guaranteeing our current "core" will continue to improve.
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Post by grandsalami on Nov 30, 2015 12:14:07 GMT -5
Jerry Crasnick @jcrasnick 2m2 minutes ago Clubs in the Johnny Cueto market believe he's looking for a $140-160M payout. That's Cole Hamels-Jon Lester territory.
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Post by grandsalami on Nov 30, 2015 12:49:06 GMT -5
Peter Gammons @pgammo 6h6 hours ago Price ex-teammates think a city he likes, the NL, being able to hit will be among factors more important than the last $$$$.
Peter Gammons @pgammo 6h6 hours ago @pgammo But never underestimate Dave Dombrowski
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Post by grandsalami on Nov 30, 2015 12:56:50 GMT -5
Julie DiCaro @juliedicaro 9m9 minutes ago #Cubs said to be 'balking' at the price for David Price. Told back up plans are 'plentiful and more than adequate.'
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Nov 30, 2015 13:17:47 GMT -5
Peter Gammons @pgammo 6h6 hours ago Price ex-teammates think a city he likes, the NL, being able to hit will be among factors more important than the last $$$$. Peter Gammons @pgammo 6h6 hours ago @pgammo But never underestimate Dave Dombrowski Yeah that's easy to say as the person not passing up on $20M. Jerry Crasnick @jcrasnick 2m2 minutes ago Clubs in the Johnny Cueto market believe he's looking for a $140-160M payout. That's Cole Hamels-Jon Lester territory. Two pitchers who are better than him. The Zimmermann signing in Detroit hurts because the major suitors for a big SP now have less options. With each passing day I get the feeling Cueto is more of a possibility, and I hate the fit in our division.
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 30, 2015 13:43:15 GMT -5
Peter Gammons @pgammo 6h6 hours ago Price ex-teammates think a city he likes, the NL, being able to hit will be among factors more important than the last $$$$. Peter Gammons @pgammo 6h6 hours ago @pgammo But never underestimate Dave Dombrowski Yeah that's easy to say as the person not passing up on $20M. I find it amazing that people actually believe these comments at all. They always say it, but in the end the player pretty much always goes with the highest bidder. Those leaks are probably from agents trying to build up their clients' character in the public eye. They mean about as much as each presidential candidates' tax plan. But people seem to take the comments as absolute facts. I mean how hard is it to make such an empty statement without naming sources which could never possibly be confirmed or denied? Actions speak louder than words.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 30, 2015 14:03:53 GMT -5
Definitely not sorry to see Zimmermann go elsewhere although he went for less years and money that I would have anticipated. My concern with him off the board would be the Greinke domino effect and his not being there to be a potential fallback target for the Dodgers. If Greinke decides to go to SF rather than LA (I'm assuming he's not interested in coming to Boston), then that puts the Dodgers in a situation of needing to sign a big-time free agent pitcher, which I think will push them heavily into the David Price sweepstakes. I can't imagine the Dodgers would lose Greinke and not get a top notch pitcher to replace him. If that's the case then I think the Sox will need to go to an 8th year for $250 million to have a shot to get to Price and even that is a figure LA can match, and if it comes down to LA vs Boston, Price might prefer LA, the laid back place with less media and fan scrutiny. If that's the case, then the Sox certainly know it will take at least 6 years and a good deal more than $20 million to sign Cueto - I'd guess $150 million over 6 years. And if the Sox want to go there, they have a good shot at signing him. If not Price, Greinke, or Cueto, then the Sox get shut out of the top tier of free agent pitchers and they'd be into the tier they were hoping to avoid. To be fair, I could see them examining trades before turning to Shark etc. I agree with the sentiment, but alternatively I could see the Dodgers not being outbid on Greinke and SF turning to Cueto. If either wants Price they'd probably need to be within 10 million of Boston's bid which stands to be significant. The longer this drags on the less I favor Dombrowski's chances of getting his man though. Yes, in that scenario it could work out for the Sox. Let's hope the Dodgers blow the Giants out of the water for Greinke. Don't know if Greinke liked being in that clubhouse, but in the past he was honest enough to say something to the affect that he would go where the highest bid was and the Dodgers certainly have the financial might to be that high bid, and I don't know if the Giants want to go as high as $200 million for a pitcher, so that would keep them out of the Price sweepstakes.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 30, 2015 14:08:58 GMT -5
I'm going to add a dissonant voice here and just say this whole "ace" obsession is excessive and will get the Red Sox in trouble. I'm tired of coming last too, but man, the solution to this is not giving 7/230 or whatever other crazy amount to David Price. This is really the definition of insanity. Doing the same crazy thing over and over again, for pretty much the same results. the Free Agent marketplace is the worst place to try to build a team. Those deals just don't work. As good as he is, David Price will be an albatross on somebody's payroll. I look at Cano, Ellsbury, Hanley, and I just shake my head. Even a pitcher like Tanaka doesn't look so hot now. In the end, the best argument for this is something like "it's not my money", or "baseball is awash in dollars anyway". The first is true (John Henry will do whatever he wants), the second looks true now, but is really a bubble. Where exactly is that money coming from? Viewership? The price of live sports? Even the TV companies that are financing this are starting to realize it's money down the drain. Direc TV doesn't want to carry the Dodgers, Comcast holding off on carrying the YES network, we'll start seeing more of that. Anyway, Dombrowski can give a crazy deal to Price. Whatever. Where I'll really get annoyed is if/when they start talking of payroll constraints or anything like that, in extending the kids or getting that extra piece. Because once you give a $200m contract, you're really saying you have no constraints. The thing with spending is once you start doing it, you have to keep doing it. That's how the Dodgers got to $300m with (almost) nothing to show for it. Other than a thousands of Direc TV customers not able to watch them because their channel is too expensive to carry. I really fear this team is heading the way of the yankees/Tigers/ to be honest. Don't get me wrong, there are some pretty good youngsters here. But even if Betts/Bogaerts/Bradley/Erod et al pan out, you'll have half the team at least composed of a bunch of underperforming vets on silly contracts that are constraining team flexibility. That is a terrible outcome. I understand why you'd hesitate, but I don't know how else the Sox drastically improve the starting pitching without gutting the farm system or giving up key major league pieces. I'm not crazy about this but sometimes you have to bite the bullet, and I think that's where the Sox are right now. David Price is not some run of the mill free agent. He's not Pablo Sandoval. This is a guy on a hall of fame path. He has very few red flags against him if any that say he can't continue his level of pitching over the next several years. The alternative is spending a bunch (but yeah, a lot less) of money on the Kazmirs of the world and hope for the best, or gut the system, or hope that Joe Kelly fulfills his Cy Young prediction and becames the next Jake Arrieta. It could happen, but I don't like the certainty of it. So what you have is perhaps a team that can win 85 - 87 games and have everything break right for them in the post-season. It can happen, but when the Sox have won before it was because they had the best team. The 2004 Sox finished behind the Yanks but if you go by RS/RA they were vastly superior to them, and in 07 and 13 the Sox had the best teams as well, so I think it increases your odds of winning when you don't have to catch lightning in a bottle.
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